Friday, February 26, 2010

MLB Previews #2
American League West

Texas Rangers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ian Kinsler 2B
Michael Young 3B
Josh Hamilton LF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Nelson Cruz RF
Chris Davis 1B
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
Elvis Andrus SS
Julio Borbon CF

Rotation
Rich Harden
Scott Feldman
Colby Lewis
Derek Holland
Brandon McCarthy
Tommy Hunter
Matt Harrison
Dustin Nippert
Doug Mathis
Neftali Feliz


In essence, he who owns Vald Guerrero owns the AL West. After a surprising run to 87 wins last year, the Rangers are a trendy pick to unseat the Angels in 2010. This team can no doubt hit, and if Guerrero can stay healthy he'll add to Arlington's trademark offense. If Julio Borbon can maintain his OBP over the course of a full season, they'll have a great leadoff hitter to complement the power in the rest of the lineup.

The Rangers are still stacked at catcher, with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez backing up Saltalamacchia. None of those three may reach the ceiling they were once thought to have, but together they're still a respectable MLB-caliber unit. Speaking of players who never lived up to their ceiling, NCAA hit king Khalil Greene joins the team
as a utility infielder. One player who hopes to avoid the "bust" tag is future first baseman Justin Smoak, who's just the tip of the iceberg for one of the best minor league systems in baseball today.

Rich Harden is always a great pickup if he can stay healthy, but that's a big if. Fortunately, a pair of no-names in Scott Feldman and Colby Lewis are expected to put up solid numbers this year. Oh, and there's also that Neftali Feliz guy, who was lights-out in the bullpen last year and is the Rangers ace-in-training.

Frank Francisco, a longtime Rangers setup man who became their closer last year, returns to the stopper role. He'll be supported by a number of bullpen mainstays, including Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, Willie Eyre and former Orioles closer Chris Ray.

Los Angeles Angels

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Howie Kendrick 2B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Kendry Morales 1B
Juan Rivera LF
Hideki Matsui DH
Mike Napoli C
Brandon Wood 3B
Erick Aybar SS

Rotation
Ervin Santana
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
Scott Kazmir
Joel Piniero
Matt Palmer
Sean O'Sullivan
Trevor Bell
Anthony Ortega


Honestly, I'm not sure who the Angels leadoff hitter will be. Abreu is probably idea for that spot, but he's shied away from it in the past in favor of being a run producer. The trade of Chone Figgins is great news for Brandon Wood, who finally gets a starting spot after being blocked by Erick Aybar and others at short for many years. The addition of Hideki Matsui is great for the batting order, but perhaps not so much for the defensive lineup, since neither he nor Juan Rivera should be playing much outfield at all these days.

Fortunately, the Angels have never been short on utility outfielders. Reggie Willits is still with the club, and should see decent playing time as a defensive replacement, and when the aging outfielders need a day off. Macier Izturis is putting together a respectable career as a utility infielder, and he too should see good playing time if one of the starters should happen to falter.

If anything gets the Angels to the division crown again this year, it's their rotation. After a few rough patches, Ervin Santana and Jeff Weaver have settled down as reliable starters. Joe Saunders and Joel Piniero are workhorses. And former ace Scott Kazmir could be a steal. Not many teams can boast this much quality from all five spots in their rotation.

Of course, bullpen strength has also been a trademark of the Angels in the 2000s. Brian Fuentes returns as the team's closer, aided by ageless wonders Scot Shields and Rudy Seanez. Fireballer Fernando Rodney also gives the team a new, intriguing weapon out of the pen.

Oakland Athletics

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Coco Crisp CF
Rajai Davis LF
Jack Cust DH
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Kurt Suzuki C
Ryan Sweeney RF
Daric Barton 1B
Mark Ellis 2B
Cliff Pennington SS

Rotation
Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Ben Sheets
Justin Ducherer
Vin Mazzaro
Dallas Braden
Gio Gonzalez
Josh Outman
Clayton Mortensen


Speed and defense are the new market inefficiency. The A's got both in new centerfielder Coco Crisp. Kevin Kouzmanoff highlights a laundry list of never-has-beens trying to win the third base job. He'll be competing with Jake Fox and Dallas McPherson to take over Eric Chavez's job. (Chavez, of course, fell a little short of his own potential thanks to injuries.)

In addition to the third basemen-a-plenty, Oakland's bench also features journeyman outfielder Gabe Gross.

Like its across-the-bay counterparts, the A's will look for their young, talented pitching staff to carry a questionable offense. Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill are two of the best up-and-coming arms in the game. They'll be joined by Ben Sheets, who went from a perennial Cy Young candidate to a forgotten man after he lost all of 2009 with an injury. Among those fighting for the last few spots in the rotation is be-stirruped wonder Josh Outman.

Andrew Bailey, Oakland's token All Star from last year, returns as the closer. He'll be joined by talented setup men Brad Ziegler and Mike Wuertz, as well as Indians castoffs Craig Breslow and Jon Meloan.

Seattle Mariners

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Ichiro Suzuki RF
Chone Figgins 3B
Milton Bradley LF
Ken Griffey, Jr DH
Jose Lopez 2B
Casey Kotchman 1B
Rob Johnson C
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Jack Wilson SS

Rotation
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
Doug Fister
Luke French
Jason Vargas
Anthony Varvaro
Edward Paredes
Ryan Feierabend
Garrett Olson


Regression is a cruel mistress. Seattle, the sabermetric darlings, won 85 games last year. They then made some major upgrades. And yet it looks like they'll struggle to top .500 this year. If they do finish with a losing record, it won't be because of the bat of Milton Bradley (assuming he stays healthy and calm), the gloves of Franklin Gutierrez and Jack Wilson, or the all-around play of Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins. It's up to the rest of the lineup to come through for the Mariners.

Seattle's bench features backup outfielders Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans. Both should be ready to serve as defensive replacements for Bradley, and as injury replacements when Bradley and Griffey go down. Ryan Garko could also see some time at DH if Griffey struggles, or at first base if Kotchman has trouble handling lefties. Waiting in the wings - and waiting to find a position - is top prospect Dustin Ackley. But perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself, since Ackley is at least a year away from the bigs.

Seattle may now have the best left-right/one-two punch in the majors. If Erik Bedard can return to a level anywhere near his success with the Orioles, this team won't even need to hit to win games. But even if Bedard can't, this is still a very good rotation from top-to-bottom, with Rowland-Smith and a rejuvenated Ian Snell taking the last two spots. There's also plenty of depth, especially with Lorain County native Ryan Feierabend once again waiting in the wings after missing all of 2009 with an injury.

