Sprite Slam Dunk Showdown Comes to Cleveland

Inspired by ifthisguycandunk.com, I've made it a goal to dunk a basketball by the time I turn 30. Of course, I still have another six inches to go to get rim, and the deadline is less than 15 months away. But if I do reach my goal, perhaps I can participate in a future version of this:

SPRITE AND THE NBA SEEKING THE BEST AMATEUR DUNKER IN CLEVELAND

Winner to receive $1,000 and a chance to compete for the Sprite Slam Dunk Showdown title during NBA All-Star Weekend 2011

WHAT: Sprite and the NBA are touring the country in search of the best amateur dunker with a creative spark, and Cleveland is the next stop in their quest. If last year’s competition is any indication, area dunkers will showcase some extremely impressive skills, including Tomahawks, Windmills, Alley Oops... and maybe even something no one has seen before.

The competition is open to all local dunkers ages 18 and up, and will be judged by a panel that includes NBA legend Darryl Dawkins and dunker Carlos "Los" Smothers, the runner–up in the 2010 Sprite Slam Dunk Showdown.

The first-place winner will receive $1,000 and a chance to compete for $10,000 and the title at the 2011 Sprite Slam Dunk Showdown held NBA All-Star Weekend in Los Angeles Feb. 18-20, 2011 and judged by LeBron James.

WHEN/WHERE:
Saturday, May 29
Time Warner Cable Amphitheater at Tower City During Marc’s Great Rib Cook-Off and Music Festival
Event begins at 4 p.m.
351 Canal Road
Cleveland, OH 44113
**The event is free and open to the public.

VISUALS/INTERVIEW OPPS:

• Cleveland’s best amateur dunkers displaying their impressive aerial skills


• Interviews with Dawkins and Smothers about the competition and the search for the best amateur dunker


• Reactions from local dunkers and fans in attendance

ADDITIONAL INFO: Cleveland is the fourth stop in the eight–city Sprite Slam Dunk Showdown tour. In addition to the national tour, contestants in the U.S., Canada and Mexico can submit videos of their best dunks to enter the competition. Videos featuring dunks from 10 semi-finalists (eight tour stop winners and two winning online entrants) will be featured at www.nba.com/dunk. Voters will then select the four finalists who will compete at the Sprite Slam Dunk Showdown competition, which will be held during NBA All-Star 2011 in Los Angeles. LeBron James will help select the online winners and serve as a judge in the final competition.

Cleveland Indians Monthly Statistical Analysis

A (hopefully) monthly look at the Tribe's performance from a variety of statistical angles. Suggestions for additional stats and categories are welcome - just let me know.

Overall

Pythagorean Record

One of the most popular judges of a team's performance is their Pythagorean record. "Pythag" is so named because the formula used looks similar to the Pythagorean formula used on right triangles.

Pythag uses runs scored and runs allowed to determine a predicted record. Generally, teams that overperform their Pythags are considered lucky and those that underperformed are considered unlucky. However, small ball teams like the Angels and Twins consistently overperform their Pythagorean records, for reasons saberists have trouble explaining.

Likewise, Eric Wedge's teams traditionally underperformed their Pythagorean record. That may be because those teams sprinkled 15-run wins between seven-game losing streaks. So, it will be interesting to see how Manny Acta's teams perform against Pythag.

So far, the Indians Pythagorean record (which can be found on MLB.com's standings page by turning on the "X W-L" category) is exactly the same as their actual record, 11-18.

Playoff Odds

Several sites offer odds of a team making the playoffs. One such site is CoolStandings.com, which currently has the Indians at a 1.4% chance to win the division and a 0.5% chance to win the wildcard.

Baseball Prospectus is a little more optimistic. Their projections, explained at the bottom of the linked page, have the Indians at 3% to win the division and 0.9% to win the wildcard.

"Wins in the Bank" and the Gambler's Fallacy

Several sites also post preseason standings projections. This is where the "gambler's fallacy" comes in. BaseballProjection.com has the Indians going 81-81 on the season, yet they have gone 11-18 so far.

Someone following the gambler's fallacy would think that the Tribe will go 70-63 the rest of the season to finish 81-81. In fact, Chone's projection should be thought of as a winning percentage, not a definite number of wins and losses.

That is, we should accept the fact that the Indians are 11-18, and assume they will play .500 ball (81 wins/162 games) the rest of the way. That means the Indians should expect to win 66-67 of their remaining 133 games

Pitching

BABIP

One of the most consistent statistics in baseball is a pitcher's batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The more a pitcher throws, the more his BABIP will settle in the .270-.290 range. This is true for nearly all pitchers, with only rare exceptions like knuckleballer Tim Wakefield and control specialist Greg Maddux.

That being said, if you see a pitcher with a high BABIP early in the season, you can expect that BABIP - and his overall performance - to improve. Conversely, pitchers with a low BABIP can expect an increase.

According to Fangraphs, David Huff, Jensen Lewis, and Aaron Laffey are already in the .270-.290 range. That's good news for all three, as they have pitched fairly well this season (outside of Huff's win-loss record) and should expect that performance to continue.

Cleveland's two best starters, Fausto Carmona and Mitch Talbot, have been beneficiaries of BABIPs in the .250s and can look forward to some minor regression. The same goes for relievers Chris Perez and Tony Sipp. Meanwhile, Joe Smith and Jamey Wright should see their already high ERAs rise with their BABIPs.

Meanwhile, Jake Westbrook and Justin Masterson should see their traditional numbers improve as their BABIPs decrease. As should Rafael Perez and Kerry Wood, which is good news for their respective ERAs. Hector Ambriz, pitching well by traditional measures, should only get better as his BABIP lowers. Not bad for a Rule V pickup.

Fielding Independent Pitching

While BABIP looks only at balls put into play, fielding independent pitching (FIP) does the opposite. FIP looks at walks, strikeouts, and home runs - the three things that are supposedly the pitcher's responsibility. In other words, FIP looks at those things that can't be affected by the quality of the defense.

FIP is calculated on the same scale as ERA, so the two can be compared easily. If a pitcher's FIP is lower than his ERA, he can expect improvement, and vice-versa. Of course the major caveat here is that if a pitcher plays with the same defense all year, how much can it really improve?

The bad news is that everyone except Jamey Wright, Justin Masterson, Rafael Perez, and Kerry Wood are posting FIPs lower than their ERAs. The even worse news is that Wright's FIP is only 0.40 points lower, and Wood's is based on only one inning of work.

Hitting

Lineup Analysis

BABIP can be used to study a hitter's luck. But unlike pitchers BABIP, hitter's BABIP normalizes to the hitter's past performance, not an overall league average. I'll leave that as an exercise to the reader.

Instead, for hitters we'll again refer to Dave Pinto's lineup analysis tool. Plugging in the top nine Indians in terms of OPS, here are the results. The lineup is certainly plausible in terms of defensive alignment and batting order, assuming Russell Branyan can still play some outfield.

This theoretical lineup would score 5.232 runs per game, much better than the 3.8 the team is currently scoring. That's an extra 232 runs for the year, or 23 wins. Of course, that's based on some small sample sizes, even for the regulars.

Sabermetric Bracketology: 2010 Post Mortem

Since I didn't get a chance to preview my brackets this year, here's a wrapup of how I did.

Straightforward Scoring: The "Pomeroy Bracket"

Again I used the Pomeroy Ratings for my straightforward bracket, and this year it was a success. Well, at least it was successful as getting three Elite 8 and one Final Four team can be, since that one Final Four team was Duke, who I also had winning the championship.

I can also thank Pomeroy for correctly putting Tennessee, Butler, and Xavier in the Sweet 16, and Baylor in the Elite 8. Outside of that, though, I mostly have to attribute my success to luck.

Upset Scoring: The Expected Value Method

I had one my upset scoring bracket two years in a row, but this year my luck ran out. And yes, it was luck, since part of my method involves picking which regionals to which I would apply my expected value methods (detailed here and here).

Those methods served me well in getting Cornell into the Sweet 16. But my major setback was a combination of bad luck and my own fault. My method calls plays the odds by putting all four number ones in the Final Four, and this year that wasn't a good strategy. On top of that, I decided to hedge my bets by picking Kansas over Kentucky in the finals, instead of relying on Pomeroy to have Duke as my champion again.

So, I finished in fourth, just out of medal contention. For next year, I'm going to study my previous brackets to see if it would have been better to use the expected value method on all four regionals, or whether I should continue to use "control" regionals. Stay tuned for those results.

Linkfest

• Tangotiger is crowdsourcing MLB playing time predictions, and he needs your help - especially if you're an Indians or Pirates fan. The survey ends Friday, so submit your projections today!


