MLB Previews #2 American League West

Texas Rangers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ian Kinsler 2B
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton LF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz RF
Chris Davis 1B
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Elvis Andrus SS
Julio Borbon CF

Rotation
Rich Harden
Scott Feldman
Colby Lewis
Derek Holland
Brandon McCarthy
Tommy Hunter
Matt Harrison
Dustin Nippert
Doug Mathis
Neftali Feliz

In essence, he who owns Vald Guerrero owns the AL West. After a surprising run to 87 wins last year, the Rangers are a trendy pick to unseat the Angels in 2010. This team can no doubt hit, and if Guerrero can stay healthy he'll add to Arlington's trademark offense. If Julio Borbon can maintain his OBP over the course of a full season, they'll have a great leadoff hitter to complement the power in the rest of the lineup.

The Rangers are still stacked at catcher, with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez backing up Saltalamacchia. None of those three may reach the ceiling they were once thought to have, but together they're still a respectable MLB-caliber unit. Speaking of players who never lived up to their ceiling, NCAA hit king Khalil Greene joins the team
as a utility infielder. One player who hopes to avoid the "bust" tag is future first baseman Justin Smoak, who's just the tip of the iceberg for one of the best minor league systems in baseball today.

Rich Harden is always a great pickup if he can stay healthy, but that's a big if. Fortunately, a pair of no-names in Scott Feldman and Colby Lewis are expected to put up solid numbers this year. Oh, and there's also that Neftali Feliz guy, who was lights-out in the bullpen last year and is the Rangers ace-in-training.

Frank Francisco, a longtime Rangers setup man who became their closer last year, returns to the stopper role. He'll be supported by a number of bullpen mainstays, including Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Willie Eyre and former Orioles closer Chris Ray.

Los Angeles Angels

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Howie Kendrick 2B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Kendry Morales 1B
Juan Rivera LF
Hideki Matsui DH
Mike Napoli C
Brandon Wood 3B
Erick Aybar SS

Rotation
Ervin Santana
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
Scott Kazmir
Joel Piniero
Matt Palmer
Sean O'Sullivan
Trevor Bell
Anthony Ortega

Honestly, I'm not sure who the Angels leadoff hitter will be. Abreu is probably idea for that spot, but he's shied away from it in the past in favor of being a run producer. The trade of Chone Figgins is great news for Brandon Wood, who finally gets a starting spot after being blocked by Erick Aybar and others at short for many years. The addition of Hideki Matsui is great for the batting order, but perhaps not so much for the defensive lineup, since neither he nor Juan Rivera should be playing much outfield at all these days.

Fortunately, the Angels have never been short on utility outfielders. Reggie Willits is still with the club, and should see decent playing time as a defensive replacement, and when the aging outfielders need a day off. Macier Izturis is putting together a respectable career as a utility infielder, and he too should see good playing time if one of the starters should happen to falter.

If anything gets the Angels to the division crown again this year, it's their rotation. After a few rough patches, Ervin Santana and Jeff Weaver have settled down as reliable starters. Joe Saunders and Joel Piniero are workhorses. And former ace Scott Kazmir could be a steal. Not many teams can boast this much quality from all five spots in their rotation.

Of course, bullpen strength has also been a trademark of the Angels in the 2000s. Brian Fuentes returns as the team's closer, aided by ageless wonders Scot Shields and Rudy Seanez. Fireballer Fernando Rodney also gives the team a new, intriguing weapon out of the pen.

Oakland Athletics

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Coco Crisp CF
Rajai Davis LF
Jack Cust DH
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Kurt Suzuki C
Ryan Sweeney RF
Daric Barton 1B
Mark Ellis 2B
Cliff Pennington SS

Rotation
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Ben Sheets
Justin Ducherer
Vin Mazzaro
Dallas Braden
Gio Gonzalez
Josh Outman
Clayton Mortensen

Speed and defense are the new market inefficiency. The A's got both in new centerfielder Coco Crisp. Kevin Kouzmanoff highlights a laundry list of never-has-beens trying to win the third base job. He'll be competing with Jake Fox and Dallas McPherson to take over Eric Chavez's job. (Chavez, of course, fell a little short of his own potential thanks to injuries.)