The old joke is that David Aardsma is ahead of Hank Aaron in the record books... alphabetically. Aardsma is also Seattle's closer. He'll be joined in the bullpen by swingman Brandon Morrow and a largely untested group of relievers.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Cleveland Indians: CHONE's WAR Gives Hope for a Winning Season

The Cleveland Indians may be rebuilding again, but it's hard not to be optimistic when CHONE predicts the team to win at least 81 games and finish second in the division.

Let's take a closer look at those projections, using WAR - Wins Above Replacement.

For those unfamiliar with the stat, WAR compares a given player to a replacement player - basically, any random guy you'd pull out of AAA. WAR is nice because it takes into account defense and position difficulty (it's harder to play shortstop than left field) in addition to offense.

It's said that a team of nothing but replacement players will win 47 games. So let's start with that as our baseline.

First, we'll look at the position players. FanGraphs includes this year's CHONE projections, and even gives a WAR number. So that makes things easy. Here are the position players on the 40-man roster.
PlayerWAR
Grady Sizemore5
Shin-Soo Choo3.1
Asdrubal Cabrera2.8
Jhonny Peralta2.2
Luis Valbuena1.5
Matt LaPorta1.3
Louis Marson1.2
Travis Hafner1.2
Brian Bixler1
Michael Brantley1
Mike Redmond0.8
Trevor Crowe0.8
Wyatt Toregas0.8
Jordan Brown0.6
Carlos Santana0.4
Andy Marte0.3
Nick Weglarz-0.1
Chris Gimenez-0.5
Jason Donald-1
Wes Hodges-1.1
Carlos Rivero-1.3

Sizemore and Choo are really good, but you already knew that.

Next, the Non-Roster Invitees.
PlayerWAR
Shelley Duncan1.5
Russell Branyan1.2
Brian Buscher1
Austin Kearns0.7
Luis Rodriguez0
Mark Grudzielanek-0.3
Damaso Espino-0.7
Niuman Romero-1.1
Beau Mills-1.2
Lonnie Chisenhall-1.8


Assuming we assemble a 25-man roster with 13 position players and 12 pitchers, here are the best possible position players we could take.
PlayerWAR
Grady Sizemore5
Shin-Soo Choo3.1
Asdrubal Cabrera2.8
Jhonny Peralta2.2
Luis Valbuena1.5
Shelley Duncan1.5
Matt LaPorta1.3
Louis Marson1.2
Travis Hafner1.2
Russell Branyan1.2
Brian Bixler1
Michael Brantley1
Brian Buscher1

OK, so we're short a catcher - that won't work.

Now, here's my best guess at what the actual opening day lineup will look like.
PlayerWAR
Louis Marson1.2
Matt LaPorta1.3
Luis Valbuena1.5
Jhonny Peralta2.2
Asdrubal Cabrera2.8
Michael Brantley1
Grady Sizemore5
Shin-Soo Choo3.1
Travis Hafner1.2
Mike Redmond0.8
Brian Bixler1
Andy Marte0.3
Russell Branyan1.2

The realistic lineup gives us 22.6 WAR, and the best-case gives us 24. Add that to our baseline of 47 wins, and we're already on pace to win 69-71 games.

Now, the pitchers. CHONE's website itself lists Runs Vs. Replacement for pitchers, which is nice. The common standard is that 10 runs = 1 win, so we'll divide the R vs. Rep by 10 to get each player's WAR.

Here are the pitchers on the 40-man.
PlayerWAR
Justin Masterson2.7
Fausto Carmona2
Aaron Laffey1.9
Jeremy Sowers1.5
David Huff1.4
Hector Rondon1
Jake Westbrook1
Hector Ambriz0.8
Carlos Carrasco0.6
Kerry Wood0.6
Mitch Talbot0.6
Rafael Perez0.6
Chris Perez0.5
Jensen Lewis0.5
Jess Todd0.4
Tony Sipp0.4
Joe Smith0.3
Jeanmar Gomez-0.8

CHONE didn't have a projection for Kelvin De La Cruz. But boy, it sure is high on Justin Masterson, isn't it?

The non-roster invitees.
PlayerWAR
Anthony Reyes0.9
Jason Grilli0.6
Mike Gosling0.2
Saul Rivera0.2
Frank Herrmann-0.1
Josh Judy-0.1
Zach Putnam-0.3

Alex White and Yohan Pino didn't get CHONE projections.

Here's the best possible group of 12 pitchers.
PlayerWAR
Fausto Carmona2
Aaron Laffey1.9
Jeremy Sowers1.5
David Huff1.4
Hector Rondon1
Jake Westbrook1
Anthony Reyes0.9
Hector Ambriz0.8
Carlos Carrasco0.6
Kerry Wood0.6
Mitch Talbot0.6

Rafael Perez is also at 0.6, so feel free to substitute him in for Carrasco, Wood, or Talbot as you see fit.

Here's my best guess at the opening day staff. I wasn't sure quite how it was going to turn out, so I started with the guys under contract (Westrbook, Wood, Carmona, and Perez), added rule 5 pickup Ambriz, then just went in descending order by WAR after that.
PlayerWAR
Jake Westbrook1
Kerry Wood0.6
Fausto Carmona2
Rafael Perez0.6
Hector Ambriz0.8
Justin Masterson2.7
Aaron Laffey1.9
Jeremy Sowers1.5
David Huff1.4
Hector Rondon1
Carlos Carrasco0.6
Mitch Talbot0.6


The best possible scenario clocks in at 15 total WAR, and the "realistic" one comes in just under that at 14.7. Add that to our 47-win baseline and the 22-24 wins by the hitters, and we're looking at a team that should win at least 80 games and could win as many as 87.

Of course, a word of caution: it was these types of sabermetric projections that predicted the Tribe to win the Central in '06, '08, and '09. But still, it's February, so why not be optimistic?

Thursday, February 18, 2010

MLB Previews #1
National League West

Once again, we kick off the MLB preview with the NL West. Teams are ordered by their CHONE projected standings from BaseballProjection.com.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rafael Furcal SS
Matt Kemp CF
Andre Ethier RF
Manny Ramirez LF
James Loney 1B
Casey Blake 3B
Ronnie Belliard 2B
Russell Martin C

Rotation
Clayton Kershaw
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Vincente Padilla
James McDonald
Eric Stults
Charlie Haeger


This is how you put together a lineup: start with homegrown talent (Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Martin), and fill in the holes with talented veterans. Nothing to complain about here, except maybe the continued employment of Ronnie Belliard. But then again it's hard to complain about a middle infielder who's consistently put up an OPS around .750.

