Notre Dame Women's Basketball and Men's Hockey Teams Don't Fool Around

This is normally when I'd write my April Fool's Post, when I remember. (Past posts can be found here, here, and here. Unfortunately, I didn't save a screenshot of my "Kanka's Politics Page" gag.) Part of my column was going to call for and end to women's sports, so the athletes can "get in the kitchen and make me some pie."

But after last night, the women's basketball team doesn't deserve treatment like that, joking or not. A team without any dominant outside or inside threats outhustled, outplayed, and frustrated Candace Parker and the defending champion Lady Vols for a majority of their contest yesterday. They even exposed some holes in Parker's game, as several times they posted her up on the elbow and drove right past her. (Of course, Parker was quick to blame a teammate for her defensive failings.) In the end, though, it wasn't enough. Still, it was a great year for the Irish. Like I said, they didn't have any dominant inside or outside scoring threat. But they were queens of the mid-range jumper, ran the Princeton offense to perfection, and stole their way to a great transition game. Tulyah Gaines, Charel Allen, Amanda Tsipis, and Melissa D'Amico graduate, but a trio of freshman have already proven that 2008-09 won't be a step back. Devereaux Peters, a taller Allen, worked her way into the starting lineup before suffering an ACL injury. Becca Bruszewski broke out in the Tennessee game for 16 points (tying Allen for the team lead), and could be that inside threat the team leads. Brittany Mallory also saw good playing time last night, and could develop into the team's outside threat.

Meanwhile, the Irish hockey team has skated into the Frozen Four. A great offensive team went flat towards the end of the year, and made the NCAA tournament as only a four seed. But the icers turned a 4-3 second intermission lead over #1 seed New Hampshire into a 7-3 win, and came back the next day to beat defending national champion (and burgeoning rival) Michigan State 3-1. The hockey team next faces Michigan in the Frozen Four on April 10.

Looking Ahead: 2009 World Baseball Classic

The pools and first round sites for the 2009 World Baseball Classic have been announced. The same 16 teams will play, but three of the pools have been rearranged, and two new stadiums will see first round games. There has also been a rule change, as pool play has been changed from round robin to a double elimination bracket. This will let the results be decided on the field, instead of through too many crazy tiebreakers.

Pool A remains the same, with China, Chinese Taipei, Japan, and Korea once again playing in the Tokyo Dome.

Pool B now consists of Australia, Cuba, Mexico, and South Africa. Mexico City's Foro Sol Stadium will host these games.

Canada, Italy, and Venezuela join the US in Pool C. In 2006, the US played Canada, Mexico, and South Africa in pool play. Arguably, the road for the Americans will be just as tough in 2009. The Rogers Centre in Toronto will host these games.

Pool D now consists of Dominican Republic, the Netherlands, Panama, and Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico's Hiram Bithorn Stadium will once again host these games.


For more on the Beisbol Clasic del Mundo, check out my coverage of the inaugural tournament:
Introduction
Pool A
Pool B
Pool C
Pool D

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Former NBA star Kevin Johnson is running for mayor of Sacramento. It could be the first time a basketball player wins anything in Sacramento.

Knicks guard Stephon Marbury made an unexpected visit to Madison Square Garden last week. And we thought he'd chant "Fire Isiah" from home. It was the first time all season that Marbury's presence at the Garden wasn't directly responsible for their loss.

In football, Terrell Suggs filed a grievance against the Baltimore Ravens over whether he should be classified as a defensive end or a linebacker. QB Rex Grossman has filed a similar grievance against Chicago over whether he should be classified as a liability or a lost cause.

And USC recruit Maurice Simmons has been arrested on suspicion of robbery. He might end up not playing for the Trojans this year, and instead going straight to the Cincinnati Bengals.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

The Atlanta Hawks won the NBA's first replay since 1983 by downing the Miami Heat in a game that lasted just 51.9 seconds. Somehow Miami fans still had time to boo.

Wisconsin residents are still reeling from Brett Favre's retirement. The only thing worse would be if they had to go to a Bucks game. Favre replacement Aaron Rodgers called Shaquille O'Neal over the weekend. For advice on filling big shoes.

And turns out Warren Sapp announced his retirement on the same day as Brett Favre. Both of Sapp's fans were crushed. Of course, that could have just happened when he hugged them.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Miami Heat coach Pat Riley may miss several games with the team to scout NCAA draft prospects. It will be nice for Riley to finally see some quality basketball.

Miami's Dwyane Wade will miss the rest of the season to rehab his knee. He was not available for comment because he was too busy celebrating. The Miami Heat are so bad, Will Ferrell just made a movie about them.

An animal rights organization has organized a letter-writing campaign protesting Sports Illustrated's use of a chimpanzee in their annual Swimsuit Issue. And we thought the hairy knuckle dragger was just Roger Clemens.

And 60-year-old actor Billy Crystal will play for the New York Yankees in Thursday's exhibition game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Crystal looks forward to meeting his boyhood idol - Roger Clemens.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Warrick Dunn has expressed interest in playing for the Dallas Cowboys. Dunn is a perfect fit, as his name describes their recent playoff history.

Former Phillies reliever Mitch Williams was tossed out of his daughter's fifth grade basketball game for hurling insults at a female referee. It's the first time in memory that anything Williams hurled actually hit its target.

Nolan Ryan said that Major League Baseball ignored the problem with steroids. If Ryan were in charge, he would have treated the issue like Robin Ventura's face in a headlock.

Muhammad Ali was spotted at a recent Phoenix Suns basketball game. Or maybe it was a giant bobblehead doll.

And an Oregon urology clinic is offering a special deal on vasectomies to coincide with March Madness. So even if your team doesn't make the cut, you still can.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

March Madness is heating up. Dick Vitale's voice is already making those Head On commercials seem tolerable.

The Heat's Pat Riley was named the coach that players would least like to suit up for. Players all wanted to dress for Isiah Thomas, since they know how he treats employees that wear anything revealing.

Pacers owner Herb Simon announced "things are gonna change." And by "things" Simon means "season-ticket holders."

Calvin Klein has offered Tom Brady a deal to appear in a high profile underwear campaign. Odd, everyone already has photos of Brady being undressed by the Giants' defense.

And Samuel Peter won the WBC Heavyweight title in Cancun. It was the first time in Cancun that the phrase "body shots" was used outside of a bar.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

The Dodgers and Padres played an exhibition game in China. Before they started, their bats were checked for both cork and lead.

Daisuke Matsuzaka's wife has given birth to the couple's first son. The newborn weighs 6 pounds, 10 ounces and is expected to pitch fifth in the Red Sox's rotation.

The Rockets win streak is now at 21 games. Houston hasn't seen something grow this long since Roger Clemens' nose during a steroid hearing.

Miami guard Dwyane Wade has started to undergo shockwave therapy on his injured left knee. The treatment is almost as painful as playing for the Heat.

And the Cavaliers have signed center Lance Allred to a 10-day contract, making him the NBA's first legally deaf player. Ironically, Allred is the only one who hasn't heard the news.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

The Denver Nuggets set a franchise record for most points in a regulation game by downing the Seattle SuperSonics 168-116. We haven't seen anyone take a beating like that since Michael Jordan got divorced.

Miami forward Shawn Marion aggravated his sore back after backing his vehicle into a pole. Some people will do anything to avoid playing for the Heat.

Indiana Pacers Jamaal Tinsley and Marquis Daniels have avoided a trial on charges stemming from a 2007 bar fight. It's the Pacers first victory all season.

Canada earned a berth in the Olympic baseball tournament, defeating South Korea 4-3. The victory was particularly surprising since the Canadians were using hockey sticks.

And NFL Films has laid off nearly 10 percent of its workers. Luckily, the crew has already found jobs with the New England Patriots.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

A lockout in the NFL is a possibility in the next few years, and Dolphins fans couldn't be happier. The announcement caused such a celebration in Miami, most people thought Castro died.

