Showing posts with label MLB Previews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MLB Previews. Show all posts

Friday, March 26, 2010

MLB Preview #6
American League Central

Minnesota Twins

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Mike Cuddyer RF
Jim Thome DH/Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel LF/DH
JJ Hardy SS
Nick Punto/Brendan Harris 3B

Rotation
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Carl Pavano
Nick Blackburn
Francisco Liriano
Brian Duensing


The Twins simultaneously upgraded at shortstop and center field by trading Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy. Denard Span's defense is arguably on par with Gomez', plus Span has a much better bat. The Twins will need all the range Span can give them if he's going to be sharing an outfield with Kubel and Cuddyer. Presumably, we'll see the Kubel/Thome combination against righties, and Young/Kubel or Young/Thome against lefties. Despite all their moves, including the addition of an increasingly league-average Orlando Hudson, the Twinkies still have a hole at third base. Whether that's filled by no-longer-a-prospect Brendan Harris or the good glove/no hit Nick Punto will probably depend on the matchup.

Jose Morales will be Joe Mauer's injury insurance this year, while Matt Tolbert will be waiting to take innings from Harris, Punto, and the other infielders.

Minnesota's pitching rotation has always been full of young talent, and this year is no different. However, for those who didn't pay attention to baseball for the past few years, it may come as a surprise that Scott Baker is the staff ace and Francisco Liriano is fighting to even make it into the rotation. The addition and retention of Carl Pavano will help this club's playoff run. Notre Dame product Jeff Manship will also try to work his way into the mix after making his Major League debut last year.

The Twins may have lost Joe Nathan for the season, but the bullpen has always been the Future Closers of America club. Veteran Jon Rauch will step in for the time being, but Minnesota may still look for a trade. Rauch will be supported by Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, and Jesse Crain.

Cleveland Indians

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Asdrubal Cabrera SS
Grady Sizemore CF
Shin-Soo Choo RF
Russell Branyan 1B
Travis Hafner DH
Jhonny Peralta 3B
Matt LaPorta LF
Lou Marson C
Luis Valbuena 2B

Rotation
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
Justin Masterson
Aaron Laffey
Mitch Talbot
David Huff


Even this optimistic Indians fan was surprised by CHONE's prediction of a second place finish for the Tribe. Still, they have the weapons to do it if everything comes together correctly. Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore are the stars, and the supporting cast is starting to come together nicely. Much was made of Sizemore's drop to the second spot in the lineup, but many projection systems say that's where a team's best hitter should hit. The decision will be much easier to swallow if Asdrubal Cabrera can again hit like he did last year. With Russell Branyan and Travis Hafner, the big issue as always will be health. Branyan has yet to play this spring, which could lead to Austin Kearns taking his spot on opening day. Meanwhile, Lou Marson will play the Josh Bard to Carlos Santana's Victor Martinez to start this season.

All signs point to the Indians keeping Michael Brantley in the minors to start the season, even with Branyan's injury. The idea is to delay Brantley's arbitration clock. It could mean that Trevor Crowe starts the season with the parent club, since he can back up all three outfield positions. Mike Redmond was added as a veteran presence not only for a young pitching staff, but also for a young catching unit. It looks like Redmond will be Fausto Carmona's personal catcher as the latter looks to get back on track. A number of players are fighting for the backup infield spot, including the infamous Andy Marte, new acquisition Anderson Hernandez, and non-roster invitee Mark Grudzielanek.

Only three spots are set in the starting rotation at this point. Jake Westbrook will pitch opening day, followed by Carmona, followed by Justin Masterson. The last two spots will go to two of Aaron Laffey, Mitch Talbot, and David Huff, with Talbot expected to win a place by default since he is out of options. But as on any rebuilding team, there will be plenty of pitchers earning starts on this team. Jeremy Sowers will fight injuries and ineffectiveness in what may be his last hurrah with the team, while Carlos Carrasco will try to prove he's had enough minor league seasoning to get the call.

Rumors that Kerry Wood would be traded to the Twins to replace Joe Nathan were quickly squashed when it was discovered that Wood himself would lose two months due to injuries. That just turns Chris Perez, Future Closer into Chris Perez, Current Closer. Perez will be aided by a number of pitchers looking to prove themselves after ineffective 2009 campaigns, including Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis. Rule V pickup Hector Ambriz will also try to contribute from the pen.


Chicago White Sox

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Juan Pierre LF
Gordon Beckham 2B
Carlos Quentin RF
Paul Konerko 1B
Alex Rios CF
Andruw Jones DH
AJ Pierzynski C
Alexei Ramirez SS
Mark Teahen 3B

Rotation
Mark Buehrle
Jake Peavy
Gavin Floyd
John Danks
Freddy Garcia
Dan Hudson


The White Sox started with a good concept: a young core of Beckham, Quentin, and Ramirez complemented by veterans Konerko and Pierzynski. But the additions of Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Mark Teahen were questionable at best. (I'll let the reader decide where Alex Rios falls in this equation.)

Chicago's reputation as an aging team was reversed somewhat by the loss of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye. However, all credit gained in those moves was lost in the acquisitions of Omar Vizquel, Mark Kotsay, and Ramon Castro to man the bench.

CHONE has four White Sox starters - Buehrle, Peavy, Floyd, and Danks - posting 3.5 WAR seasons. That depth is matched by few teams in this league, if any. The only question is the fifth spot, which will either go to journeyman Freddy Garcia or youngster Dan Hudson.

Since it became a regular division contender in the 2000s, Chicago has always had a steady bullpen. Former Seattle closer JJ Putz will now be setting up Bobby Jenks. The duo will be joined by Matt Thornton and Scott Linebrink.

Detroit Tigers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Carlos Guillen DH
Magglio Ordonez RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Brandon Inge 3B
Gerald Laird C
Scott Sizemore 2B
Adam Everett SS
Austin Jackson CF

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Rick Porcello
Jeremy Bonderman
Max Scherzer
Eddie Bonine
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis


Are the Tigers rebuilding, or aren't they? By letting go of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco in favor of calling up Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore (in addition to trading Edwin Jackson for Max Scherzer), it seems Detroit is favoring the future over the present. Why then sign Johnny Damon. Regardless of how you slice it, this is a batting order whose offense falls off sharply after the top five. Sure Detroit will have a solid defense with Laird, Everett, Inge, and now Damon, but will they hit well enough to match it?

On the bench, Ramon Santiago is back once again as the Tigers utility infielder. Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn will fight for a backup role in the outfield, although both could see decent playing time if age catches up to Ordonez and Damon, or lack of experience catches up to Jackson.

There's Verlander, and then there's everyone else. Handing Rick Porcello the second spot in the rotation is risky, especially since the 21-year-old is due for some regression after an impressive 2009. Jeremy Bonderman and Max Scherzer have locked up rotation spots, although there's some question as to whether the latter is ready yet to be a starter. The fifth spot is still open, although recent indications give the job to Nate Robertson over Bonine or Willis.

The Tigers went outside of the organization to pick up closer Jose Valverde. He'll be set up by Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay, Zach Miner, and former Yankee Phil Coke. Daniel Schlereth, a top prospect and son of the ESPN football commentator, will also try to win a spot in the bullpen.

Kansas City Royals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Scott Podsednik LF
David DeJesus RF
Rick Ankiel CF
Jose Guillen DH
Billy Butler 1B
Alberto Callaspo/Chris Getz 2B
Alex Gordon 3B
Jason Kendall C
Yuniesky Betancourt SS

Rotation
Zack Greinke
Gil Meche
Luke Hochevar
Kyle Davies
Brian Bannister
Robinson Tejada


The Royals claim to preach getting on base. But then they surround their homegrown talent with signings like Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, and Yuneski Betancourt. Even Rick Ankiel isn't the hitter he once was. Go figure, then, that David DeJesus, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon are the only players CHONE predicts to play above replacent level this year.

As with most mediocre teams, the Royals have a number of so-so players fighting it out for bench spots. Mike Aviles, Mitch Maier, super-utilityman Willie Bloomquist, and White Sox castoffs Josh Fields and Brian Anderson all look to make the club this year.

In 2009, Zack Greinke had a legitimate argument for league MVP. This year, he'll look to make another run at the trophy that has traditionally gone to position players. Supporting him are decent starters in Meche, Hochevar, and Bannister, and passible candidates in Davies and Tejada.

Rule V pickup Joakim Soria surpassed everyone's expectations. But for every Soria there are dozens of Kyle Farnsworths, Juan Cruzes, and Anthony Lerews - players moved to relief because they could never live up to the hype.

Friday, March 19, 2010

MLB Preview #5
National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Skip Schumaker 2B
Colby Rasmus CF
Albert Pujols 1B
Matt Holliday LF
Ryan Ludwick RF
Yadier Molina C
David Freese 3B
Brendan Ryan SS

Rotation
Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter
Kyle Lohse
Brad Penny
Kyle McClellan


One all world player (Pujols), one All Star (Holliday), one above average hitter (Ludwick), and average production from the rest of the lineup. That's the recipe for a division championship.

Predictably, Tony Larussa has stocked his bench with veterans, in this case Jason LaRue at catcher and Felipe Lopez and Julio Lugo in the infield. There's not much depth in the outfield, although presumably Skip Schumaker can move back there while Lopez or Lugo mans the keystone sack. Lopez and Lugo can become key pieces of this team, with the relative inexperience of all Cardinals infielders not named Albert Pujols. Also of note is that BaseballProjection.com did include Mark McGwire in their prognostication. The 46-year-old "DH" is predicted to have 20 home runs and 155 strike outs in 300+ at bats.

