Well, it hasn't exactly been weekly this season, but let's hope it is from here on out. To recap, we take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click Here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Choo
Martinez
Cabrera
Hafner
Garko
Sizemore
Francisco
Peralta
Carroll
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.297
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.938 runs per game, which isn't too bad in its own right. The ideal lineup is an improvement of 0.360 runs per game, or 58 runs over the course of a season. That may not seem like much, but using the old sabermetric standby that 10 runs = 1 win, that's another 5-6 victories for the Tribe. Of course, they'd still be 7 games back in the division.
Defensive Plausibility
Well, it's pretty much the same nine guys Cleveland trots out for every other game, so there are no problems here.
Fan Believability
It's hard to argue batting Hafner, Garko, Francisco, Peralta, and Carroll where they are. Choo's pretty realistic too, since he gets on base and runs relatively well (for this team). But even in the midsts of a down season, fans would riot at Grady Sizemore hitting sixth. In addition, no coach on the hot seat would bat Victor Martinez second but Asdrubal Cabrera third.
My Take
It's been a while since I've done a lineup analysis. So I'm happy how this turned out, because it gives me another chance to demonstrate how the lineup tool "envisions" each spot in the batting order. As with a traditional lineup, the best on-base guy bats leadoff and the biggest masher hits cleanup. Shin-Soo Choo leads the team in on base percentage, while Travis Hafner leads the team in slugging.
The number two hitter is supposed to be your best all-around hitter - good in both OBP and SLG, but one isn't drastically higher than the other. Check that one off with Victor Martinez. The number five guy is your second-best all-around hitter. To Nino's delight, I'm sure, that's Ryan Garko.
What's interesting is the number three spot. Contrary to popular thought, this model normally puts a bad hitter there, just for lack of a better spot, and with the intent to space out the out-makers. But Asdrubal Cabrera is fifth on the team in OPS, so I'm not sure why he was placed there.
Your number nine guy isn't necessarily a good hitter, but it should be someone who can get on base. That's Jamey Carroll in a nutshell. The rest of the lineup, spots six through eight, are whoever's left in descending order of ability.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
This week I have two thoughts, and they're not so random because they still pertain to this lineup analysis.
It's a small sample of only 20 at bats, but Josh Barfield is actually third on the team in OPS this year. I'll leave a lineup analysis that includes him as an exercise for the reader.
Also, coming into Thursday's game against the Blue Jays, Chris Gimenez had a higher OPS than Jhonny Peralta on the year, meaning I would have used Gimenez instead of Peralta in this week's analysis. Interestingly, both Barfield and Gimenez could replace Peralta at third to keep the lineup defensively plausible.
As it stands, Peralta, Gimenez, and Kelly Shoppach are all in a very close race for the ninth-best OPS on the team. In a year like this, I'm actually curious to see how Shoppach would fare at the hot corner.
Showing posts with label Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis. Show all posts
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Back again for its second season, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click Here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Cabrera
Martinez
Garko
Hafner
Choo
Sizemore
Shoppach
Francisco
Peralta
Theoretical Runs Per Game
A whopping 6.524.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 5.368 runs per game, which is impressive in its own right. But the ideal lineup is an improvement of 1.156 runs per game, or 187 runs over the course of a season. That's an additional 18-19 runs.
Defensive Plausibility
This team isn't too bad defensively, except it lacks a third baseman. The best candidate appears to be Travis Hafner, who played 29 minor league games at the hot corner.
Fan Believability
Defensively, there's the issue with third base. Offensively, the lineup is very believable outside of Grady Sizemore getting bumped down to sixth. You might not readily think of Asdrubal Cabrera as a leadoff hitter and Jhonny Peralta as a ninth-place hitter, but of late the former has been surging and the latter has been struggling.
My Take
This again is a good example of how the lineup tool is supposed to work. The best overall hitter - in this case, Victor Martinez - is batting second, and the next best overall hitter (Shin-Soo Choo) is fifth. The top OBP guy is hitting leadoff. Believe it or not, that's Asdrubal Cabrera, who was recently promoted to the number two spot in the lineup in real life.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Don't judge Cliff Lee by his win total this season. He has more than a few things working against him. Not only is he due for some regression, but he also has people gunning for him as the reigning Cy Young Winner. Plus, he'll be facing other teams' aces this year, whereas last year he was facing other teams' fifth starters. That means last year's 5-2 wins are this year's 2-1 losses. Oh, and he got "lucky" by facing an inordinate number of bad teams last year.
If anyone for the Indians can repeat Cliff Lee's performance this year, it's Aaron Laffey. Not only is Laffey off to a hot start, but he's also "pulling a Cliff Lee" by facing fourth and fifth starters, and so far facing poorer teams. (Two of his three starts this year have been against the Royals.)
This Week's Results
Click Here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Cabrera
Martinez
Garko
Hafner
Choo
Sizemore
Shoppach
Francisco
Peralta
Theoretical Runs Per Game
A whopping 6.524.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 5.368 runs per game, which is impressive in its own right. But the ideal lineup is an improvement of 1.156 runs per game, or 187 runs over the course of a season. That's an additional 18-19 runs.