A new study shows that HGH use doesn't improve strength or exercise capacity. It does, however, improve your ability to lie under oath.

Dice-K will start the Red Sox opener in Japan. It will be the most Japanese baseball game since the debut of PlayStation III.

And Larry Bird isn't sure he'll return as President of the Pacers. If he goes, the Pacers won't stop him because they can't stop anybody.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

MARCH MADNESS EDITION!

March Madness is officially upon us. It's a fantastic time of year where offices everywhere get to find out who is the best at analyzing dumb luck.

After a tornado took place during their victory last week, Georgia is trying to recreate their luck by holding practice in a trailer park.

Of the four #1 seeds, UNC is the only one to graduate more than half its players. Turns out Memphis doesn't give degrees for missed free throws.

And even though a number one seed has never lost a first round game, 1% of ESPN users still picked Portland State over Kansas. Dennis Kucinich has a better chance of winning. Actually, 1% is also the number of those who voted for Kucinich.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Sacramento Kings owners Joe and Gavin Maloof will give away a suitcase full of their own cash on an upcoming episode of Oprah's Big Give. It's the brother's biggest act of charity since signing Vitaly Potapenko.

After getting their first victory of this month, Miami Heat coach Pat Riley said that Jason Williams and Chris Quinn could match up to Hall of Famers Jerry West and Gail Goodrich. In fairness, West and Goodrich are in their 60s.

A new study has found that HGH may worsen athletic performance. In fairness to the drug, the study focused mostly upon the Kansas City Royals.

And German billiards champion Axel Buescher has been suspended for one year after testing positive for a banned substance. Wow. That's as likely as any of you knowing who Axel Buescher is. Turns out, Buescher was caught with an 8-ball.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Barry Bonds' agent said that it would take Bonds just two weeks to prepare, should any team sign him. One week to work on his timing, and one week to find a hat that fits.

Texas shortstop Michael Young had his house egged by his teammates as part of a Spring Training prank. Since it was the Rangers, most of the eggs missed.

The AA Huntsville Stars have offered Roger Clemens a contract to become the team's mascot. The Stars want to save money by not purchasing an oversized head.

The NBA will consider an expansion of instant replay. In related news, the NBA will consider an expansion of instant replay.

And a new poll has found that more New Yorkers are fans of the Red Sox then they are of the Knicks. It's hardly surprising considering that the Red Sox are clearly the better basketball team.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Pacers forward Mike Dunleavy told reporters that his father is his biggest fan. We are still searching for his second biggest fan.

The WWE has suspended wrestler Afa Anoai for violating their drug and steroid policy. By not taking them.

George Washington and St. Joseph's played a game at the Washington Nationals' new stadium. It will be the best baseball played there all season.

And Brian McNamee fainted while driving and crashed his car head-on into a city bus. Luckily, McNamee knows where to get painkillers. Ironically, the incident hurt less than sitting through a senate hearing.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

The New York Knicks may replace Isiah Thomas with recently unemployed Donnie Walsh of the Indiana Pacers. Which will fix everything. It's such a bad move that the Knicks would be better off with Donnie Wahlberg.

Cincinnati welcomed the opera to town. Then they realized it was just Chad Johnson saying, "me-me-me-me-me".

And Vanderbilt unexpectedly lost to Sienna in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. In related news, Vanderbilt alum and Sports Minute writer Keith Alberstadt is selling a television with a hole in the screen. Keith, have heart. Your basketball team may have lost and your bracket may be busted, but there's always football season. Oh. Nevermind.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Andy Pettitte will miss his first scheduled start of the regular season because of back spasms. Possibly because of that monkey he'd been carrying around for 8 years.

The Oakland A's ended their Japan series with a 5-1 victory over the Red Sox. The A's were happy with the win, though depressed that there are more A's fans in Japan than there are in Oakland.

The Chicago Cubs have named Kerry Wood their official closer. That way the twenty innings he pitches before he gets injured will be a bit more spread out.

A slick new Speedo swimsuit that has led to 12 world records this year will be examined by swimming's world governing body. A bathing suit hasn't attracted this much attention since Heidi Klum.

And the Montreal Canadiens clinched a playoff spot with a 7-5 win over the Ottawa Senators. The news comes as a surprise to many people who didn't realize the NHL lockout was over.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
Written by Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Adam Hofstetter, Ryan Murphy, Elliot Steingart, and Chris Strait

Jose Canseco has just completed his second book, making him the only man in the world to have written two books and read none. The book is tentatively titled, "In Case You Don't Hate Me Yet."

Celebrity chef Paul Prudhomme was grazed by a stray bullet at a Louisiana golf event. The shooter was aiming at someone in Texas.

The Seattle SuperSonics' move to Oklahoma City is closer to being finalized. The Sonics look forward to going from a sub-par team in Seattle to a sub-par team in Oklahoma City.

And Kansas State basketball coach Frank Martin says that he suspects Michael Beasley will head into the NBA draft. It's less about the millions of dollars he stands to earn and more about the ability to get out of Kansas.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

MLB Preview #6: AL Central

Cleveland Indians

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Grady Sizemore CF
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
Travis Hafner DH
Victor Martinez C
Ryan Garko 1B
Jhonny Peralta SS
David Dellucci/Jason Michaels LF
Franklin Gutierrez RF
Casey Blake 3B

Rotation
CC Sabathia
Fausto Carmona
Paul Byrd
Jake Westbrook
Clifford Lee
Aaron Laffey
Jeremy Sowers

The Indians tied for the best record in baseball last year, despite playing three "home" games at neutral sites (including one at their opponent's park). They also came tantalizingly close to the World Series. So the Tribe didn't need to change much... or so they hope. Their lineup is basically the one they road into the postseason last year, with a healthy David Dellucci replacing Kenny Lofton. Presumably, Jason Michaels will still sub for Dellucci against lefties. This team is not without questions. Can Asdrubal Cabrera hit well enough over a full season to keep his job? If not, can Josh Barfield come back to replace him? What about Andy Marte and Shin-Soo Choo, who are out of options? And how can you keep Ben Francisco in the minors when he'd likely start for many teams? Speaking of starting for many teams, the bench features Kelly Shoppach, one of the best backup backstops in baseball. Shoppach played the role of Paul Byrd's personal catcher, which got him a start once every five days. He definitely hit well enough to continue that role into this year, but manager Eric Wedge said that he won't continue that this year. Also on the bench is utility infielder Jamey Carroll, who brings the position versatility that Marte and Barfield lack.
In the rotation, the fifth spot was up for grabs this spring between Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey, and Jeremy Sowers. No one distinguished himself, but Lee played the least poorly and has likely worked his way back into the rotation. CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are both considered injury risks due to the high number of innings they threw last year. I'll believe that for Carmona, since the sinkerball can put a good deal of stress on a young arm. But Sabathia has proven himself to be very durable, always disproving those who criticize his body size. In the bullpen, Joe Borowski returns as closer coming off a year in which he led the AL in saves. He'll once again be supported by Raffy-R (Betancourt) and Raffy-L (Perez). Betancourt broke out last year, and is now considered one of the best relievers in the game. Joining the Raffy brothers is Japanese import Masahide Kobayashi, who was the biggest signing for the Tribe this offseason (easily beating out Jamey Carroll). Youngster Jensen Lewis is back, as is Tom Mastny - unless he's beaten out by non-roster invitee Jorge Julio or Scott Elarton.