• Notre Dame will be competing in a 16-team rugby 7's tournament the weekend of June 5. Below is the press release from NBC.

  NEW YORK - Mar. 4, 2010 - The inaugural Rugby 7's Collegiate Championship, a USA Sevens event, will be broadcast on NBC Sports on Saturday and Sunday, June 5-6 from 4:30-6 p.m. ET. Universal Sports will provide extended coverage on Saturday and Sunday, June 5-6 from 2-4:30 p.m. ET.
  
  "Rugby Sevens is an exciting, fast-paced sport that is growing in global popularity, participation and interest," said NBC Sports executive vice president Jon Miller. "USA Sevens is the ideal partner for this event, which features the best collegiate rugby teams in the country."
  
  "The colleges are the future of rugby in the United States," said USA Sevens CEO Jon Prusmack. "Teaming with NBC Sports takes Rugby Sevens to the next level."
  
  The Rugby 7's Collegiate Championship, a round-robin tournament, begins on Friday, June 4 and concludes with the championship game on Sunday, June 6 at Columbus Crew Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. It features 16 collegiate teams with historic rugby programs, including Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida, Cal and Harvard. A complete list of teams will be announced at a later date.
  



• Finally, and most importantly, Mike Anello - my personal cheeseball and yours - is raising money for St. Baldrick's pediatric cancer fund. Check out Anello's new blog for details.

MLB Preview #6American League Central

Minnesota Twins

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Denard Span CF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Joe Mauer C
Justin Morneau 1B
Mike Cuddyer RF
Jim Thome DH/Delmon Young LF
Jason Kubel LF/DH
JJ Hardy SS
Nick Punto/Brendan Harris 3B

Rotation
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Carl Pavano
Nick Blackburn
Francisco Liriano
Brian Duensing

The Twins simultaneously upgraded at shortstop and center field by trading Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy. Denard Span's defense is arguably on par with Gomez', plus Span has a much better bat. The Twins will need all the range Span can give them if he's going to be sharing an outfield with Kubel and Cuddyer. Presumably, we'll see the Kubel/Thome combination against righties, and Young/Kubel or Young/Thome against lefties. Despite all their moves, including the addition of an increasingly league-average Orlando Hudson, the Twinkies still have a hole at third base. Whether that's filled by no-longer-a-prospect Brendan Harris or the good glove/no hit Nick Punto will probably depend on the matchup.

Jose Morales will be Joe Mauer's injury insurance this year, while Matt Tolbert will be waiting to take innings from Harris, Punto, and the other infielders.

Minnesota's pitching rotation has always been full of young talent, and this year is no different. However, for those who didn't pay attention to baseball for the past few years, it may come as a surprise that Scott Baker is the staff ace and Francisco Liriano is fighting to even make it into the rotation. The addition and retention of Carl Pavano will help this club's playoff run. Notre Dame product Jeff Manship will also try to work his way into the mix after making his Major League debut last year.

The Twins may have lost Joe Nathan for the season, but the bullpen has always been the Future Closers of America club. Veteran Jon Rauch will step in for the time being, but Minnesota may still look for a trade. Rauch will be supported by Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, and Jesse Crain.

Cleveland Indians

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Asdrubal Cabrera SS
Grady Sizemore CF
Shin-Soo Choo RF
Russell Branyan 1B
Travis Hafner DH
Jhonny Peralta 3B
Matt LaPorta LF
Lou Marson C
Luis Valbuena 2B

Rotation
Jake Westbrook
Fausto Carmona
Justin Masterson
Aaron Laffey
Mitch Talbot
David Huff

Even this optimistic Indians fan was surprised by CHONE's prediction of a second place finish for the Tribe. Still, they have the weapons to do it if everything comes together correctly. Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore are the stars, and the supporting cast is starting to come together nicely. Much was made of Sizemore's drop to the second spot in the lineup, but many projection systems say that's where a team's best hitter should hit. The decision will be much easier to swallow if Asdrubal Cabrera can again hit like he did last year. With Russell Branyan and Travis Hafner, the big issue as always will be health. Branyan has yet to play this spring, which could lead to Austin Kearns taking his spot on opening day. Meanwhile, Lou Marson will play the Josh Bard to Carlos Santana's Victor Martinez to start this season.

All signs point to the Indians keeping Michael Brantley in the minors to start the season, even with Branyan's injury. The idea is to delay Brantley's arbitration clock. It could mean that Trevor Crowe starts the season with the parent club, since he can back up all three outfield positions. Mike Redmond was added as a veteran presence not only for a young pitching staff, but also for a young catching unit. It looks like Redmond will be Fausto Carmona's personal catcher as the latter looks to get back on track. A number of players are fighting for the backup infield spot, including the infamous Andy Marte, new acquisition Anderson Hernandez, and non-roster invitee Mark Grudzielanek.

Only three spots are set in the starting rotation at this point. Jake Westbrook will pitch opening day, followed by Carmona, followed by Justin Masterson. The last two spots will go to two of Aaron Laffey, Mitch Talbot, and David Huff, with Talbot expected to win a place by default since he is out of options. But as on any rebuilding team, there will be plenty of pitchers earning starts on this team. Jeremy Sowers will fight injuries and ineffectiveness in what may be his last hurrah with the team, while Carlos Carrasco will try to prove he's had enough minor league seasoning to get the call.

Rumors that Kerry Wood would be traded to the Twins to replace Joe Nathan were quickly squashed when it was discovered that Wood himself would lose two months due to injuries. That just turns Chris Perez, Future Closer into Chris Perez, Current Closer. Perez will be aided by a number of pitchers looking to prove themselves after ineffective 2009 campaigns, including Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis. Rule V pickup Hector Ambriz will also try to contribute from the pen.

Chicago White Sox

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Juan Pierre LF
Gordon Beckham 2B
Carlos Quentin RF
Paul Konerko 1B
Alex Rios CF
Andruw Jones DH
AJ Pierzynski C
Alexei Ramirez SS
Mark Teahen 3B

Rotation
Mark Buehrle
Jake Peavy
Gavin Floyd
John Danks
Freddy Garcia
Dan Hudson

The White Sox started with a good concept: a young core of Beckham, Quentin, and Ramirez complemented by veterans Konerko and Pierzynski. But the additions of Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, and Mark Teahen were questionable at best. (I'll let the reader decide where Alex Rios falls in this equation.)

Chicago's reputation as an aging team was reversed somewhat by the loss of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye. However, all credit gained in those moves was lost in the acquisitions of Omar Vizquel, Mark Kotsay, and Ramon Castro to man the bench.

CHONE has four White Sox starters - Buehrle, Peavy, Floyd, and Danks - posting 3.5 WAR seasons. That depth is matched by few teams in this league, if any. The only question is the fifth spot, which will either go to journeyman Freddy Garcia or youngster Dan Hudson.

Since it became a regular division contender in the 2000s, Chicago has always had a steady bullpen. Former Seattle closer JJ Putz will now be setting up Bobby Jenks. The duo will be joined by Matt Thornton and Scott Linebrink.

Detroit Tigers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Johnny Damon LF
Carlos Guillen DH
Magglio Ordonez RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Brandon Inge 3B
Gerald Laird C
Scott Sizemore 2B
Adam Everett SS
Austin Jackson CF

Rotation
Justin Verlander
Rick Porcello
Jeremy Bonderman
Max Scherzer
Eddie Bonine
Nate Robertson
Dontrelle Willis

Are the Tigers rebuilding, or aren't they? By letting go of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco in favor of calling up Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore (in addition to trading Edwin Jackson for Max Scherzer), it seems Detroit is favoring the future over the present. Why then sign Johnny Damon. Regardless of how you slice it, this is a batting order whose offense falls off sharply after the top five. Sure Detroit will have a solid defense with Laird, Everett, Inge, and now Damon, but will they hit well enough to match it?

On the bench, Ramon Santiago is back once again as the Tigers utility infielder. Clete Thomas and Ryan Raburn will fight for a backup role in the outfield, although both could see decent playing time if age catches up to Ordonez and Damon, or lack of experience catches up to Jackson.

There's Verlander, and then there's everyone else. Handing Rick Porcello the second spot in the rotation is risky, especially since the 21-year-old is due for some regression after an impressive 2009. Jeremy Bonderman and Max Scherzer have locked up rotation spots, although there's some question as to whether the latter is ready yet to be a starter. The fifth spot is still open, although recent indications give the job to Nate Robertson over Bonine or Willis.

The Tigers went outside of the organization to pick up closer Jose Valverde. He'll be set up by Joel Zumaya, Bobby Seay, Zach Miner, and former Yankee Phil Coke. Daniel Schlereth, a top prospect and son of the ESPN football commentator, will also try to win a spot in the bullpen.