Defensive Plausibility
This team isn't too bad defensively, except it lacks a third baseman. The best candidate appears to be Travis Hafner, who played 29 minor league games at the hot corner.
Fan Believability
Defensively, there's the issue with third base. Offensively, the lineup is very believable outside of Grady Sizemore getting bumped down to sixth. You might not readily think of Asdrubal Cabrera as a leadoff hitter and Jhonny Peralta as a ninth-place hitter, but of late the former has been surging and the latter has been struggling.
My Take
This again is a good example of how the lineup tool is supposed to work. The best overall hitter - in this case, Victor Martinez - is batting second, and the next best overall hitter (Shin-Soo Choo) is fifth. The top OBP guy is hitting leadoff. Believe it or not, that's Asdrubal Cabrera, who was recently promoted to the number two spot in the lineup in real life.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Don't judge Cliff Lee by his win total this season. He has more than a few things working against him. Not only is he due for some regression, but he also has people gunning for him as the reigning Cy Young Winner. Plus, he'll be facing other teams' aces this year, whereas last year he was facing other teams' fifth starters. That means last year's 5-2 wins are this year's 2-1 losses. Oh, and he got "lucky" by facing an inordinate number of bad teams last year.
If anyone for the Indians can repeat Cliff Lee's performance this year, it's Aaron Laffey. Not only is Laffey off to a hot start, but he's also "pulling a Cliff Lee" by facing fourth and fifth starters, and so far facing poorer teams. (Two of his three starts this year have been against the Royals.)
Labels:
Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click Here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Choo
Martinez
Shoppach
Sizemore
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Victor Martinez replaces Ryan Garko. Shin-Soo Choo has passed Grady Sizemore in both on base and slugging percentage and moves into the second spot in the lineup (normally reserved for the best overall hitter in this formula).
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.358, down 0.009 from last week. That's basically a push, but continues a slight downward trend over the past few weeks.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.851 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.507 runs per game, which in turn leads to 82 runs over the course of the season, or 8.2 more wins. That's theoretically enough to be tied with the Twins right now, looking up at Chicago in the division and Boston in the wild card.
Defensive Plausibility
Once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner, and Martinez comes in to play first.
Fan Believability
Nope, none at all.
My Take
The lineup makes good sense in terms of Dave Pinto's formula. Fasano and Jamey Carroll have a good OBP but little else. Choo is the best overall hitter right now, followed by Sizemore. That's what the two and five spots are for. Kelly Shoppach is a masher who doesn't hit for high average, and therefore is hitting leadoff. Six and seven are you best remaining hitters, Jhonny Peralta and Ben Francisco. Three and eight are your weakest hitters (to space out your outs), Martinez and David Dellucci. Of course, Martinez' numbers are obviously tainted by his early-season performance.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
College football has started, and I'm starting to put most of my blogging time and attention into that. Let me know if you'd like me to continue doing the Indians lineup analysis for the rest of the season.
This Week's Results
Click Here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Choo
Martinez
Shoppach
Sizemore
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Victor Martinez replaces Ryan Garko. Shin-Soo Choo has passed Grady Sizemore in both on base and slugging percentage and moves into the second spot in the lineup (normally reserved for the best overall hitter in this formula).
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.358, down 0.009 from last week. That's basically a push, but continues a slight downward trend over the past few weeks.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.851 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.507 runs per game, which in turn leads to 82 runs over the course of the season, or 8.2 more wins. That's theoretically enough to be tied with the Twins right now, looking up at Chicago in the division and Boston in the wild card.
Defensive Plausibility
Once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner, and Martinez comes in to play first.
Fan Believability
Nope, none at all.
My Take
The lineup makes good sense in terms of Dave Pinto's formula. Fasano and Jamey Carroll have a good OBP but little else. Choo is the best overall hitter right now, followed by Sizemore. That's what the two and five spots are for. Kelly Shoppach is a masher who doesn't hit for high average, and therefore is hitting leadoff. Six and seven are you best remaining hitters, Jhonny Peralta and Ben Francisco. Three and eight are your weakest hitters (to space out your outs), Martinez and David Dellucci. Of course, Martinez' numbers are obviously tainted by his early-season performance.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
College football has started, and I'm starting to put most of my blogging time and attention into that. Let me know if you'd like me to continue doing the Indians lineup analysis for the rest of the season.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Garko
Shoppach
Choo
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Jamey Carroll replaces Andy Gonzalez, and there is some slight shuffling in the middle.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.367, down 0.012 from last week. That's basically a push.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.858 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.509 runs per game, which in turn leads to 82 runs over the course of the season, or 8.4 more wins. It's enough to make a push for the division, but again this is all theoretical.
Defensive Plausibility
Once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner, and Jamey Carroll comes in to play second.
Fan Believability
Nope, none at all.