Detroit Tigers

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Curtis Granderson CF
Placido Polanco 2B
Miguel Cabrera 3B
Magglio Ordonez RF
Gary Sheffield DH
Carlos Guillen 1B
Edgar Renteria SS
Jacque Jones LF
Pudge Rodriguez C

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Jeremy Bonderman
Kenny Rogers
Dontrelle Willis
Nate Robertson
Zach Miner
Jordan Tata
Yorman Bazardo

Yes, that is quite the lineup. But check out the Baseball Musings offense links - they're about even with the Indians. It helps that Polanco, Jones, and Rodriguez aren't exactly on base marvels. Speaking of guys who aren't on base marvels, a disgruntled Brandon Inge has been bumped to the bench. He could be groomed as Pudge's incumbent at catcher, or he could be traded to a team that needs a third baseman. We shall see. The rest of the bench is a roll call of journeymen - Vance Wilson, Mike Hessman, Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn, and Marcus Thames. Raburn, Cabrera, and Granderson are the only offensive players born in the 80s on this team. So exciting as the lineup is, it may already be starting to decline.
After all these years, the Tigers still have a very young starting rotation - even with the ageless Kenny Rogers. Sure, the lineup is aging, but the same isn't the case for the pitching staff. For those that haven't been paying attention, Dontrelle Willis has been on the decline over the past few years. But I can't help but think of the last blockbuster Marlins trade, where a declining player was thrown in so the Marlins wouldn't have to pay his contract anymore. That player is Mike Lowell, and he's bounced back quite well in Boston. The same could go for Willis. Of course, Dontrelle is making the difficult jump from the NL to the AL, so he could go in the other direction. The Tigers bullpen is a solid one, when they're all healthy. Todd Jones is back at closer, supported by fireballers Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney, former Indians farmhand Francisco Cruceta, and Jason Grilli and Bobby Seay.

Minnesota Twins

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Carlos Gomez CF
Brendan Harris/Nick Punto 2B
Joe Mauer C
Mike Cuddyer RF
Justin Morneau 1B
Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel/Craig Monroe DH
Mike Lamb 3B
Adam Everett SS

Rotation
Francisco Liriano
Livan Hernandez
Boof Bonser
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Nick Blackburn
Glen Perkins

This is definitely a rebuilding team. It's a shame, too, because Justin Morneau is just entering his prime years, and Joe Mauer is still a year or two away (unless you age him a few more years due to his injury history and position). As usual, the Twins feature absolutely no hitting in the middle infield. Nick Punto was the worst hitter of any regular player last year, and Adam Everett is a classic good hit, no field shortstop. Actually, Everett is easily the best shortstop playing south of the Canadian border (John McDonald), and it would have been fun to watch him play on the old Astroturf. The Twins also added some exciting new outfielders in Gomez and Young. The bench isn't much to speak of - it's basically catcher Mike Redmond plus the losers of the second base and DH battles.
The pitching rotation is an exciting one. Livan Hernandez was brought in to eat innings for the youngsters. Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser were both brought over in the AJ Pierzynski trade. Baker and Slowey are good ones as well. And as always, Minnesota has a solid bullpen. Joe Nathan is back, soon with a contract extension, and he'll again be supported by the likes of Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, submariner Pat Neshek, and asthmatic veteran Dennys Reyes.
There is one very positive consequence of the Twins' rebuilding. Notre Dame alumni Jeff Manship (SP) and Matt Macri (3B) have both been getting rave reviews in the Twins minor league system, and the team's youth could speed their paths to the majors.

Chicago White Sox

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Orlando Cabrera SS
Nick Swisher CF
Jim Thome DH
Paul Konerko 1B
Jermaine Dye RF
AJ Pierzynski C
Josh Fields/Joe Crede 3B
Carlos Quentin LF
Juan Uribe/Danny Richar/Alexei Ramirez 2B

Rotation
Mark Buehrle
Javier Vazquez
John Danks
Jose Contreras
Gavin Floyd

The White Sox are definitely better than last year's team. Are they good enough to compete in the division again? Most likely not, but at least they improved. Their core is still too old, but at least they've injected some new life with the likes of Nick Swisher and the apparent promotion of Josh Fields. Swisher is quite an athlete, but it will still be interesting to see if he can play center field every day. Second base is up for grabs, especially if Juan Uribe is cut as expected. Cuban signee Alexei Ramirez may not be ready for the job, but Richar or supersub Pablo Ozuna could be. This team unfortunately isn't too deep. There's Ozuna, catcher Toby Hall, and outfielders Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson. Anderson's inability to hit is the reason the Sox traded for Swisher in the first place.
Those five starters are the only guys left with any experience. That could spell trouble. The bullpen is a good one, but you can't just march them out there for nine innings every game. Bobby Jenks will be supported by former Royals closers Octavio Dotel and Mike MacDougal.

Kansas City Royals

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
David DeJesus CF
Mark Teahen LF
Billy Butler DH
Jose Guillen RF
Alex Gordon 3B
Ross Gload 1B
John Buck C
Mark Grudzielanek 2B
Tony Pena, Jr. SS

Rotation
Gil Meche
Brian Bannister
Zack Greinke
Kyle Davies
Jorge De La Rosa
Luke Hochevar
Brett Tomko
Leo Nunez

The Royals are finally headed in the right direction. It's actually a shame that the White Sox made their improvements, or else the Royals might have threatened for fourth place. Of course, I say that by looking at the top five spots in the Royals lineup, not the bottom four. Oh, John Buck is a very good hitting catcher, and veteran Mark Grudzielanek definitely has acquired his share of cageyness. But I'm not sold on Ross Gload as an everyday first baseman. Justin Huber and Ryan Shealy are still on the 40 man, but they're not exactly prospects anymore. Miguel Olivo is the backup catcher, and that's not a bad option for a backup. Veteran utilityman Esteban German and prospect Alberto Callaspo are the infield backups, and Joey Gathright will fight for playing time in the outfield.
Kansas City is slowly putting together a good starting rotation as well. Gil Meche, Zach Grienke, and stathead hero Brian Bannister all posted ERAs under 4 (with Meche and Grienke's under 3.70). I wonder how many teams can say that about their top three starters? There's a big dropoff after the big three, but top prospect Hochevar and the veteran Tomko should provide some help. Rule V pick Joakim Soria burst onto the scene as the Royals closer last year, and now he's back for more fun. He'll be supported by Jimmy Gobble, Joel Peralta, Brandon Duckworth, and Ron Mahay. Again, you may not have heard of those guys, or the others in the KC pen, but they all posted ERAs under 5 last year, and most put up ERAs under 4. Not too shabby.

Using Expected Values in an NCAA Bracket with Upset Points

Part 1

Our tournament bracket gives 1 point for every first round pick, 2 points for every second round pick, 3 points for third round, etc. But they also have "upset scoring." If you pick an underdog to win and they do, you get the normal point(s), plus bonus points worth the difference of the two seeds. For example, if you pick a 14 over a 3 in the first round and are right, you get (1 + (14 - 3)) = 12 points.

I found a page on ESPN.com that lists the historical results for each tournament pairing for each round, ever since the tournament went to 64/65 teams. For example, of the 84 3-14 matchups, the 3 seed has won 70 (83.3%) and the 14 seed has won 14 (16.7%).

I used this to calculate the Expected Value of each seed and matchup. For example, the first round EV for the 3 seed is (1 point * 83.3% probability) = 0.833. The first round EV for the 14 seed is (12 * 16.7%) ~ 2.

Two questions:
1. How should I calculate the probabilities for the later rounds? For example, 3 seeds made it to the second round 70 times and won 39 times. But if they had won all their first round games, they would have made it to the second round 84 times. Should I use the probability 39/70 or 39/84 to calculate the EV?

2. How do I pick which seeds to advance? In my example above, the short-term solution is to pick the 14 over the 3 seed because 2 > 0.83. But looking down the line, no 14 seeds have made it past the Sweet 16, while several 3 seeds have won the tournament. How do I determine the best "long term" solution?

I have a spreadsheet with all my data if someone would like me to email it to them.

Part 2 (Answering My Own Questions)

1. I took everything out of 84. This makes the numbers look much more sensical. For example, an 8 seed has made the championship once, and they won that championship (NC State?). (1/1)*13 = 13 is way to high an EV. But (1/84)*13 = 0.15 looks much better.