Kansas City Royals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Scott Podsednik LF
David DeJesus RF
Rick Ankiel CF
Jose Guillen DH
Billy Butler 1B
Alberto Callaspo/Chris Getz 2B
Alex Gordon 3B
Jason Kendall C
Yuniesky Betancourt SS

Rotation
Zack Greinke
Gil Meche
Luke Hochevar
Kyle Davies
Brian Bannister
Robinson Tejada

The Royals claim to preach getting on base. But then they surround their homegrown talent with signings like Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, and Yuneski Betancourt. Even Rick Ankiel isn't the hitter he once was. Go figure, then, that David DeJesus, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon are the only players CHONE predicts to play above replacent level this year.

As with most mediocre teams, the Royals have a number of so-so players fighting it out for bench spots. Mike Aviles, Mitch Maier, super-utilityman Willie Bloomquist, and White Sox castoffs Josh Fields and Brian Anderson all look to make the club this year.

In 2009, Zack Greinke had a legitimate argument for league MVP. This year, he'll look to make another run at the trophy that has traditionally gone to position players. Supporting him are decent starters in Meche, Hochevar, and Bannister, and passible candidates in Davies and Tejada.

Rule V pickup Joakim Soria surpassed everyone's expectations. But for every Soria there are dozens of Kyle Farnsworths, Juan Cruzes, and Anthony Lerews - players moved to relief because they could never live up to the hype.

MLB Preview #5National League Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Skip Schumaker 2B
Colby Rasmus CF
Albert Pujols 1B
Matt Holliday LF
Ryan Ludwick RF
Yadier Molina C
David Freese 3B
Brendan Ryan SS

Rotation
Adam Wainwright
Chris Carpenter
Kyle Lohse
Brad Penny
Kyle McClellan

One all world player (Pujols), one All Star (Holliday), one above average hitter (Ludwick), and average production from the rest of the lineup. That's the recipe for a division championship.

Predictably, Tony Larussa has stocked his bench with veterans, in this case Jason LaRue at catcher and Felipe Lopez and Julio Lugo in the infield. There's not much depth in the outfield, although presumably Skip Schumaker can move back there while Lopez or Lugo mans the keystone sack. Lopez and Lugo can become key pieces of this team, with the relative inexperience of all Cardinals infielders not named Albert Pujols. Also of note is that BaseballProjection.com did include Mark McGwire in their prognostication. The 46-year-old "DH" is predicted to have 20 home runs and 155 strike outs in 300+ at bats.

The St. Louis rotation mirrors its lineup in that there are a few stars (2009 Cy Young contenders Wainwright and Carpenter) with average to above average support.

Closer Ryan Franklin may not repeat the breakout success. But if there's one place this club has outstanding depth, it's in the bullpen. (Remember that this club could afford to trade two future closers for half a season's worth of Mark DeRosa.) Franklin will be aided by Jason Motte, Dennys Reyes, and whichever young arms fail to capture the last spot in the rotation.

Milwaukee Brewers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rickie Weeks 2B
Corey Hart RF
Ryan Braun LF
Prince Fielder 1B
Casey McGehee 3B
Greg Zaun C
Carlos Gomez CF
Alcides Escobar SS

Rotation
Yovani Gallardo
Randy Wolf
Doug Davis
Jeff Suppan
Manny Parra
David Bush

By trading JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez, the Brewers essentially gave away one good bat for two good gloves. In getting Gomez, the Brewers got a player whose defense is comparable to the man he replaces, Mike Cameron. However, Gomez' bat still needs his work. (Based on current skill, the Twins were wise to give him up and keep Denard Span.) But by getting rid of Hardy, Milwaukee was also able to move Alcides Escobar's glove into the starting lineup. Now they must hope that Corey Hart, Ryan Braun, and Prince Fielder (and eventually Mat Gamel, when he replaces McGehee) can hit enough to balance the offense and defense.

The Brewers bench features three of my personal cheeseballs, infielders Craig Counsell and Joe Inglett, and outfielder Jody Gerut.

In the starting rotation, rising star Yovani Gallardo will be supported by a number of National League veterans. As always, the Brewers may need to add another starting pitcher or two if they want to make the playoffs.

The Brewers bullpen is a good mix of young and veteran talent. Trevor Hoffman is back as the team's closer, supported by LaTroy Hawkins, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and David Riske. Also looking to make the team after a cup of coffee last year is John Axford. Axford started his college career at Notre Dame before graduating from Canisius. (Man does this club like to stock up on former Irish, Indians, and Twins players or what?)

Chicago Cubs

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Alfonso Soriano LF
Ryan Theriot SS
Derrek Lee 1B
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Geovany Soto C
Marlon Byrd CF
Kosuke Fukudome RF
Mike Fontenot 2B

Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wells
Tom Gorzelanny
Jeff Samardzija
Carlos Silva

Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovany Soto are a good core to build around, but the rest of the pieces just aren't there. Marlon Byrd was a solid pickup, but he's no Matt Holliday. How long can the Cubs wait before they blow things up and start again with Starlin Castro and his contemporaries?

Like Byrd, Xavier Nady was a solid outfield pickup, and he'll likely platoon with Fukudome in the outfield. Returning for the Cubbies are Koyie Hill, Micah Hoffpauir, Jeff Baker, and Andres Blanco.

Chicago's rotation is in very good shape, at least, headlined by Zambrano, Lilly, and Dempster. Wells and Gorzelanny were two more good acquisitions, the latter yet another Pirates pitcher who struggled as a erstwhile ace but who should do quite well in the back of the rotation where he belongs. Jeff Samardzija does have a chance at a rotation spot at some point this season, but if he loses out to Carlos Silva at this point, The Shark should probably consider a return to the gridiron.

Carlos Marmol has settled in as the Cubs closer, despite lingering questions about his control. Marmol will be aided by John Grabow, Sean Marshall, Justin Berg, and whichever starters listed above do not make the rotation.

Cincinnati Reds

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Drew Stubbs CF
Orlando Cabrera SS
Joey Votto 1B
Brandon Phillips 2B
Scott Rolen 3B
Jay Bruce RF
Chris Dickerson/Jonny Gomes LF
Ramon Hernandez C

Rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey
Aroldis Chapman
Justin Lehr
Matt Maloney
Edinson Volquez

Cincinnati made some "win now" moves in acquiring Orlando Cabrera and Scott Rolen, despite the fact that they weren't that close to being contenders before the moves were made. Regardless, the Reds have managed to upgrade both their offense and defense in the process. The Reds defense was also improved by naming Drew Stubbs the starting center fielder. Not only is Stubbs a stud center fielder, but he also assures that Jay Bruce stays in right field, where he will be more of a defensive asset. In left, Cincinnati can play Chris Dickerson for defense and Jonny Gomes for offense when need be. Oh, and speaking of studs, Joey Votto is a machine at the plate.

Veteran Aaron Miles will be the utility infielder, although expect to see some time from Paul Janish as well. After a brief but impressive stint at shortstop in 2009, Janish expected to have the starting job locked up this year - until the Reds acquired Cabrera. So Janish may be playing with something to prove. Also playing with something to prove are Wladimir Balentien and Laynce Nix, who are fighting for the fourth outfielder spot. Balentien is no longer a top prospect, and now he must prove that he's not Cincinnati's next Wily Mo Pena.

Cincinnati's pitching rotation may not have any great starters, but it does have quite a few very good ones. The team will receive a much-needed shot in the arm when Edinson Volquez returns from his injury and Aroldis Chapman is ready for the majors. Until then, Huron High School product Matt Maloney will fight for one of the last rotation spots.

In the bullpen, Francisco Cordero will be supported by veterans Mike Lincoln and Arthur Rhodes, and hitting sensation Micah Owings.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Andrew McCutchen CF
Akinori Iwamura 2B
Garret Jones RF
Jeff Clement 1B
Ryan Doumit C
Andy LaRoche 3B
Lastings Milledge LF
Ronny Cedeno SS

Rotation
Paul Maholm
Zach Duke
Russ Ohlendorf
Charlie Morton
Kevin Hart

It will be a long, slow, process rebuilding the Pirates, but things are starting to move in the right direction. The additions made in the past few months - Iwamura, Clement, Milledge, Cedeno - were minor but positive. That wasn't always a given for the Pirates in the past. The biggest move may have been to name Andrew McCutchen a starter; the center fielder is due for a breakout this year.

The bench is made of young-ish veterans who struggled as starters, but who should do just fine in replacement roles. That list includes Brandon Moss and Ryan Church in the outfield and Bobby Crosby in the infield. Of course, the interesting thing will be to see how long the Pirates can keep top prospects Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez off the field.