My Take
Shoppach moves up to cleanup, meaning he's hitting for power again. Note that even though Victor Martinez has returned, he still didn't crack this lineup. It looks like he's healthy again, though, so he should be back soon.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Some fans may see Cleveland's recent performance as too little, too late. That may be the case, but I also see it as a sign that this team will one again be successful in 2009.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Garko
Shoppach
Choo
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Jamey Carroll replaces Andy Gonzalez, and there is some slight shuffling in the middle.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.367, down 0.012 from last week. That's basically a push.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.858 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.509 runs per game, which in turn leads to 82 runs over the course of the season, or 8.4 more wins. It's enough to make a push for the division, but again this is all theoretical.
Defensive Plausibility
Once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner, and Jamey Carroll comes in to play second.
Fan Believability
Nope, none at all.
My Take
Shoppach moves up to cleanup, meaning he's hitting for power again. Note that even though Victor Martinez has returned, he still didn't crack this lineup. It looks like he's healthy again, though, so he should be back soon.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Some fans may see Cleveland's recent performance as too little, too late. That may be the case, but I also see it as a sign that this team will one again be successful in 2009.
Labels:
Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Francisco
Shoppach
Choo
Peralta
Dellucci
Garko
Gonzalez
Changes From Last Week
The players remain the same, but outside of Grady Sizemore, almost no one is in the same spot in the lineup.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.355, down 0.183 from last week. Yet the team has still been winning.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.836 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.519 runs per game, which in turn leads to 84 runs over the course of the season, or 84 more wins. Theoretically, they'd move into third place, but still wouldn't be close to the division leaders.
Defensive Plausibility
Once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner.
Fan Believability
As before, Fasano playing third and batting leadoff is a good way to get a manager fired.
My Take
The first thing that jumped out at me is that Jhonny Peralta is cooling off again, and this lineup reflects it. Even if you ignore Fasano in the leadoff spot, though, this isn't a bad nine.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
It's hard to say whether or not baseball should be in the Olympics. I say this even as a person who loves baseball. In many ways, the Olympics should be the pinnacle of sports competition, as it is for swimming and track. Countries like Cuba treat Olympic baseball as that pinnacle, as Fidel Castro wants to prove to the world that his country is the best at his favorite sport. But for countries like the USA, the pinnacle of baseball is the World Series, and it shows too, as teams debate even sending their AA talent to the Olympics. So should baseball come back to the Olympics in 2016? That remains to be seen.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Francisco
Shoppach
Choo
Peralta
Dellucci
Garko
Gonzalez
Changes From Last Week
The players remain the same, but outside of Grady Sizemore, almost no one is in the same spot in the lineup.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.355, down 0.183 from last week. Yet the team has still been winning.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.836 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.519 runs per game, which in turn leads to 84 runs over the course of the season, or 84 more wins. Theoretically, they'd move into third place, but still wouldn't be close to the division leaders.
Defensive Plausibility
Once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner.
Fan Believability
As before, Fasano playing third and batting leadoff is a good way to get a manager fired.
My Take
The first thing that jumped out at me is that Jhonny Peralta is cooling off again, and this lineup reflects it. Even if you ignore Fasano in the leadoff spot, though, this isn't a bad nine.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
It's hard to say whether or not baseball should be in the Olympics. I say this even as a person who loves baseball. In many ways, the Olympics should be the pinnacle of sports competition, as it is for swimming and track. Countries like Cuba treat Olympic baseball as that pinnacle, as Fidel Castro wants to prove to the world that his country is the best at his favorite sport. But for countries like the USA, the pinnacle of baseball is the World Series, and it shows too, as teams debate even sending their AA talent to the Olympics. So should baseball come back to the Olympics in 2016? That remains to be seen.
Labels:
Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Gonzalez
Sizemore
Choo
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Shoppach
Garko
Fasano
Changes From Last Week
Andy Gonzalez has become eligible (passing my arbitrary threshold of 10 plate appearances), and he replaces Jamey Carroll. Gonzalez also replaces Fasano in the leadoff spot. Meanwhile, Dellucci and Shoppach flip-flop, which makes sense as the former has been hot and the latter has cooled off.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.538, up 0.425 from last week. Gonzalez' performance is a shot in the arm, and overall the team has been hitting a little better as of late.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.697 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.841 runs per game, which in turn leads to 136 runs over the course of the season, or 13-14 more wins. In theory, that's enough to put the team into a tie for first place in the division. Of course, it also relies on the small sample sizes of Andy Gonzalez and Sal Fasano.
Defensive Plausibility
Gonzalez moves in to play second, where he does have experience, and once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner.
Fan Believability
The batting order is a believable one, especially with Gonzalez replacing Fasano at the top of the order. Fans may wonder why Shoppach is hitting so low in this order, but he has cooled off sense moving into the #3 spot in Eric Wedge's lineup. The defense still leaves a little to be desired.