If Belliard doesn't perform, Blake DeWitt is once again waiting in the wings. As is new acquisition Jamey Carroll, who quietly gets on base and plays solid infield defense. Fellow new acquisitions Brad Ausmus and Reed Johnson help fill out the bench and increase the team's scrappy white guy quotient. Ausmus will tutor Russ Martin and a relatively young pitching staff, while Johnson will back up all three outfield positions.

The top of the Dodgers rotation is set with Kershaw, Billingsley, and Kuroda. But with all LA has done to improve their lineup, one has to wonder whether they'll pick up another starting pitcher this season to take their team to the next level. Unless, of course, Padilla, Haeger, and Stults make that unnecessary.

Jonathan Broxton returns as the Dodgers closer, aided by Hong-Chih Kuo, former Orioles George Sherrill, and presumably whichever talented youngsters not in the rotation.

Colorado Rockies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Dexter Fowler CF
Carlos Gonzalez LF
Todd Helton 1B
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Bradley Hawpe RF
Ian Stewart 3B
Chris Iannetta C
Clint Barmes 2B

Rotation
Ubaldo Jimenez
Aaron Cook
Jeff Francis
Jorge De La Rosa
Jason Hammel
Franklin Morales


Fear not, Rockies fans: CHONE predicts the Rockies to at least tie the Dodgers for first in the West. But they'll be doing it in a different way. Gone are the Blake Street Bombers of old, and here are a new mixture of speed, power, and contact in Colorado. The centerpiece of this team is Troy Tulowitzki, well on his way to becoming a household name. He's joined by speed at the top in Fowler and Gonzalez, power at the bottom in Hawpe, Stewart, and Iannetta, and the machine that is Todd Helton. Helton's power may be gone these days, but he still gets on base like no one else.

Colorado has filled its bench with players who are too old for everyday jobs, but who have a chance to shine in more limited roles. Jason Giambi is back as a left-handed pinch hitter, Melvin Mora is essentially the new utility man, and Miguel Olivo is a serviceable veteran backstop.

As strange as it may sound, Colorado's strength may be its starting rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez is, like Troy Tulowitzki, on path to become a star. He's helped out by Aaron Cook and the return of Jeff Francis. Francis missed all of 2009 with an injury, but prior to Jimenez' arrival, it was he who was the Rockies ace-in-training. And then there's Franklin Morales, who hopes to be the next prospect to make the ace reliever-to-ace starter transition.

If Morales can't hack it as a starter (and he probably can), he'll join a talented cast in the bullpen. The Rockies got an established closer in Huston Street, albeit one with consistency issues. But they also surrounded him with talented veteran setup men like Manny Corpas and Rafael Betancourt. All-in-all, this is a very balanced team.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Kelly Johnson 2B
Stephen Drew SS
Justin Upton RF
Mark Reynolds 3B
Adam LaRoche 1B
Miguel Montero C
Conor Jackson LF
Chris Young CF

Rotation
Dan Haren
Brandon Webb
Edwin Jackson
Billy Buckner
Ian Kennedy
Kevin Mulvey
Bryan Augenstein


Third place looks appropriate for this team. They're still young, and still seem to favor power over getting on base. That tendency for power over contact seems to be reflected in the acquisition of Adam LaRoche. Offsetting that to some extent though is the signing of Kelly Johnson, a good all-around player.

Outside of Augie Ojeda, Arizona's bench is, like its lineup, a young one. Chris Snyder returns as a backup catcher after losing his job to Miguel Montero. Tony Abreu and Ryan Roberts will fight for a backup infield job. Gerardo Parra will fill in at all three outfield positions as the team continues to groom him for the future.

The Diamondbacks made a curious move early in the offseason when they traded two of their top prospects for Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. Critics were confused, and quickly grapsed for explanations. Maybe the D-backs are trying to win it all now? Maybe they know something about the prospects that they're not letting on? That all remains to be seen. Edwin Jackson's 2008 looked like a fluke, but then he backed it up in 2009. The 1-2-3 rotation spots on every team in this division are loaded with talent, and if Jackson can repeat his success in 2010, Arizona will be as good as any of its rivals.

Arizona's bullpen is a Who's Who of journeyman NL relievers, featuring Chad Qualls at closer and Bob Howry and Aaron Heilman setting him up. Moustached American of the Year Clay Zavada will also be working relief for the Diamondbacks this year.

San Diego Padres

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Everth Cabrera SS
David Eckstein 2B
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Chase Headley 3B
Nick Hundley C
Kyle Blanks LF
Scott Hairston CF
Will Venable RF

Rotation
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Jon Garland
Clayton Richard
Mat Latos
Wade LeBlanc
Tim Stauffer
Edward Mujica
Cesar Carrillo
Cesar Ramos


This is still a rebuilding team. But Adrian Gonzalez will keep 'em coming to the ballpark, as will heir apparent Kyle Blanks. Chase Headley will continue to grow as well. The big question here, of course, is whether the Friars will hold on to Gonzalez or trade him for prospects who can replace the aging placeholders in the lineup.

San Diego signed NL West Yorvit Torrealba as the backup catcher. Scott Hairston's brother Jerry is slated to be the utility infielder. And Tony Gwynn, Jr. will once again try to earn a reserve spot on the team that made his dad famous.

There are glimmers of hope in the Padres rotation. Young talents like Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, and Wade LeBlanc look to join steady veterans like Chris Young and Jon Garland. Of course, playing in the best pitchers' park in the league will certainly help their numbers, if not their development.

Heath Bell returns as one of the best closers in the game. He has to be, because he doesn't have much in the way of help. Bell is another player whose time may be short in San Diego; I'm sure many are suprised that he hasn't been traded yet.

San Francisco Giants

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Aaron Rowand CF
Edgar Renteria SS
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Bengie Molina C
Aubrey Huff 1B
Mark DeRosa LF
Freddy Sanchez 2B
Nate Schierholtz RF

Rotation
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Madison Bumgarner
Joe Martinez


What do you get when you combine a lineup built for 2005 with a rotation built for 2012? A team that crashes back down to earth following a suprise run at the playoffs. So it goes with this year's Giants. San Francisco added Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff and brought back Bengie Molina. DeRosa is a great complementary player on a playoff team, and I'm sure that's why the Giants brought him in. But this probably isn't a playoff team. Meanwhile, Huff and Molina's offensive value has all but vanished with age, as has Sanchez and Rowand's (assuming Rowand had any to begin with). The saving grace of this lineup is Kung Fu Panda Sandoval.