2. The best thing would be to plug everything into Excel (which I already did) and fight with Solver for the next two days until the bracket is due. But I don't have Solver installed on my work machine, which is good because now I can do real work and not get fired. So I set up three baseline scenarios:
a) Picking all top seeds gives me an EV of 16 points for an entire regional.

b) I started from the Elite 8 and worked backwards. The 1 seed had the best EV for winning the Elite 8 game, so they were locked in to get to that point. The 1 and 2 had the best EV for winning the Sweet 16 games, so they're locked in.
In the round of 32, I have to advance the 1 and 2 then. That leaves me to pick one team each from the 3/14/6/11 set and one from the 4/13/5/12 set. For the round of 32, the 6 and 13 actually had the best EVs out of those sets.
For the round of 64, I had the 1, 2, 6, and 12 locked in. Of the remaining games, the 14, 13, 10, and 9 were better.
This method gave me a regional EV of 23 points.

c) I started from the beginning and worked forwards. Looking head-to-head, 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, etc., here are the seeds that had better EVs than their first round opponents: 1, 2, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9.
In the round of 32, I paired those seeds as in the actual tournament, and these EVs were better: 1, 10, 6, 12.
Between those pairs (in the Sweet 16), the 1 and 6 had the highest EVs.
Of course, after that the 1 seeds advanced.
This method gave me a regional EV of 24.

So now what? I'm going to try this method on my work bracket this year, but just as a trial run. I have four regionals and three methods. I'm going to use one method for each regional, plus do the fourth regional (the East, Notre Dame's bracket) "by feel." I'll let you know the results.

MLB Preview #5: NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ryan Theriot SS
Alfonso Soriano CF
Derrek Lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Kosuke Fukudome RF
Mark DeRosa 2B
Felix Pie CF
Geovany Soto C

Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
Jason Marquis
Ryan Dempster
Jon Lieber
Sean Marshall
Angel Guzman

This lineup is still a work in progress, and that's probably a good thing. I do like the idea of hitting Soriano second (as perhaps the team's best batter) and Fukudome (WE PLAY IN AN OUTDOOR PARK) fifth - unless he shakes off his preseason rust and proves he can hit leadoff. This lineup actually looks pretty good, especially when you consider Pie and Soto's potential. The Cubs will again fight the Brewers for the division crown. The bench features brilliant defensive catcher Henry Blanco, pinch hitter extraordinaire Daryle Ward, and Ryan Theriot's fellow generic young middle infielders with vaguely foreign-sounding names - Ronnie Cedeno and Mike Fontenot. In the outfield there's Matt Murton and former second base prospect Eric Patterson, both of whom are considered trading chips. On a side note, it will be interesting to see how this lineup is rearranged if and when the Cubs trade for Brian Roberts. Mark DeRosa is a much better hitter than Ryan Theriot, so will the Northsiders try to cram DeRosa or Roberts into the shortstop hole in an attempt to keep both bats on the field? Or will DeRosa move to the outfield to give Pie more time to develop?
The rotation may not strike fear into anyone's heart, but I dare you to find a better starting five in this division. And at least they have options if and when the injuries come. The bullpen is solid, even if they haven't found a closer yet. That job will likely go to Kerry Wood or Bob Howry, or both. Carlos Marmol has been moved to the back end of the pen to set up for Wood and Howry. Neil Cotts and Scott Eyre provide two reliable left-handed options in relief.

Milwaukee Brewers

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rickie Weeks 2B
JJ Hardy SS
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Corey Hart RF
Mike Cameron CF
Bill Hall 3B
Jason Kendall C

Rotation
Ben Sheets
Jeff Suppan
Dave Bush
Yovanni Gallardo
Manny Parra
Chris Capuano
Carlos Villanueva
Claudio Vargas

The young guns are a year older and wiser. The defense is much improved, thanks to the addition of Mike Cameron and the move of Ryan Braun to left field. OK, this team will definitely give the Cubs a run for their money, even with Jason Kendall as their best option at catcher. Former Tiger Eric Munson has come back from the dead to fight for a spot as Kendall's backup. ND hero Craig Counsell will serve as the utility infielder, again mentoring the young duo of Hardy and Weeks. In the outfield, Tony Gwynn, Jr. and Gabe Kapler are fighting for roster spots. By also carrying Gabe Gross, the Brewers have cornered the market on outfielders named "Gabe."
The Brewers are going for quality AND quantity in the starting rotation, which is not surprising considering Sheets and Gallardo's injury histories. There's some good talent in there, and it will complement the offense well. The bullpen is a who's who of Mitchell Report and 2007 trade deadline names. Eric Gagne starts the season as Milwaukee's closer, supported by Derrick Turnbow, Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres, David Riske, Seth McClung, and Randy Choate.

St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Cesar Izturis SS
Rick Ankiel CF
Albert Pujols 1B
Troy Glaus 3B
Chris Duncan LF
Yadier Molina C
Skip Schumaker/Brian Barton RF
Adam Kennedy 2B

Rotation
Adam Wainwright
Braden Looper
Joel Pineiro
Anthony Reyes
Kyle Lohse
Matt Clement
Chris Carpenter
Brad Thompson
Mark Mulder
Todd Wellemeyer

This team has gone from a World Series championship to a disappointing and stressful season to full rebuilding mode. Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel will have to do all they can to support Albert Pujols. After those three, this lineup isn't much to write home about. Except, of course, for Brian Barton. The aerospace engineer and Rule V pick from Cleveland has been tearing up spring training, and could be hitting his way into the starting lineup. On the bench, defensive specialist Jason LaRue and hitter Josh Phelps will fight to back up Yadier Molina. Aaron Miles is the team's utility infielder. Another former Indian, Ryan Ludwick, will serve as backup infielder and a power right handed bat off the bench.
The opening day rotation doesn't look like much - two former relievers in Looper and Pineiro, and two young guys yet to break out in Wainwright and Reyes. But if the Cards get lucky and can get Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Matt Clement healthy and back to top form, they could easily have the top rotation in the lineup. Of course, that's a HUGE if. Jason Isringhausen is still plugging away as St. Louis's underrated closer. He'll be supported by Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer, and whoever else doesn't make the rotation.

Houston Astros

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Michael Bourn CF
Kaz Matsui 2B
Miguel Tejada SS
Lance Berkman 1B
Carlos Lee LF
Hunter Pence RF
Ty Wigginton 3B
JR Towles C

Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Brandon Backe
Woody Williams
Shawn Chacon
Chris Sampson
Felipe Paulino

The Astros have struggled to compete in the Central over the past couple years, but a quick glance at this lineup shows that it's built to win right now. Tejada, Berkman, and Lee form a formidable core. Pence, Wigginton, and Towles aren't bad in their own right, and Michael Bourn is poised for a breakout. Kaz Matsui is a question mark, but as always Mark Loretta is a more than adequate backup. Speaking of backups, Brad Ausmus will be back catching, Geoff Blum joins Loretta as a backup infielder, and Darin Erstad and former Marlin Reggie Abercrombie will be the backup outfielders.
The lineup is solid, but the rotation is lacking. Roy Oswalt may be one of the best, but there's virtually nothing behind him. Brandon Backe is returning from injury, which helps. But Wandy Rodriguez, Woody Williams, and Shawn Chacon don't strike fear in anyone's hearts. Even the bullpen, which has been traditionally chock-full of quality setup men, is a problem spot this year. New acquisition Jose Valverde will be supported by Doug Brocail and a cast of no-names.

