Bubble Watch should be renamed "Seed Watch" this year, as the men and the women aren't worrying about whether they'll make the Big Dance, but instead how high they'll be placed. Let's see what the experts are saying.
ND Men's Basketball: The men have held steady at #21, according to CollegeRPI.com. CollegeRPI also has the men as a #4 seed, playing out West (Denver, CO) versus Ohio State. ESPN's Bracketology also has the men as a #4 seed, playing against Virginia Commonwealth in the East (Washington, DC).
ND Women's Basketball: CollegeRPI has the women at #12 in the RPI, and a #3 seed in the Oklahoma City Regional. They'd start by playing Quinnipiac on Purdue's campus, which is a great advantage for them. ESPN also has the women starting in East Lafayette, but as a #4 seed against Gonzaga in the Spokane Regional.
Showing posts with label Bubble Watch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bubble Watch. Show all posts
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Notre Dame Basketball Bubble Watch
Editor's Note: No Sports Minute this week, apparently. Good thing I already had this one up my sleeve.
It's that time again already. Fortunately, both teams are in great shape right now.
For those of you unfamiliar with my Bubble Watch formula, here's a synopsis. There are so many at large teams taken for each tournament - 34 in the men's tourney, and 33 in the women's. In theory, the selection committee will take the teams with the 34 or 33 highest RPI rankings that aren't also conference champions (and therefore automatic bids). So, a team should be in if
(Team's RPI) - (Number of automatic bids with higher RPI) > (Number of at large bids).
You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
ND Men's Basketball: As mentioned above, the "magic number" for the men is 34. The 21-5 men's team currently has an RPI of 21. There are no doubt a few conference leaders ahead of them too. If needed in the next few weeks, I'll break down the exact number of conference leaders ahead of them to get a better estimate.
ND Women's Basketball: The Notre Dame women look to be a lock already. The women are #14 in both polls, but thanks to the sixth hardest schedule in the country, they're at #10 in the RPI.
It's that time again already. Fortunately, both teams are in great shape right now.
For those of you unfamiliar with my Bubble Watch formula, here's a synopsis. There are so many at large teams taken for each tournament - 34 in the men's tourney, and 33 in the women's. In theory, the selection committee will take the teams with the 34 or 33 highest RPI rankings that aren't also conference champions (and therefore automatic bids). So, a team should be in if
(Team's RPI) - (Number of automatic bids with higher RPI) > (Number of at large bids).
You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
ND Men's Basketball: As mentioned above, the "magic number" for the men is 34. The 21-5 men's team currently has an RPI of 21. There are no doubt a few conference leaders ahead of them too. If needed in the next few weeks, I'll break down the exact number of conference leaders ahead of them to get a better estimate.
ND Women's Basketball: The Notre Dame women look to be a lock already. The women are #14 in both polls, but thanks to the sixth hardest schedule in the country, they're at #10 in the RPI.
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Bubble Watch
Notre Dame Men: The men have an RPI of 31, and 21 of the spots ahead of them are filled by at-larges. (That number changes to 22 if Butler loses tonight's Horizon League championship to Wright State, unless Butler would move below ND in the RPI as a result.) I'd say the men are safe.
Notre Dame Women: Like the men, the women are #31 in the RPI, but they have only 20 potential at-larges ahead of them. Although the women have one less at-large slot to vie for, I'd still say that they are safe as well.
But just for fun, let's calculate the rough odds of Dave being in the air for both a first and second round game. Last week, I said that there was a 1/8 chance of the Irish being picked for a 7 PM game on March 16, when Dave is en route to Cleveland. For laziness' sake, let's say ND has a 50% chance of winning their first round game. There are two second round games at each site, and for the sake of argument let's say that one of those games will be played at 7, while Dave is flying home. That gives us a 1/8 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/32 chance that Dave will miss the entirety of both Notre Dame games.
(If anyone feels so inspired and has a calculator handy, here are some variables you can add for a more robust calculation: odds ND will be a 6 seed as predicted, odds that a 6/11 first round game will be played at 7 PM, odds that a #6 seed wins their first round game, odds a 3/6 second round game will be played at 7 PM, odds that Dave's flights will run on time.)
Notre Dame Women: Like the men, the women are #31 in the RPI, but they have only 20 potential at-larges ahead of them. Although the women have one less at-large slot to vie for, I'd still say that they are safe as well.
Dave's Flight Watch
Three out of four sources from last week now have the men at a #6 seed in Lexington, meaning they would begin play on the 15th.But just for fun, let's calculate the rough odds of Dave being in the air for both a first and second round game. Last week, I said that there was a 1/8 chance of the Irish being picked for a 7 PM game on March 16, when Dave is en route to Cleveland. For laziness' sake, let's say ND has a 50% chance of winning their first round game. There are two second round games at each site, and for the sake of argument let's say that one of those games will be played at 7, while Dave is flying home. That gives us a 1/8 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/32 chance that Dave will miss the entirety of both Notre Dame games.
(If anyone feels so inspired and has a calculator handy, here are some variables you can add for a more robust calculation: odds ND will be a 6 seed as predicted, odds that a 6/11 first round game will be played at 7 PM, odds that a #6 seed wins their first round game, odds a 3/6 second round game will be played at 7 PM, odds that Dave's flights will run on time.)