As mentioned above, the Pirates rotation is normally staffed with players more comfortable as fourth or fifth starters. But players like Paul Maholm and Charlie Morton will try to be the exception to the rule this year.

Like his mentor Mark Shapiro, it appears that Pirates GM Neal Huntington isn't quite sure how to put together a bullpen. Instead of relying on the arms already in the system, Huntington went out to acquire Octavio Dotel, Joel Hanrahan, DJ Carrasco, and Frontier League veteran Brendan Donnelly.

Houston Astros

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Michael Bourn CF
Kaz Matsui 2B
Lance Berkman 1B
Carlos Lee LF
Hunter Pence RF
Pedro Feliz 3B
JR Towles C
Tommy Manzella SS

Rotation
Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriguez
Bud Norris
Brett Myers
Felipe Paulino
Brian Moehler

Call the Astros the "Cardinals Lite." Like St. Louis, Houston is a team based on a few stars surrounded by role players, as opposed to a balanced set. But Houston's stars and role players just don't match up with the Cards'. Adding someone just because they were a World Champion (Feliz) doesn't help when he was one of the weaker starters. The position to watch here is the starting catcher spot. Will it go to JR Towles, the top prospect from a few years ago, or Juan Castro, the top prospect of the future?

Coming off the bench to man all three outfield spots will be Jason Michaels. On the infield, Geoff Blum and Jeff Keppinger will fight over playing time and the correct spelling of their first name. Keppinger can see increased playing time in the middle of the diamond if either Manzella or Matsui falter.

At least the Astros have two legit aces to ride in Oswalt and Rodriguez. But whose idea was it to put Randy Wells, Randy Wolf, and Brett Myers in the same division? For whatever reason, I always get those three guys confused.

Complementing the Oswalt-Rodriguez one-two punch is the one-two bullpen punch of closers Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom.

Laetare Sunday

For the fourth straight year, Kanka's Sports Page is proud to announce the recipient of the KankaNation Laetare Medal. The KankaNation Laetare goes to the KankaManiac "whose genius has ennobled the arts and sciences, illustrated the ideals of Kanka's Sports Page and enriched the heritage of humanity."

This year, the award goes to...



Pete, for a number of reasons, but I'll save most of those for the Fifer he'll be getting later this year. Speaking of bachelor parties, though, the main reason Pete wins the Laetare is because he served as designated puker for the above three grooms-to-be this past year. That man does love his scotch, even if his stomach doesn't.

MLB Preview #4American League East

New York Yankees

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Nick Johnson DH
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Randy Winn/Brett Gardner LF

Rotation
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes


This is what luxury can afford you: a team that can outhit the disadvantages of batting Nick Johnson too high in the lineup and Nick Swisher too low, or putting Curtis Granderson in center instead of Brett Gardner, or playing Randy Winn over Gardner, or any other perceived slights this starting lineup has.

As has been the issue for several years now, the Yankees do not have much depth among their position players. This could be a major issue considering the injury history of Nick Johnson and the age of Jeter, Rodriguez, Posada, and Winn. Francisco Cervelli is back as the second-string catcher, but he's only keeping the position warm for Jesus Montero... assuming the later can stick behind the plate, which would come as a surprise to many scouts. Also expected to win bench roles are infielder Ramiro Pena and outfielder Greg Golson.

A great rotation only got better with the addition of Javier Vazquez, whose sabermetric stats made him a Cy Young contender in 2009. Of course, Vazquez struggled in his first stint in the Bronx, so only time will tell how he fares in his second.

A return to the bullpen for Joba Chamberlain should help shore up a somewhat shaky relief corps and help bridge the gap to the ageless Mariano Rivera.

Boston Red Sox

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jacoby Ellsbury LF
Dustin Pedroia 2B
Victor Martinez C
Kevin Youkilis 1B
David Ortiz DH
Adrian Beltre 3B
JD Drew RF
Mike Cameron CF
Marco Scutaro SS

Rotation
Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Clay Buchholz
Tim Wakefield

Now this is a batting order. Sure, Beltre, Drew, and Cameron will probably draw ire in New England for a perceived lack of production. But sane fans will recognize their value, especially coming out of the bottom of the lineup. Yes, Marco Scutaro will regress, but he will still be a useful hitter. Conversely, don't be surprised if David Ortiz regresses in a positive direction.

Mike Lowell, Jed Lowrie, and Bill Hall will fight for spots as backup infielders, while Jason Varitek will once again don the tools of ignorance. (Hey, someone has to catch Tim Wakefield). In the outfield, former Marlins starter Jeremy Hermida will look to take a backup role. Hermida could see increased playing time if Cameron gets hurt, when Drew gets hurt, or if Ellsbury gets traded.

The Red Sox have been exceptionally deep at starting pitching recently, and this year is no different. Like their division rivals, Boston also managed to shore up the middle of their rotation with another team's ace. For the Sox, it's former workhorse John Lackey.

Jonathan Papelbon may no longer be unhittable, but he's still one of the best closers in the game. Boston's pitching depth also extends to the bullpen, which again features Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez, and Daniel Bard.

Tampa Bay Rays

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
BJ Upton CF
Carl Crawford LF
Evan Longoria 3B
Carlos Pena 1B
Pat Burrell DH
Ben Zobrist 2B
Matt Joyce RF
Dioner Navarro C
Jason Bartlett SS

Rotation
Jamie Shields
Matt Garza
Jeff Niemman
David Price
Wade Davis

As most Tampa Bay fans will tell you, this is a team would definitely win any of the other five divisions in baseball. Still, it's nothing to be ashamed of. BJ Upton and Pat Burrell are due for bounceback years, and that will certainly help offset any regression Ben Zobrist (and Carlos Pena) have. Matt Joyce should finally start to show that the Rays got the better end of the Edwin Jackson trade from two years ago.

Tampa Bay's big offseason acquisition was Kelly Shoppach. Shoppach, a streaky hitter in his own right, will backup the equally streaky Dioner Navarro. Basically, they're each other's insurance. Willy Aybar will serve as the utility infielder, while Gabe Kapler will return to that same role in the outfield. Meanwhile, shortstop Reid Brignac and center fielder Desmond Jennings are each only a trade away from being able to showcase their tools in the majors.

The Rays have relied on a dearth of starting pitchers to restock other positions via trades. One can only wonder if that surplus is close to running out, though. Fortunately, Tampa Bay has seemed to settle on a rotation it can trust in Shields, Garza, Niemman, Price, and Davis.

Rafael Soriano has been added as the Rays closer, which helps the former closers-by-committee settle into more traditional bullpen roles. Randy Choate, Grant Balfour, and Lance Cormier will be joined by former starter and Barberton native Andy Sonnanstine in relief.

Baltimore Orioles

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Brian Roberts2B
Adam Jones CF
Nick Markakis RF
Miguel Tejada 3B
Matt Wieters C
Luke Scott DH
Garrett Atkins 1B
Nolan Reimold LF
Cesar Izturis SS

Rotation
Kevin Millwood
Jeremy Guthrie
Brian Matusz
Chris Tillman
Brad Bergesen
David Hernandez
Jason Berken

The Orioles hitters can go either way this year. It can be a great year if Brian Roberts returns from his injury. If Adam Jones and Nick Markakis continue their rise to startdom. If Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins can his like they did a few years ago. If Matt Wieters has already reached a level that matches his hype. But if even a few of those "ifs" falter, it could be another long summer in Baltimore.

On the bench, Robert Andino and the ageless Ty Wigginton will serve as backup infielders. Unless, of course, Indians castoff Michael Aubrey somehow beats out Wigginton (or even Atkins) this spring. In the outfield, Felix Pie is slated to back up all three positions. Of course, Wigginton and Luke Scott can still play out there as well.

Since trading Erik Bedard, this team has sorely lacked an ace. Kevin Millwood may not be an ace in the true sense, bu t he is a veteran presence and an innings-eater that will help this young staff, especially top prospects Matusz and Tillman.

After years of producing closers in the right field warehouse, the Orioles went out and bought an already-made model. Mike Gonzalez comes over from the Braves and will be helped by Cla Meredith and Koji Uehara.

Toronto Blue Jays

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Aaron Hill 2B
Alex Gonzalez SS
Adam Lind LF/DH
Vernon Wells CF
Lyle Overbay 1B
Travis Snider RF/LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Randy Ruiz DH/Jose Bautista RF
John Buck C

Rotation
Ricky Romero
Shaun Marcum
Brandon Morrow
Brett Cecil
Marc Rzepczynski
David Purcey
Dustin McGowan

Rebuilding the Blue Jays is a long, slow process, which makes the acquisitions of players like Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, and John Buck all the more confusing. The good news, if any, is that Travis Snider and Adam Lind should finally get as many at bats as possible.