Another saving grace of this team is catcher Buster Posey. In an ideal world, Bengie Molina is only keeping the tools of ignorance warm until Posey takes them over. Of course, this is far from an ideal world.

A Cy Young winner, another guy in the race, and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball - all under the age of 26. Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner again have their work cut out for them. They'll have help from guys like Jonathan Sanchez, but how much help the offense can give remains to be seen.

Brian Wilson returns as the Giants closer. He's joined by Jeremy Affeldt and a cast of young nobodies.

Friday, January 15, 2010

The Class of 2010

There wasn't much turnout this year, with just three voters plus the carryover. So, I set the threshold at induction. Three individuals met that mark.


Klondike: Every Hall of Fame needs a chaperone. And a captain.


Golden Tate: A Google Image Search for "golden tate" awesome returns 3,940 results. This image is result number one.


Becca Hatton: The Best Goddaughter Ever joins her brother, a 2008 inductee, into the Hall.

Here are the also rans. There were several near misses, and all of those multiple vote getters will receive one carryover vote next year.
NameTotal
Dave2
F-Bomb2
Knute Rockne2
Kanka's Dad2
Randy Waldrum2
Brady Quinn1
Kyle McCarthy1
Michael T. Good1
Joe Posnanski1
Muffett McGraw1

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Cleveland Indians: A Look at Baseball America's 2010 Top Prospect List

The other day, Baseball America released their Top 10 Indians Prospects for 2010. This announcement is always fun, because not only does it list the best up-and-comers in the organization, but it also looks at the best tools and tries to predict a future lineup. In this case, BA looks ahead to the year 2013.

The Prospects List

Carlos Santana is once again atop the list, and he is surely the centerpiece of the Tribe's next title run. After leading the Aeros to a AA title in 2009, it may only be a matter of time before Santana makes his MLB debut.

Hot on Santana's heels is Lonnie Chisenhall. The Indians were panned for going off-the-board and taking Chisenhall in the supplemental first round two years ago. But since then, he's done nothing but hit. Chisenhall was never expected to stick at shortstop, and in fact he has already made the move to third. Barely 21, and in the pros for barely over a year, Chis has already made it to AA. At this pace, he's en route to a long, successful Major League career.

In both the Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee trades, the Indians acquired a very young potential ace. Those aces are Nick Hagadone and Jason Knapp, and their potential put them in the top four on BA's list. Cleveland fans will have to wait a while for the payoff, but it should be sweet.

Michael Brantley held his own in the Majors last year, and in doing so may have won the starting left field job in 2010. Had it not been for injuries, we may have been talking about Canadian hero Nick Weglarz in that spot. The two are a contrast in styles: Brantley is a speedy contact hitter, and Weglarz is pure power.

Hector Rondon joins Weglarz as the only players in the Indians organization prior to 2008 who made this list. Rondon has slowly and surely worked his way up the prospect list, and that patience should pay off sooner rather than later.

Carlos Carrasco is raw with ace potential. Unfortunately, he may be more raw than potential. However, a good spring training could land him in the starting rotation this year.

The list is rounded out by a pair of 2009 draft picks. Alex White was drafted as a reliever, and Baseball America seems to think he'll stick there as the Tribe's future closer.

This Year's List vs. Last Year's

Matt LaPorta and David Huff graduated, although I'm sure both wished for better rookie seasons. Also gone are Adam Miller, Beau Mills, Kelvin de la Cruz, and Carlos Rivero, all hampered by injuries, poor seasons, and the new infusion of talent in the system. That's not to say these guys won't be back on the list, or even in the Majors, next year.

Chisenhall was the noted big riser, but Brantley impressed as well by letting his playing do the talking. Weglarz dropped a bit, mostly due to poor performance that was the result of a broken foot.

Best Tools

There weren't many surprises here, and not many changes here. Guys like Brantley, Santana, and Hagadone earned their spot in the top 10 with multiple appearances on this list. Also of note is that Jason Donald was named Best Defensive Infielder. Part of the Lee trade, Donald may stick with the parent club this year as a utility infielder.

Cleveland Indians Projected 2013 Lineup

Holy turnover! Of the top 10, all but Kipnis are expected to be regulars by 2013. But that's not surprising for a rebuilding team, and it also shows that the Indians are rebuilding with a purpose.

There's no big surprises among the position players. Luis Valbuena, Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brantley are all young players already expected to start in 2010. Santana and LaPorta are known to be the heirs apparent at their respective situations. And the phasing out of Jhonny Peralta and Travis Hafner should come as no surprise to Indians fans.

The turnover in the pitching rotation is radical, however. Only Carrasco and Justin Masterson survive from last year. What of Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona, and Aaron Laffey?

Westbrook's contract is up after this year, and resigning the veteran will probably not be in this rebuilding club's plans, for better or worse. The Indians have club options on Carmona from 2012 through 2014, and at his current rate of performance he may not survive that first round. Laffey may simply be an oversight on BA's part based on injuries and inconsistency this past year.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Scheduling
Or: Yes, This Blog Is Still Active

Yes, we're still going here, if not as strongly in the past. I'm trying to get back on the blogging wagon, so in the interest of accountability, here's what's on the docket for the next few weeks:

  • Hall of Fame balloting is now open. Click here for more.

  • Reactions to the Brian Kelly hiring. (Preview: I'm a fan.)

  • Reactions to the Granderson and Halladay/Lee trades.

  • Finally, finally, finally catching up on email.

  • National Lampoon Sports Minutes (Or So)

  • Updating the countdown clock. (Yes, there will be one this year.)

  • Sharing code I wrote to convert Excel to HTML tables, and to automate the Horse Trailer.

  • The yearly Notre Dame Unified Winter Sports Schedule.

It's Ballot Time Again (Finally)

Once again, it's time to vote for the KankaNation Hall of Fame.

List up to 10 people you think should be in the KankaNation Hall of Fame, and email to kanka@kankasports.zzn.com by 5 pm Eastern on December 31.
Those who receive a certain percentage of the vote (depends on how many ballots are received; usually 66-75%) will join the Classes of 2004-2009. Those who received multiple votes last year will receive one carryover vote this year.

