Friday, April 09, 2010

Sabermetric Bracketology: 2010 Post Mortem

Since I didn't get a chance to preview my brackets this year, here's a wrapup of how I did.

Straightforward Scoring: The "Pomeroy Bracket"

Again I used the Pomeroy Ratings for my straightforward bracket, and this year it was a success. Well, at least it was successful as getting three Elite 8 and one Final Four team can be, since that one Final Four team was Duke, who I also had winning the championship.

I can also thank Pomeroy for correctly putting Tennessee, Butler, and Xavier in the Sweet 16, and Baylor in the Elite 8. Outside of that, though, I mostly have to attribute my success to luck.

Upset Scoring: The Expected Value Method

I had one my upset scoring bracket two years in a row, but this year my luck ran out. And yes, it was luck, since part of my method involves picking which regionals to which I would apply my expected value methods (detailed here and here).

Those methods served me well in getting Cornell into the Sweet 16. But my major setback was a combination of bad luck and my own fault. My method calls plays the odds by putting all four number ones in the Final Four, and this year that wasn't a good strategy. On top of that, I decided to hedge my bets by picking Kansas over Kentucky in the finals, instead of relying on Pomeroy to have Duke as my champion again.

So, I finished in fourth, just out of medal contention. For next year, I'm going to study my previous brackets to see if it would have been better to use the expected value method on all four regionals, or whether I should continue to use "control" regionals. Stay tuned for those results.

Thursday, April 01, 2010


  • Tangotiger is crowdsourcing MLB playing time predictions, and he needs your help - especially if you're an Indians or Pirates fan. The survey ends Friday, so submit your projections today!

  • Notre Dame will be competing in a 16-team rugby 7's tournament the weekend of June 5. Below is the press release from NBC.
    NEW YORK - Mar. 4, 2010 - The inaugural Rugby 7's Collegiate Championship, a USA Sevens event, will be broadcast on NBC Sports on Saturday and Sunday, June 5-6 from 4:30-6 p.m. ET. Universal Sports will provide extended coverage on Saturday and Sunday, June 5-6 from 2-4:30 p.m. ET.

    "Rugby Sevens is an exciting, fast-paced sport that is growing in global popularity, participation and interest," said NBC Sports executive vice president Jon Miller. "USA Sevens is the ideal partner for this event, which features the best collegiate rugby teams in the country."

    "The colleges are the future of rugby in the United States," said USA Sevens CEO Jon Prusmack. "Teaming with NBC Sports takes Rugby Sevens to the next level."

    The Rugby 7's Collegiate Championship, a round-robin tournament, begins on Friday, June 4 and concludes with the championship game on Sunday, June 6 at Columbus Crew Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. It features 16 collegiate teams with historic rugby programs, including Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida, Cal and Harvard. A complete list of teams will be announced at a later date.

  • Finally, and most importantly, Mike Anello - my personal cheeseball and yours - is raising money for St. Baldrick's pediatric cancer fund. Check out Anello's new blog for details.