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
Bubble Watch
It's that time again already. Fortunately, it looks like both teams are in good shape right now.
For those of you unfamiliar with my Bubble Watch formula, here's a synopsis. There are so many at large teams taken for each tournament - 34 in the men's tourney, and 33 in the women's. In theory, the selection committee will take the teams with the 34 or 33 highest RPI rankings that aren't also conference champions (and therefore automatic bids). So, a team should be in if
(Team's RPI) - (Number of automatic bids with higher RPI) > (Number of at large bids).
ND Men's Basketball: As mentioned above, the "magic number" for the men is 34. Notre Dame currently has an RPI of 32 (despite a Strength of Schedule of 106), and there are no doubt several conference leaders/champions ahead of them, so they're safe this week. If needed in the next few weeks, I'll break down the exact number of conference leaders ahead of them to get a better estimate.
ND Women's Basketball: The Notre Dame women are in even better shape, sitting at 28 in the RPI with a SOS of 23. Not bad for a rebuilding year.
First, the odds that he'll be midair when the women's team is playing: 0%. The women's tournament doesn't start until March 17.
Now, the odds that the men will play their first round game while Dave is sans-TV. I had a terrible time finding tipoff times for this year's tournament - or last year's tournament for that matter. So, for the sake of argument this week, I'm going to say that all sites have 1, 3, 7, and 9 PM Eastern tipoff times, and that there's no rhyme or reason for scheduling the times. (That is, the times and the seeds don't correspond.) As I gather more information, I'll refine things.
Sixteen of the 32 first round games will be played on March 16. Of those games, a fourth will be played at 7 PM. So, there's a 16/32 * 1/4 = 1/8 chance that Dave will miss the ND game in its entirety. In addition, Dave lands shortly after 9, and there's taxiing, baggage, and driving, meaning he would part of a 9 PM game. One out of 8 games will be played at 9 PM on March 16, so overall there's a 1/4 chance that Dave will miss at least some of the ND game. (Unless F-Bomb graciously DVR's it.)
Now, let's take a look at where some of the experts say that Notre Dame will play:
Columbus is in the Eastern time zone, so they will have a 7 PM and 9 PM game.
Over the next few weeks, I will (or I may) refine my formula, and work out the odds that Dave will also be in the air back to New York during second round action on Sunday.
For those of you unfamiliar with my Bubble Watch formula, here's a synopsis. There are so many at large teams taken for each tournament - 34 in the men's tourney, and 33 in the women's. In theory, the selection committee will take the teams with the 34 or 33 highest RPI rankings that aren't also conference champions (and therefore automatic bids). So, a team should be in if
(Team's RPI) - (Number of automatic bids with higher RPI) > (Number of at large bids).
ND Men's Basketball: As mentioned above, the "magic number" for the men is 34. Notre Dame currently has an RPI of 32 (despite a Strength of Schedule of 106), and there are no doubt several conference leaders/champions ahead of them, so they're safe this week. If needed in the next few weeks, I'll break down the exact number of conference leaders ahead of them to get a better estimate.
ND Women's Basketball: The Notre Dame women are in even better shape, sitting at 28 in the RPI with a SOS of 23. Not bad for a rebuilding year.
Dave's Flight Watch
As a special added feature to Bubble Watch this year, I'm introducting "Dave's Flight Watch." Dave is planning to fly into Cleveland on the night of March 16. His flight takes off at approximately 7 PM and lands at approximately 9 PM. Dave asked me to calculate the odds of being midair while the Irish play, since he always seems to have terrible luck like that.First, the odds that he'll be midair when the women's team is playing: 0%. The women's tournament doesn't start until March 17.
Now, the odds that the men will play their first round game while Dave is sans-TV. I had a terrible time finding tipoff times for this year's tournament - or last year's tournament for that matter. So, for the sake of argument this week, I'm going to say that all sites have 1, 3, 7, and 9 PM Eastern tipoff times, and that there's no rhyme or reason for scheduling the times. (That is, the times and the seeds don't correspond.) As I gather more information, I'll refine things.
Sixteen of the 32 first round games will be played on March 16. Of those games, a fourth will be played at 7 PM. So, there's a 16/32 * 1/4 = 1/8 chance that Dave will miss the ND game in its entirety. In addition, Dave lands shortly after 9, and there's taxiing, baggage, and driving, meaning he would part of a 9 PM game. One out of 8 games will be played at 9 PM on March 16, so overall there's a 1/4 chance that Dave will miss at least some of the ND game. (Unless F-Bomb graciously DVR's it.)
Now, let's take a look at where some of the experts say that Notre Dame will play:
- CollegeRPI.com: #10 seed vs Texas at Winston-Salem. First round March 15.
- ESPN Bracketology: #6 seed vs Old Dominion at Columbus. First round March 16.
- Fox Sports: #11 vs UNLV at Lexington. First round March 15.
- Bracketography.com: #9 seed vs Michigan State at Sacramento. First round March 15.
Columbus is in the Eastern time zone, so they will have a 7 PM and 9 PM game.
Over the next few weeks, I will (or I may) refine my formula, and work out the odds that Dave will also be in the air back to New York during second round action on Sunday.
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