My Take
Not much has changed from last week. Sizemore and Peralta work well where they are, and Gonzalez is a more realistic leadoff option.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
The Indians representatives on Team USA have struggled in this Olympics. Matt LaPorta is only 1-for-14 with seven strikeouts, but that one hit was a three-run homer. Closer Jeff Stevens has been charged with both American losses, giving up four runs (but only one earned) in 1 2/3 innings of work. But in his defense, the second loss came as a result of the new Olympic extra inning rules.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Indians are playing well. Nick Weglarz has been the star of Team Canada, going 7-for-15 with 2 HR so far. Reliever Tim Burton has made three appearances and has two scoreless innings to his credit.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Gonzalez
Sizemore
Choo
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Shoppach
Garko
Fasano
Changes From Last Week
Andy Gonzalez has become eligible (passing my arbitrary threshold of 10 plate appearances), and he replaces Jamey Carroll. Gonzalez also replaces Fasano in the leadoff spot. Meanwhile, Dellucci and Shoppach flip-flop, which makes sense as the former has been hot and the latter has cooled off.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.538, up 0.425 from last week. Gonzalez' performance is a shot in the arm, and overall the team has been hitting a little better as of late.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.697 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.841 runs per game, which in turn leads to 136 runs over the course of the season, or 13-14 more wins. In theory, that's enough to put the team into a tie for first place in the division. Of course, it also relies on the small sample sizes of Andy Gonzalez and Sal Fasano.
Defensive Plausibility
Gonzalez moves in to play second, where he does have experience, and once again Sal Fasano mans the hot corner.
Fan Believability
The batting order is a believable one, especially with Gonzalez replacing Fasano at the top of the order. Fans may wonder why Shoppach is hitting so low in this order, but he has cooled off sense moving into the #3 spot in Eric Wedge's lineup. The defense still leaves a little to be desired.
My Take
Not much has changed from last week. Sizemore and Peralta work well where they are, and Gonzalez is a more realistic leadoff option.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
The Indians representatives on Team USA have struggled in this Olympics. Matt LaPorta is only 1-for-14 with seven strikeouts, but that one hit was a three-run homer. Closer Jeff Stevens has been charged with both American losses, giving up four runs (but only one earned) in 1 2/3 innings of work. But in his defense, the second loss came as a result of the new Olympic extra inning rules.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Indians are playing well. Nick Weglarz has been the star of Team Canada, going 7-for-15 with 2 HR so far. Reliever Tim Burton has made three appearances and has two scoreless innings to his credit.
Labels:
Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Choo
Shoppach
Francisco
Peralta
Dellucci
Garko
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
For the first time in this series, the players and order remains exactly the same.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.113, down 0.198 from last week. Since the players are the same from last week, their overall performance has decreased slightly.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.661 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.452 runs per game, which in turn leads to 73 runs over the course of the season, or 7 more wins. Coincidentally, the team is exactly seven games below their pythagorean win-loss record right now.
Defensive Plausibility
In this theoretical world, Sal Fasano probably has enough third base experience to qualify for that position on your fantasy team.
Fan Believability
Fasano seemed to handle first base well, so why not third?
My Take
This is the same lineup as last week, so I'll say the same thing. I like Sizemore in the two hole, but I'd probably move Peralta to cleanup and bat Shoppach fifth.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
It's a case of small sample size, but Michael Aubrey's season OPS with the Indians is currently higher than Ryan Garko's - and Aubrey was only hitting .181 with the Tribe.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Choo
Shoppach
Francisco
Peralta
Dellucci
Garko
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
For the first time in this series, the players and order remains exactly the same.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.113, down 0.198 from last week. Since the players are the same from last week, their overall performance has decreased slightly.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.661 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.452 runs per game, which in turn leads to 73 runs over the course of the season, or 7 more wins. Coincidentally, the team is exactly seven games below their pythagorean win-loss record right now.
Defensive Plausibility
In this theoretical world, Sal Fasano probably has enough third base experience to qualify for that position on your fantasy team.
Fan Believability
Fasano seemed to handle first base well, so why not third?
My Take
This is the same lineup as last week, so I'll say the same thing. I like Sizemore in the two hole, but I'd probably move Peralta to cleanup and bat Shoppach fifth.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
It's a case of small sample size, but Michael Aubrey's season OPS with the Indians is currently higher than Ryan Garko's - and Aubrey was only hitting .181 with the Tribe.
Sunday, August 03, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Choo
Shoppach
Francisco
Peralta
Dellucci
Garko
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
The players remain the same, but other than Grady Sizemore hitting second, the order is entirely different.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.311, up 4.964, up 0.347 runs from last week. This lineup has the same players as last week's, which essentially means they had a good week at the plate.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.670 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.641 runs per game, which in turn leads to 104 runs over the course of the season, or 10 more wins. Of course, this team isn't playing anywhere near their pythagorean expectations, so who knows how well they'd do.
Defensive Plausibility
As with last week, Sal Fasano would have to be your everyday third baseman.
Fan Believability
I'm sure Nino over at Bleacher Report would get a laugh out of Mighty Sal Fasano leading off and playing third, but I don't think anyone else would buy this lineup.