Cincinnati Reds

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ryan Freel CF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Ken Griffey, Jr. RF
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
David Ross C
Alex Gonzalez SS

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Josh Fogg
Homer Bailey
Jeremy Affeldt
Edinson Volquez

This team could go either way, especially under the leadership of Dusty Baker. It has some decent players, but I don't think the Reds have quite enough to compete with the Cubs and Brewers. Phillips, Griffey (when healthy), and Dunn should hit well, as should Joey Votto. Cincinnati has the best prospect in the game in CF Jay Bruce, but all indications (including the recent signing of Corey Patterson) are that Bruce won't be playing north of the Ohio River anytime soon. The Reds have some decent infield backups in Scott Hatteberg, Juan Castro, and Jeff Keppinger. In the outfield, Norris Hopper should see decent playing time. Behind the plate, Javier Valentin will backup David Ross.
The rotation starts strong with Aaron Harang, but isn't spectacular after that. Arroyo, Belisle, Fogg, and Volquez are serviceable but not spectacular. Affeldt will return to a starter's role after several years in the bullpen. Experts have started to sour on Homer Bailey already, but he's perhaps a victim of those same experts' lofty expectations. He's not washed up just yet. Pop quiz: who has been the Reds closer for the past few seasons? I bet you couldn't name David Weathers. Weathers moves into a setup role for the newly acquired Francisco Cordero. Mike Stanton and Gary Majewski will also work out of the Cincinnati pen this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Nate McLouth/Nyjer Morgan CF
Freddy Sanchez 2B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Jason Bay LF
Xavier Nady RF
Jose Bautista 3B
Ronny Paulino C
Jack Wilson SS

Rotation
Tom Gorzelanny
Ian Snell
Paul Maholm
Matt Morris
Zach Duke
John Van Benschoten
Bryan Bullington

This team may slowly be moving in the right direction. The core of Sanchez, LaRoche, Bay, and Nady, is a good start, especially with the addition of Ronny Paulino behind the plate. McLouth, Morgan, Bautista, and Wilson can all put up at least league average numbers, which is a plus. Now to work on the bench, which for the time being features Ryan (god_doumit) Doumit and former Orioles/Indians utilityman Chris Gomez.
The rotation is starting to take shape too. Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell both posted ERAs under 4, and their win totals would obviously be better on a better team. (As it is, Gorzelanny still finished 14-10.) Morris put up OK numbers. Duke had a rough year, but he'll undoubtedly bounce back. Matt Capps is back as Pittsburgh's closer, supported by Byung-Hyun Kim and LOOGY star Damaso Marte.

MLB Previews and Selection Shows

I'm working on my NL Central preview, but of course I decided to work on the only six team division in baseball during finals week. Good good. So if I don't get it up Sunday night, look for it Monday night.

Meanwhile, Coach Brey and the ND men will be appearing on CBS's selection show Sunday at 6:00 PM Eastern, with a cameo appearance by the band.

The women's selection show is at 7:00 PM Eastern on ESPN.

Despite early exits in the Big East tournament, it looks like both teams will still be #4 seeds, give or take a spot in either direction.

Bubble Watch

Bubble Watch should be renamed "Seed Watch" this year, as the men and the women aren't worrying about whether they'll make the Big Dance, but instead how high they'll be placed. Let's see what the experts are saying.

ND Men's Basketball: The men have held steady at #21, according to CollegeRPI.com. CollegeRPI also has the men as a #4 seed, playing out West (Denver, CO) versus Ohio State. ESPN's Bracketology also has the men as a #4 seed, playing against Virginia Commonwealth in the East (Washington, DC).

ND Women's Basketball: CollegeRPI has the women at #12 in the RPI, and a #3 seed in the Oklahoma City Regional. They'd start by playing Quinnipiac on Purdue's campus, which is a great advantage for them. ESPN also has the women starting in East Lafayette, but as a #4 seed against Gonzaga in the Spokane Regional.

MLB Preview #4: AL East

Boston Red Sox

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Kevin Youkilis 1B
David Ortiz DH
Manny Ramirez LF
JD Drew RF
Mike Lowell 3B
Jason Varitek C
Coco Crisp/Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Julio Lugo SS

Rotation
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz
Tim Wakefield
Jon Lester
Curt Schilling
Julian Tavarez

There's virtually no change to the starting lineup, which isn't a bad thing if you're the defending champs. Everyone's a year older, which may not be a good thing for guys like Ortiz, Ramirez, Lowell, and Varitek. But it should be a positive for guys like Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ellsbury. The only problem this offense has could be their depth, especially if they trade away Coco Crisp as predicted. The only other outfielders on the 40-man are Brandon Moss and Jonathan Van Every. With Ramirez and Drew's injury record, and Ellsbury's inexperience, that could be an issue. On the infield, Alex Cora is back, and he's joined by Sean Casey. It will be interesting to see if Kevin Youkilis sees any time at third base on days when Lowell has off. Youk has played third sparingly in the past few seasons, but his gold glove-caliber play at first indicates that he might still be able to handle the hot corner.
The Sox rotation may have lost Curt Schilling for the season, but in Clay Buccholz they add arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball. Add Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, and X-Factor Wakefield, and again they have a rotation with few holes. And then there's the bullpen, headlined by Jonathan Papelbon, again being supported by Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Julian Tavarez, Mike Timlin, and the Baseball Encyclopedia's number one entry, David Aardsma. The Red Sox are the Yankees with a competent front office. They scare me to death.

New York Yankees

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui DH
Jorge Posada C
Jason Giambi/Wilson Betemit/Shelly Duncan 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF

Rotation
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Phillip Hughes
Mike Mussina
Ian Kennedy
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Carl Pavano
Chase Wright

This is the lineup the Yankees will probably use. But as in the past, if I was running the team, my lineup would look nothing like that. I'd move Damon down to the bottom of the lineup (7, 8, or 9) and move everyone else up a spot. Or, if Posada can repeat his 2007 numbers, I'd move Jeter and Abreu up and slide Jorge into the 3 hole. Giambi is still probably a better hitter than Betemit and Duncan, but I don't want his glove anywhere near the field. I'd rather see Matsui at first, just because he's a competent fielder. This team, as usual, is not without its holes. Beyond Betemit in the infield, Duncan in the outfield, and Jose Molina catching, there really is no bench. Perhaps some of the higher profile non-roster invitees can fix that, though.
The rotation no longer strikes fear into the hearts of anyone, but all the starters have to do is survive for five or six innings and not give up more runs than this powerful (but lopsided) offense can score. At that point, Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain, and new acquisition LaTroy Hawkins take over, with the help of Rowdy Kyle Farnsworth. Between Rivera and Hawkins' age and Chamberlain entering his sophomore season, the bullpen won't be as perfect as it once was, but again with this offense they don't need to be.

Toronto Blue Jays

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
David Eckstein SS
Lyle Overbay 1B
Alex Rios RF
Frank Thomas DH
Vernon Wells CF
Scott Rolen 3B
Aaron Hill 2B
Reed Johnson LF
Greg Zaun C

Rotation
Roy Halladay
AJ Burnett
Dustin McGowan
Shaun Marcum
Jesse Litsch
Gustavo Chacin

The left side of the Jays infield is brand new, thanks to the addition of former Cardinals teammates Eckstein and Rolen. This is a solid lineup, even with a 40-year-old Frank Thomas, an injury-plagued Scott Rolen, and a Mitchell Report appearance by Greg Zaun. Their infield is very deep, thanks to every Indians middle infield farmhand who ever lived (or really just John McDonald, Marco Scutaro, and Joe Inglett). Outfield depth could be a problem, though. Adam Lind will reportedly start the season in AAA, and while Matt Stairs hit well enough to earn a contract extension, he probably should be used in the outfield as sparingly as possible. That really just leaves Scutaro and Inglett to back up Johnson, Wells, and Rios. Rod Barajas is the backup catcher.
The rotation has a great one-two punch, when both Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett are healthy. Behind them are three league-average pitchers in McGowan, Marcum, and Litsch. So it's not a bad rotation, but not one likely to make much noise in the AL East. Closer BJ Ryan will be supported by Jeremy Accardo and Scott Downs. Accardo and Downs may not be household names, but both posted ERAs under 2.20 in 60+ appearances last year. Brian Tallet, another former Indians farmhand, will also see decent time coming out of the pen.