The addition of Gonzalez means that once again John McDonald will be limited to a super utility role. Outfield playing time will be split among the names listed above, while Jose Molina will try to stick as the team's backup catcher. It will be interesting to see how soon Brett Wallace makes an appearance at the Rogers Centre. But what is more interesting is that the Blue Jays acquired Wallace in the first place. Sure he can hit, but he is a first base/DH type in an organization already overloaded at the position. On top of that, the Jays appear to be thin in the outfield, yet they traded Michael Taylor (acquired in the Halladay trade) to get Wallace.

Of course, the glaring loss of Roy Halladay hurts this rotation. But, this team is returning much of the same staff that was lights out in 2008, so perhaps not all hope is lost. Plus, they did acquire Kyle Drabek (after the Phillies reportedly wouldn't give him up for Cliff Lee) and Brandon Morrow.

In another interesting move, the Blue Jays went out and signed veteran closer Kevin Gregg. Gregg will be supported by the usual suspects in Toronto - Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Shawn Camp, and Jeremy Accardo.

MLB Preview #3National League East

Atlanta Braves

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Nate McClouth CF
Melky Cabrera LF
Martin Prado 2B
Chipper Jones 3B
Troy Glaus 1B
Brian McCann C
Yunel Escobar SS
Matt Diaz RF

Rotation
Derek Lowe
Jair Jurrjens
Tommy Hanson
Tim Hudson
Kenshin Kawakami

The Braves may not have any Mark Teixeira-level superstars anymore. But what they do have is a lineup with above-average players at every single position. That's certainly nothing to be ashamed of, and it's part of the reason why CHONE has Atlanta unseating Philadelphia in the NL East. Everyone on the infield can flat-out rake the ball, and Escobar is one of the game's most underrated defenders at shortstop. The outfield isn't too bad either.

Speaking of the outfield, that's where the true depth on this team lies. Looking to make the roster are veteran Eric Hinske and a youth movement in Gregor Blanco and Jordan Schafer. Of course, none of those outfielders' jobs are safe once top prospect Jayson Heyward is ready for the bigs.

Or perhaps Atlanta's depth lies in its starting rotation. Who else can trade away a Cy Young Candidate in Javier Vazquez and still march out a starting rotation that's expected to be 12.6 wins above replacement? Jurrjens, Hanson, Schafer, and Heyward are the youth movement that will start the Braves next run of playoff appearances.

The only question on this team is the bullpen. Do closer Billy Wagner and setup man Takashi Saito have anything left in the tank? Can former starters Kris Medlen and Jo-Jo Reyes and a group of no-names bridge the gap between those talented starters and the veteran finishers?

Philadelphia Phillies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Placido Polanco 3B
Carlos Ruiz C

Rotation
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
Joe Blanton
JA Happ
Jamie Moyer
Antonio Bastardo
Kyle Kendrick

The Phillies lineup is in stark contrast with the Braves. Whereas Atlanta is a decent from top to bottom, Philadelphia features one superstar (Chase Utley), two stars (Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth), and a supporting cast of so-so players.

The Phillies bench features a number of National League veterans in Brian Schneider, Juan Castro, Greg Dobbs, and Ross Gload, as well as outfielders Ben Francisco and John Mayberry.

Of course, who needs a stacked batting lineup when you have Roy Halladay and a very good starting cast? The Phillies rotation may be a little top-heavy, but as soon as a fifth starter settles in, this team will be set.

Brad Lidge once again leads a bullpen that was disappointing at best in 2009. But all the regulars are back - Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Chad Durbin - with the addition of Danys Baez.

New York Mets

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Jose Reyes SS
Luis Castillo 2B
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Jason Bay LF
Daniel Murphy 1B
Jeff Francouer RF
Rod Barajas/Omir Santos C

Rotation
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Jon Niese
Fernando Nieve

The core of Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran is still intact. But the supporting players aren't quite as good as they once were. Sure, Jason Bay can hit, but can he hit - and field - in a larger outfield? Will Daniel Murphy and Jeff Francouer finally blossom, or continue to struggle? Who is waiting in the wings to help?

The Mets bench features a laundry list of backup catchers, including Henry Blanco and Chris Coste. On the infield there's Alex Cora, Anderson Hernandez, and the ageless Fernando Tatis. New to the outfield is Gary Matthews, whose ego has lived up to his big contract (he wants to start and bat leadoff), but whose talent hasn't.

The rotation is a bright spot for the Mets, with Pelfrey, Maine, and Niese all on the right side of 30, and Santana due for a bounceback season. Playing in a pitcher's park doesn't hurt, either.

In the bullpen, Francisco Rodriguez is back and will be supported by veterans Kelvim Escobar, Pedro Feliciano, and Nelson Figueroa.

Florida Marlins

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Chris Coghlan LF
Cameron Maybin CF
Hanley Ramirez SS
Jorge Cantu 3B
Dan Uggla 2B
Gaby Sanchez 1B
Cody Ross RF
John Baker C

Rotation
Josh Johnson
Ricky Nolasco
Anibal Sanchez
Sean West
Chris Volstad
Rick VandenHurk
Andrew Miller

Hanlery Ramirez is still a star, and his glove is respectable enough to keep him at short. Dan Uggla is a proven commodity. Chris Coghlan is a rising start with the bat, and now he only needs to find a position. In Cameron Maybin, the Miguel Cabrera trade is finally starting to pay off. Maybin was always a plus defender, and now his bat is starting to come around as well.

Supersubs Emilio Bonifacio and Wes Helms highlight a bench that sees catcher Ronny Paulino settle into a backup role.

Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco broke out last year, but they'll need help this year. What the Florida rotation lacks in quality, it makes up for in quantity. It may be a case of riding the hot hands, as they did quite successfully last year.

Leo Nunez enters his second season as the Marlins closer. He'll be joined in the bullpen by Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, Hayden Penn, and Taylor Tankersly - four prospects whose careers plateaued after promising starts.

Washington Nationals

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Christian Guzman SS
Ivan Rodriguez C
Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Adam Dunn 1B
Elijah Dukes RF
Josh Willingham LF
Adam Kennedy 2B
Nyjer Morgan CF

Rotation
Jason Marquis
John Lannan
Scott Olsen
Garrett Mock
Craig Stammen
JD Martin

Slowly but surely, the Nats are improving. The main problem with their lineup is that they have a number of guys (Guzman, Rodriguez, Kennedy, and Morgan) who could bat in the one and two spots, but probably shouldn't. It will be interesting to see how that shakes down. Morgan's speed helps make him a great defensive player, but it doesn't make him a leadoff hitter. Guzman, Rodriguez, and Kennedy may be known for their contact skills, but don't undervalue the ability to actually get on base. The middle of the lineup shouldn't have any issues, though. Zimmerman and Dunn will continue to hit well. Dukes and Willingham have enjoyed the change of scenery so far, and they both should continue to improve.

The Washington bench features catchers Wil Nieves and Jesus Flores, former Seattle prospect Mike Morse, and ageless utilityman Willie Harris. Top position prospect Ian Desmon will try to break camp in a utility role after an impressive 2009 debut.

Like the Marlins, the Nationals rotation is one of quantity over quality. When Chien-Ming Wang, Jordann Zimmermann, and Stephen Strasburg are ready to join the discussion, that will certainly help Washington's case.

Matt Capps has made a career out of closing for bad teams. He'll be aided by the likes of former Yankees Brian Bruney and Tyler Clippard.

The Notre Dame Fan's Book of Life Lessons

Just received this press release about a new (and apparently self-published) ND book. Check it out.

In his new book, P.J. Whitfield, a South Bend native and now a journalist in Los Angeles, captures the magic and life lessons of Notre Dame football. On each page, "The Notre Dame Fan's Book of Life Lessons" zeroes in on one moment in Irish football history. Whitfield's original statistical research leads to fresh insights. This little book tackles some big and little issues:

What Brian Kelly brings to Notre Dame that only Frank Leahy surpassed.
The Notre Dame coach who faced top-20 teams more often than any other Fighting Irish coach.
The team that almost lost to the Old Timers in the spring exhibition, then made a run at perfection.
The N.D. player who stood up to a racist and won.
The small kid a newspaper said would "get killed at Notre Dame" but he proved otherwise.
Five vital keys to every N.D. national championship.

Whitfield grew up in South Bend, Indiana. As a kid, he bummed tickets to see N.D. games. His previous work includes, "The White Sox Fan's Little Book of Wisdom." That book was published in November 2004, just before the ChiSox won it all. May he bring as much luck to the Irish.

