Cleveland Indians: Quick & Dirty Second Half Projections

The Hardball Times recently released a tool that uses the Marcels projection system to create quick-and-dirty projections of a player's performance over the rest of 2008. Picking up on what's already been done for the Mets and Brewers, here's what the tool had to say about the Indians.

Hitters

The Marcels are best for rate stats, such as batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Here, I measure improvement or regression in terms of the difference between a player's OPS-to-date and their "balance" OPS, or their projected OPS from now until the end of the year. This is labeled as OPS_delta.

Massive Improvement

(> 3 Standard Deviations)
Josh Barfield

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	3	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2008 (proj balance)	66	131	123	33	7	1	2	7	20	0.264	0.308	0.387	48	1	0.695	0.695
2008 (proj total)	69	137	129	33	7	1	2	7	20	0.252	0.294	0.369	48	1	0.663

This one really isn't fair, since Barfield will obviously improve on his 0-for-6 start. Unfortunately, .695 and .663 are still below league-average OPSs.

Much Improvement

(> 1 Standard Deviation)
Jorge Velandia

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	10	16	15	3	1	0	0	1	4	0.2	0.25	0.267	4	0	0.517
2008 (proj balance)	66	105	94	25	5	0	3	10	18	0.266	0.342	0.42	40	1	0.762	0.245
2008 (proj total)	76	121	109	28	6	0	3	11	22	0.257	0.329	0.399	44	1	0.729

Travis Hafner

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	46	188	157	34	9	0	4	23	44	0.217	0.332	0.35	55	4	0.682
2008 (proj balance)	66	268	226	61	14	1	12	38	44	0.271	0.384	0.497	112	3	0.882	0.2
2008 (proj total)	112	456	383	95	23	1	16	61	88	0.249	0.36	0.437	167	7	0.797

I can't guarantee all the Jorge Velandia fans out there that he'll play 66 games over the rest of the season. But I can back Marcel's other guarantee - that Travis Hafner, when healthy, will greatly improve over what he's done so far.

Some Improvement

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Andy Marte

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	33	90	82	15	3	0	1	4	23	0.183	0.23	0.256	21	1	0.486
2008 (proj balance)	66	179	164	38	10	1	4	13	31	0.231	0.295	0.376	62	2	0.672	0.186
2008 (proj total)	99	269	246	53	13	1	5	17	54	0.215	0.271	0.336	83	3	0.607

Asdrubal Cabrera

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	53	189	161	30	7	0	1	22	41	0.186	0.288	0.248	40	1	0.536
2008 (proj balance)	66	234	208	51	11	1	4	24	36	0.248	0.331	0.369	77	2	0.7	0.164
2008 (proj total)	119	423	369	81	18	1	5	46	77	0.221	0.309	0.316	117	3	0.625

Victor Martinez

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	54	217	198	55	11	0	0	16	23	0.278	0.335	0.333	66	1	0.668
2008 (proj balance)	66	263	236	69	15	0	7	25	29	0.294	0.368	0.449	106	2	0.817	0.149
2008 (proj total)	120	480	434	124	26	0	7	41	52	0.286	0.352	0.396	172	3	0.748

Franklin Gutierrez

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	76	231	214	46	10	1	3	10	50	0.215	0.263	0.313	67	4	0.576
2008 (proj balance)	66	199	185	47	10	1	5	13	38	0.253	0.307	0.4	74	2	0.707	0.131
2008 (proj total)	142	430	399	93	20	2	8	23	88	0.233	0.282	0.353	141	6	0.635

Ryan Garko

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	84	328	291	70	11	0	7	25	47	0.241	0.32	0.351	102	9	0.671
2008 (proj balance)	66	256	230	63	12	0	8	19	37	0.273	0.347	0.434	100	7	0.781	0.11
2008 (proj total)	150	584	521	133	23	0	15	44	84	0.255	0.33	0.387	202	16	0.718

Michael Aubrey

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	9	30	27	5	0	0	2	3	3	0.185	0.267	0.407	11	0	0.674
2008 (proj balance)	66	218	196	50	9	1	7	20	30	0.256	0.331	0.418	82	2	0.749	0.075
2008 (proj total)	75	248	223	55	9	1	9	23	33	0.247	0.323	0.417	93	2	0.74

David Dellucci

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	77	248	224	51	13	0	8	17	53	0.228	0.3	0.393	88	6	0.692
2008 (proj balance)	66	211	188	46	10	2	8	20	39	0.246	0.329	0.437	82	3	0.766	0.074
2008 (proj total)	143	459	412	97	23	2	16	37	92	0.236	0.312	0.413	170	9	0.725

Shin-Soo Choo

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	37	131	111	26	8	1	3	16	29	0.234	0.341	0.405	45	2	0.746
2008 (proj balance)	66	232	205	53	13	2	5	24	42	0.26	0.345	0.419	86	3	0.764	0.018
2008 (proj total)	103	363	316	79	21	3	8	40	71	0.251	0.342	0.414	131	5	0.756

There are positives and negatives to be taken away from this group. First, Shin-Soo Choo, who has been hitting well (especially compared to his teammates), is actually due for a minor improvement over the rest of the season. Second, Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, and David Dellucci are all due to hit at an above-league-average clip in the second half. That's just what this team needs, and what those players need individually. Now the negatives: yes, Andy Marte, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Franklin Gutierrez are due for some improvement. But that still won't make their final numbers very pretty.