The St. Louis rotation mirrors its lineup in that there are a few stars (2009 Cy Young contenders Wainwright and Carpenter) with average to above average support.

Closer Ryan Franklin may not repeat the breakout success. But if there's one place this club has outstanding depth, it's in the bullpen. (Remember that this club could afford to trade two future closers for half a season's worth of Mark DeRosa.) Franklin will be aided by Jason Motte, Dennys Reyes, and whichever young arms fail to capture the last spot in the rotation.

Milwaukee Brewers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rickie Weeks 2B
Corey Hart RF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Casey McGehee 3B
Greg Zaun C
Carlos Gomez CF
Alcides Escobar SS

Rotation
Yovani Gallardo
Randy Wolf
Doug Davis
Jeff Suppan
Manny Parra
David Bush


By trading JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez, the Brewers essentially gave away one good bat for two good gloves. In getting Gomez, the Brewers got a player whose defense is comparable to the man he replaces, Mike Cameron. However, Gomez' bat still needs his work. (Based on current skill, the Twins were wise to give him up and keep Denard Span.) But by getting rid of Hardy, Milwaukee was also able to move Alcides Escobar's glove into the starting lineup. Now they must hope that Corey Hart, Ryan Braun, and Prince Fielder (and eventually Mat Gamel, when he replaces McGehee) can hit enough to balance the offense and defense.

The Brewers bench features three of my personal cheeseballs, infielders Craig Counsell and Joe Inglett, and outfielder Jody Gerut.

In the starting rotation, rising star Yovani Gallardo will be supported by a number of National League veterans. As always, the Brewers may need to add another starting pitcher or two if they want to make the playoffs.

The Brewers bullpen is a good mix of young and veteran talent. Trevor Hoffman is back as the team's closer, supported by LaTroy Hawkins, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and David Riske. Also looking to make the team after a cup of coffee last year is John Axford. Axford started his college career at Notre Dame before graduating from Canisius. (Man does this club like to stock up on former Irish, Indians, and Twins players or what?)

Chicago Cubs

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Alfonso Soriano LF
Ryan Theriot SS
Derrek Lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Geovany Soto C
Marlon Byrd CF
Kosuke Fukudome RF
Mike Fontenot 2B

Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wells
Tom Gorzelanny
Jeff Samardzija
Carlos Silva


Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto are a good core to build around, but the rest of the pieces just aren't there. Marlon Byrd was a solid pickup, but he's no Matt Holliday. How long can the Cubs wait before they blow things up and start again with Starlin Castro and his contemporaries?

Like Byrd, Xavier Nady was a solid outfield pickup, and he'll likely platoon with Fukudome in the outfield. Returning for the Cubbies are Koyie Hill, Micah Hoffpauir, Jeff Baker, and Andres Blanco.

Chicago's rotation is in very good shape, at least, headlined by Zambrano, Lilly, and Dempster. Wells and Gorzelanny were two more good acquisitions, the latter yet another Pirates pitcher who struggled as a erstwhile ace but who should do quite well in the back of the rotation where he belongs. Jeff Samardzija does have a chance at a rotation spot at some point this season, but if he loses out to Carlos Silva at this point, The Shark should probably consider a return to the gridiron.

Carlos Marmol has settled in as the Cubs closer, despite lingering questions about his control. Marmol will be aided by John Grabow, Sean Marshall, Justin Berg, and whichever starters listed above do not make the rotation.

Cincinnati Reds

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Drew Stubbs CF
Orlando Cabrera SS
Joey Votto 1B
Brandon Phillips 2B
Scott Rolen 3B
Jay Bruce RF
Chris Dickerson/Jonny Gomes LF
Ramon Hernandez C

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Aroldis Chapman
Justin Lehr
Matt Maloney
Edinson Volquez


Cincinnati made some "win now" moves in acquiring Orlando Cabrera and Scott Rolen, despite the fact that they weren't that close to being contenders before the moves were made. Regardless, the Reds have managed to upgrade both their offense and defense in the process. The Reds defense was also improved by naming Drew Stubbs the starting center fielder. Not only is Stubbs a stud center fielder, but he also assures that Jay Bruce stays in right field, where he will be more of a defensive asset. In left, Cincinnati can play Chris Dickerson for defense and Jonny Gomes for offense when need be. Oh, and speaking of studs, Joey Votto is a machine at the plate.

Veteran Aaron Miles will be the utility infielder, although expect to see some time from Paul Janish as well. After a brief but impressive stint at shortstop in 2009, Janish expected to have the starting job locked up this year - until the Reds acquired Cabrera. So Janish may be playing with something to prove. Also playing with something to prove are Wladimir Balentien and Laynce Nix, who are fighting for the fourth outfielder spot. Balentien is no longer a top prospect, and now he must prove that he's not Cincinnati's next Wily Mo Pena.

Cincinnati's pitching rotation may not have any great starters, but it does have quite a few very good ones. The team will receive a much-needed shot in the arm when Edinson Volquez returns from his injury and Aroldis Chapman is ready for the majors. Until then, Huron High School product Matt Maloney will fight for one of the last rotation spots.

In the bullpen, Francisco Cordero will be supported by veterans Mike Lincoln and Arthur Rhodes, and hitting sensation Micah Owings.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Andrew McCutchen CF
Akinori Iwamura 2B
Garret Jones RF
Jeff Clement 1B
Ryan Doumit C
Andy LaRoche 3B
Lastings Milledge LF
Ronny Cedeno SS

Rotation
Paul Maholm
Zach Duke
Russ Ohlendorf
Charlie Morton
Kevin Hart


It will be a long, slow, process rebuilding the Pirates, but things are starting to move in the right direction. The additions made in the past few months - Iwamura, Clement, Milledge, Cedeno - were minor but positive. That wasn't always a given for the Pirates in the past. The biggest move may have been to name Andrew McCutchen a starter; the center fielder is due for a breakout this year.

The bench is made of young-ish veterans who struggled as starters, but who should do just fine in replacement roles. That list includes Brandon Moss and Ryan Church in the outfield and Bobby Crosby in the infield. Of course, the interesting thing will be to see how long the Pirates can keep top prospects Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez off the field.

As mentioned above, the Pirates rotation is normally staffed with players more comfortable as fourth or fifth starters. But players like Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton will try to be the exception to the rule this year.

Like his mentor Mark Shapiro, it appears that Pirates GM Neal Huntington isn't quite sure how to put together a bullpen. Instead of relying on the arms already in the system, Huntington went out to acquire Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, DJ Carrasco, and Frontier League veteran Brendan Donnelly.

Houston Astros

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Michael Bourn CF
Kaz Matsui 2B
Lance Berkman 1B
Carlos Lee LF
Hunter Pence RF
Pedro Feliz 3B
JR Towles C
Tommy Manzella SS

Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Bud Norris
Brett Myers
Felipe Paulino
Brian Moehler


Call the Astros the "Cardinals Lite." Like St. Louis, Houston is a team based on a few stars surrounded by role players, as opposed to a balanced set. But Houston's stars and role players just don't match up with the Cards'. Adding someone just because they were a World Champion (Feliz) doesn't help when he was one of the weaker starters. The position to watch here is the starting catcher spot. Will it go to JR Towles, the top prospect from a few years ago, or Juan Castro, the top prospect of the future?

Coming off the bench to man all three outfield spots will be Jason Michaels. On the infield, Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger will fight over playing time and the correct spelling of their first name. Keppinger can see increased playing time in the middle of the diamond if either Manzella or Matsui falter.

At least the Astros have two legit aces to ride in Oswalt and Rodriguez. But whose idea was it to put Randy Wells, Randy Wolf, and Brett Myers in the same division? For whatever reason, I always get those three guys confused.

Complementing the Oswalt-Rodriguez one-two punch is the one-two bullpen punch of closers Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom.

Friday, March 05, 2010

MLB Preview #3
National League East

Atlanta Braves

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Nate McClouth CF
Melky Cabrera LF
Martin Prado 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Troy Glaus 1B
Brian McCann C
Yunel Escobar SS
Matt Diaz RF

Rotation
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Tommy Hanson
Tim Hudson
Kenshin Kawakami


The Braves may not have any Mark Teixeira-level superstars anymore. But what they do have is a lineup with above-average players at every single position. That's certainly nothing to be ashamed of, and it's part of the reason why CHONE has Atlanta unseating Philadelphia in the NL East. Everyone on the infield can flat-out rake the ball, and Escobar is one of the game's most underrated defenders at shortstop. The outfield isn't too bad either.

Speaking of the outfield, that's where the true depth on this team lies. Looking to make the roster are veteran Eric Hinske and a youth movement in Gregor Blanco and Jordan Schafer. Of course, none of those outfielders' jobs are safe once top prospect Jayson Heyward is ready for the bigs.

Or perhaps Atlanta's depth lies in its starting rotation. Who else can trade away a Cy Young Candidate in Javier Vazquez and still march out a starting rotation that's expected to be 12.6 wins above replacement? Jurrjens, Hanson, Schafer, and Heyward are the youth movement that will start the Braves next run of playoff appearances.

The only question on this team is the bullpen. Do closer Billy Wagner and setup man Takashi Saito have anything left in the tank? Can former starters Kris Medlen and Jo-Jo Reyes and a group of no-names bridge the gap between those talented starters and the veteran finishers?

Philadelphia Phillies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Placido Polanco 3B
Carlos Ruiz C

Rotation
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Joe Blanton
JA Happ
Jamie Moyer
Antonio Bastardo
Kyle Kendrick


The Phillies lineup is in stark contrast with the Braves. Whereas Atlanta is a decent from top to bottom, Philadelphia features one superstar (Chase Utley), two stars (Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth), and a supporting cast of so-so players.