In addition to the third basemen-a-plenty, Oakland's bench also features journeyman outfielder Gabe Gross.

Like its across-the-bay counterparts, the A's will look for their young, talented pitching staff to carry a questionable offense. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are two of the best up-and-coming arms in the game. They'll be joined by Ben Sheets, who went from a perennial Cy Young candidate to a forgotten man after he lost all of 2009 with an injury. Among those fighting for the last few spots in the rotation is be-stirruped wonder Josh Outman.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland's token All Star from last year, returns as the closer. He'll be joined by talented setup men Brad Ziegler and Mike Wuertz, as well as Indians castoffs Craig Breslow and Jon Meloan.

Seattle Mariners

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ichiro Suzuki RF
Chone Figgins 3B
Milton Bradley LF
Ken Griffey, Jr DH
Jose Lopez 2B
Casey Kotchman 1B
Rob Johnson C
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Jack Wilson SS

Rotation
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
Doug Fister
Luke French
Jason Vargas
Anthony Varvaro
Edward Paredes
Ryan Feierabend
Garrett Olson

Regression is a cruel mistress. Seattle, the sabermetric darlings, won 85 games last year. They then made some major upgrades. And yet it looks like they'll struggle to top .500 this year. If they do finish with a losing record, it won't be because of the bat of Milton Bradley (assuming he stays healthy and calm), the gloves of Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, or the all-around play of Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins. It's up to the rest of the lineup to come through for the Mariners.

Seattle's bench features backup outfielders Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans. Both should be ready to serve as defensive replacements for Bradley, and as injury replacements when Bradley and Griffey go down. Ryan Garko could also see some time at DH if Griffey struggles, or at first base if Kotchman has trouble handling lefties. Waiting in the wings - and waiting to find a position - is top prospect Dustin Ackley. But perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself, since Ackley is at least a year away from the bigs.

Seattle may now have the best left-right/one-two punch in the majors. If Erik Bedard can return to a level anywhere near his success with the Orioles, this team won't even need to hit to win games. But even if Bedard can't, this is still a very good rotation from top-to-bottom, with Rowland-Smith and a rejuvenated Ian Snell taking the last two spots. There's also plenty of depth, especially with Lorain County native Ryan Feierabend once again waiting in the wings after missing all of 2009 with an injury.

The old joke is that David Aardsma is ahead of Hank Aaron in the record books... alphabetically. Aardsma is also Seattle's closer. He'll be joined in the bullpen by swingman Brandon Morrow and a largely untested group of relievers.

Cleveland Indians: CHONE's WAR Gives Hope for a Winning Season

The Cleveland Indians may be rebuilding again, but it's hard not to be optimistic when CHONE predicts the team to win at least 81 games and finish second in the division.

Let's take a closer look at those projections, using WAR - Wins Above Replacement.

For those unfamiliar with the stat, WAR compares a given player to a replacement player - basically, any random guy you'd pull out of AAA. WAR is nice because it takes into account defense and position difficulty (it's harder to play shortstop than left field) in addition to offense.

It's said that a team of nothing but replacement players will win 47 games. So let's start with that as our baseline.

First, we'll look at the position players. FanGraphs includes this year's CHONE projections, and even gives a WAR number. So that makes things easy. Here are the position players on the 40-man roster.

Player	WAR
Grady Sizemore	5
Shin-Soo Choo	3.1
Asdrubal Cabrera	2.8
Jhonny Peralta	2.2
Luis Valbuena	1.5
Matt LaPorta	1.3
Louis Marson	1.2
Travis Hafner	1.2
Brian Bixler	1
Michael Brantley	1
Mike Redmond	0.8
Trevor Crowe	0.8
Wyatt Toregas	0.8
Jordan Brown	0.6
Carlos Santana	0.4
Andy Marte	0.3
Nick Weglarz	-0.1
Chris Gimenez	-0.5
Jason Donald	-1
Wes Hodges	-1.1
Carlos Rivero	-1.3

Sizemore and Choo are really good, but you already knew that.