Exactly the Same

Jhonny Peralta

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	88	372	345	90	25	1	16	23	72	0.261	0.307	0.478	165	0	0.785
2008 (proj balance)	66	277	251	68	15	1	9	24	53	0.27	0.337	0.447	113	1	0.785	0
2008 (proj total)	154	649	596	158	40	2	25	47	125	0.265	0.318	0.465	278	1	0.783

Earlier this year, I noticed that Jhonny Peralta's career slash stats were almost exactly league-average. Peralta once again will live up to that Mr. Average billing; he'll see an increase in his OPB but a slight dropoff in his slugging percentage.

Some Regression

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Kelly Shoppach

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	58	186	168	41	12	0	7	11	61	0.244	0.31	0.44	74	5	0.75
2008 (proj balance)	66	210	193	48	12	0	7	15	53	0.251	0.313	0.426	82	3	0.739	-0.011
2008 (proj total)	124	396	361	89	24	0	14	26	114	0.248	0.31	0.433	156	8	0.743

Jamey Carroll

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	68	248	213	57	7	4	0	20	38	0.268	0.35	0.338	72	7	0.688
2008 (proj balance)	66	239	213	54	9	2	2	22	31	0.254	0.334	0.342	73	3	0.676	-0.012
2008 (proj total)	134	487	426	111	16	6	2	42	69	0.261	0.336	0.34	145	10	0.676

Ben Francisco

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	64	266	239	70	19	0	8	22	41	0.293	0.357	0.473	113	2	0.83
2008 (proj balance)	66	272	248	70	17	1	8	23	42	0.281	0.346	0.455	113	2	0.801	-0.029
2008 (proj total)	130	538	487	140	36	1	16	45	83	0.287	0.35	0.464	226	4	0.814

Grady Sizemore

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	92	426	366	100	20	4	23	53	72	0.273	0.374	0.538	197	6	0.912
2008 (proj balance)	66	303	264	75	16	3	12	34	49	0.285	0.377	0.501	133	5	0.878	-0.034
2008 (proj total)	158	729	630	175	36	7	35	87	121	0.278	0.375	0.523	330	11	0.897

Casey Blake

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	88	345	305	86	23	0	10	30	64	0.282	0.36	0.456	139	7	0.815
2008 (proj balance)	66	257	232	60	14	1	8	21	44	0.261	0.333	0.432	100	4	0.765	-0.05
2008 (proj total)	154	602	537	146	37	1	18	51	108	0.273	0.346	0.446	239	11	0.792

Most Indians fans know that these are the guys who are having good years. Unfortunately, that party's about to end for some. The good news is that the dropoff is slight. For most guys, Marcel predicts most of the regression to come from slugging percentage, not on base. For example, Marcel says Grady Size is due for a 0.003 decline in OBP but a 0.037 drop in SLG. This is because Marcel is an imperfect model (no offense, of course, because it wasn't meant to be perfect) based on past performance. Grady's never hit 23 HR before the break before, and that's taken into account for his second-half performance. Meanwhile, those urging the Indians to sell high on Casey Blake may finally have their statistical proof.

Much Regression

Sal Fasano

Year	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	HBP	OPS	OPS_delta
2008	4	15	13	5	1	0	0	2	5	0.385	0.467	0.462	6	0	0.928
2008 (proj balance)	66	246	226	54	11	1	8	15	54	0.239	0.3	0.396	89	5	0.696	-0.232
2008 (proj total)	70	261	239	59	12	1	8	17	59	0.247	0.31	0.399	95	5	0.709

Sorry Sal, but we knew you couldn't keep it up for that much longer.

Pitchers

The Marcel projections returned two useful rate stats - ERA and WHIP. I added these two together to create a Total_delta for each pitcher.

Massive Improvement

(> 3 Standard Deviations)
Brian Slocum

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	2	0	27	2	8	1	0	1	4	15	2	6
2008 (proj balance)	1	0	4.48	1	3	2	1	0	2.5	10	0	1	-22.52	-1.5	-24.02
2008 (proj total)	3	0	17.89	3	11	3	1	1	3.4	25	2	7

Brian Slocum was the curve-wrecker on this one. Then again, 2 IP with 6 ER to date will do that for you.

Much Improvement

(>1 Standard Deviation)
Tom Mastny

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	6	1	13.01	8.3	13	9	8	0	2.52	47	3	12
2008 (proj balance)	4	1	4.39	6	8	6	3	0	1.93	32	1	3	-8.62	-0.59	-9.21
2008 (proj total)	10	2	9.52	14	21	15	11	0	2.29	79	4	15

Like Slocum, Tom Mastny's numbers were affected by his small sample size. (Unlike Slocum, Mastny also had that ugly emergency start to his credit.)