The Phillies bench features a number of National League veterans in Brian Schneider, Juan Castro, Greg Dobbs, and Ross Gload, as well as outfielders Ben Francisco and John Mayberry.

Of course, who needs a stacked batting lineup when you have Roy Halladay and a very good starting cast? The Phillies rotation may be a little top-heavy, but as soon as a fifth starter settles in, this team will be set.

Brad Lidge once again leads a bullpen that was disappointing at best in 2009. But all the regulars are back - Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Chad Durbin - with the addition of Danys Baez.

New York Mets

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jose Reyes SS
Luis Castillo 2B
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Jason Bay LF
Daniel Murphy 1B
Jeff Francouer RF
Rod Barajas/Omir Santos C

Rotation
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Jon Niese
Fernando Nieve


The core of Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran is still intact. But the supporting players aren't quite as good as they once were. Sure, Jason Bay can hit, but can he hit - and field - in a larger outfield? Will Daniel Murphy and Jeff Francouer finally blossom, or continue to struggle? Who is waiting in the wings to help?

The Mets bench features a laundry list of backup catchers, including Henry Blanco and Chris Coste. On the infield there's Alex Cora, Anderson Hernandez, and the ageless Fernando Tatis. New to the outfield is Gary Matthews, whose ego has lived up to his big contract (he wants to start and bat leadoff), but whose talent hasn't.

The rotation is a bright spot for the Mets, with Pelfrey, Maine, and Niese all on the right side of 30, and Santana due for a bounceback season. Playing in a pitcher's park doesn't hurt, either.

In the bullpen, Francisco Rodriguez is back and will be supported by veterans Kelvim Escobar, Pedro Feliciano, and Nelson Figueroa.

Florida Marlins

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Chris Coghlan LF
Cameron Maybin CF
Hanley Ramirez SS
Jorge Cantu 3B
Dan Uggla 2B
Gaby Sanchez 1B
Cody Ross RF
John Baker C

Rotation
Josh Johnson
Ricky Nolasco
Anibal Sanchez
Sean West
Chris Volstad
Rick VandenHurk
Andrew Miller


Hanlery Ramirez is still a star, and his glove is respectable enough to keep him at short. Dan Uggla is a proven commodity. Chris Coghlan is a rising start with the bat, and now he only needs to find a position. In Cameron Maybin, the Miguel Cabrera trade is finally starting to pay off. Maybin was always a plus defender, and now his bat is starting to come around as well.

Supersubs Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms highlight a bench that sees catcher Ronny Paulino settle into a backup role.

Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco broke out last year, but they'll need help this year. What the Florida rotation lacks in quality, it makes up for in quantity. It may be a case of riding the hot hands, as they did quite successfully last year.

Leo Nunez enters his second season as the Marlins closer. He'll be joined in the bullpen by Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, Hayden Penn, and Taylor Tankersly - four prospects whose careers plateaued after promising starts.

Washington Nationals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Christian Guzman SS
Ivan Rodriguez C
Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Adam Dunn 1B
Elijah Dukes RF
Josh Willingham LF
Adam Kennedy 2B
Nyjer Morgan CF

Rotation
Jason Marquis
John Lannan
Scott Olsen
Garrett Mock
Craig Stammen
JD Martin


Slowly but surely, the Nats are improving. The main problem with their lineup is that they have a number of guys (Guzman, Rodriguez, Kennedy, and Morgan) who could bat in the one and two spots, but probably shouldn't. It will be interesting to see how that shakes down. Morgan's speed helps make him a great defensive player, but it doesn't make him a leadoff hitter. Guzman, Rodriguez, and Kennedy may be known for their contact skills, but don't undervalue the ability to actually get on base. The middle of the lineup shouldn't have any issues, though. Zimmerman and Dunn will continue to hit well. Dukes and Willingham have enjoyed the change of scenery so far, and they both should continue to improve.

The Washington bench features catchers Wil Nieves and Jesus Flores, former Seattle prospect Mike Morse, and ageless utilityman Willie Harris. Top position prospect Ian Desmon will try to break camp in a utility role after an impressive 2009 debut.

Like the Marlins, the Nationals rotation is one of quantity over quality. When Chien-Ming Wang, Jordann Zimmermann, and Stephen Strasburg are ready to join the discussion, that will certainly help Washington's case.

Matt Capps has made a career out of closing for bad teams. He'll be aided by the likes of former Yankees Brian Bruney and Tyler Clippard.

Friday, February 26, 2010

MLB Previews #2
American League West

Texas Rangers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ian Kinsler 2B
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton LF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz RF
Chris Davis 1B
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Elvis Andrus SS
Julio Borbon CF

Rotation
Rich Harden
Scott Feldman
Colby Lewis
Derek Holland
Brandon McCarthy
Tommy Hunter
Matt Harrison
Dustin Nippert
Doug Mathis
Neftali Feliz


In essence, he who owns Vald Guerrero owns the AL West. After a surprising run to 87 wins last year, the Rangers are a trendy pick to unseat the Angels in 2010. This team can no doubt hit, and if Guerrero can stay healthy he'll add to Arlington's trademark offense. If Julio Borbon can maintain his OBP over the course of a full season, they'll have a great leadoff hitter to complement the power in the rest of the lineup.

The Rangers are still stacked at catcher, with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez backing up Saltalamacchia. None of those three may reach the ceiling they were once thought to have, but together they're still a respectable MLB-caliber unit. Speaking of players who never lived up to their ceiling, NCAA hit king Khalil Greene joins the team
as a utility infielder. One player who hopes to avoid the "bust" tag is future first baseman Justin Smoak, who's just the tip of the iceberg for one of the best minor league systems in baseball today.

Rich Harden is always a great pickup if he can stay healthy, but that's a big if. Fortunately, a pair of no-names in Scott Feldman and Colby Lewis are expected to put up solid numbers this year. Oh, and there's also that Neftali Feliz guy, who was lights-out in the bullpen last year and is the Rangers ace-in-training.

Frank Francisco, a longtime Rangers setup man who became their closer last year, returns to the stopper role. He'll be supported by a number of bullpen mainstays, including Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Willie Eyre and former Orioles closer Chris Ray.

Los Angeles Angels

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Howie Kendrick 2B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Kendry Morales 1B
Juan Rivera LF
Hideki Matsui DH
Mike Napoli C
Brandon Wood 3B
Erick Aybar SS

Rotation
Ervin Santana
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
Scott Kazmir
Joel Piniero
Matt Palmer
Sean O'Sullivan
Trevor Bell
Anthony Ortega


Honestly, I'm not sure who the Angels leadoff hitter will be. Abreu is probably idea for that spot, but he's shied away from it in the past in favor of being a run producer. The trade of Chone Figgins is great news for Brandon Wood, who finally gets a starting spot after being blocked by Erick Aybar and others at short for many years. The addition of Hideki Matsui is great for the batting order, but perhaps not so much for the defensive lineup, since neither he nor Juan Rivera should be playing much outfield at all these days.

Fortunately, the Angels have never been short on utility outfielders. Reggie Willits is still with the club, and should see decent playing time as a defensive replacement, and when the aging outfielders need a day off. Macier Izturis is putting together a respectable career as a utility infielder, and he too should see good playing time if one of the starters should happen to falter.

If anything gets the Angels to the division crown again this year, it's their rotation. After a few rough patches, Ervin Santana and Jeff Weaver have settled down as reliable starters. Joe Saunders and Joel Piniero are workhorses. And former ace Scott Kazmir could be a steal. Not many teams can boast this much quality from all five spots in their rotation.

Of course, bullpen strength has also been a trademark of the Angels in the 2000s. Brian Fuentes returns as the team's closer, aided by ageless wonders Scot Shields and Rudy Seanez. Fireballer Fernando Rodney also gives the team a new, intriguing weapon out of the pen.

Oakland Athletics

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Coco Crisp CF
Rajai Davis LF
Jack Cust DH
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Kurt Suzuki C
Ryan Sweeney RF
Daric Barton 1B
Mark Ellis 2B
Cliff Pennington SS

Rotation
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Ben Sheets
Justin Ducherer
Vin Mazzaro
Dallas Braden
Gio Gonzalez
Josh Outman
Clayton Mortensen


Speed and defense are the new market inefficiency. The A's got both in new centerfielder Coco Crisp. Kevin Kouzmanoff highlights a laundry list of never-has-beens trying to win the third base job. He'll be competing with Jake Fox and Dallas McPherson to take over Eric Chavez's job. (Chavez, of course, fell a little short of his own potential thanks to injuries.)

In addition to the third basemen-a-plenty, Oakland's bench also features journeyman outfielder Gabe Gross.

Like its across-the-bay counterparts, the A's will look for their young, talented pitching staff to carry a questionable offense. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are two of the best up-and-coming arms in the game. They'll be joined by Ben Sheets, who went from a perennial Cy Young candidate to a forgotten man after he lost all of 2009 with an injury. Among those fighting for the last few spots in the rotation is be-stirruped wonder Josh Outman.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland's token All Star from last year, returns as the closer. He'll be joined by talented setup men Brad Ziegler and Mike Wuertz, as well as Indians castoffs Craig Breslow and Jon Meloan.