Baltimore Orioles

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Brian Roberts/Freddie Bynum2B
Melvin Mora 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Aubrey Huff DH
Luke Scott LF
Kevin Millar 1B
Ramon Hernandez C
Adam Jones CF
Luis Hernandez SS

Rotation
Jeremy Guthrie
Daniel Cabrera
Adam Loewen
Garrett Olson
Troy Patton
Radhames Liz
Brian Burres
Jon Leicester

The new look Orioles are very young up the middle, especially if the impending trade of Brian Roberts goes through. In fact, the only veteran left in the middle defensive positions (C, 2B, SS, CF) would be Ramon Hernandez, and he's only keeping the spot warm for top pick Matt Wieters. This team has some pop in Huff, Scott, and Jay Gibbons, and Nick Markakis's stock continues to rise. But they just don't have enough to do well in this division this year. The bench features Jay Payton and Tike Redman in the outfield and, well, that's about it.
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for Jeremy Guthrie's newfound success in Baltimore. But when your team's ace is a guy you claimed off the waiver wire last year, that's not saying much. But Guthrie and Adam Loewen are a good start, and Troy Patton and Radhames Liz are right behind Matt Weiters at #2 and #3 on Baseball America's top 10 list for the Orioles. So the young core is there, but it's not quite ready yet. In addition to Guthrie in the starting rotation, the bullpen features even more faces familiar to Indians fans. Danys Baez will close for Baltimore, supported by Fernando Cabrera (also claimed off the waiver wire last year). Chris Ray, Jamie Walker, and submariner Chad Bradford help to make this a bullpen that will be envied by quite a few clubs.

Tampa Bay Rays

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Akinori Iwamura 2B
Carl Crawford LF
Carlos Pena 1B
BJ Upton CF
Rocco Baldelli RF
Clifford Floyd/Jonny Gomes DH
Evan Longoria 3B
Dioner Navarro C
Jason Bartlett SS

Rotation
Scott Kazmir
Jamie Shields
Matt Garza
Edwin Jackson
Andy Sonnanstine
Jason Hammel
JP Howell
David Price

The Rays will finish no worse than fourth place in the division this year. Most educated estimates have them winning 85+ games and finishing third in the East. The young talent just keeps on coming. Sure, Carlos Pena and BJ Upton may not match their breakout 2007 numbers, but even a slight falloff would mean a very good year for the pair. And they're still surrounded by Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, and whatever healthy production they can get from Rocco Baldelli. Cliff Floyd give the team some veteran leadership and some pop, and he'll fight for playing time with Jonny Gomes. I have to believe that the Rays will just play the hot hand there. New acquisition Jason Bartlett may not be great, but he's a step up from last year's shortstops. And then there's that Evan Longoria guy, who's been tearing up spring pitching. The bench is the lone weak spot of this Rays offense, as infielder Willie Aybar is the only name of note.
The starting rotation has its fair share of young talent in Scott Kazmir, Jamie Shields, and Twins pickup Matt Garza. Kazmir may still be rough around the edges, but he's becoming a dominant strikeout pitcher. David Price, last year's #1 overall pick is coming soon, too. Jamie Shields came out of nowhere in 2007, and the reason you didn't hear more about his is that the Rays pen was basically nonexistent. But Tampa Bay's front office made the relieving corps its number one priority this offseason, and while the changes weren't breathtaking, they should be effective. Troy Percival has been brought in as the new closer, moving Al Reyes (the only effective reliever in '07) to a setup role.

MLB Preview #4: AL East

Boston Red Sox

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Kevin Youkilis 1B
David Ortiz DH
Manny Ramirez LF
JD Drew RF
Mike Lowell 3B
Jason Varitek C
Coco Crisp/Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Julio Lugo SS

Rotation
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz
Tim Wakefield
Jon Lester
Curt Schilling
Julian Tavarez

There's virtually no change to the starting lineup, which isn't a bad thing if you're the defending champs. Everyone's a year older, which may not be a good thing for guys like Ortiz, Ramirez, Lowell, and Varitek. But it should be a positive for guys like Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ellsbury. The only problem this offense has could be their depth, especially if they trade away Coco Crisp as predicted. The only other outfielders on the 40-man are Brandon Moss and Jonathan Van Every. With Ramirez and Drew's injury record, and Ellsbury's inexperience, that could be an issue. On the infield, Alex Cora is back, and he's joined by Sean Casey. It will be interesting to see if Kevin Youkilis sees any time at third base on days when Lowell has off. Youk has played third sparingly in the past few seasons, but his gold glove-caliber play at first indicates that he might still be able to handle the hot corner.
The Sox rotation may have lost Curt Schilling for the season, but in Clay Buccholz they add arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball. Add Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, and X-Factor Wakefield, and again they have a rotation with few holes. And then there's the bullpen, headlined by Jonathan Papelbon, again being supported by Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Julian Tavarez, Mike Timlin, and the Baseball Encyclopedia's number one entry, David Aardsma. The Red Sox are the Yankees with a competent front office. They scare me to death.

New York Yankees

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui DH
Jorge Posada C
Jason Giambi/Wilson Betemit/Shelly Duncan 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF

Rotation
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Phillip Hughes
Mike Mussina
Ian Kennedy
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Carl Pavano
Chase Wright

This is the lineup the Yankees will probably use. But as in the past, if I was running the team, my lineup would look nothing like that. I'd move Damon down to the bottom of the lineup (7, 8, or 9) and move everyone else up a spot. Or, if Posada can repeat his 2007 numbers, I'd move Jeter and Abreu up and slide Jorge into the 3 hole. Giambi is still probably a better hitter than Betemit and Duncan, but I don't want his glove anywhere near the field. I'd rather see Matsui at first, just because he's a competent fielder. This team, as usual, is not without its holes. Beyond Betemit in the infield, Duncan in the outfield, and Jose Molina catching, there really is no bench. Perhaps some of the higher profile non-roster invitees can fix that, though.
The rotation no longer strikes fear into the hearts of anyone, but all the starters have to do is survive for five or six innings and not give up more runs than this powerful (but lopsided) offense can score. At that point, Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain, and new acquisition LaTroy Hawkins take over, with the help of Rowdy Kyle Farnsworth. Between Rivera and Hawkins' age and Chamberlain entering his sophomore season, the bullpen won't be as perfect as it once was, but again with this offense they don't need to be.

Toronto Blue Jays

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball Musings Rotation Evaluation
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
David Eckstein SS
Lyle Overbay 1B
Alex Rios RF
Frank Thomas DH
Vernon Wells CF
Scott Rolen 3B
Aaron Hill 2B
Reed Johnson LF
Greg Zaun C

Rotation
Roy Halladay
AJ Burnett
Dustin McGowan
Shaun Marcum
Jesse Litsch
Gustavo Chacin

The left side of the Jays infield is brand new, thanks to the addition of former Cardinals teammates Eckstein and Rolen. This is a solid lineup, even with a 40-year-old Frank Thomas, an injury-plagued Scott Rolen, and a Mitchell Report appearance by Greg Zaun. Their infield is very deep, thanks to every Indians middle infield farmhand who ever lived (or really just John McDonald, Marco Scutaro, and Joe Inglett). Outfield depth could be a problem, though. Adam Lind will reportedly start the season in AAA, and while Matt Stairs hit well enough to earn a contract extension, he probably should be used in the outfield as sparingly as possible. That really just leaves Scutaro and Inglett to back up Johnson, Wells, and Rios. Rod Barajas is the backup catcher.
The rotation has a great one-two punch, when both Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett are healthy. Behind them are three league-average pitchers in McGowan, Marcum, and Litsch. So it's not a bad rotation, but not one likely to make much noise in the AL East. Closer BJ Ryan will be supported by Jeremy Accardo and Scott Downs. Accardo and Downs may not be household names, but both posted ERAs under 2.20 in 60+ appearances last year. Brian Tallet, another former Indians farmhand, will also see decent time coming out of the pen.