"The Notre Dame Fan's Book of Life Lessons" will be available at Amazon.com in six to eight weeks. It currently can be ordered direct from Lulu.com: http://www.lulu.com/product/paperback/the-notre-dame-fans-book-of-life-lessons/6389694?productTrackingContext=center_search_results

MLB Previews #2 American League West

Texas Rangers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ian Kinsler 2B
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton LF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz RF
Chris Davis 1B
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Elvis Andrus SS
Julio Borbon CF

Rotation
Rich Harden
Scott Feldman
Colby Lewis
Derek Holland
Brandon McCarthy
Tommy Hunter
Matt Harrison
Dustin Nippert
Doug Mathis
Neftali Feliz

In essence, he who owns Vald Guerrero owns the AL West. After a surprising run to 87 wins last year, the Rangers are a trendy pick to unseat the Angels in 2010. This team can no doubt hit, and if Guerrero can stay healthy he'll add to Arlington's trademark offense. If Julio Borbon can maintain his OBP over the course of a full season, they'll have a great leadoff hitter to complement the power in the rest of the lineup.

The Rangers are still stacked at catcher, with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez backing up Saltalamacchia. None of those three may reach the ceiling they were once thought to have, but together they're still a respectable MLB-caliber unit. Speaking of players who never lived up to their ceiling, NCAA hit king Khalil Greene joins the team
as a utility infielder. One player who hopes to avoid the "bust" tag is future first baseman Justin Smoak, who's just the tip of the iceberg for one of the best minor league systems in baseball today.

Rich Harden is always a great pickup if he can stay healthy, but that's a big if. Fortunately, a pair of no-names in Scott Feldman and Colby Lewis are expected to put up solid numbers this year. Oh, and there's also that Neftali Feliz guy, who was lights-out in the bullpen last year and is the Rangers ace-in-training.

Frank Francisco, a longtime Rangers setup man who became their closer last year, returns to the stopper role. He'll be supported by a number of bullpen mainstays, including Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Willie Eyre and former Orioles closer Chris Ray.

Los Angeles Angels

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Howie Kendrick 2B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Kendry Morales 1B
Juan Rivera LF
Hideki Matsui DH
Mike Napoli C
Brandon Wood 3B
Erick Aybar SS

Rotation
Ervin Santana
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
Scott Kazmir
Joel Piniero
Matt Palmer
Sean O'Sullivan
Trevor Bell
Anthony Ortega

Honestly, I'm not sure who the Angels leadoff hitter will be. Abreu is probably idea for that spot, but he's shied away from it in the past in favor of being a run producer. The trade of Chone Figgins is great news for Brandon Wood, who finally gets a starting spot after being blocked by Erick Aybar and others at short for many years. The addition of Hideki Matsui is great for the batting order, but perhaps not so much for the defensive lineup, since neither he nor Juan Rivera should be playing much outfield at all these days.

Fortunately, the Angels have never been short on utility outfielders. Reggie Willits is still with the club, and should see decent playing time as a defensive replacement, and when the aging outfielders need a day off. Macier Izturis is putting together a respectable career as a utility infielder, and he too should see good playing time if one of the starters should happen to falter.

If anything gets the Angels to the division crown again this year, it's their rotation. After a few rough patches, Ervin Santana and Jeff Weaver have settled down as reliable starters. Joe Saunders and Joel Piniero are workhorses. And former ace Scott Kazmir could be a steal. Not many teams can boast this much quality from all five spots in their rotation.

Of course, bullpen strength has also been a trademark of the Angels in the 2000s. Brian Fuentes returns as the team's closer, aided by ageless wonders Scot Shields and Rudy Seanez. Fireballer Fernando Rodney also gives the team a new, intriguing weapon out of the pen.

Oakland Athletics

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Coco Crisp CF
Rajai Davis LF
Jack Cust DH
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Kurt Suzuki C
Ryan Sweeney RF
Daric Barton 1B
Mark Ellis 2B
Cliff Pennington SS

Rotation
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Ben Sheets
Justin Ducherer
Vin Mazzaro
Dallas Braden
Gio Gonzalez
Josh Outman
Clayton Mortensen

Speed and defense are the new market inefficiency. The A's got both in new centerfielder Coco Crisp. Kevin Kouzmanoff highlights a laundry list of never-has-beens trying to win the third base job. He'll be competing with Jake Fox and Dallas McPherson to take over Eric Chavez's job. (Chavez, of course, fell a little short of his own potential thanks to injuries.)

In addition to the third basemen-a-plenty, Oakland's bench also features journeyman outfielder Gabe Gross.

Like its across-the-bay counterparts, the A's will look for their young, talented pitching staff to carry a questionable offense. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are two of the best up-and-coming arms in the game. They'll be joined by Ben Sheets, who went from a perennial Cy Young candidate to a forgotten man after he lost all of 2009 with an injury. Among those fighting for the last few spots in the rotation is be-stirruped wonder Josh Outman.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland's token All Star from last year, returns as the closer. He'll be joined by talented setup men Brad Ziegler and Mike Wuertz, as well as Indians castoffs Craig Breslow and Jon Meloan.

Seattle Mariners

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ichiro Suzuki RF
Chone Figgins 3B
Milton Bradley LF
Ken Griffey, Jr DH
Jose Lopez 2B
Casey Kotchman 1B
Rob Johnson C
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Jack Wilson SS

Rotation
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
Doug Fister
Luke French
Jason Vargas
Anthony Varvaro
Edward Paredes
Ryan Feierabend
Garrett Olson

Regression is a cruel mistress. Seattle, the sabermetric darlings, won 85 games last year. They then made some major upgrades. And yet it looks like they'll struggle to top .500 this year. If they do finish with a losing record, it won't be because of the bat of Milton Bradley (assuming he stays healthy and calm), the gloves of Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, or the all-around play of Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins. It's up to the rest of the lineup to come through for the Mariners.

Seattle's bench features backup outfielders Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans. Both should be ready to serve as defensive replacements for Bradley, and as injury replacements when Bradley and Griffey go down. Ryan Garko could also see some time at DH if Griffey struggles, or at first base if Kotchman has trouble handling lefties. Waiting in the wings - and waiting to find a position - is top prospect Dustin Ackley. But perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself, since Ackley is at least a year away from the bigs.

Seattle may now have the best left-right/one-two punch in the majors. If Erik Bedard can return to a level anywhere near his success with the Orioles, this team won't even need to hit to win games. But even if Bedard can't, this is still a very good rotation from top-to-bottom, with Rowland-Smith and a rejuvenated Ian Snell taking the last two spots. There's also plenty of depth, especially with Lorain County native Ryan Feierabend once again waiting in the wings after missing all of 2009 with an injury.

The old joke is that David Aardsma is ahead of Hank Aaron in the record books... alphabetically. Aardsma is also Seattle's closer. He'll be joined in the bullpen by swingman Brandon Morrow and a largely untested group of relievers.

Cleveland Indians: CHONE's WAR Gives Hope for a Winning Season

The Cleveland Indians may be rebuilding again, but it's hard not to be optimistic when CHONE predicts the team to win at least 81 games and finish second in the division.

Let's take a closer look at those projections, using WAR - Wins Above Replacement.

For those unfamiliar with the stat, WAR compares a given player to a replacement player - basically, any random guy you'd pull out of AAA. WAR is nice because it takes into account defense and position difficulty (it's harder to play shortstop than left field) in addition to offense.

It's said that a team of nothing but replacement players will win 47 games. So let's start with that as our baseline.

First, we'll look at the position players. FanGraphs includes this year's CHONE projections, and even gives a WAR number. So that makes things easy. Here are the position players on the 40-man roster.

Player	WAR
Grady Sizemore	5
Shin-Soo Choo	3.1
Asdrubal Cabrera	2.8
Jhonny Peralta	2.2
Luis Valbuena	1.5
Matt LaPorta	1.3
Louis Marson	1.2
Travis Hafner	1.2
Brian Bixler	1
Michael Brantley	1
Mike Redmond	0.8
Trevor Crowe	0.8
Wyatt Toregas	0.8
Jordan Brown	0.6
Carlos Santana	0.4
Andy Marte	0.3
Nick Weglarz	-0.1
Chris Gimenez	-0.5
Jason Donald	-1
Wes Hodges	-1.1
Carlos Rivero	-1.3

Sizemore and Choo are really good, but you already knew that.

Next, the Non-Roster Invitees.