My Take
I'm actually surprised how this lineup turned out. The second spot is your best overall hitter, and Sizemore remains there. But cleanup is your big slugger and the five spot is your second best overall hitter. So I was expecting to see Jhonny Peralta fourth and Kelly Shoppach (now second on the team in OPS) fifth.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
If you look at offense alone, it's hard to justify moving Jhonny Peralta to third base. Peralta is currently first among AL shortstops in OPS. But if Peralta was a third baseman, his OPS would be league-average at best at that position. Presumably, it would be much easier to keep Peralta at short and go get a league-average third baseman than move Peralta to third and go get an above-average shortstop.
A similar thing happens when you consider Victor Martinez. Martinez' career 0.833 OPS would be second in the AL this year among catchers. But among AL first basemen, he'd be about average. Meanwhile, Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko's career OPSs are bad for first basemen but above-average for catchers. Since their OPSs are similar (assuming Shoppach regresses and Garko progresses next season), they are virtually interchangeable in the lineup. Assuming Martinez and Garko's first base defense is also interchangeable, that leaves the Tribe with two options: keep Martinez at catcher and get a league-average first baseman to improve their offense, or move Martinez to first and make Shoppach the everyday catcher to improve team defense.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Choo
Shoppach
Francisco
Peralta
Dellucci
Garko
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
The players remain the same, but other than Grady Sizemore hitting second, the order is entirely different.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.311, up 4.964, up 0.347 runs from last week. This lineup has the same players as last week's, which essentially means they had a good week at the plate.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.670 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.641 runs per game, which in turn leads to 104 runs over the course of the season, or 10 more wins. Of course, this team isn't playing anywhere near their pythagorean expectations, so who knows how well they'd do.
Defensive Plausibility
As with last week, Sal Fasano would have to be your everyday third baseman.
Fan Believability
I'm sure Nino over at Bleacher Report would get a laugh out of Mighty Sal Fasano leading off and playing third, but I don't think anyone else would buy this lineup.
My Take
I'm actually surprised how this lineup turned out. The second spot is your best overall hitter, and Sizemore remains there. But cleanup is your big slugger and the five spot is your second best overall hitter. So I was expecting to see Jhonny Peralta fourth and Kelly Shoppach (now second on the team in OPS) fifth.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
If you look at offense alone, it's hard to justify moving Jhonny Peralta to third base. Peralta is currently first among AL shortstops in OPS. But if Peralta was a third baseman, his OPS would be league-average at best at that position. Presumably, it would be much easier to keep Peralta at short and go get a league-average third baseman than move Peralta to third and go get an above-average shortstop.
A similar thing happens when you consider Victor Martinez. Martinez' career 0.833 OPS would be second in the AL this year among catchers. But among AL first basemen, he'd be about average. Meanwhile, Kelly Shoppach and Ryan Garko's career OPSs are bad for first basemen but above-average for catchers. Since their OPSs are similar (assuming Shoppach regresses and Garko progresses next season), they are virtually interchangeable in the lineup. Assuming Martinez and Garko's first base defense is also interchangeable, that leaves the Tribe with two options: keep Martinez at catcher and get a league-average first baseman to improve their offense, or move Martinez to first and make Shoppach the everyday catcher to improve team defense.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Carroll
Sizemore
Garko
Peralta
Choo
Shoppach
Francisco
Dellucci
Fasano
Changes From Last Week
Casey Blake is replaced by Ryan Garko, and quite a bit of shuffling ensues.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
4.964, down 0.407 runs from last week. At the time he left, Blake was second on the team (to Grady Sizemore) with an 0.830 OPS.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.583 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.381 runs per game, which in turn leads to 62 over the course of the season, or 6 more wins. That's not enough for this team to make noise, but in most year it's the difference between the playoffs and third place.
Defensive Plausibility
Well, Sal Fasano did log an inning at third base for the Royals back in 1998. Assuming you'd rather replace Ryan Garko (the low man in OPS among this starting nine) with Andy Marte, the theoretical runs per game drops to 4.852.
Fan Believability
Offensively, it makes a lot of sense. Jhonny Peralta has been batting cleanup, with Shin-Soo Choo, Kelly Shoppach, and Ben Francisco around him. Jamey Carroll has been getting on base, so fans may buy moving Sizemore to second to drive in more runs. But I think fans would dislike Fasano at third more than they disliked Blake at shortstop, and only slightly less than a struggling Garko hitting third.
My Take
I'm a big fan of this lineup. I probably would put Marte in for Garko, a move that bumps Francisco up to third and Dellucci up to seventh. But you have Sizemore, Peralta, and just about everyone else where they need to be.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
It turns out that Jhonny Peralta spells his name correctly after all. According to Peralta's Wikipedia article (HT: The Dugout), Hispanics often use "jh" to represent the English "j" sound. Had he spelled it "Johnny," his name would have been pronounced "Hohnny."
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Carroll
Sizemore
Garko
Peralta
Choo
Shoppach
Francisco
Dellucci
Fasano
Changes From Last Week
Casey Blake is replaced by Ryan Garko, and quite a bit of shuffling ensues.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
4.964, down 0.407 runs from last week. At the time he left, Blake was second on the team (to Grady Sizemore) with an 0.830 OPS.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.583 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.381 runs per game, which in turn leads to 62 over the course of the season, or 6 more wins. That's not enough for this team to make noise, but in most year it's the difference between the playoffs and third place.