Baltimore Orioles

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Brian Roberts/Freddie Bynum2B
Melvin Mora 3B
Nick Markakis RF
Aubrey Huff DH
Luke Scott LF
Kevin Millar 1B
Ramon Hernandez C
Adam Jones CF
Luis Hernandez SS

Rotation
Jeremy Guthrie
Daniel Cabrera
Adam Loewen
Garrett Olson
Troy Patton
Radhames Liz
Brian Burres
Jon Leicester

The new look Orioles are very young up the middle, especially if the impending trade of Brian Roberts goes through. In fact, the only veteran left in the middle defensive positions (C, 2B, SS, CF) would be Ramon Hernandez, and he's only keeping the spot warm for top pick Matt Wieters. This team has some pop in Huff, Scott, and Jay Gibbons, and Nick Markakis's stock continues to rise. But they just don't have enough to do well in this division this year. The bench features Jay Payton and Tike Redman in the outfield and, well, that's about it.
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy for Jeremy Guthrie's newfound success in Baltimore. But when your team's ace is a guy you claimed off the waiver wire last year, that's not saying much. But Guthrie and Adam Loewen are a good start, and Troy Patton and Radhames Liz are right behind Matt Weiters at #2 and #3 on Baseball America's top 10 list for the Orioles. So the young core is there, but it's not quite ready yet. In addition to Guthrie in the starting rotation, the bullpen features even more faces familiar to Indians fans. Danys Baez will close for Baltimore, supported by Fernando Cabrera (also claimed off the waiver wire last year). Chris Ray, Jamie Walker, and submariner Chad Bradford help to make this a bullpen that will be envied by quite a few clubs.

Tampa Bay Rays

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Akinori Iwamura 2B
Carl Crawford LF
Carlos Pena 1B
BJ Upton CF
Rocco Baldelli RF
Clifford Floyd/Jonny Gomes DH
Evan Longoria 3B
Dioner Navarro C
Jason Bartlett SS

Rotation
Scott Kazmir
Jamie Shields
Matt Garza
Edwin Jackson
Andy Sonnanstine
Jason Hammel
JP Howell
David Price

The Rays will finish no worse than fourth place in the division this year. Most educated estimates have them winning 85+ games and finishing third in the East. The young talent just keeps on coming. Sure, Carlos Pena and BJ Upton may not match their breakout 2007 numbers, but even a slight falloff would mean a very good year for the pair. And they're still surrounded by Akinori Iwamura, Carl Crawford, and whatever healthy production they can get from Rocco Baldelli. Cliff Floyd give the team some veteran leadership and some pop, and he'll fight for playing time with Jonny Gomes. I have to believe that the Rays will just play the hot hand there. New acquisition Jason Bartlett may not be great, but he's a step up from last year's shortstops. And then there's that Evan Longoria guy, who's been tearing up spring pitching. The bench is the lone weak spot of this Rays offense, as infielder Willie Aybar is the only name of note.
The starting rotation has its fair share of young talent in Scott Kazmir, Jamie Shields, and Twins pickup Matt Garza. Kazmir may still be rough around the edges, but he's becoming a dominant strikeout pitcher. David Price, last year's #1 overall pick is coming soon, too. Jamie Shields came out of nowhere in 2007, and the reason you didn't hear more about his is that the Rays pen was basically nonexistent. But Tampa Bay's front office made the relieving corps its number one priority this offseason, and while the changes weren't breathtaking, they should be effective. Troy Percival has been brought in as the new closer, moving Al Reyes (the only effective reliever in '07) to a setup role.

Thirteen Better Ways To Decide Who Kicks Off, In Increasing Order Of How Much Better They Are Than A Coin Toss

by Klondike, 2007 KankaNation Laetare Recipient

#13: Salary
Whichever team has the highest average salary per player gets the decision.

#12: Weight
Whichever team weighs the collective most wins.

#11: Phone-in Votes
Fans would phone in their votes for either team. The scoreboard would keep a tally. A judge with an English accent would make disparaging comments. The team with the most votes wins.

#10: Bingo
Every member of each team gets a bingo board. The home team would provide the old lady to pick the bingo balls. First player to get bingo wins the decision for his team.

#9: Tip Off
This would work pretty much exactly like basketball. The two quarterbacks would stand toe to toe, with the referee holding the ball in the middle. Ball goes up, one quarterback comes back down with it.

#8: Rock Paper Scissors
One member from each team would face off in this popular form of hand-to-hand combat. Best two out of three wins the decision.

#7: Puppy
Each team would line up on their own 45-yard-line. A puppy would be placed at center field. Whichever team can coax the puppy to their line gets the decision.

#6: Anchorman
Three members from each team stand in a line. The first player in each line is given a gallon-pitcher of beer. This player drinks as much as he can without stopping, and then hands the pitcher to the next player in his line. The next player drinks as much of the remainder as he can, then passes the pitcher to the last player, or "anchorman". This player must finish the pitcher. Whichever team finishes the pitcher first gets the decision.

#5: Whammy
The scoreboard would light up with a checkerboard pattern of squares. Some squares have footballs, some squares have whammies. Each quarterback would be given a buzzer, and would continue buzzing in until one of them gets a whammy. Bonus: squares can be filled with other prizes besides the football, such as a fondue set or a tennis bracelet.

#4: Simon Says
Every team member participates. The color commentator for the game would be the caller. The last player standing wins the decision.

#3: Cheerleaders
The decision would go to the team with the hottest cheerleaders.

#2: Fisticuffs
This would be a three-round duke-it-out. Since a knockout is unlikely with all those pads, the player with the highest score at the end would win the decision. Standard scoring rules used in boxing would apply.

#1: Break-Dance Contest
One member from each team would give us thirty seconds of his best moves. Each fan in the stadium would have one electronic vote. The team with the most votes wins.

MLB Preview #3: NL East

Editor's Note: Regular KankaNation readers, please scroll down to see this year's Laetare Medal winner(s).

Philadelphia Phillies

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Pat Burrell LF
Geoff Jenkins RF
Pedro Feliz/Greg Dobbs/Wes Helms 3B
Carlos Ruiz C

Rotation
Brett Myers
Cole Hamels
Kyle Kendrick
Jamie Moyer
Adam Eaton
JD Durbin

Well, this is basically the lineup that won the division last year. Rollins, Utley, and Howard are great, and Burrell is better than he's given credit for in Philadelphia. The rest, I suppose, are just good enough. It's an interesting battle at third base, where each candidate has his strengths and weaknesses. The bench features middle infielder Eric Bruntlett, who is a more than adequate backup for Rollins and Utley, and might even be able to find a starting job somewhere. The outfield is very deep, with Chris Snelling, So Taguchi, and Jayson Werth coming off the bench. I imagine that Snelling and/or Taguchi will see decent playing time as defensive replacements late in ballgames.
The rotation probably doesn't strike you as much, but that's most likely because you don't know that Kendrick was 10-4 with an ERA of 3.87 last year. Not too shabby. Myers is not only back in the starting rotation after a stint in the bullpen, but he'll also be the Phils opening day starter for his trouble. Eaton and Durbin may not have lived up to their past hype, but they're still serviceable number five guys. The bullpen is a good one, headlined by new closer Brad Lidge, if and when he becomes healthy again. He's in a new division now, and hopefully one that hasn't caught on yet to how he tips his pitches. Unfortunately, he's in a great hitters' ballpark, so it will be interesting to see how that wears on his already fragile psyche. Lidge has a great supporting cast, headlined by Tom Gordon, JC Romero, Ryan Madson, and JD Durbin's older brother Chad, who started for Detroit last year.

