Vegas Odds
The line is starting to move on this one. Originally Hawaii was a 1.5 point favorite, but now they're anywhere between there and a 1.5 point underdog to the Irish. They're a saying that you automatically give the home team 3 points. Well, despite the fact that Notre Dame will be wearing the dark jerseys, the Warriors have the home field advantage in this one. Of course, I've also heard that Notre Dame automatically gets 3 points in their favor on the line due to their following. Those 3 points of course cancel out the three given to Hawaii for home field advantage.Computer Rankings
Below are the six computer rankings used by the BCS, and Notre Dame and Hawaii's position in each. As you can see, it's very tight.| Notre Dame | Hawaii | |
|---|---|---|
| Sagarin | 60 | 61 |
| Anderson & Hester | 57 | 63 |
| Billingsley | 69 | 65 |
| Colley | 60 | 59 |
| Massey | 55 | 59 |
| Wolfe | 62 | 59 |
| Average | 60.5 | 61 |
But those aren't the only computer rankings out there. Jeff Sagarin also includes on his website (rather bitterly) another ranking, called his PREDICTOR, that relies heavily on margin of victory. In that, Notre Dame is 62nd and Hawaii 95th.
The Fremeau Efficiency Index, used by Football Outsiders and housed at BCS Toys, has Notre Dame at 47 and Hawaii at 101. In addition, BCF Toys is calling the game a lock, with an 88% degree of confidence that Notre Dame will win 30-10.
Stastical Trends
Finally, here's a quick-and-dirty regression analysis. For each game this season, I took Notre Dame's points for and against, and rushing, passing, and total yards for and against. Excel gave me the following coefficients:| Stat | Coefficient |
|---|---|
| Y-Intercept | 0.76 |
| Points For | 0.01 |
| Points Against | -0.03 |
| Rushing For | 0.06 |
| Rushing Against | -0.07 |
| Passing For | 0.06 |
| Passing Against | -0.07 |
| Total For | -0.06 |
| Total Against | 0.07 |
Like I said, it's a very quick-and-dirty model. I'm not even sure if the variables I used are reliable predictors of wins and losses. Of course, the small sample size of 12 games is also an issue. But this is all something I can work on next year.
Anyways, plugging Hawaii's season averages into this model gives Notre Dame a 57% chance of winning.