To view past inductees and voting results, click one of the links below:
Class of 2004
Class of 2005
Class of 2006
Class of 2007
Class of 2008
Class of 2009

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 11: UConn

Notre Dame Players to Watch

34 Aldridge, James Fullback37 Anello, Mike Cornerback38 Bathon, Chris Safety31 Brown, Sergio Safety86 Burger, Bobby Fullback/Tight End64 Burke, Tom Linebacker39 Burkhart, Ryan Kicker24 Coughlin, Brian Wide Receiver72 Duncan, Paul Offensive Tackle42 Franco, Dan Wide Receiver21 Gallup Jr., Barry Wide Receiver24 Gordon, Leonard Safety6 Herring, Ray Safety43 Maust, Eric Punter28 McCarthy, Kyle Safety8 McNeil, Raeshon Cornerback93 Mullen, Paddy Nose Tackle47 Narvaez, Mike Fullback55 Olsen, Eric Center/Guard82 Parris, Robby Wide Receiver61 Quintana, Martin Defensive Lineman53 Richardson, Morrice Defensive End90 Ryan, John Defensive End13 Sharpley, Evan Quarterback41 Smith, Scott Linebacker49 Smith, Toryan Linebacker59 Stewart, Chris Offensive Guard43 Stull, Joshua Cornerback85 Vos, Sam Wide Receiver97 Wade, Kallen Defensive End2 Walls, Darrin Cornerback51 Wenger, Dan Center19 West Jr., George Wide Receiver74 Young, Sam Offensive Tackle

Prediction

Notre Dame 32, UConn 26

Thursday, November 05, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 9: Navy (Express Preview)

The good news is that Clausen, Allen, Parris, and yes, Michael Floyd are back. Of course, Parris and Floyd will be limited, and Parris isn't even listed on the two-deep. (Walker, Evans, and Goodman are listed as Tate and Floyd's backups).

The bad news is that Crist and Trevor Robinson are out. But Robinson's loss will hopefully not be a big one, as he's replaced by Dan Wenger, who started for most of last season. Plus, Robinson's injury will give younger players a chance to gain experience on a line that now features five seniors.

The University of the Navy scares me to death with their triple option attack. The only way to beat it is to fight discipline with discipline, and that's something the Irish defense has lacked this year.

Ethan Johnson, Ian Williams, and Brian Smith started slowly, but have improved as the season has gone on. They'll need to plug up the middle, or else Navy will keep pounding away with their fullback.

On the outside, smart assignment football is needed. The defensive ends shouldn't be an issue, as long as they can fight off the cut blocks. But senior John Ryan has been here before, and Kapron Lewis-Moore - assuming he can go despite an ankle injury last week - has quietly shined this year. (Perhaps he's another late blooming defensive lineman a la Trevor Laws?)

The outside linebackers and safeties are essential to preventing big runs. Te'o is only a freshman and facing a service academy for the first time. But he's shown the best instincts of anyone on this team not named Kyle McCarthy.

On the other side is Harrison Smith, whose mental lapses in assignments could spell trouble in this game. However, with Navy not running many three-receiver sets, we'll probably see more of Darius Fleming than Smith.

Another player to watch is strong safety Sergio Brown. He's a senior, but with little starting experience at his current position. Will he have the discipline to stay on his assignment, or will he go for the big play?

Oh, and on top of all that, Navy has a quarterback that can pass. Ricky Dobbs is averaging eight attempts and four completions a game, and nearly won it for the Midshipmen last year. Still, Notre Dame's goal will be to shut down the option on first and second down and force an obvious passing situation on third down. Navy may have their best passing quarterback in years, but even Dobbs can only do so much when the element of surprise is taken away.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Allen, Floyd, Harrison Smith, Brown

Predition

Notre Dame 34, Navy 23

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 8: Washington State

Washington State Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

#34 Logwone Mitz is listed as Washington State's new starting running back. That's a bit of a surprise, considering his 2.9 yards per carry average is a step back from the 3.3 YPC average of the guy he replaced, #31 Dwight Tardy.

But the 229-pound Mitz, 204-pound Tardy, and 197-pound #32 Carl Winston each bring something different to the table, so look for a mix of all three backs. Mitz is averaging five carries and 16 yards per game, Tardy eight for 26.6, and Winston seven for 34.7.

Washington State does not employ a fullback, and quarterback #10 Jeff Tuel does not run much unless it's backwards (the Cougars are giving up five sacks per game). However, a handful of Washington State receivers have recorded carries with varying success, so that is something to look out for.

Notre Dame's run defense is still a work in progress, giving up 127 yards per game. Safeties Kyle McCarthy and Harrison Smith still lead the team in tackles, but linebackers Brian Smith and Manti Te'o are quickly gaining on them. Te'o has been especially impressive, leading the team in tackles ever since he was inserted into the starting lineup.

Also gaining on the leaders is end Kapron Lewis-Moore, who's quietly putting together a solid season with 28 tackles, five for a loss.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Washington State Run Defense

Armando Allen continues to pace the Irish run game, averaging 17 carries and 85.7 yards per game. Robert Hughes has been solid in his own right, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and matching Allen's team lead with three rushing touchdowns.

If all goes well for the Irish, Jonas Gray and Theo Riddick will be fighting for carries late in the game. As a sign of the vast improvement in the offensive line this year, Gray and fullback James Aldridge are the only Irish runners averaging less than four yards per carry this year. Of course, it won't take much for Gray to reach that mark, as he's already at 3.8 YPC.

Washington State's run defense is, bluntly, awful. Per game, the team is giving up 215.4 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Per carry, they're giving up 5.8 yards. It's hard to get the ball back when an opponent can pick up first downs in just two rushing attempts.

Predictably, the leading tacklers on this team are its safeties, #21 Chima Nwachukwu (55) and #26 Xavier Hicks. Unfortunately for the Cougars, linebacker #46 Louis Bland - who is third on the team with 42 tackles and tied for first with 4.0 tackles for a loss - is not on the depth chart after suffering a knee injury.

Washington State Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Freshman Jeff Tuel has been a pleasant surpise for the Cougars. In four games, he's completed 61.4 percent of his passes with an efficiency rating of 132.7. He's averaging 165.5 yards per game with four touchdowns to three interceptions. On the average day, Tuel will attempt 22 passes and complete 13 or 14 of them.

Washington State runs a base 1 RB/1 TE/3 WR set, so it's no surprise that Jeff Tuel's top four targets this year have been receivers. #84 Jared Karstetter, #1 Gino Simone, #2 Daniel Blackledge, and #12 Jeffrey Solomon are each averaging multiple catches per game. Karstetter is leading the way with 48.1 yards per game and three touchdown catches.

Like many teams trying to find an identity with their passing game, Washington State has a slew of players averaging one catch per game. Notable are running back Dwight Tardy, tight end #14 Tony Thompson, and receiver #80 Johnny Forzani, who has a 99-yard touchdown to his credit this year.