Defensive Plausibility
Well, Sal Fasano did log an inning at third base for the Royals back in 1998. Assuming you'd rather replace Ryan Garko (the low man in OPS among this starting nine) with Andy Marte, the theoretical runs per game drops to 4.852.
Fan Believability
Offensively, it makes a lot of sense. Jhonny Peralta has been batting cleanup, with Shin-Soo Choo, Kelly Shoppach, and Ben Francisco around him. Jamey Carroll has been getting on base, so fans may buy moving Sizemore to second to drive in more runs. But I think fans would dislike Fasano at third more than they disliked Blake at shortstop, and only slightly less than a struggling Garko hitting third.
My Take
I'm a big fan of this lineup. I probably would put Marte in for Garko, a move that bumps Francisco up to third and Dellucci up to seventh. But you have Sizemore, Peralta, and just about everyone else where they need to be.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
It turns out that Jhonny Peralta spells his name correctly after all. According to Peralta's Wikipedia article (HT: The Dugout), Hispanics often use "jh" to represent the English "j" sound. Had he spelled it "Johnny," his name would have been pronounced "Hohnny."
Monday, July 21, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Choo
Francisco
Blake
Peralta
Shoppach
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Grady Sizemore and Ben Francisco flip-flop; the rest remain the same.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.371, down 0.253 runs per game from last week. Sal Fasano's regression is kicking in already.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.567 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.804 runs per game, which in turn leads to 130 over the course of the season, or 13 more wins.
Defensive Plausibility
Fasano and Kelly Shoppach can alternate between first base and catcher, with everyone else assuming normal responsibilities. Or, Fasano or Shoppach can DH, with one of the outfielders playing first.
Fan Believability
Again, batting Sal Fasano leadoff is akin to asking to be fired. Otherwise, this lineup is balanced enough (for better or for worse) that it otherwise works.
My Take
I also wouldn't bat Fasano leadoff. But I do like Sizemore second and Blake fifth as the team's top two all-around hitters. I may bat Jhonny Peralta at leadoff over Ben Francisco, although Francisco has improved his isolated slugging as of late.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Look at that, I'm famous.
This Week's Results
Click here
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Fasano
Sizemore
Choo
Francisco
Blake
Peralta
Shoppach
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Grady Sizemore and Ben Francisco flip-flop; the rest remain the same.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.371, down 0.253 runs per game from last week. Sal Fasano's regression is kicking in already.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.567 runs per game. That's an improvement of 0.804 runs per game, which in turn leads to 130 over the course of the season, or 13 more wins.
Defensive Plausibility
Fasano and Kelly Shoppach can alternate between first base and catcher, with everyone else assuming normal responsibilities. Or, Fasano or Shoppach can DH, with one of the outfielders playing first.
Fan Believability
Again, batting Sal Fasano leadoff is akin to asking to be fired. Otherwise, this lineup is balanced enough (for better or for worse) that it otherwise works.
My Take
I also wouldn't bat Fasano leadoff. But I do like Sizemore second and Blake fifth as the team's top two all-around hitters. I may bat Jhonny Peralta at leadoff over Ben Francisco, although Francisco has improved his isolated slugging as of late.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Look at that, I'm famous.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup. I originally set the threshold very low - 10 plate appearances. Sal Fasano passed that threshold the other day, but just barely. So for the sake of argument, I've included a lineup with Fasano and one without.
This Week's Results
With Fasano
Without Fasano
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Changes From Last Week
Too many to count.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
With Fasano: 5.624, up 0.558 runs per game from last week.
Without Fasano: 5.105, up 0.069 runs per game from last week. This lineup features the same players from last week, meaning that their net individual numbers have increased since then.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.532 runs per game. With Fasano, they gain 1.092 runs per game, which is 177 runs or 17-18 wins over the course of the season. However, Fasano's small sample size is a factor here. Without Fasano, the team gains 0.573 runs per game. That translates to 92.8 runs over the course of the season, or just over 9 more wins.
Defensive Plausibility
Fasano and Kelly Shoppach can alternate between first base and catcher, with everyone else assuming normal responsibilities. Or, Fasano or Shoppach can DH, with one of the outfielders playing first.
Without Fasano, the lineup is the one the "real" Indians send out against righties, so there are no issues.
Fan Believability
Sal Fasano has 20 speed (at best), so batting him leadoff is akin to volunteering to be fired. And while batting Grady Sizemore cleanup may be statistically optimal, I don't see why a manager would do that instead of batting him fourth. The rest of the lineup falls into place rather well, though.
The way Casey Blake has been hitting as of late, he probably could bat leadoff for a poor team without any better options. However, the Indians have several better options. After Blake and Sizemore, the rest of the lineup is very similar to what the Indians have been using as of late.
My Take
I agree that the Fasano lineup is very far-fetched. The one without him isn't too bad, though. I'm not saying I'd bat Casey Blake in the leadoff spot if my job was on the line, but I'd at least consider it.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Congratulations to Cliff Lee - from AAA to All Star Starter.