Player	WAR
Shelley Duncan	1.5
Russell Branyan	1.2
Brian Buscher	1
Austin Kearns	0.7
Luis Rodriguez	0
Mark Grudzielanek	-0.3
Damaso Espino	-0.7
Niuman Romero	-1.1
Beau Mills	-1.2
Lonnie Chisenhall	-1.8

Assuming we assemble a 25-man roster with 13 position players and 12 pitchers, here are the best possible position players we could take.

Player	WAR
Grady Sizemore	5
Shin-Soo Choo	3.1
Asdrubal Cabrera	2.8
Jhonny Peralta	2.2
Luis Valbuena	1.5
Shelley Duncan	1.5
Matt LaPorta	1.3
Louis Marson	1.2
Travis Hafner	1.2
Russell Branyan	1.2
Brian Bixler	1
Michael Brantley	1
Brian Buscher	1

OK, so we're short a catcher - that won't work.

Now, here's my best guess at what the actual opening day lineup will look like.

Player	WAR
Louis Marson	1.2
Matt LaPorta	1.3
Luis Valbuena	1.5
Jhonny Peralta	2.2
Asdrubal Cabrera	2.8
Michael Brantley	1
Grady Sizemore	5
Shin-Soo Choo	3.1
Travis Hafner	1.2
Mike Redmond	0.8
Brian Bixler	1
Andy Marte	0.3
Russell Branyan	1.2

The realistic lineup gives us 22.6 WAR, and the best-case gives us 24. Add that to our baseline of 47 wins, and we're already on pace to win 69-71 games.

Now, the pitchers. CHONE's website itself lists Runs Vs. Replacement for pitchers, which is nice. The common standard is that 10 runs = 1 win, so we'll divide the R vs. Rep by 10 to get each player's WAR.

Here are the pitchers on the 40-man.

Player	WAR
Justin Masterson	2.7
Fausto Carmona	2
Aaron Laffey	1.9
Jeremy Sowers	1.5
David Huff	1.4
Hector Rondon	1
Jake Westbrook	1
Hector Ambriz	0.8
Carlos Carrasco	0.6
Kerry Wood	0.6
Mitch Talbot	0.6
Rafael Perez	0.6
Chris Perez	0.5
Jensen Lewis	0.5
Jess Todd	0.4
Tony Sipp	0.4
Joe Smith	0.3
Jeanmar Gomez	-0.8

CHONE didn't have a projection for Kelvin De La Cruz. But boy, it sure is high on Justin Masterson, isn't it?

The non-roster invitees.

Player	WAR
Anthony Reyes	0.9
Jason Grilli	0.6
Mike Gosling	0.2
Saul Rivera	0.2
Frank Herrmann	-0.1
Josh Judy	-0.1
Zach Putnam	-0.3

Alex White and Yohan Pino didn't get CHONE projections.

Here's the best possible group of 12 pitchers.

Player	WAR
Fausto Carmona	2
Aaron Laffey	1.9
Jeremy Sowers	1.5
David Huff	1.4
Hector Rondon	1
Jake Westbrook	1
Anthony Reyes	0.9
Hector Ambriz	0.8
Carlos Carrasco	0.6
Kerry Wood	0.6
Mitch Talbot	0.6

Rafael Perez is also at 0.6, so feel free to substitute him in for Carrasco, Wood, or Talbot as you see fit.

Here's my best guess at the opening day staff. I wasn't sure quite how it was going to turn out, so I started with the guys under contract (Westrbook, Wood, Carmona, and Perez), added rule 5 pickup Ambriz, then just went in descending order by WAR after that.

Player	WAR
Jake Westbrook	1
Kerry Wood	0.6
Fausto Carmona	2
Rafael Perez	0.6
Hector Ambriz	0.8
Justin Masterson	2.7
Aaron Laffey	1.9
Jeremy Sowers	1.5
David Huff	1.4
Hector Rondon	1
Carlos Carrasco	0.6
Mitch Talbot	0.6

The best possible scenario clocks in at 15 total WAR, and the "realistic" one comes in just under that at 14.7. Add that to our 47-win baseline and the 22-24 wins by the hitters, and we're looking at a team that should win at least 80 games and could win as many as 87.

Of course, a word of caution: it was these types of sabermetric projections that predicted the Tribe to win the Central in '06, '08, and '09. But still, it's February, so why not be optimistic?

MLB Previews #1National League West

Once again, we kick off the MLB preview with the NL West. Teams are ordered by their CHONE projected standings from BaseballProjection.com.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rafael Furcal SS
Matt Kemp CF
Andre Ethier RF
Manny Ramirez LF
James Loney 1B
Casey Blake 3B
Ronnie Belliard 2B
Russell Martin C

Rotation
Clayton Kershaw
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Vincente Padilla
James McDonald
Eric Stults
Charlie Haeger

This is how you put together a lineup: start with homegrown talent (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), and fill in the holes with talented veterans. Nothing to complain about here, except maybe the continued employment of Ronnie Belliard. But then again it's hard to complain about a middle infielder who's consistently put up an OPS around .750.

If Belliard doesn't perform, Blake DeWitt is once again waiting in the wings. As is new acquisition Jamey Carroll, who quietly gets on base and plays solid infield defense. Fellow new acquisitions Brad Ausmus and Reed Johnson help fill out the bench and increase the team's scrappy white guy quotient. Ausmus will tutor Russ Martin and a relatively young pitching staff, while Johnson will back up all three outfield positions.

The top of the Dodgers rotation is set with Kershaw, Billingsley, and Kuroda. But with all LA has done to improve their lineup, one has to wonder whether they'll pick up another starting pitcher this season to take their team to the next level. Unless, of course, Padilla, Haeger, and Stults make that unnecessary.

Jonathan Broxton returns as the Dodgers closer, aided by Hong-Chih Kuo, former Orioles George Sherrill, and presumably whichever talented youngsters not in the rotation.

Colorado Rockies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dexter Fowler CF
Carlos Gonzalez LF
Todd Helton 1B
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Bradley Hawpe RF
Ian Stewart 3B
Chris Iannetta C
Clint Barmes 2B

Rotation
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jeff Francis
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Franklin Morales

Fear not, Rockies fans: CHONE predicts the Rockies to at least tie the Dodgers for first in the West. But they'll be doing it in a different way. Gone are the Blake Street Bombers of old, and here are a new mixture of speed, power, and contact in Colorado. The centerpiece of this team is Troy Tulowitzki, well on his way to becoming a household name. He's joined by speed at the top in Fowler and Gonzalez, power at the bottom in Hawpe, Stewart, and Iannetta, and the machine that is Todd Helton. Helton's power may be gone these days, but he still gets on base like no one else.

Colorado has filled its bench with players who are too old for everyday jobs, but who have a chance to shine in more limited roles. Jason Giambi is back as a left-handed pinch hitter, Melvin Mora is essentially the new utility man, and Miguel Olivo is a serviceable veteran backstop.

As strange as it may sound, Colorado's strength may be its starting rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez is, like Troy Tulowitzki, on path to become a star. He's helped out by Aaron Cook and the return of Jeff Francis. Francis missed all of 2009 with an injury, but prior to Jimenez' arrival, it was he who was the Rockies ace-in-training. And then there's Franklin Morales, who hopes to be the next prospect to make the ace reliever-to-ace starter transition.

If Morales can't hack it as a starter (and he probably can), he'll join a talented cast in the bullpen. The Rockies got an established closer in Huston Street, albeit one with consistency issues. But they also surrounded him with talented veteran setup men like Manny Corpas and Rafael Betancourt. All-in-all, this is a very balanced team.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Kelly Johnson 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Justin Upton RF
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Miguel Montero C
Conor Jackson LF
Chris Young CF

Rotation
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Edwin Jackson
Billy Buckner
Ian Kennedy
Kevin Mulvey
Bryan Augenstein

Third place looks appropriate for this team. They're still young, and still seem to favor power over getting on base. That tendency for power over contact seems to be reflected in the acquisition of Adam LaRoche. Offsetting that to some extent though is the signing of Kelly Johnson, a good all-around player.

Outside of Augie Ojeda, Arizona's bench is, like its lineup, a young one. Chris Snyder returns as a backup catcher after losing his job to Miguel Montero. Tony Abreu and Ryan Roberts will fight for a backup infield job. Gerardo Parra will fill in at all three outfield positions as the team continues to groom him for the future.

The Diamondbacks made a curious move early in the offseason when they traded two of their top prospects for Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. Critics were confused, and quickly grapsed for explanations. Maybe the D-backs are trying to win it all now? Maybe they know something about the prospects that they're not letting on? That all remains to be seen. Edwin Jackson's 2008 looked like a fluke, but then he backed it up in 2009. The 1-2-3 rotation spots on every team in this division are loaded with talent, and if Jackson can repeat his success in 2010, Arizona will be as good as any of its rivals.