Seattle Mariners

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ichiro Suzuki RF
Chone Figgins 3B
Milton Bradley LF
Ken Griffey, Jr DH
Jose Lopez 2B
Casey Kotchman 1B
Rob Johnson C
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Jack Wilson SS

Rotation
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
Doug Fister
Luke French
Jason Vargas
Anthony Varvaro
Edward Paredes
Ryan Feierabend
Garrett Olson


Regression is a cruel mistress. Seattle, the sabermetric darlings, won 85 games last year. They then made some major upgrades. And yet it looks like they'll struggle to top .500 this year. If they do finish with a losing record, it won't be because of the bat of Milton Bradley (assuming he stays healthy and calm), the gloves of Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, or the all-around play of Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins. It's up to the rest of the lineup to come through for the Mariners.

Seattle's bench features backup outfielders Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans. Both should be ready to serve as defensive replacements for Bradley, and as injury replacements when Bradley and Griffey go down. Ryan Garko could also see some time at DH if Griffey struggles, or at first base if Kotchman has trouble handling lefties. Waiting in the wings - and waiting to find a position - is top prospect Dustin Ackley. But perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself, since Ackley is at least a year away from the bigs.

Seattle may now have the best left-right/one-two punch in the majors. If Erik Bedard can return to a level anywhere near his success with the Orioles, this team won't even need to hit to win games. But even if Bedard can't, this is still a very good rotation from top-to-bottom, with Rowland-Smith and a rejuvenated Ian Snell taking the last two spots. There's also plenty of depth, especially with Lorain County native Ryan Feierabend once again waiting in the wings after missing all of 2009 with an injury.

The old joke is that David Aardsma is ahead of Hank Aaron in the record books... alphabetically. Aardsma is also Seattle's closer. He'll be joined in the bullpen by swingman Brandon Morrow and a largely untested group of relievers.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

MLB Previews #1
National League West

Once again, we kick off the MLB preview with the NL West. Teams are ordered by their CHONE projected standings from BaseballProjection.com.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rafael Furcal SS
Matt Kemp CF
Andre Ethier RF
Manny Ramirez LF
James Loney 1B
Casey Blake 3B
Ronnie Belliard 2B
Russell Martin C

Rotation
Clayton Kershaw
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Vincente Padilla
James McDonald
Eric Stults
Charlie Haeger


This is how you put together a lineup: start with homegrown talent (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), and fill in the holes with talented veterans. Nothing to complain about here, except maybe the continued employment of Ronnie Belliard. But then again it's hard to complain about a middle infielder who's consistently put up an OPS around .750.

If Belliard doesn't perform, Blake DeWitt is once again waiting in the wings. As is new acquisition Jamey Carroll, who quietly gets on base and plays solid infield defense. Fellow new acquisitions Brad Ausmus and Reed Johnson help fill out the bench and increase the team's scrappy white guy quotient. Ausmus will tutor Russ Martin and a relatively young pitching staff, while Johnson will back up all three outfield positions.

The top of the Dodgers rotation is set with Kershaw, Billingsley, and Kuroda. But with all LA has done to improve their lineup, one has to wonder whether they'll pick up another starting pitcher this season to take their team to the next level. Unless, of course, Padilla, Haeger, and Stults make that unnecessary.

Jonathan Broxton returns as the Dodgers closer, aided by Hong-Chih Kuo, former Orioles George Sherrill, and presumably whichever talented youngsters not in the rotation.

Colorado Rockies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dexter Fowler CF
Carlos Gonzalez LF
Todd Helton 1B
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Bradley Hawpe RF
Ian Stewart 3B
Chris Iannetta C
Clint Barmes 2B

Rotation
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jeff Francis
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Franklin Morales


Fear not, Rockies fans: CHONE predicts the Rockies to at least tie the Dodgers for first in the West. But they'll be doing it in a different way. Gone are the Blake Street Bombers of old, and here are a new mixture of speed, power, and contact in Colorado. The centerpiece of this team is Troy Tulowitzki, well on his way to becoming a household name. He's joined by speed at the top in Fowler and Gonzalez, power at the bottom in Hawpe, Stewart, and Iannetta, and the machine that is Todd Helton. Helton's power may be gone these days, but he still gets on base like no one else.

Colorado has filled its bench with players who are too old for everyday jobs, but who have a chance to shine in more limited roles. Jason Giambi is back as a left-handed pinch hitter, Melvin Mora is essentially the new utility man, and Miguel Olivo is a serviceable veteran backstop.

As strange as it may sound, Colorado's strength may be its starting rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez is, like Troy Tulowitzki, on path to become a star. He's helped out by Aaron Cook and the return of Jeff Francis. Francis missed all of 2009 with an injury, but prior to Jimenez' arrival, it was he who was the Rockies ace-in-training. And then there's Franklin Morales, who hopes to be the next prospect to make the ace reliever-to-ace starter transition.

If Morales can't hack it as a starter (and he probably can), he'll join a talented cast in the bullpen. The Rockies got an established closer in Huston Street, albeit one with consistency issues. But they also surrounded him with talented veteran setup men like Manny Corpas and Rafael Betancourt. All-in-all, this is a very balanced team.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Kelly Johnson 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Justin Upton RF
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Miguel Montero C
Conor Jackson LF
Chris Young CF

Rotation
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Edwin Jackson
Billy Buckner
Ian Kennedy
Kevin Mulvey
Bryan Augenstein


Third place looks appropriate for this team. They're still young, and still seem to favor power over getting on base. That tendency for power over contact seems to be reflected in the acquisition of Adam LaRoche. Offsetting that to some extent though is the signing of Kelly Johnson, a good all-around player.

Outside of Augie Ojeda, Arizona's bench is, like its lineup, a young one. Chris Snyder returns as a backup catcher after losing his job to Miguel Montero. Tony Abreu and Ryan Roberts will fight for a backup infield job. Gerardo Parra will fill in at all three outfield positions as the team continues to groom him for the future.

The Diamondbacks made a curious move early in the offseason when they traded two of their top prospects for Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. Critics were confused, and quickly grapsed for explanations. Maybe the D-backs are trying to win it all now? Maybe they know something about the prospects that they're not letting on? That all remains to be seen. Edwin Jackson's 2008 looked like a fluke, but then he backed it up in 2009. The 1-2-3 rotation spots on every team in this division are loaded with talent, and if Jackson can repeat his success in 2010, Arizona will be as good as any of its rivals.

Arizona's bullpen is a Who's Who of journeyman NL relievers, featuring Chad Qualls at closer and Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman setting him up. Moustached American of the Year Clay Zavada will also be working relief for the Diamondbacks this year.

San Diego Padres

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Everth Cabrera SS
David Eckstein 2B
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Chase Headley 3B
Nick Hundley C
Kyle Blanks LF
Scott Hairston CF
Will Venable RF

Rotation
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Jon Garland
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos
Wade LeBlanc
Tim Stauffer
Edward Mujica
Cesar Carrillo
Cesar Ramos


This is still a rebuilding team. But Adrian Gonzalez will keep 'em coming to the ballpark, as will heir apparent Kyle Blanks. Chase Headley will continue to grow as well. The big question here, of course, is whether the Friars will hold on to Gonzalez or trade him for prospects who can replace the aging placeholders in the lineup.

San Diego signed NL West Yorvit Torrealba as the backup catcher. Scott Hairston's brother Jerry is slated to be the utility infielder. And Tony Gwynn, Jr. will once again try to earn a reserve spot on the team that made his dad famous.

There are glimmers of hope in the Padres rotation. Young talents like Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, and Wade LeBlanc look to join steady veterans like Chris Young and Jon Garland. Of course, playing in the best pitchers' park in the league will certainly help their numbers, if not their development.

Heath Bell returns as one of the best closers in the game. He has to be, because he doesn't have much in the way of help. Bell is another player whose time may be short in San Diego; I'm sure many are suprised that he hasn't been traded yet.

San Francisco Giants

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Aaron Rowand CF
Edgar Renteria SS
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Bengie Molina C
Aubrey Huff 1B
Mark DeRosa LF
Freddy Sanchez 2B
Nate Schierholtz RF

Rotation
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Joe Martinez


What do you get when you combine a lineup built for 2005 with a rotation built for 2012? A team that crashes back down to earth following a suprise run at the playoffs. So it goes with this year's Giants. San Francisco added Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff and brought back Bengie Molina. DeRosa is a great complementary player on a playoff team, and I'm sure that's why the Giants brought him in. But this probably isn't a playoff team. Meanwhile, Huff and Molina's offensive value has all but vanished with age, as has Sanchez and Rowand's (assuming Rowand had any to begin with). The saving grace of this lineup is Kung Fu Panda Sandoval.

Another saving grace of this team is catcher Buster Posey. In an ideal world, Bengie Molina is only keeping the tools of ignorance warm until Posey takes them over. Of course, this is far from an ideal world.

A Cy Young winner, another guy in the race, and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball - all under the age of 26. Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner again have their work cut out for them. They'll have help from guys like Jonathan Sanchez, but how much help the offense can give remains to be seen.