This Week's Results
With Fasano
Without Fasano
This Week's Ideal Lineup
| With | Without |
| Fasano | Blake |
| Francisco | Sizemore |
| Choo | Choo |
| Sizemore | Peralta |
| Blake | Francisco |
| Peralta | Shoppach |
| Shoppach | Dellucci |
| Dellucci | Garko |
| Carroll | Carroll |
Changes From Last Week
Too many to count.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
With Fasano: 5.624, up 0.558 runs per game from last week.
Without Fasano: 5.105, up 0.069 runs per game from last week. This lineup features the same players from last week, meaning that their net individual numbers have increased since then.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.532 runs per game. With Fasano, they gain 1.092 runs per game, which is 177 runs or 17-18 wins over the course of the season. However, Fasano's small sample size is a factor here. Without Fasano, the team gains 0.573 runs per game. That translates to 92.8 runs over the course of the season, or just over 9 more wins.
Defensive Plausibility
Fasano and Kelly Shoppach can alternate between first base and catcher, with everyone else assuming normal responsibilities. Or, Fasano or Shoppach can DH, with one of the outfielders playing first.
Without Fasano, the lineup is the one the "real" Indians send out against righties, so there are no issues.
Fan Believability
Sal Fasano has 20 speed (at best), so batting him leadoff is akin to volunteering to be fired. And while batting Grady Sizemore cleanup may be statistically optimal, I don't see why a manager would do that instead of batting him fourth. The rest of the lineup falls into place rather well, though.
The way Casey Blake has been hitting as of late, he probably could bat leadoff for a poor team without any better options. However, the Indians have several better options. After Blake and Sizemore, the rest of the lineup is very similar to what the Indians have been using as of late.
My Take
I agree that the Fasano lineup is very far-fetched. The one without him isn't too bad, though. I'm not saying I'd bat Casey Blake in the leadoff spot if my job was on the line, but I'd at least consider it.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Congratulations to Cliff Lee - from AAA to All Star Starter.
Monday, July 07, 2008
Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis
For those who missed last week's edition, this is a new weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup. Again, in an attempt to be realistic I'll only include players on the active roster with 10+ plate appearances.
This Week's Results
Click here for full results.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Choo
Sizemore
Garko
Shoppach
Blake
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Kelly Shoppach and Ben Francisco switch spots, while everything else remains the same.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.036, down 0.127 runs per game from last week. The same players remain from last week, so in essence this means their performance has dropped since then.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.398 runs per game, meaning this would be an improvement of 0.651 runs per game. That in turn translates to 105 additional runs in a year, or 10.5 wins.
Defensive Plausibility
All infield spots are covered, with four outfielders who can rotate between the field and DH. As mentioned last week, this is the same starting nine that Eric Wedge has been using in real life, so there are no problems here.
Fan Believability
If Eric Wedge put together this batting order, would the fans call for his head? Possibly, especially in a year that has already been disappointing. Kelly Shoppach has been playing very well lately, but jumping him from ninth in the lineup to cleanup, and dropping Ben Francisco down to seventh would raise some eyebrows.
My Take
There's only one change from last week, so I'll basically repeat what I said then. I like Grady Sizemore batting second, where he can both get on base and drive in runs. Casey Blake has become the team's second-best hitter, so he's perfect in the #5 spot. And Shin-Soo Choo and Jamey Carroll lead the team in On Base Percentage, making them perfect for first and ninth, respectively.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Before a recent Indians-Twins game, Sports Time Ohio showed the won-lost records and ERAs of the starters:
Their ERAs were nearly identical. But judging by their records alone, Byrd was having a terrible year and Hernandez a very good one. That just goes to show you how much a pitcher's won-lost record can be affected by his team's overall performance.
This Week's Results
Click here for full results.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Choo
Sizemore
Garko
Shoppach
Blake
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Carroll
Changes From Last Week
Kelly Shoppach and Ben Francisco switch spots, while everything else remains the same.
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.036, down 0.127 runs per game from last week. The same players remain from last week, so in essence this means their performance has dropped since then.
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.398 runs per game, meaning this would be an improvement of 0.651 runs per game. That in turn translates to 105 additional runs in a year, or 10.5 wins.
Defensive Plausibility
All infield spots are covered, with four outfielders who can rotate between the field and DH. As mentioned last week, this is the same starting nine that Eric Wedge has been using in real life, so there are no problems here.
Fan Believability
If Eric Wedge put together this batting order, would the fans call for his head? Possibly, especially in a year that has already been disappointing. Kelly Shoppach has been playing very well lately, but jumping him from ninth in the lineup to cleanup, and dropping Ben Francisco down to seventh would raise some eyebrows.