Next, the Non-Roster Invitees.

Player	WAR
Shelley Duncan	1.5
Russell Branyan	1.2
Brian Buscher	1
Austin Kearns	0.7
Luis Rodriguez	0
Mark Grudzielanek	-0.3
Damaso Espino	-0.7
Niuman Romero	-1.1
Beau Mills	-1.2
Lonnie Chisenhall	-1.8

Assuming we assemble a 25-man roster with 13 position players and 12 pitchers, here are the best possible position players we could take.

Player	WAR
Grady Sizemore	5
Shin-Soo Choo	3.1
Asdrubal Cabrera	2.8
Jhonny Peralta	2.2
Luis Valbuena	1.5
Shelley Duncan	1.5
Matt LaPorta	1.3
Louis Marson	1.2
Travis Hafner	1.2
Russell Branyan	1.2
Brian Bixler	1
Michael Brantley	1
Brian Buscher	1

OK, so we're short a catcher - that won't work.

Now, here's my best guess at what the actual opening day lineup will look like.

Player	WAR
Louis Marson	1.2
Matt LaPorta	1.3
Luis Valbuena	1.5
Jhonny Peralta	2.2
Asdrubal Cabrera	2.8
Michael Brantley	1
Grady Sizemore	5
Shin-Soo Choo	3.1
Travis Hafner	1.2
Mike Redmond	0.8
Brian Bixler	1
Andy Marte	0.3
Russell Branyan	1.2

The realistic lineup gives us 22.6 WAR, and the best-case gives us 24. Add that to our baseline of 47 wins, and we're already on pace to win 69-71 games.

Now, the pitchers. CHONE's website itself lists Runs Vs. Replacement for pitchers, which is nice. The common standard is that 10 runs = 1 win, so we'll divide the R vs. Rep by 10 to get each player's WAR.

Here are the pitchers on the 40-man.

Player	WAR
Justin Masterson	2.7
Fausto Carmona	2
Aaron Laffey	1.9
Jeremy Sowers	1.5
David Huff	1.4
Hector Rondon	1
Jake Westbrook	1
Hector Ambriz	0.8
Carlos Carrasco	0.6
Kerry Wood	0.6
Mitch Talbot	0.6
Rafael Perez	0.6
Chris Perez	0.5
Jensen Lewis	0.5
Jess Todd	0.4
Tony Sipp	0.4
Joe Smith	0.3
Jeanmar Gomez	-0.8

CHONE didn't have a projection for Kelvin De La Cruz. But boy, it sure is high on Justin Masterson, isn't it?

The non-roster invitees.

Player	WAR
Anthony Reyes	0.9
Jason Grilli	0.6
Mike Gosling	0.2
Saul Rivera	0.2
Frank Herrmann	-0.1
Josh Judy	-0.1
Zach Putnam	-0.3

Alex White and Yohan Pino didn't get CHONE projections.

Here's the best possible group of 12 pitchers.

Player	WAR
Fausto Carmona	2
Aaron Laffey	1.9
Jeremy Sowers	1.5
David Huff	1.4
Hector Rondon	1
Jake Westbrook	1
Anthony Reyes	0.9
Hector Ambriz	0.8
Carlos Carrasco	0.6
Kerry Wood	0.6
Mitch Talbot	0.6

Rafael Perez is also at 0.6, so feel free to substitute him in for Carrasco, Wood, or Talbot as you see fit.

Here's my best guess at the opening day staff. I wasn't sure quite how it was going to turn out, so I started with the guys under contract (Westrbook, Wood, Carmona, and Perez), added rule 5 pickup Ambriz, then just went in descending order by WAR after that.