New York Mets

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jose Reyes SS
Luis Castillo 2B
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Carlos Delgado 1B
Moises Alou LF
Ryan Church RF
Brian Schneider C

Rotation
Johan Santana
Pedro Martinez
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Orlando Hernandez
Mike Pelfrey
Jason Vargas

I'm afraid to say it, but this is no longer a great lineup. It's still a good lineup, just not great. Of course, when you compare it to Philadelphia's, they come out pretty even. The big question this spring has been first base. Carlos Delgado isn't getting any younger, and they don't have a true backup for him. Their infield bench consists of three light hitting middle infielders in Damion Easley, Ruben Gotay, and Anderson Hernandez. Of course, they do have Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson as outfield backups, so they can either put Anderson at first, or move Alou or Church to first and put Chavez in the outfield. It will be interesting to see how the new catcher platoon plays out, too. I assume Schneider will play against righties and Ramon Castro against lefties. Schneider was a decent bat in the past, but he didn't act like it last year. Meanwhile, Castro hit well in a reserve role. Perhaps a split of playing time will serve both of them well.
The big news this offseason, even outplaying the big Marlins-Tigers trade, was the Johan Santana deal. Santana wasn't himself last year, but that may have been due to his supporting cast in Minnesota. If Pedro can stay healthy, and if Maine doesn't fall off too much, this is a good rotation. And even if someone falters, Mike Pelfrey is waiting in the wings. The bullpen looks great, unless you're a pessimist. Billy Wagner has a great supporting cast, starting with Aaron Heilman. Duaner Sanchez is lights-out, but didn't pitch at all in 2007. Pedro Feliciano is only 32, but seems much older. Scott Schoeneweis is 35 and has been linked to steroids. And Jorge Sosa can't keep his ERA under 5 in even-numbered years. (That's not hyperbole, look it up.)

Atlanta Braves

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Yunel Escobar SS
Kelly Johnson 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Mark Teixeira 1B
Jeff Francoeur RF
Brian McCann C
Matt Diaz LF
Mark Kotsay CF

Rotation
John Smoltz
Tim Hudson
Tom Glavine
Mike Hampton
Jair Jurrjens
Chuck James
Jo-Jo Reyes
Jeff Bennett
Buddy Carlyle
Anthony Lerew

This is just an interesting team all around. They're part building for the future (Escobar, Johnson, Diaz), part ready to win right now (Jones, Teixeira, Francoeur, McCann), and part washed up (Kotsay). It's a decent team, and could surprise some people by coming in second place, but I'm not sure they can win the division. The bench is equal parts thin and young, featuring Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Scott Thorman, and Brandon Jones.
Like the lineup, the rotation is equal parts building for the future (Jurrjens, James, Lerew), ready to win right now (Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine), and washed up (Hampton). Between Jurrjens, Glavine, and Hampton, the rotation is almost more about storylines than it is about winning ballgames. The bullpen, meanwhile, doesn't feature nearly as many high-profile names. The talented Rafael Soriano will get a shot at closing, supported by Will Ohman and Manny Acosta.
Off-the-wall thought of the day: The Braves franchise can already boast Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth (who finished his career in Boston). Why not take a flier on the latest home run champ, Barry Bonds?

Washington Nationals

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Felipe Lopez 2B/SS
Christian Guzman SS/Ronnie Belliard 2B
Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Nick Johnson/Dmitri Young 1B
Austin Kearns RF
Wily Mo Pena LF
Lastings Milledge CF
Paul Lo Duca/Johnny Estrada C

Rotation
Shawn Hill
John Patterson
Jason Bergmann
John Lannan
Matt Chico
Tim Redding
Tyler Clippard
Garrett Mock
Joel Hanrahan

Everyone who cares about the Nationals is looking at the first base situation. Following a solid 2007, Dmitri Young was given a multi-year deal. But Nick Johnson is back from injury this year. Who gets the starting nod? Presumably, Young won't be playing the outfield anymore, and they don't really need him there. Besides the talented young trio of Kearns, Pena, and Milledge, the Nats also have Elijah Dukes, Willie Harris, Ryan Langerhans, and Rob Macowiak coming off the bench. So Young or Johnson could be on their way out. The middle infield has a few options as well, or perhaps a platoon situation. In a limited role, Christian Guzman hit well for the first time in his life. Felipe Lopez, meanwhile, faltered. So we may see all three middle infielders share playing time. Ryan Zimmerman is a lock at third base, and really the only sure thing this club has going into this season and the future. Between Zimmerman, Young, and Johnson, that doesn't leave much playing time for reserve infielder Aaron Boone. The catching situation could be interesting. Paul Lo Duca is entering his age 36 year, and the Mitchell Report revealed he had a drug ring that would have made Manuel Noriega jealous. If Johnny Estrada, or a non-roster invitee like Humberto Cota or Chad Moeller, can hit worth anything this year, they may be in for some good playing time.
Who is Shawn Hill, and why is he an opening day starter? Well, he did have an ERA under 4 last year, albeit in only 97 innings of work. Plus, John Patterson was limited to only 7 starts last year. This team needs arms and it needs them in a bad way. Maybe the Nats can get good innings out of closer Chad Cordero and bullpen mates Luis Ayala and Jon Rausch.

Florida Marlins

Baseball Musings Team Offense
Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Hanley Ramirez SS
Dan Uggla 2B
Jeremy Hermida RF
Josh Willingham LF
Mike Jacobs 1B
Cameron Maybin CF
Dallas McPherson/Jose Castillo/Jorge Cantu/Alfredo Amezaga 3B
Mike Rabelo/Matt Treanor C

Rotation
Scott Olsen
Sergio Mitre
Andrew Miller
Mark Hendrickson
Ricky Nolasco
Rick VandenHurk
Anibal Sanchez
Daniel Barone
Josh Johnson

Let's see - the team that finished last in the division in 2007 also traded away its best hitter and staff ace. There's not much room for optimism there... unless you're a fan of young up-and-comers. On the plus side, Hanley Ramirez is one of the best shortstops in baseball. The outfield has three exciting young players in Hermida, Willingham, and top prospect Cameron Maybin. That trio will be mentored by recent free agent signing Louis Gonzalez. Prospect Rabelo and established backup Treanor should share time at catcher, and that might turn into a decent platoon. The position battle to watch is at third, where former Pittsburgh second baseman Jose Castillo, disgruntled former Rays infielder Jorge Cantu, and utilityman Alfredo Amezaga will try to beat out injury-plagues former Angels top prospect Dallas McPherson for playing time.
The rotation features the talented but volatile Scott Olsen, journeyman Sergio Mitre, superprospect Andrew Miller from the Tigers organization, and a cast of thousands fighting for the last two spots. The new closer this year is Kevin Gregg, surely to be the token "we need to take someone from every team" all star pick, as Rays and Marlins closers often end up being. He'll be supported by Taylor Tankersly and FuneralOnABoat, Eugelio De La Cruz.

Laetare Sunday

For the third straight year, Kanka's Sports Page is proud to announce the recipient of the KankaNation Laetare Medal. The KankaNation Laetare goes to the KankaManiac "whose genius has ennobled the arts and sciences, illustrated the ideals of Kanka's Sports Page and enriched the heritage of humanity."

This year, the award goes to:

• a KankaManiac who has been there from the beginning


• a KankaNation Hall of Famer


• my Goddaughter


• and the woman who keeps them all in line.

That's right, this years recipients are

The Hatton Family

(Sorry Santa, that doesn't include you. Better luck next year.)


2007 recipients: Dave and Klondike
2006 recipient: Ellen


Epilogue
I was a Eucharistic Minister for this weekend's Saturday vigil mass. We had a visiting priest this week, and our normal priest left vestments out for him. The visiting priest and the other Eucharistic Minister - who has a Master's of Divinity - couldn't figure out why our pastor had chosen rose-colored vestments for this week. "Well," I asked, "isn't it Laetare Sunday?" Hey, the knowledge came in handy!