Notre Dame needed to make some changes to its secondary, and last week it did. This week, they become official on the depth chart. Kyle McCarthy, leading the team with five interceptions, moves from strong safety to free. Sergio Brown moves from nickelback to strong safety. Jamoris Slaughter, who struggled to break into the rotation at corner, will split time with Brown at safety, like the two did against Boston College.

Meanwhile, Harrison Smith is now the "OR" starter at SAM linebacker behind Darius Fleming. To me, that means he'll continue the role he played against BC as a hybrid linebacker/nickelback on passing downs.

With Washington State using at least three receivers, the Irish will have to counter with that nickel look quite a bit. Hopefully, Notre Dame will continue what it did last week and sub in a talented corner for Harrison Smith when needed.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Washington State Pass Defense

Jimmy Clausen Jimmy Clausen Jimmy Clausen. Clausen continues to impress, even if his average has dipped just below 300 yards per game. On a typical Saturday, Clausen will complete 21 of 33 passes (65.2 percent) for 292.9 yards and at least two touchdowns.

Clausen's favorite target by far is Golden Tate. Tate has not only kept his quarterback in the Heisman race, he's also starting to garner some attention for himself. Golden is averaging seven catches, 121 yards and a touchdown per game.

Coming in a distant second is Kyle Rudolph, whose production has taken a hit in October for a number of reasons. Rudolph is still averaging 41 yards and at least three catches per game. Robby Parris, Duval Kamara, and Armando Allen are each averaging at least two catches per game.

Notre Dame's receiving corps has really shown its depth even with Rudolph's struggles, the injuries to Parris and Michael Floyd, and the lingering effects of Shaq Evans's injuries. John Goodman has begun to establish himself as a reliable option on the outside, and Roby Toma has played his way into the mix at slot receiver.

Washington State's pass defense looks downright respectable compared to its run defense. The Cougars are giving up 284.1 yards per game in the air and have surrendered 13 passing touchdowns in seven games.

The Cougars have struggled to get to the quarterback, recording only seven sacks in as many contests. Ends #89 Travis Long and #96 Casey Hamlett lead the way with two apiece. WSU has had some success in the interception game, recording eight picks. Backup WILL linebacker #13 Myron Beck has two interceptions, including one that he ran back for a 67-yard touchdown.

Special Teams

Washington State kicker #18 Nico Grasu has struggled this year, converting only six of his 10 field goal attempts. He did convert on a 44-yarder against Stanford, though. For the Irish, Nick Tausch has now made 12 straight after missing the first attempt of his career.

#8 Reid Forrest punts for the Cougars. Forrest is a dark horse for team MVP, as he's averaging 43.8 yards per punt with a long of 65. Eight of his 49 punts have gone for 50 yards or more. Washington State's punt coverage team is giving up 12.2 yards per return. Ben Turk has struggled as Notre Dame's punter, and he's now listed as the "OR" option with Eric Maust on the depth chart. Turk is averaging just 35.7 yards per kick, compared to 39.8 for Maust. On top of that, it doesn't help that the Irish punt coverage team is giving up 17.7 yards per return.

Dwight Tardy and Carl Winston are the WSU kick returners. Tardy is averaging 18.6 yards per return with a long of 38. Winston is averaging 14.8 yards per return with a long of 24. David Ruffer has been impressive as the Irish kickoff specialist. He's averaging 62.2 yards per kick. But Notre Dame's kickoff team is surrendering 20.5 yards per return, giving opponents an average start on the 28.

Theo Riddick has become the primary kick returner for Notre Dame. He's averaging 23.8 yards per return with a long of 38. Nico Grasu also kicks off for the Cougars. He's averaging 59.6 yards per kick with three touchbacks in 12 tries. But Grasu's effort is somewhat wasted by a WSU kick coverage team giving up 26.9 yards per return. From that, Washington State opponents are getting an average start on the 35 yard line.

Jeffrey Solomon returns punts for Washington State. He's averaging a mere 6.4 yards per return with a long of 21. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's now averaging 7.8 yards per return, with a long of 23.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jonas Gray, Theo Riddick, Sergio Brown, Harrison Smith, Ben Turk, Golden Tate

Prediction

Notre Dame 40, Washington State 15

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 6: Boston College

Boston College Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

The Boston College offense is heavily run-oriented this year, averaging nearly 37 carries per game to 25 pass attempts. The workhorse of the Eagles run game is #2 Montel Harris. Harris is averaging 21 carries and 108 yards per game. He's also averaging 5.6 yards per carry and has 10 touchdowns on the season.

Harris is spelled by #29 Rolandan Finch and the diminuitive #1 Josh Haden. Haden is averaging eight carries and 30 yards per game, while Finch is averaging five carries and 22 yards per.

BC's starting quarterback, #15 Dave Schinskie, is not a threat with his legs. However, his backups #7 Justin Tuggle and #16 Mike Marscovetra are, so look for them to be sprinkled into the game against the Irish. Outside of Tuggle, Marscovetra, and the running backs, no Eagle has recorded a carry. But that doesn't mean BC won't pull out all the stops for this game.

Notre Dame's run defense plays right into Boston College's strengths. An inexperienced front seven for the Irish has given up 136.5 yards per game on the ground this year. All five of Notre Dame's starting defensive backs (counting nickel Sergio Brown) are among the top nine in tackles for the Irish. Kyle McCarthy leads the team with 54 tackles, 18 more than his nearest competition (fellow safety Harrison Smith), and 20 more than any member of the front seven (linebacker Brian Smith).

The Irish have been getting into the backfield, registering 40 tackles for loss in six games, but at this point most Irish fans would settle for more tackles within three yards of the line of scrimmage.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Boston College Run Defense

The Irish ground game has vastly improve this year, thanks largely to the hard, downhill running of Armando Allen and Robert Hughes. Allen is averaging 16 carries and 83 yards per game, while Hughes is adding six carries for 29 yards. Both are right around 5.0 yards per carry.

Not to be outdone, Golden Tate is averaging two carries and 16 yards per game, for 7.0 yards per carry. Jonas Gray, Theo Riddick, Dayne Crist, James Aldridge, and LepreCat-QB-of-the-week John Goodman have also made positive contributions to the Irish running game.

Boston College is giving up 117 yards per game on the ground. That's not a good number, but certainly not a bad one either. Freshman linebacker #40 Luke Kuechly leads BC with 69 tackles, more than double anyone else on the team. So look for the Irish to run their base counter plays quite a bit to keep this freshman off balance (and to simply keep him away from the play). Kuechly is also second on the team with six tackles for loss. The Eagles are averaging seven TFL per game, so they like to spend time in opponents' backfields.