Player	WAR
Jake Westbrook	1
Kerry Wood	0.6
Fausto Carmona	2
Rafael Perez	0.6
Hector Ambriz	0.8
Justin Masterson	2.7
Aaron Laffey	1.9
Jeremy Sowers	1.5
David Huff	1.4
Hector Rondon	1
Carlos Carrasco	0.6
Mitch Talbot	0.6

The best possible scenario clocks in at 15 total WAR, and the "realistic" one comes in just under that at 14.7. Add that to our 47-win baseline and the 22-24 wins by the hitters, and we're looking at a team that should win at least 80 games and could win as many as 87.

Of course, a word of caution: it was these types of sabermetric projections that predicted the Tribe to win the Central in '06, '08, and '09. But still, it's February, so why not be optimistic?

MLB Previews #1National League West

Once again, we kick off the MLB preview with the NL West. Teams are ordered by their CHONE projected standings from BaseballProjection.com.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rafael Furcal SS
Matt Kemp CF
Andre Ethier RF
Manny Ramirez LF
James Loney 1B
Casey Blake 3B
Ronnie Belliard 2B
Russell Martin C

Rotation
Clayton Kershaw
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Vincente Padilla
James McDonald
Eric Stults
Charlie Haeger

This is how you put together a lineup: start with homegrown talent (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), and fill in the holes with talented veterans. Nothing to complain about here, except maybe the continued employment of Ronnie Belliard. But then again it's hard to complain about a middle infielder who's consistently put up an OPS around .750.

If Belliard doesn't perform, Blake DeWitt is once again waiting in the wings. As is new acquisition Jamey Carroll, who quietly gets on base and plays solid infield defense. Fellow new acquisitions Brad Ausmus and Reed Johnson help fill out the bench and increase the team's scrappy white guy quotient. Ausmus will tutor Russ Martin and a relatively young pitching staff, while Johnson will back up all three outfield positions.

The top of the Dodgers rotation is set with Kershaw, Billingsley, and Kuroda. But with all LA has done to improve their lineup, one has to wonder whether they'll pick up another starting pitcher this season to take their team to the next level. Unless, of course, Padilla, Haeger, and Stults make that unnecessary.

Jonathan Broxton returns as the Dodgers closer, aided by Hong-Chih Kuo, former Orioles George Sherrill, and presumably whichever talented youngsters not in the rotation.

Colorado Rockies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dexter Fowler CF
Carlos Gonzalez LF
Todd Helton 1B
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Bradley Hawpe RF
Ian Stewart 3B
Chris Iannetta C
Clint Barmes 2B

Rotation
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jeff Francis
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Franklin Morales

Fear not, Rockies fans: CHONE predicts the Rockies to at least tie the Dodgers for first in the West. But they'll be doing it in a different way. Gone are the Blake Street Bombers of old, and here are a new mixture of speed, power, and contact in Colorado. The centerpiece of this team is Troy Tulowitzki, well on his way to becoming a household name. He's joined by speed at the top in Fowler and Gonzalez, power at the bottom in Hawpe, Stewart, and Iannetta, and the machine that is Todd Helton. Helton's power may be gone these days, but he still gets on base like no one else.

Colorado has filled its bench with players who are too old for everyday jobs, but who have a chance to shine in more limited roles. Jason Giambi is back as a left-handed pinch hitter, Melvin Mora is essentially the new utility man, and Miguel Olivo is a serviceable veteran backstop.

As strange as it may sound, Colorado's strength may be its starting rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez is, like Troy Tulowitzki, on path to become a star. He's helped out by Aaron Cook and the return of Jeff Francis. Francis missed all of 2009 with an injury, but prior to Jimenez' arrival, it was he who was the Rockies ace-in-training. And then there's Franklin Morales, who hopes to be the next prospect to make the ace reliever-to-ace starter transition.

If Morales can't hack it as a starter (and he probably can), he'll join a talented cast in the bullpen. The Rockies got an established closer in Huston Street, albeit one with consistency issues. But they also surrounded him with talented veteran setup men like Manny Corpas and Rafael Betancourt. All-in-all, this is a very balanced team.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Kelly Johnson 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Justin Upton RF
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Miguel Montero C
Conor Jackson LF
Chris Young CF

Rotation
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Edwin Jackson
Billy Buckner
Ian Kennedy
Kevin Mulvey
Bryan Augenstein

Third place looks appropriate for this team. They're still young, and still seem to favor power over getting on base. That tendency for power over contact seems to be reflected in the acquisition of Adam LaRoche. Offsetting that to some extent though is the signing of Kelly Johnson, a good all-around player.