Brian Wilson returns as the Giants closer. He's joined by Jeremy Affeldt and a cast of young nobodies.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

MLB Previews #6
American League Central

Cleveland Indians

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Grady Sizemore CF
Mark DeRosa 3B
Travis Hafner DH
Victor Martinez C
Jhonny Peralta SS
Shin-Soo Choo RF
Ryan Garko 1B
Ben Francisco RF
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B

Rotation
Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Carl Pavano
Scott Lewis
Anthony Reyes
Jeremy Sowers
Aaron Laffey
Zach Jackson
Jake Westbrook


After a bittersweet 2007 and a disastrous 2008, the Indians are predicted to win the Central in 2009. That's thanks in no small part to their offense - one that scored 800 runs last year despite prolonged injuries to third and fourth hitters Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez. Martinez is back, as is Hafner to an unknown extent, and they're joined by legit two-hole hitter Mark DeRosa. DeRosa and Kelly Shoppach give the Indians infield flexibility. DeRosa can play second or third (or outfield), which gives Cleveland the chance to decide what they want to do with Jhonny Peralta and Asdrubal Cabrera defensively. For the time being, Peralta will remain at third and Cabrera at second, with DeRosa playing third. Meanwhile, Kelly Shoppach has proven himself to be an everyday catcher, even if he won't have a chance in that role this year. He will have plenty of chances to play though, and give Victor Martinez opportunities at first base and DH. In the outfield, Grady Sizemore is joined by Ben Francisco and the emerging Shin-Soo Choo. To some, Francisco is just a placeholder until Matt LaPorta arrives, but Francisco is still a solid ballplayer in his own right.

On the bench, Jamey Carroll returns as a versatile utility infielder with good on base skills. Speaking of versatility, former up-and-coming second baseman Josh Barfield appears to have made the 2009 club out of spring training after adding third base and all three outfield spots to his repertoire. David Dellucci will fight for playing time in the outfield, but with guys like Choo, Francisco, LaPorta, Trevor Crowe, and Michael Brantley waiting in the wings (and Barfield, Carroll, and LaPorta's ability to play outfield), Dellucci's days in Cleveland may be numbered.

To some extent, Cleveland's starting rotation looks good on paper, but it relies on some faith and optimism. No one expects Cliff Lee to repeat his 2008 performance, but the hope is that he'll pitch at least as well as he did prior to his 2007 collapse. Fausto Carmona dominated in 2007, but then the league learned to be patient and ride out his control problems. Now the ball's back in Carmona's court when it comes to making adjustments. Carl Pavano, it appears, is healthy again, and the Indians hope he can repeat the flashes of brilliance he showed with the Expos and Marlins. Rounding out the rotation are Scott Lewis and Anthony Reyes, two pleasant surprises in 2008 who look to repeat in 2009. If they cannot, Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Zach Jackson and a host of others are waiting in the wings. Jake Westbrook will also be a much needed shot in the arm when he returns from Tommy John rehab in June.

As Michael Taylor of Baseball Digest put it, "it's an odd year, so the Indians bullpen must be good. After a horrendous 2008, Cleveland made active strides to improve their bullpen, signing closer Kerry Wood and trading for setup man Joe Smith. Joining Wood and Smith are the two bright spots from 2008, bulldog interim closer Jensen Lewis and left setup maestro Rafael Perez. Rafael Betancourt is also back, and will look to rebound from arm troubles that limited his speed and effectiveness in 2008.

Detroit Tigers

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Curtis Granderson CF
Placido Polanco 2B
Carlos Guillen LF
Magglio Ordonez RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Gary Sheffield DH
Gerald Laird C
Brandon Inge 3B
Adam Everett SS

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Edwin Jackson
Armando Galarraga
Jeremy Bonderman
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis


Detroit's projected lineup is an interesting mix of on base skills, power, and defense. The batting order breaks down pretty neatly that way too - the top three guys get on, the next three hit them in, and the final three are mostly there for defense. Of course, Carbera and Ordonez are quality on base guys too, and Laird is a fairly good hitting catcher. But it's not often you see an offense broken down so neatly.

Detroit's bench features the same familiar names Tigers fans are used to - Ramon Santiago in the infield, and Brent Clevlen, Ryan Raburn, Marcus Thames, and Clete Thomas in the outfield. Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge give the Tigers some position flexibility, which may mean increased playing time for Marcus Thames. Of course, with Guillen moving to the outfield this year, it may mean plenty of playing time for one of the other outfield backups as a defensive replacements. Inge, meanwhile, may not need to strap on the tools of ignorance this season, as Detroit has found a capable backup in Matt Treanor, husband of some Olympic volleyball player you may have heard of.

Baseball Prospectus expects fairly good things for Detroit's pitching staff, predicting they will lead the division with only 777 runs surrendered. But that may come as little comfort to Tigers fans. For starters, Detroit has taken Edwin Jackson - the odd man out in Tampa Bay's rotation - and made him their No. 2 starter. They're also expecting fairly big things from last year's surprise ace Armando Galarraga. "Young veterans" Verlander and Bonderman have had their ups and downs, but they'll have to pitch well to get Detroit back in the playoffs.

When none of their young fireballers could hold down the closer's role, Detroit acquired experienced stopper Brandon Lyon. Lyon will be supported by two of those fireballers - Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya, familiar face Bobby Seay, and young veteran Zach Miner.

Kansas City Royals

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Coco Crisp CF
David DeJesus LF
Mark Teahen 2B
Jose Guillen RF
Mike Jacobs 1B
Alex Gordon 3B
Billy Butler DH
Miguel Olivo C
Mike Aviles SS

Rotation
Gil Meche
Zack Greinke
Kyle Davies
Brian Bannister
Luke Hochevar
Horacio Ramirez
Sidney Ponson
John Bale


Yes, that's the Kansas City Royals that Baseball Prospectus has in first place, two games ahead of last year's division winner and tied with the team that took that division winner to a one-game playoff. The Royals are a team on the rise, but at the same time they seem to match every good move with a baffling one. Good move: trading for Coco Crisp to move David DeJesus down toward the heart of the lineup and out of center field. Baffling move: trading for Mike Jacobs, a guy who hits for some power but who doesn't get on base and doesn't play good defense. Good move: getting Mike Aviles and in the lineup. Baffling move: trying Mark Teahen at second base, especially with the aforementioned poor fielding Jacobs at first. Of course, you do have to give the Royals credit for doing what it takes to put all their best bats on the field.

Bonus baffling move: signing Willie Bloomquist. Bloomquist plays at least average defense at every position, and he's a good piece to have on a contending ballclub. But a team like the Royals have much more important things to spend their money on. John Buck will back up Miguel Olivo, and the starting nod will probably go to whomever is hitting better at the time. Tony Pena, Jr. was statistically the worst offensive player in baseball last season, and this year he'll fight to keep a job with the parent club. Maybe the Royals should think of moving him to pitcher. In one mound appearance last season, Pena threw in the low 90s with decent movement. Imagine how he'd do with the proper training and practice.

One of the big reasons for Kansas City's predicted success is its stockpile of young, talented pitching. Gil Meche was a baffling move ($55 million free agent signing) that turned into a brilliant move. Meche is joined in the rotation by homegrown talent in Zack Greinke and Luke Hochevar and crafty trade acquisition Brian Bannister.

Good move, bullpen addition: picking up Joakim Soria in the 2008 Rule V draft and making him a closer. Baffling move, bullpen edition: throwing millions of dollars at Kyle Farnsworth. Sure he throws hard, but there's a reason why Major League hitters are the best in the world: they'll catch up to speed eventually. Fortunately, Kansas City does have some other versatile arms in their bullpen, including Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay, Joel Peralta, Robinson Tejada, Jamey Wright, Brandon Duckworth, and Doug Waechter.

Minnesota Twins

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Denard Span/Delmon Young LF
Carlos Gomez CF
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Mike Cuddyer/Denard Span RF
Jason Kubel DH
Joe Crede 3B
Alexi Casilla 2B
Nick Punto SS

Rotation
Francisco Liriano
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Glen Perkins
Nick Blackburn


The Twins have always been over-infatuated with slap hitters, but they've always seemed to make it work, especially in the Metrodome. It'll be interesting to see how playing time shakes down in the outfield, especially considering that to date, Denard Span is basically a better version of Carlos Gomez. Minnesota had been looking for a third baseman since the middle of last year, and they found one in Joe Crede. The Twins left side of the infield will rival Detroit's in terms of its defense first, offense second mentality. As always, the offense will revolve around Justin Morneau (this generation's Don Mattingly?) and Joe Mauer, and as always Minnesota's main concern will be keeping Mauer healthy.

If Mauer can't stay healthy, Mike Redmond has always been a capable backup. On the infield, the utility spots are up for grabs between Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert.

Minnesota has been a factory of young pitching talent for the past two decades. Even with Boof Bonser out for the season, the Twins still have a respectable rotation headlined by Francisco Liriano and featuring Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, and Nick Blackburn.

Joe Nathan is still one of the best closers in the business. As usual, he'll have a great supporting cast. Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are back, as is Craig Breslow, who pitched brilliantly for Minnesota after being released by division rival Cleveland.

Chicago White Sox

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dewayne Wise CF
Chris Getz 2B
Carlos Quentin LF
Jermaine Dye RF
Jim Thome DH
Paul Konerko 1B
AJ Pierzynski C
Alexei Ramirez SS
Josh Fields 3B

Rotation
Mark Buehrle
John Danks
Gavin Floyd
Jose Contreras
Bartolo Colon
Clayton Richard
Jeffrey Marquez


As always, the computers hate the White Sox. Fortunately for Chicago, their combination of small ball and power hitting always seems to outperform the predictions (much as Minnesota's combination of small ball and speed normally does). Chicago's aging core of Dye, Thome, Konerko, and Pierzynski remains intact, with 2008 breakout stars Carlos Quentin and Alexei Ramirez added to the mix. The question is whether this year's new faces - Wise, Getz, and Fields - will hit well enough to keep their spots.

If Wise, Getz, and Fields can't, the White Sox may not have anyone to replace them - unless they want to rush 2008 top draft pick Gordon Beckham to the majors. Outside of new pickup Wilson Betemit, most of Chicago's bench is comprised of players whose bats never developed enough to become everyday players. That mix includes Brent Lillibridge, Colorado castoff Jayson Nix, Jerry Owens, and Brian Anderson. (Arguably, Betemit may belong in this category as well.)

