Sunday, September 07, 2008

Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis

Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.

This Week's Results
Click Here

This Week's Ideal Lineup

Changes From Last Week
Victor Martinez replaces Ryan Garko. Shin-Soo Choo has passed Grady Sizemore in both on base and slugging percentage and moves into the second spot in the lineup (normally reserved for the best overall hitter in this formula).

Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.358, down 0.009 from last week. That's basically a push, but continues a slight downward trend over the past few weeks.

Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.851 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.507 runs per game, which in turn leads to 82 runs over the course of the season, or 8.2 more wins. That's theoretically enough to be tied with the Twins right now, looking up at Chicago in the division and Boston in the wild card.

Defensive Plausibility
Once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner, and Martinez comes in to play first.

Fan Believability
Nope, none at all.

My Take
The lineup makes good sense in terms of Dave Pinto's formula. Fasano and Jamey Carroll have a good OBP but little else. Choo is the best overall hitter right now, followed by Sizemore. That's what the two and five spots are for. Kelly Shoppach is a masher who doesn't hit for high average, and therefore is hitting leadoff. Six and seven are you best remaining hitters, Jhonny Peralta and Ben Francisco. Three and eight are your weakest hitters (to space out your outs), Martinez and David Dellucci. Of course, Martinez' numbers are obviously tainted by his early-season performance.

Random Indians Thought of the Week
College football has started, and I'm starting to put most of my blogging time and attention into that. Let me know if you'd like me to continue doing the Indians lineup analysis for the rest of the season.