Some Improvement

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Jeremy Sowers

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	9	9	7.52	44.3	66	26	19	1	1.92	214	10	37
2008 (proj balance)	6	6	4.73	30	37	19	11	1	1.61	145	5	16	-2.79	-0.31	-3.1
2008 (proj total)	15	15	6.39	74	103	45	30	2	1.79	359	15	53

Rafael Betancourt

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	42	0	6	42	48	42	14	0	1.48	185	8	28
2008 (proj balance)	29	0	3.58	29	29	26	9	1	1.32	126	4	11	-2.42	-0.16	-2.58
2008 (proj total)	71	0	5.02	71	77	68	23	1	1.41	311	12	39

Juan Rincon

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	24	0	6.11	28	33	20	16	2	1.75	133	5	19
2008 (proj balance)	16	0	4.17	19	21	16	8	1	1.57	90	2	9	-1.94	-0.18	-2.12
2008 (proj total)	40	0	5.32	47	54	36	24	3	1.68	223	7	28

Paul Byrd

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	18	18	5.47	102	121	44	17	5	1.35	435	23	62
2008 (proj balance)	12	12	4.76	69	82	35	15	3	1.4	295	11	37	-0.71	0.05	-0.66
2008 (proj total)	30	30	5.18	171	203	79	32	8	1.37	730	34	99

Jensen Lewis

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	24	0	4.41	34.7	38	26	19	2	1.64	160	4	17
2008 (proj balance)	16	0	3.94	24	25	20	10	1	1.46	109	2	10	-0.47	-0.18	-0.65
2008 (proj total)	40	0	4.22	58	63	46	29	3	1.57	269	6	27

Edward Mujica

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	13	0	4.85	16.7	15	12	4	1	1.14	69	3	9
2008 (proj balance)	9	0	4.1	11	11	8	3	0	1.28	47	1	5	-0.75	0.14	-0.61
2008 (proj total)	22	0	4.55	28	26	20	7	1	1.19	116	4	14

Those who have watched Jeremy Sowers' last two starts know he's already started to improve. Meanwhile, it's nice to see Rafael Betancourt, Paul Byrd, and Jensen Lewis - the poster children for regression on the pitching staff in 2008 - at least have some room for improvement over the rest of the year.

Some Regression

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Rafael Perez

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	43	0	3.16	42.7	40	43	16	1	1.31	177	5	15
2008 (proj balance)	29	0	3.65	29	26	26	10	1	1.24	120	3	12	0.49	-0.07	0.42
2008 (proj total)	72	0	3.36	72	66	69	26	2	1.28	297	8	27

Aaron Laffey

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	15	15	3.61	89.7	91	41	29	9	1.34	384	10	36
2008 (proj balance)	10	10	4.21	61	60	37	20	4	1.31	261	6	28	0.6	-0.03	0.57
2008 (proj total)	25	25	3.85	151	151	78	49	13	1.33	645	16	64

Fausto Carmona

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	10	10	3.1	58	54	23	38	3	1.59	255	1	20
2008 (proj balance)	7	7	3.94	39	39	26	16	2	1.38	173	3	17	0.84	-0.21	0.63
2008 (proj total)	17	17	3.44	97	93	49	54	5	1.5	428	4	37

Jake Westbrook

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	5	5	3.11	34.7	33	19	7	1	1.15	139	5	12
2008 (proj balance)	3	3	4.01	24	24	13	7	1	1.3	94	2	11	0.9	0.15	1.05
2008 (proj total)	8	8	3.48	58	57	32	14	2	1.21	233	7	23

Masa Kobayashi

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	42	0	3.05	44.3	40	28	11	1	1.15	182	5	15
2008 (proj balance)	29	0	4.18	30	29	20	10	1	1.28	124	3	14	1.13	0.13	1.26
2008 (proj total)	71	0	3.51	74	69	48	21	2	1.2	306	8	29

Cliff Lee

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	18	18	2.31	124.7	109	106	20	0	1.03	488	5	32
2008 (proj balance)	12	12	3.66	85	79	58	22	2	1.19	331	8	34	1.35	0.16	1.51
2008 (proj total)	30	30	2.85	209	188	164	42	2	1.1	819	13	66

Matt Ginter

Year	G	GS	ERA	IP	Hit	K	BB	HBP	WHIP	BFP	HR	ER	ERA_delta	WHIP_delta	Total_Delta
2008	1	1	0	5	5	5	0	0	1	20	0	0
2008 (proj balance)	1	1	4.11	3	3	2	1	0	1.28	14	0	2	4.11	0.28	4.39
2008 (proj total)	2	2	1.66	8	8	7	1	0	1.11	34	0	2

Again, most Indians fans would agree that these are the pitchers who had good first halves. Rafael Perez, Aaron Laffey, and Fausto Carmona are all due to see their ERAs increase but their WHIPs decrease. I'm not sure what to make of that, other than the fact that neither is a perfect stat to indicate a pitcher's overall performance. Meanwhile, predictably, Cliff Lee is due for some regression to the mean. Still, I doubt anyone will be upset if he finishes with a 2.85 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.