Boston College Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

BC's primary quarterback is Dave Schinskie. As a freshman, he's lucky to be able to rely on a solid running game to relieve pressure. As a passer, Schinskie is completing 53.9 percent of his attempts. In an average game, Schinskie will connect on nine of 16 passes for 116 yards. In seven games, Schinskie has nine touchdowns against four interceptions.

Justin Tuggle has struggled as a passer, completing only 13 of his 37 pass attempts with three interceptions to counter four touchdowns. Mike Marscovetra has been slightly more successful in limited action, completing 13 of 20 attempts for two touchdowns and no interceptions.

BC's primary target in the passing game is senior wideout #18 Rich Gunnell. Gunnell is averaging three catches and 37 yards per game. If stats are any indicator, #10 Colin Lamond is the deep threat to Gunnell's possesion receiver. Lamond is averaging just over two catches per game, but for 53 yards per contest. Lamond also leads the team with four touchdowns. Tight end #81 Chris Pantale is averaging close to two catches per game, and he's joined by a slew of players averaging around one catch per game.

It will be interesting to see how the Irish pass defense - surrendering 283 yards per game - will play Boston College and their young quarterbacks. BC runs a base two WR/one RB/one TE offense with either a fullback or a second tight end. They have a variety of players who have caught passes this year, but in essence only two or three primary receivers. With the extra blockers the Eagles keeps in for the run game, it may be most beneficial for the Irish to blanket BC's top two receivers, try their best to get a pass rush with the front four, and accept whatever short checkdowns Schinskie et al. choose to take.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Boston College Pass Defense

Heisman talk aside, Jimmy Clausen has been virtually unstoppable this year. Clausen is a far cry from the nervous mess who threw four picks in last year's BC contest. The Irish QB is now completing close to 65 percent of his passes, with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions in six games. On an average day, Clausen will complete 20 of 32 passes for 301 yards.

Golden Tate has willingly and capably stepped into the role of primary receiver following Michael Floyd's injury. Tate is averaging close to six catches, 120 yards, and one touchdown per game. Kyle Rudolph, handcuffed in the USC game due to a need for extra blockers, is still averaging four catches and 46 yards per game.

Robby Parris was the surprise hero of the USC game, with 9 catches for 92 yards. But an awkward landing ended his afternoon. The good news is that Parris's status has gradually been improving from out to doubtful to questionable over the course of this week. Even if he doesn't see action in this game, don't be surprised if Parris is playing in San Antonio next week.

In Parris's absence, look for Duval Kamara or Shaq Evans to step up. Both are averaging one catch and 12 yards per game, but have the ability to do more. The running backs may also become more involved in the passing game. In six contests, Armando Allen, Robert Hughes, and Jonas Gray have combined for 21 catches.

Like Boston College's run defense, their pass defense has been decent but not great. The Eagles are giving up 212.1 passing yards per game. Despite the team's abililty to get into the backfield against the run, they only have 10 sacks on the year. Lineman #96 Kaleb Ramsey has two sacks, and eight other Eagles have single talleys in that category. BC has pulled in seven interceptions, led by free safety #45 Wes Davis and linebacker #26 Dominick LeGrande with two apiece.

Special Teams

Senior #83 Steve Aponavicius is back as BC's kicker, and he's converted all six of his field goal tries thus far. His longest has been for only 37 yards, but something still needs to be said for consistency. For the Irish, Nick Tausch has now made 10 straight after missing the first attempt of his career.

#46 Ryan Quigley is BC's punter. He's averaging "just" 40.9 yards per kick, but he does have a long of 58 and six total kicks of 50 yards or more. Quigley has also had plently of practice - his 45 punts work out to an average of more than six per game. Boston College's punt coverage team is giving up a very respectable 9.5 yards per return. Ben Turk is still Notre Dame's punter. After seven tries, his numbers are remarkably similar to Eric Maust's - an average of 38.3 yards per with a long of 48.

Running back #6 Jeff Smith is BC's primary kick returner. He's averaging 21.6 yards per return with a long of 42. David Ruffer has taken over as the Irish kickoff specialist. He averaged 62.2 yards per kick in his four tries last week. Notre Dame's kickoff team is giving up a mediocre 20.1 yards per return, giving opponents an average start on the 27.

Theo Riddick has become the primary kick returner for Notre Dame. He's averaging 23.7 yards per return with a long of 38. Ryan Quigley also kicks off for the Eagles, and with good reason. He's averaging 61.2 yards per kick with three touchbacks in 37 tries. UW's kickoff coverage team is giving up 20.5 yards per return, for an average start on the 26 yard line.

Rich Gunnell returns punts for Boston College. In 10 tries, he's averaging a very good 14.6 yards per return, including a 56-yard touchdown. Maybe the "posession reciever" label was premature. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's now averaging 7.8 yards per return, with a long of 23.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jimmy Clausen, Duval Kamara, Harrison Smith, Kapron Lewis-Moore, David Ruffer, Ben Turk

Prediction

Notre Dame 32, Boston College 24

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Thursday, October 01, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 5: Washington

Washington Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

Washington's leading rusher this year is running back #1 Chris Polk, averaging 21 carries and 79 yards per game. Quarterback #10 Jake Locker is also a threat with his legs, but perhaps not as much as opposing fans might expect. This year, Locker is averaging only eight carries and 18.5 yards per game. He does have two of the team's four rushing touchdowns on the year, though.

Washington's run game, averaging 108.2 yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, has been a pretty straightforward dose of Locker and Chris Polk. Outside of those two, wide receiver #82 Jordan Polk has one carry, and three backup tailbacks have split 13 carries.

Notre Dame's run defense - and its defense as a whole - has been a concern for the Irish faithful this year. ND is giving up 130.5 yards per game on the ground and 4.4 yards per carry. The problem isn't getting into the backfield, as the team is averaging close to seven tackles for loss per game. The problem is one of consistency - those TFL are often offset by significant runs.

The key for the Irish front seven is discipline. Locker may not be running much this year, but he still has the ability to. That means ends Kapron Lewis-Moore and Kerry Neal have to keep contain on the outside and tackles Ian Williams and Ethan Johnson have to clog holes on the inside. Then, once they do, the linebackers have to finish the job.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Washington Run Defense

How much has Notre Dame's run blocking improves this year? Even Dayne Crist is averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Not only that, but of all Notre Dame Running backs (yes, Golden Tate included), only Jonas Gray has a YPC average that can't match Crist. Armando Allen started running with a purpose in week one, Robert Hughes picked up his slack against Purdue, and strong, purposeful running has become the motto of the Irish backfield.