After trading away Javier Vazquez, questions begin to creep in concerning Chicago's starting rotation. Mark Buehrle is a stalwart ace. But behind him are too much youth in John Danks and Gavin Floyd, and not enough youth in Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon.

At least the back end of the bullpen won't be a question for the ChiSox. Bobby Jenks is back as the closer, with Octavio Dotel working the eighth and Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton, and DJ Carrasco leading into them.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

MLB Previews #5
National League Central

Chicago Cubs

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Alfonso Soriano LF
Ryan Theriot SS
Derrek Lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Milton Bradley RF
Geovany Soto C
Mike Fontenot 2B
Kosuke Fukudome/Reed Johnson CF

Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Rich Harden
Sean Marshall
Aaron Heilman
Jeff Samardzija


The Cubs won 97 games last year, and they may have actually found a way to improve. The major addition is Milton Bradley. Bradley isn't capable of playing 162 games at DH, much less in the field, so Kosuke Fukodome and Reed Johnson will get their fair share of at bats. Still, the number of at bats for each will be below 600, and in the end that reduced workload should pay off for the Cubs. There's still some debate about Alfonso Soriano's ideal location in the batting order, but at this point in his career, his own comfort level is just as important as anything else.

The loss of Mark DeRosa and Ronny Cedeno makes Chicago exceptionally thin on the infield, especially if Micah Hoffpauir is given a roster spot. Hoffpauir can only play first base and left field. That leaves the utility infield responsibility to Aaron Miles and/or Esteban German. That's little comfort if Ryan Theriot or Mike Fontenot falter. In the outfield, Joey Gathright's speed will try to find some playing time, and at catcher, familiar faces Paul Bako and Koyie Hill will look to back up Geovany Soto.

The continuing theme of these previews is that two pitching aces equals playoff success. If all goes well for the Cubs, they'll have three in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden. Ryan Dempster is a good complementary starter, leaving only the fifth spot in the rotation up for grabs. But there are more than a few capable candidates, including Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman, and Jeff Samardzija.

In the bullpen, the Cubs lost Kerry Wood and may have actually gotten better. Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg both have closing experience. Heilman, Samardzija, and Chad Gaudin are versatile players who can fill any role. And veterans Neal Cotts and Luis Vizcaino round out the staff.

Milwaukee Brewers

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rickie Weeks 2B
JJ Hardy SS
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Corey Hart RF
Bill Hall 3B
Mike Cameron CF
Jason Kendall C

Rotation
Yovani Gallardo
Dave Bush
Jeff Suppan
Manny Parra
Braden Looper
Seth McClung
Carlos Villanueva


The Brewers liked to bat the pitcher eighth at times, but you really can't blame them when they had CC Sabathia and Jason Kendall at the time. Kendall is back, but Sabathia isn't. Bill Hall and Mike Cameron may not be stellar hitters, but they're good role players in a lineup that features Hardy, Braun, Fielder, and Hart. Yes, I included JJ Hardy in that list - he doesn't get much hype, but he's a very good hitter for his position.

Milwaukee's bench is highlighted by Tony Gwynn, Jr. and the veteran Craig Counsell. But for a farm system that has produced (at the time) four quality infielders in Fielder, Weeks, Braun, and Hardy, the surprise is that their best third baseman and middle infielder may still be in the minors. The third baseman is Mat Gamel, who may struggle to stay at that position, and the middle infielder is Alcides Escobar, a shortstop who may supplant Rickie Weeks and second base sooner rather than later. All this after trading away top first baseman Matt LaPorta, too.

Now, the rotation will be a question mark. Yovani Gallardo may have fallen off of a few radars due to injuries, but he's still a talented young pitcher. But relying on converted relievers (Looper and McClung) and some other retreads may not be enough to eclipse the Cubs in this division.

In the bullpen, the Brewers will rely on a bevy of veteran arms. But that's better than the the plan they employed in 2008, marching out a steady supply of post-steroids washups (Eric Gagne and Derrick Turnbow to name a pair). Trevor Hoffman becomes the Milwaukee closer, aided by David Riske, Jorge Julio, and Mark DiFelice.

St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Skip Schumaker 2B
Rick Ankiel CF
Albert Pujols 1B
Ryan Ludwick RF
Troy Glaus 3B
Khalil Greene SS
Yadier Molina C
Chris Duncan LF

Rotation
Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro
Brad Thompson


Outside of Albert Pujols, St. Louis' infield is a question mark. Troy Glaus is always an injury issue, and as it is he won't be ready until mid-April. At shortstop, the Cards acquired Khalil Greene, a record-setting hitter in college who hasn't been able to replicate that success in the majors. Left without a second baseman, Skip Shumacher will try to climb the wrong way up the defensive ladder from outfield to the keystone sack. If Schumacher doesn't work out, St. Louis doesn't have many other options. In the outfield, Ryan Ludwick will try to prove he's not a one-year wonder, aided by Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan, both of whom had respectable years last season.

The top name on the bench is Colby Rasmus, Baseball America's top National League prospect. Rasmus's defense is ready to be an everyday center fielder, and the question is whether his bat is up to speed. If not, he can still serve as a respectable defensive replacement at all three outfield spots. Meanwhile, backing up Yadier Molina is veteran National Leaguer Jason LaRue.

The Cardinals pitching rotation may not feature any big names, but they did find success last season. If Chris Carpenter can return anywhere near is Cy Young form - and some think he can, that will only help this ballclub.

The rotation may have to carry the pitching staff, however, with all the questions in the bullpen. The closer spot is still up in the air, and may go to Ryan Franklin, Jason Motte, Chris Perez. Also fighting for bullpen spots are veterans Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes.

Cincinnati Reds

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Willy Taveras CF
Chris Dickerson LF
Jay Bruce RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Joey Votto 1B
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Ramon Hernandez C
Alex Gonzalez SS

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Micah Owings
Homer Bailey
Ramon Ramirez
Daryl Thompson


Perhaps indicative of this club's manager, only three players in this lineup posted an OBP over .320 last year - Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Chris Dickerson - and Dickerson did so in only 31 games. This team has talent with Bruce, Phillips, and even guys like Ramon Hernandez, but if that club keeps making outs, there's little hope for them.

The key name on Cincinnati's bench is Jeff Keppinger, who performed admirably at shortstop when Alex Gonzalez went down last year. Jerry Hairston, Jr. is a valuable piece who can play several positions. Other names fighting for bench spots fit into the Dusty Baker mold well, sacrificing OBP for speed or pop. Those names include Norris Hopper, Jacque Jones, and Jonny Gomes.

Cincinnati's rotation has some talent, and that talent was somewhat masked by the team's overall poor performance last year. Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Johnny Cueto all lost over 10 games, but posted ERAs under 5. Edinson Volquez had a spectacular season, going 17-6 with an ERA of 3.21. Even slight regression would still lead to a solid season for Volquez. The final spot in the rotation will go to one of a pair of guys who have trouble translating their talent into production in the majors. Micah Owings, the PTBNL in the Adam Dunn trade, and Homer Bailey both come with tons of hype but few good results in the show.

The Reds bullpen features three quality names with save experience. Francisco Cordero is the closer, supported by Arthur Rhodes and former Cincinnati closer David Weathers.

Houston Astros

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Michael Bourn CF
Kaz Matsui 2B
Miguel Tejada SS
Lance Berkman 1B
Carlos Lee LF
Hunter Pence RF
Ivan Rodriguez C
Geoff Blum 3B

Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Brandon Backe
Mike Hampton
Brian Moehler
Chris Sampson
Alberto Arias


Houston is returning six offensive starters from last year, and now adds Ivan Rodriguez. But Pudge isn't the offensive powerhouse he once was. Still, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, and Carlos Lee still are. The main question in the lineup may be why Lance Berkman, who once patrolled center field for the Astros, is now at first base while Carlos Lee, never an asset on defense, is still in the outfield.

The bench consists largely of aging retreads, including Darrin Erstad, David Newhan, and Jason Michaels. Aaron Boone would be on that list if it wasn't for a heart condition that will force him to sit out 2009. The infield is thin, with starting third baseman Geoff Blum currently listed as the primary backup at second and third.

Houston's ace is Team USA's ace, Roy Oswalt. Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez had decent seasons in 2008, but the rest of the rotation is questionable. Mike Hampton was decent when healthy, and Brian Moehler had a solid season for a back-of-the-rotation starter. But Brandon Backe has a career ERA over 5 and Russ Ortiz didn't pitch in the Majors in 2008.

Houston has traditionally produced quality closers and setup men from their organization. This year, they'll use imports to man the back end of their bullpen. Jose Valverde will close, aided by veterans Geoff Geary, LaTroy Hawkins (Oswalt's WBC teammate), and Doug Brocail.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Nyjer Morgan LF
Freddy Sanchez 2B
Nate McLouth CF
Ryan Doumit C
Brandon Moss/Erin Hinske RF
Adam LaRoche 1B
Andy LaRoche 3B
Jack Wilson SS

Rotation
Paul Maholm
Ian Snell
Zach Duke
Russ Ohlendorf
Jeff Karstens
Virgil Vasquez
Phil Dumatrait


Last year, Pittsburgh made a statement that they want to be good in the future, instead of being perpetually mediocre in the present. Nate McLouth may not repeat his success from last year, but he's still established himself as a Major Leaguer. In that way, he's followed in the footsteps of Freddy Sanchez. As a full time player, Ryan Doumit may be that man this year. Adam LaRoche is a steady hitter. While brother Andy's prospect status has lost some lustre, he's still a few years away from his prime.