Outside of Augie Ojeda, Arizona's bench is, like its lineup, a young one. Chris Snyder returns as a backup catcher after losing his job to Miguel Montero. Tony Abreu and Ryan Roberts will fight for a backup infield job. Gerardo Parra will fill in at all three outfield positions as the team continues to groom him for the future.

The Diamondbacks made a curious move early in the offseason when they traded two of their top prospects for Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. Critics were confused, and quickly grapsed for explanations. Maybe the D-backs are trying to win it all now? Maybe they know something about the prospects that they're not letting on? That all remains to be seen. Edwin Jackson's 2008 looked like a fluke, but then he backed it up in 2009. The 1-2-3 rotation spots on every team in this division are loaded with talent, and if Jackson can repeat his success in 2010, Arizona will be as good as any of its rivals.

Arizona's bullpen is a Who's Who of journeyman NL relievers, featuring Chad Qualls at closer and Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman setting him up. Moustached American of the Year Clay Zavada will also be working relief for the Diamondbacks this year.

San Diego Padres

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Everth Cabrera SS
David Eckstein 2B
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Chase Headley 3B
Nick Hundley C
Kyle Blanks LF
Scott Hairston CF
Will Venable RF

Rotation
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Jon Garland
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos
Wade LeBlanc
Tim Stauffer
Edward Mujica
Cesar Carrillo
Cesar Ramos

This is still a rebuilding team. But Adrian Gonzalez will keep 'em coming to the ballpark, as will heir apparent Kyle Blanks. Chase Headley will continue to grow as well. The big question here, of course, is whether the Friars will hold on to Gonzalez or trade him for prospects who can replace the aging placeholders in the lineup.

San Diego signed NL West Yorvit Torrealba as the backup catcher. Scott Hairston's brother Jerry is slated to be the utility infielder. And Tony Gwynn, Jr. will once again try to earn a reserve spot on the team that made his dad famous.

There are glimmers of hope in the Padres rotation. Young talents like Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, and Wade LeBlanc look to join steady veterans like Chris Young and Jon Garland. Of course, playing in the best pitchers' park in the league will certainly help their numbers, if not their development.

Heath Bell returns as one of the best closers in the game. He has to be, because he doesn't have much in the way of help. Bell is another player whose time may be short in San Diego; I'm sure many are suprised that he hasn't been traded yet.

San Francisco Giants

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Aaron Rowand CF
Edgar Renteria SS
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Bengie Molina C
Aubrey Huff 1B
Mark DeRosa LF
Freddy Sanchez 2B
Nate Schierholtz RF

Rotation
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Joe Martinez

What do you get when you combine a lineup built for 2005 with a rotation built for 2012? A team that crashes back down to earth following a suprise run at the playoffs. So it goes with this year's Giants. San Francisco added Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff and brought back Bengie Molina. DeRosa is a great complementary player on a playoff team, and I'm sure that's why the Giants brought him in. But this probably isn't a playoff team. Meanwhile, Huff and Molina's offensive value has all but vanished with age, as has Sanchez and Rowand's (assuming Rowand had any to begin with). The saving grace of this lineup is Kung Fu Panda Sandoval.

Another saving grace of this team is catcher Buster Posey. In an ideal world, Bengie Molina is only keeping the tools of ignorance warm until Posey takes them over. Of course, this is far from an ideal world.

A Cy Young winner, another guy in the race, and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball - all under the age of 26. Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner again have their work cut out for them. They'll have help from guys like Jonathan Sanchez, but how much help the offense can give remains to be seen.

Brian Wilson returns as the Giants closer. He's joined by Jeremy Affeldt and a cast of young nobodies.