Arizona's bullpen is a Who's Who of journeyman NL relievers, featuring Chad Qualls at closer and Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman setting him up. Moustached American of the Year Clay Zavada will also be working relief for the Diamondbacks this year.

San Diego Padres

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Everth Cabrera SS
David Eckstein 2B
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Chase Headley 3B
Nick Hundley C
Kyle Blanks LF
Scott Hairston CF
Will Venable RF

Rotation
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Jon Garland
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos
Wade LeBlanc
Tim Stauffer
Edward Mujica
Cesar Carrillo
Cesar Ramos

This is still a rebuilding team. But Adrian Gonzalez will keep 'em coming to the ballpark, as will heir apparent Kyle Blanks. Chase Headley will continue to grow as well. The big question here, of course, is whether the Friars will hold on to Gonzalez or trade him for prospects who can replace the aging placeholders in the lineup.

San Diego signed NL West Yorvit Torrealba as the backup catcher. Scott Hairston's brother Jerry is slated to be the utility infielder. And Tony Gwynn, Jr. will once again try to earn a reserve spot on the team that made his dad famous.

There are glimmers of hope in the Padres rotation. Young talents like Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, and Wade LeBlanc look to join steady veterans like Chris Young and Jon Garland. Of course, playing in the best pitchers' park in the league will certainly help their numbers, if not their development.

Heath Bell returns as one of the best closers in the game. He has to be, because he doesn't have much in the way of help. Bell is another player whose time may be short in San Diego; I'm sure many are suprised that he hasn't been traded yet.

San Francisco Giants

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Aaron Rowand CF
Edgar Renteria SS
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Bengie Molina C
Aubrey Huff 1B
Mark DeRosa LF
Freddy Sanchez 2B
Nate Schierholtz RF

Rotation
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Joe Martinez

What do you get when you combine a lineup built for 2005 with a rotation built for 2012? A team that crashes back down to earth following a suprise run at the playoffs. So it goes with this year's Giants. San Francisco added Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff and brought back Bengie Molina. DeRosa is a great complementary player on a playoff team, and I'm sure that's why the Giants brought him in. But this probably isn't a playoff team. Meanwhile, Huff and Molina's offensive value has all but vanished with age, as has Sanchez and Rowand's (assuming Rowand had any to begin with). The saving grace of this lineup is Kung Fu Panda Sandoval.

Another saving grace of this team is catcher Buster Posey. In an ideal world, Bengie Molina is only keeping the tools of ignorance warm until Posey takes them over. Of course, this is far from an ideal world.

A Cy Young winner, another guy in the race, and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball - all under the age of 26. Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner again have their work cut out for them. They'll have help from guys like Jonathan Sanchez, but how much help the offense can give remains to be seen.

Brian Wilson returns as the Giants closer. He's joined by Jeremy Affeldt and a cast of young nobodies.

The Class of 2010

There wasn't much turnout this year, with just three voters plus the carryover. So, I set the threshold at induction. Three individuals met that mark.


Klondike: Every Hall of Fame needs a chaperone. And a captain.


Golden Tate: A Google Image Search for "golden tate" awesome returns 3,940 results. This image is result number one.


Becca Hatton: The Best Goddaughter Ever joins her brother, a 2008 inductee, into the Hall.

Here are the also rans. There were several near misses, and all of those multiple vote getters will receive one carryover vote next year.

Name	Total
Dave	2
F-Bomb	2
Knute Rockne	2
Kanka's Dad	2
Randy Waldrum	2
Brady Quinn	1
Kyle McCarthy	1
Michael T. Good	1
Joe Posnanski	1
Muffett McGraw	1

Cleveland Indians: A Look at Baseball America's 2010 Top Prospect List

The other day, Baseball America released their Top 10 Indians Prospects for 2010. This announcement is always fun, because not only does it list the best up-and-comers in the organization, but it also looks at the best tools and tries to predict a future lineup. In this case, BA looks ahead to the year 2013.

The Prospects List

Carlos Santana is once again atop the list, and he is surely the centerpiece of the Tribe's next title run. After leading the Aeros to a AA title in 2009, it may only be a matter of time before Santana makes his MLB debut.

Hot on Santana's heels is Lonnie Chisenhall. The Indians were panned for going off-the-board and taking Chisenhall in the supplemental first round two years ago. But since then, he's done nothing but hit. Chisenhall was never expected to stick at shortstop, and in fact he has already made the move to third. Barely 21, and in the pros for barely over a year, Chis has already made it to AA. At this pace, he's en route to a long, successful Major League career.

In both the Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee trades, the Indians acquired a very young potential ace. Those aces are Nick Hagadone and Jason Knapp, and their potential put them in the top four on BA's list. Cleveland fans will have to wait a while for the payoff, but it should be sweet.

Michael Brantley held his own in the Majors last year, and in doing so may have won the starting left field job in 2010. Had it not been for injuries, we may have been talking about Canadian hero Nick Weglarz in that spot. The two are a contrast in styles: Brantley is a speedy contact hitter, and Weglarz is pure power.

Hector Rondon joins Weglarz as the only players in the Indians organization prior to 2008 who made this list. Rondon has slowly and surely worked his way up the prospect list, and that patience should pay off sooner rather than later.

Carlos Carrasco is raw with ace potential. Unfortunately, he may be more raw than potential. However, a good spring training could land him in the starting rotation this year.

The list is rounded out by a pair of 2009 draft picks. Alex White was drafted as a reliever, and Baseball America seems to think he'll stick there as the Tribe's future closer.

This Year's List vs. Last Year's

Matt LaPorta and David Huff graduated, although I'm sure both wished for better rookie seasons. Also gone are Adam Miller, Beau Mills, Kelvin de la Cruz, and Carlos Rivero, all hampered by injuries, poor seasons, and the new infusion of talent in the system. That's not to say these guys won't be back on the list, or even in the Majors, next year.

Chisenhall was the noted big riser, but Brantley impressed as well by letting his playing do the talking. Weglarz dropped a bit, mostly due to poor performance that was the result of a broken foot.

Best Tools

There weren't many surprises here, and not many changes here. Guys like Brantley, Santana, and Hagadone earned their spot in the top 10 with multiple appearances on this list. Also of note is that Jason Donald was named Best Defensive Infielder. Part of the Lee trade, Donald may stick with the parent club this year as a utility infielder.

Cleveland Indians Projected 2013 Lineup

Holy turnover! Of the top 10, all but Kipnis are expected to be regulars by 2013. But that's not surprising for a rebuilding team, and it also shows that the Indians are rebuilding with a purpose.

There's no big surprises among the position players. Luis Valbuena, Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brantley are all young players already expected to start in 2010. Santana and LaPorta are known to be the heirs apparent at their respective situations. And the phasing out of Jhonny Peralta and Travis Hafner should come as no surprise to Indians fans.

The turnover in the pitching rotation is radical, however. Only Carrasco and Justin Masterson survive from last year. What of Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, and Aaron Laffey?

Westbrook's contract is up after this year, and resigning the veteran will probably not be in this rebuilding club's plans, for better or worse. The Indians have club options on Carmona from 2012 through 2014, and at his current rate of performance he may not survive that first round. Laffey may simply be an oversight on BA's part based on injuries and inconsistency this past year.

SchedulingOr: Yes, This Blog Is Still Active

Yes, we're still going here, if not as strongly in the past. I'm trying to get back on the blogging wagon, so in the interest of accountability, here's what's on the docket for the next few weeks:

• Hall of Fame balloting is now open. Click here for more.


• Reactions to the Brian Kelly hiring. (Preview: I'm a fan.)


• Reactions to the Granderson and Halladay/Lee trades.


• Finally, finally, finally catching up on email.


• National Lampoon Sports Minutes (Or So)


• Updating the countdown clock. (Yes, there will be one this year.)


• Sharing code I wrote to convert Excel to HTML tables, and to automate the Horse Trailer.


• The yearly Notre Dame Unified Winter Sports Schedule.

It's Ballot Time Again (Finally)

Once again, it's time to vote for the KankaNation Hall of Fame.

List up to 10 people you think should be in the KankaNation Hall of Fame, and email to kanka@kankasports.zzn.com by 5 pm Eastern on December 31.
Those who receive a certain percentage of the vote (depends on how many ballots are received; usually 66-75%) will join the Classes of 2004-2009. Those who received multiple votes last year will receive one carryover vote this year.

To view past inductees and voting results, click one of the links below:
Class of 2004
Class of 2005
Class of 2006
Class of 2007
Class of 2008
Class of 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009Issue 11: UConn

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Prediction

Notre Dame 32, UConn 26