Pittsburgh has some decent talent in their starting rotation, even with Tom Gorzelanny back down in the minors. As with most teams with poor offenses, you can't judge the starting pitchers by their win-loss records. Look for a big year from Ian Snell after he proudly represented Puerto Rico, the homeland of his stepfather and his wife.

Pittsburgh's bullpen is highlighted by returning closer Matt Capps. Capps will be supported by John Grabow, Tyler Yates, Chris Bootcheck, Evan Meek, and Donald Veal, a rule V pickup from the Cubs organization. Oh, and there's also Rinku and Dinesh.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

MLB Preview #4
American League East

New York Yankees

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui DH
Jorge Posada C
Xavier Nady RF
Robinson Cano 2B
Brett Gardner/Nick Swisher/Melky Cabrera CF

Rotation
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Joba Chamberlain
Phillip Hughes
Alfredo Aceves
Ian Kennedy
Dan Giese


Sure, the lineup takes a hit with the loss of Alex Rodriguez. But an offense that was one of the best in 2008 shouldn't have any trouble going into 2009, with or without A-Rod. Sure, Damon, Jeter, Matsui, and Posada are all a year older, but they're still very effective hitters. The open competition in center should only help the club, especially if Nick Swisher manages to fully bounce back from a down 2008. Swisher is a luxury the Yanks can afford to trade, but they may want to wait until after the start of the season so Swisher can bounce back and New York can sell high.

Thirty-three year old utility infielder Cody Ransom is expected to fill in a third base to start the season, with help from former Royals shortstop Angel Berroa. Jose Molina, meanwhile, returns as the backup catcher.

A common theme in these previews is that it takes two aces to have any success in the playoffs. With the addition of CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, the Yankees now have three - and possibly four if Joba Chamberlain can live up to his hype. Injuries will be a concern for Burnett, Wang, and the aging Pettitte. If any of the starters miss significant time, it will be up to guys like Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to live up to the expectations placed upon them.

Mariano Rivera is back as the Yankees closer, and even if Joba Chamberlain sticks in the rotation, Rivera will have a decent support staff. Damaso Marte may be the only recognizable setup man, but he's not the only capable reliever the Yanks carry. Brian Bruney posted a 1.83 ERA in 2008, and Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez each came in under 4.00.

Boston Red Sox

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
David Ortiz DH
Kevin Youkilis 1B
Mike Lowell 3B
JD Drew RF
Jason Bay LF
Jason Varitek C
Julio Lugo/Jed Lowrie SS

Rotation
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny
John Smoltz
Justin Masterson
David Pauley


It was addition by subtraction in 2008 for Boston, as they traded a disgruntled Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay and still made the playoffs. This year, they'll see if that formula can carry them through an entire season. Early indications show that it can. The Red Sox are strong (and virtually interchangeable) from lineup spots one through seven, but the last two places are question marks. Jason Varitek was resigned by Boston for lack of a better option, but he'll need to hit much better than he did last year to keep his starting job. At shortstop, Jed Lowrie has essentially won the position by default after Julio Lugo injured his knee.

Josh Bard is back for his second try as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. Bard was booed out of town last time, while his team captain remained surprisingly silent over Bard's knuckleball-handling troubles. If Bard can hit like he has over the past few years, he may just take the everyday job from that captain. In the outfield, Rocco Baldelli was added as a backup and spot starter. Mark Kotsay and Brad Wilkerson are also on the roster, but they may see more time at first base than in the outfield. That leaves the infield, where depth was already an issue before the loss of Lugo (and before Pedroia was pulled from the WBC). It appears that that utility spot is up for grabs between a handful of non-roster invitees, including journeyman Nick Green.

Tampa Bay Rays

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Akinori Iwamura 2B
Carl Crawford LF
BJ Upton CF
Carlos Pena 1B
Evan Longoria 3B
Pat Burrell DH
Dioner Navarro C
Gabe Gross RF
Jason Bartlett SS

Rotation
Jamie Shields
Scott Kazmir
Matt Garza
Andy Sonnanstine
David Price
Mitch Talbot
Jeff Niemman
Jason Hammel


Yes, Baseball Prospectus expects the Rays to finish in third place in the East in 2009. But that doesn't mean their 2008 success was a fluke. Yes, the team is due for some regression, but BP still predicts them to win a whopping 95 games and finish just one game behind the wild card-winning Red Sox. Part of the reason is that a majority of their core is still intact. Two revolving door players in right field, Eric Hinske and Rocco Baldelli, are gone, but Gabe Gross is back. In addition, Gross will be challenged by young outfielder Matt Joyce, who was practically stolen from the Tigers in exchange for Edwin Jackson. Speaking of steals, Tampa Bay also got a steal of a deal in picking up Pat Burrell on the cheap. This lineup may not have the name recognition of New York's, but Baseball Prospectus actually predicts the Rays to outscore the Yankees this year. I wouldn't be surprise if they gave Boston a run for their offensive money as well.

In addition to Matt Joyce, the Rays also have Gabe Kapler as an outfield option off the bench. Willy Aybar returns as the club's utility infielder, and Morgan Ensberg and Adam Kennedy will also battle for backup infield spots.

Last year, the Rays had the luxury of having too many capable starting pitchers. This year is no different. Even after trading away Edwin Jackson, Tampa Bay still has to decide whether they want to move David Price to the rotation or keep him in the bullpen. Price, Baseball America's number two overall prospect this year, was lights out in last year's ALCS, earning an extended save in the game that sent Tampa Bay to the World Series.

Of course, the nice thing about the Price decision is that Tampa Bay also has a glut of talent in the bullpen. Troy Percival is back as the club's closer, aided by Chad Bradford, Dan Wheeler, JP Howell, Grant Balfour, and Brian Shouse. Former Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen will also compete for a spot in the Rays pen.

Baltimore Orioles

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Brian Roberts2B
Melvin Mora 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Aubrey Huff 1B
Adam Jones CF
Luke Scott DH
Greg Zaun/Matt Wieters C
Cesar Izturis SS
Felix Pie LF

Rotation
Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
Adam Eaton
Danys Baez
Hayden Penn
David Pauley
Radhames Liz
Bradley Bergensen
Chris Waters
Dennis Sarfate
Brian Bass
Matt Albers


Baltimore's offense showed good improvement in 2008, and that improvement should continue in 2008. The lineup starts off with solid professional hitters in Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora. Next come three unheralded starsin Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, and Adam Jones, all of whom outperformed their 2008 expectations. Markakis became a legitimate star in 2008. Huff had always been a good hitter, but he was just phenomenal towards the end of last year. And who would have guessed that Seattle would regret trading a then-unpolished Adam Jones for Cy Young candidate Erik Bedard? The bottom of the Orioles lineup still has question marks, but one of those questions will be answered as soon as Matt Wieters makes his MLB debut. Baseball America considers Wieters the top prospect in all of baseball, and he's a great hitter regardless of position. He's enough to make this author regret joining an NL-only fantasy league this summer.

The Orioles have some recognizable and versatile veterans fighting for backup spots. Chris Gomez can play four positions (the four infield spots), Ryan Freel and Ty Wigginton five (2B, 3B, LF, and RF for both, CF for Freel, and 1B for Wigginton), and Jolbert Cabrera seven (everywhere except pitcher and catcher).

It's easy to say that Baltimore's starting pitching is its weak spot. But this example illustrates that perfectly: up for a spot in the rotation is Danys Baez, who hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2007, and who hasn't started since 2002.

If there's one good thing about Baltimore's pitching staff, it's that their bullpen seems to produce All Star closers year after year. This season's edition still has current closer George Sherrill and former closer Chris Ray. Also providing relief for the Orioles are veterans Jamie Walker and Mark Hendrickson.

Toronto Blue Jays

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Aaron Hill/Joe Inglett 2B
Adam Lind LF
Alex Rios RF
Vernon Wells CF
Scott Rolen 3B
Travis Snider DH
Lyle Overbay 1B
Rod Barajas C
John McDonald/Marco Scutaro SS

Rotation
Roy Halladay
Jesse Litsch
David Pursey
Casey Janssen
Scott Richmond
Matt Clement
Brett Cecil
Shaun Marcum
Dustin McGowan


I'm beginning with Toronto's starting pitching, because their rotation was arguably the best in the game in 2008 (a fact few people knew). Unfortunately, they lost AJ Burnett to free agency, and Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan begin the year injured. Marcum and McGowan were two big reasons for the rotation's success in 2008, and the Blue Jays will have trouble filling their spots. After all, they can only ride ace Roy Halladay so much, no matter how good he is. One of the contenders for a rotation spot is Matt Clement, a poor man's Mark Prior who went from dominating Cubs starter to disabled has-been in less than a year.

Closing for Toronto is one of Baltimore's former stoppers, BJ Ryan. Notable Blue Jays relievers include Jason Frasor, Jeremy Accardo, and swingman Brian Tallet. Matt Bush, the number one overall pick of the 2004 draft as a shortstop by the Padres, will try to resurrect his career and make the Blue Jays as a relief pitcher.

As hard as it is for Toronto fans to think "what if" if their 2008 rotation was still intact, it's even harder when you see the pieces added to their batting order. Sure, none of their middle infielders are much with the bat. But adding Travis Snider to a lineup where Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Scott Rolen play at least 150 games, and there's a force to be reckoned with. Of course, all three outfielders - Rios, Wells, and Adam Lind, have struggled to live up to unfair expectations. But even if they just ignore the critics and do what they're capable of doing, this lineup can win some ballgames.