My Take
There's only one change from last week, so I'll basically repeat what I said then. I like Grady Sizemore batting second, where he can both get on base and drive in runs. Casey Blake has become the team's second-best hitter, so he's perfect in the #5 spot. And Shin-Soo Choo and Jamey Carroll lead the team in On Base Percentage, making them perfect for first and ninth, respectively.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Before a recent Indians-Twins game, Sports Time Ohio showed the won-lost records and ERAs of the starters:
| Paul Byrd | Livan Hernandez |
| 3-9 | 8-5 |
| 5.26 | 5.22 |
Their ERAs were nearly identical. But judging by their records alone, Byrd was having a terrible year and Hernandez a very good one. That just goes to show you how much a pitcher's won-lost record can be affected by his team's overall performance.
Labels:
Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis
I've decided to start a new weekly column for the rest of the year. Every Sunday (I hope), I'll take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup. In an attempt to be realistic, I'll only include players on the active roster (not injured or in the minors), and only those with 10+ plate appearances (sorry, CC and Sal Fasano).
This Week's Results
Click here for full results.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Choo
Sizemore
Garko
Francisco
Blake
Peralta
Shoppach
Dellucci
Carroll
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.163
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.395 runs per game, meaning this would be an improvement of 0.768 runs per game. That in turn translates to 124 additional runs in a year, or 12.4 wins.
Defensive Plausibility
You can't just march out the top 9 hitters on your team every day; someone has to man each defensive position. For instance, earlier in the year, the Indians ideal lineup would have included Victor Martinez, Kelly Shoppach, Ryan Garko, and Travis Hafner, meaning one of those guys would have had to have played third base or right field.
However, this week's lineup is entirely plausible. All four infield positions plus catcher are covered, plus the remaining four outfielders can split time in the field or DH. In fact, this is the exact same starting 9 Eric Wedge has sent out for the last few games.
Fan Believability
If Eric Wedge put together this batting order, would the fans call for his head? For example, earlier in the year, Travis Hafner had a high on base percentage but a low slugging percentage, and the ideal lineup had him hitting leadoff. No one would have gone for that realistically.
However, this week's lineup has a very high believability/acceptability factor. Fans would have no trouble seeing Ben Francisco hit cleanup, and Garko, Blake, and Peralta area already hitting in the middle of the order. Some fans may not like Grady Sizemore dropping out of the leadoff spot, but there are just as many people who want to see him dropped down in the order so he can drive in runs.
My Take
I really like this lineup. Sabermetrically, the #2 guy is supposed to be your best all-around hitter. That's what Grady is. Shin-Soo Choo may not be a speed demon, but he has been getting on base. As has Jamie Carroll, which is what you want out of the #9 spot. Francisco may not have big power, but he's passable. The #5 spot is supposed to be your second best all-around hitter. You may not think of Casey Blake as that guy, but the way he's been hitting - and the way everyone else has been hitting - he fits the bill.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Is it by design or bad coincidence that Aaron Laffey keeps pitching day games and other games where most of the regulars are resting. The young pitcher needs run support, and he's not going to get it with the bench players in. That can't be good on his confidence, and that's a shame because he's pitched relatively well to date.
This Week's Results
Click here for full results.
This Week's Ideal Lineup
Choo
Sizemore
Garko
Francisco
Blake
Peralta
Shoppach
Dellucci
Carroll
Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.163
Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.395 runs per game, meaning this would be an improvement of 0.768 runs per game. That in turn translates to 124 additional runs in a year, or 12.4 wins.
Defensive Plausibility
You can't just march out the top 9 hitters on your team every day; someone has to man each defensive position. For instance, earlier in the year, the Indians ideal lineup would have included Victor Martinez, Kelly Shoppach, Ryan Garko, and Travis Hafner, meaning one of those guys would have had to have played third base or right field.
However, this week's lineup is entirely plausible. All four infield positions plus catcher are covered, plus the remaining four outfielders can split time in the field or DH. In fact, this is the exact same starting 9 Eric Wedge has sent out for the last few games.
Fan Believability
If Eric Wedge put together this batting order, would the fans call for his head? For example, earlier in the year, Travis Hafner had a high on base percentage but a low slugging percentage, and the ideal lineup had him hitting leadoff. No one would have gone for that realistically.
However, this week's lineup has a very high believability/acceptability factor. Fans would have no trouble seeing Ben Francisco hit cleanup, and Garko, Blake, and Peralta area already hitting in the middle of the order. Some fans may not like Grady Sizemore dropping out of the leadoff spot, but there are just as many people who want to see him dropped down in the order so he can drive in runs.
My Take
I really like this lineup. Sabermetrically, the #2 guy is supposed to be your best all-around hitter. That's what Grady is. Shin-Soo Choo may not be a speed demon, but he has been getting on base. As has Jamie Carroll, which is what you want out of the #9 spot. Francisco may not have big power, but he's passable. The #5 spot is supposed to be your second best all-around hitter. You may not think of Casey Blake as that guy, but the way he's been hitting - and the way everyone else has been hitting - he fits the bill.
Random Indians Thought of the Week
Is it by design or bad coincidence that Aaron Laffey keeps pitching day games and other games where most of the regulars are resting. The young pitcher needs run support, and he's not going to get it with the bench players in. That can't be good on his confidence, and that's a shame because he's pitched relatively well to date.
Labels:
Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis
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