Toronto is obviously deep when it comes to defensive middle infielders, as can be seen by the options in the starting lineup. They also have some choices on the corners, with Jose Bautista and Kevin Millar coming off the bench. In addition, both Michael Barrett and Raul Chavez are more than capable as backup catchers. The depth problem comes in the outfield, where Travis Snider may have to play on days when Millar or even Lind DH.

Sunday, March 08, 2009

MLB Preview #3
National League East

New York Mets

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Luis Castillo 2B
Jose Reyes SS
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Carlos Delgado 1B
Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis LF
Ryan Church RF
Brian Schneider C

Rotation
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Freddy Garcia
Tim Redding
Livan Hernandez
Jon Niese
Nelson Figueroa
Brandon Knight


The Mets lineup didn't change much from last year, but then again it really didn't need to. Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are stars, and the rest are good to great complimentary players (despite what locals think about Luis Castillo). Reyes and Castillo are about equal at getting on base, and if New York drops Reyes to second, it will be able to better take advantage of his power - especially compared to the punchless Castillo.

In addition to Murphy, Church, and Tatis likely sharing time in the outfield, the Mets have even more talented outfielders is Marlon Anderson and Jeremy Reed. On the infield, Alex Cora is a proven utility man and a capable emergency starter. Once again, Ramon Castro will relieve Schneider at catcher.

New York's starting rotation may be a bit short on household names, but it's not short on talent. Of course, top starters Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey have had their bumps and bruises, so that's something Mets fans will want to keep their eye on.

The much maligned New York bullpen should be helped by the move to Citi Field. Despite early reports that balls flew out of the new stadium, it is located just across the street from Shea and has bigger dimensions, so it should favor pitchers even moreso than the original Mets home. The Mets now have an embarrassment of riches in the bullpen after acquiring Francisco Rodriguez as their new closer and JJ Putz as K-Rod's top setup man. Putz had a tough 2008 due to injuries, but had he not been traded to the Mets he likely would have been an elite closer again this year. Rodriguez, Putz, Duaner Sanchez, and Pedro Feliciano should help the Mets avoid late game (and late season) collapses this year.

Philadelphia Phillies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Raul Ibanez LF
Jayson Werth RF
Pedro Feliz 3B
Carlos Ruiz C

Rotation
Cole Hamels
Brett Myers
Jamie Moyer
Joe Blanton
JA Happ
Chan Ho Park
Kyle Kendrick
Carlos Carrasco


Well, it's hard to find fault in a team that won the World Series last year. Losing Pat Burrell in favor of Raul Ibanez was more of a downgrade that most people realize. But with the rest of Philadelphia's lineup, that shouldn't be an issue.

Like all good teams, the Phillies relied on key backups taking over if and when a starter faltered. Unfortunately for Philadelphia's opponents, that backup corps is as strong as ever. Geoff Jenkins lost his starting job to Jayson Werth last year, and this year he'll be Werth's backup. Greg Dobbs will once again back up the corner infield spots, with Eric Bruntlett up the middle. Catcher was a weak spot for the Phillies in 2008 after Carlos Ruiz struggled at the plate. But in addition to Ruiz and Chris Coste, the Phillies also picked up Ronny Paulino from in-state rival Pittsburgh. But all three catchers are probably just keeping the seat warm until prospect Lou Marson is ready.

Philadelphia's fifth starter spot is still up for grabs. But you know you're in good shape when that's the only question your starting rotation has. Myers, Moyer, and Blanton aren't elite pitchers, but staff ace Cole Hamels certainly is.

The bad news is that Brad Lidge probably won't convert all of his save opportunities this year, like he did in 2008. The good news is that Lidge is back as one of the best closers in the game. The even better news is that Lidge also has a strong support staff, led by Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Chad Durbin, and Scott Eyre.

Atlanta Braves

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Yunel Escobar SS
Kelly Johnson 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Brian McCann C
Garret Anderson/Matt Diaz LF
Casey Kotchman 1B
Jeff Francoeur RF
Josh Anderson CF

Rotation
Derek Lowe
Javier Vazquez
Jair Jurrjens
Kenshin Kawakami
Jorge Campillo
Tom Glavine
Jo-Jo Reyes
Tommy Hanson
Charlie Morton
James Parr
Jeff Bennett


I'll be honest - I have no idea how this lineup will shake out. On top of not knowing who will bat where, there are also questions of who will actually be playing at any given time. Garret Anderson may not hold up for a full 162 games. Josh Anderson is only holding onto his spot until top prospect Jordan Schafer is ready for the bigs. Jeff Francouer had enough trouble holding his starting spot last year, and questions remain this year. And that's just the outfield.

Fortunately, the Braves do have some decent backups. Matt Diaz was last year's starter in left field, and he'll likely see decent playing time on both corners this year. Gregor Blanco filled in for Francouer last year, and could do it again this year. On the infield, Martin Prado put up good offensive numbers last year, and warrants playing time this year when he gets a chance. Of course, he'll also have to compete with proven infielder Omar Infante for the utility role.

As always, the Braves have put together a solid rotation. Tim Hudson is out with an arm injury, but in his stead the Braves have acquired two very good starters - Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez. Jair Jurrjens was a darkhorse rookie of the year candidate last year, and this year he returns as a capable number three starter. The Braves also have some decent pieces to fill the last few rotation spots, including Jo-Jo Reyes, Ken Kawakami, and a swan song from Tom Glavine. The Braves may be headed for another third place finish in their division, but don't fault the rotation for them not finishing any higher.

The Atlanta bullpen may seem like a group of castoffs, but there is some decent talent there. Former Pirates closer Mike Gonzalez now assumes that role with the Braves. He'll be aided by Rafael Soriano, Manny Acosta, Boone Logan, and Buddy Carlyle.

Washington Nationals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Christian Guzman SS
Elijah Dukes RF
Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Adam Dunn 1B
Lastings Milledge CF
Josh Willingham LF
Jesus Flores C
Anderson Hernandez 2B

Rotation
John Lannan
Scott Olsen
Daniel Cabrera
Shawn Hill
Jordan Zimmermann
Collin Balester
Shairon Martis
Jason Bergmann
Matt Chico
Garrett Mock
Tyler Clippard


The Nationals are an organization looking for respect. While their record in 2009 might not win them any respect, they have pieced together a respectable lineup and a respectable bench. New to the DC are are Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham, two players who won't hit for a high average, but who will get on base and hit for power. They, along with previous acquisitions Christian Guzman, Elijah Dukes, and Lastings Milledge, will help compliment Washington's star-in-training Ryan Zimmerman. And while the previously light-hitting Guzman probably won't match the batting numbers he reached in 2008, one of those other starters just might.

Like the Nationals lineup, the bench is full of recognizable names. While they may be castoffs from other organizations, they're also proven Major Leaguers, and many of them former starters. Nick Johnson will try to stay healthy and fight for playing time. Ronnie Belliard and Kory Casto will back up the infield, and former Nationals starters Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena will do the same in the outfield. Kearns, Pena, and Dunn - reunited from their time in Cincinnati - will give this team some pop.

Over the past few years, the Nationals have had no trouble acquiring players with character issues, alleged or otherwise. This year is no different as they add starter Scott Olsen from the Marlins. If players can Olsen and Elijah Dukes can contain their emotions, they will make the Nationals a better team. If instead they feed off of each other's negativity, then I pit manager Manny Acta. But outside of Scott Olsen and John Lannan, Washington is full of question marks in the starting rotation, none bigger than enigma Dnaiel Cabrera, who on any given night could strike out 15 and walk just as many.

The Nationals bullpen is highlighted by Team Canada member Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan has a thin bullpen behind him, composed primarily of fringe starters like Garrett Mock and Tyler Clippard.

Florida Marlins

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Hanley Ramirez SS
Jeremy Hermida RF/LF
Jorge Cantu 3B
Dan Uggla 2B
Gaby Sanchez 1B
Cody Ross LF/RF
John Baker C
Cameron Maybin CF

Rotation
Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Anibal Sanchez
Andrew Miller
Dan Meyer
Burke Badenhop
Ryan Tucker
Rick VandenHurk


Like the Braves, and even moreso, I'm not sure how the Marlins lineup will look in 2009. If Cameron Maybin can stick in the leadoff spot, Florida will benefit from moving Hanley Ramirez to the three hole. But until then, the Fish will benefit from hitting Ramirez first, effectively giving their best player as many at bats as possible. Like Washington's, Florida's lineup delivers some pop with Ramirez, Cantu, and Uggla, but it also has many question marks. Still, the Marlins have the ability to make games exciting.

Florida does have some capable backups, primarily on the infield corners. Both Wes Helms and former Angels super-prospect Dallas McPherson can play both third and first base. Alfredo Amezaga, meanwhile, can play anywhere on the diamond.

The Marlins rotation has some young talent that may still be a year or two away from being good. Ricky Nolasco wins the top rotation spot by default, more or less. Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller will be good, but may not be Major League good yet. Anibal Sanchez has an MLB no hitter under his belt, but has been relatively silent outside of that one game. Dan Meyer was once thought to be one of the next big Oakland pitching prospects; now he's just fighting for the fifth starter spot on a bad team.

Matt Lindstrom has been named Florida's closer after converting five of six opportunities in 2008. He'll be supported by Leo Nunez, Logan Kensing, and Taylor Tankersly, as well as Scott Proctor. Proctor was an interesting acquisition, as talented veteran middle relievers are often not a priority on a team like this.