Allen is expected to return this week, but James Aldridge isn't. Allen is averaging 20 carries and 109 yards per game. Gray and Hughes are both averaging five to six carries and 20-plus yards per game. Sprinkle in some Theo Riddick and Tate out of the Wild Leprechaun, and you have the makings of a team averaging 158 yards per game on the ground.

If Armando Allen has any consolation for missing the Purdue game, it's that he gets to return against a Washington run defense giving up 195.8 yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry. Suprisingly, the three starting linebackers still lead Washington in tackles. Notably, #9 Donald Butler leads the team with 38 tackles, 4.5 for a loss.

Washington Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Jake Locker has improved commendably this year, raising his completion percentage to 58.1 with six touchdowns to three interceptions. In an average game, Locker will complete 20 of 34 passes for 250 yards.

Locker's top target is freshman wideout #3 James Johnson, who's averaging five catches and 55 yards per game. Locker has also done a very good job of distributing the ball, as after Johnson come six players averaging at least two catches per game. They include tailbacks Chris Polk and #23 Johri Fogerson; receivers #15 Jermaine Kearse, #11 D'Andre Goodwin, and #9 Devin Aguilar; and tight end #80 Kavario Middleton.

Notre Dame's pass defense has been disappointing this season. Perhaps it's the schemes - blitzes mean no safety help, so the corners have to play loose, opting for the sure tackle instead of the pass breakup. That's a discussion for those who know more about football than I do. Coach Weis mentioned that the team mixed in more Cover 2 against Purdue, but the Boilers still had a very effective day in the air.

The Irish have managed just six sacks on 138 opponents' pass attempts, led by Darius Fleming with two. Notre Dame has also picked off five passes, led by Kyle McCarthy with three.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Washington Pass Defense

Whispers of "Jimmy Heisman" have begun as Jimmy Clausen has gutted his way through the last six quarters of football and still managed to look good doing it. When healthy, Clausen's average game consists of 19 completions on 29 attempts for 280 yards and at least two touchdowns.

Dayne Crist has also been reasonably effective, completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 61 yards.

Golden Tate is the new leading receiver for the Irish, averaging six catches and 89.5 yards per game. Next comes Kyle Rudolph with 4 catches and 53.5 yards per game. After the big guns, Armando Allen, Duval Kamara, Robby Parris, Jonas Gray, and Robert Hughes are all averaging at least one catch per game.

Washington's pass defense is giving up 183.5 yards per game. That number looks respectable at first, until you realize that opponents are attempting less than 25 passes per game thanks to UW's porous run defense. Multiply the Washington D's 7.7 yards given up per pass attempt by Notre Dame's 32 attempts per game, and the number jumps to 250 yards. Multiply Washington's 12.9 yards per completion by ND's 21.5 completions per game, and the number jumps to 277.

To make matters worse for Huskies fans, Washington has only recorded four sacks and two interceptions so far this year. No UW player has more than a single tally in either category.

Special Teams

#17 Erik Folk is in his first season kicking field goals for the Huskies. Folk's lone miss on the year is from 42 yards, but he did make a 46-yard kick against USC. For the Irish, Nick Tausch is now five of six on the year, with a long of 46.

Notre Dame faces another strong-legged punter this week in Washington's #46 Will Mahan. Mahan is averaging 42.7 yards per punt, with five of his 15 boots sailing 50 yards or more. His long is 61. In addition, Washington's punt coverage is giving up a modest 10.2 yards per return. After inconsistent play from Eric Maust, Ben Turk will get a try as the Irish punter this week. Notre Dame has only allowed two punt returns this year, but they've gone for a combined 49 yards.

Washington's primary kick returner is #28 Quinton Richardson, who's averaging 21.8 yards per return with a long of 35. Nick Tausch getting stronger by the week, now averaging 62.7 yards per kickoff. But the Irish kickoff team hasn't lived up to its past performance, giving up an average of 22.1 yards per return. That gives opponents an average start on the 28 yard line.

Theo Riddick has become the primary kick returner for Notre Dame. He's averaging 24.9 yards per return with a long of 38. Erik Folk also kicks off for the Huskies. He's averaging 56.5 yards per kick with one touchback in 19 tries. UW's kickoff coverage team is giving up 19.8 yards per return, for an average start on the 33 yard line.

Johri Fogerson returns punts for Washington. He's only had two chances so far this season, one going for 14 yards and the other for 23. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's now averaging 9.2 yards per return, with a long of 23.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jimmy Clausen, Armando Allen, Kerry Neal, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ben Turk, Golden Tate

Prediction

Notre Dame 34, Washington 21

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 4: BEAT PURDUE!

An abbreviated preview for a hectic week.

The Boilers have a very effective run game, averaging 210 yards per on the ground, led by 140 per game from tailback #23 Ralph Bolden. However, after big days against Toledo and Oregon, the run game was held mostly in check by Northern Illinois.

Quarterback #14 Joey Elliot is one of those guys whose passes never hit the ground. He's completed 61% of his passes, but also has five picks already. Elliot also isn't afraid to run with the ball, averaging about five carries a game.

Purdue's base set is 3 WR, 1 RB, and 1 TE. Their pass game involves five passes a game to wideouts #17 Aaron Valentin and #8 Kevin Smith, with decent amounts of passes to running backs, tight ends, and other receivers mixed in.

The defense features SAM #24 Jason Werner and not much else. The defensive line does have two tackles over 300 pounds, but the rest of the front seven isn't very big. They also aren't very effective, giving up 181 rushing yards and over 250 passing yards per game.

Both kicker Carson Wiggs and punter Chris Summers have strong legs. Wiggs converted a 59-yarder in the opener, and his only miss this year is from 60.

This game will be a shootout if ND can't stop the run and can't get to the quarterback. But even without Michael Floyd, the Irish should still have enough guns to win it.

Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Purdue 25

Now, enjoy some Beat Purdue Memories.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 3: Michigan State

Michigan State Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

In the 90s, Michigan State was Wide Receiver U. This decade, their offense has become known for its steady stable of running backs. Even with the departure of Javon Ringer, MSU is still deep at the position.

The starter is small redshirt freshman #24 Caulton Ray, who is averaging 14 carries and 61 yards per game. Ray also has the team's lone rushing touchdown on the year. He is complemented by several backups, notably #22 Larry Caper, who is averaging six to seven carries and 33.5 yards per game.

The Spartans are employing a dual quarterback system this year, and of the two, #7 Keith Nichol is the runner. Nichol has had moderate success on the ground, averaging three to four carries and 17.5 yards per game.

Ray is averaging 4.4 yards per carry for the Spartans, and Caper and Nichol are both above five yards per carry. Michigan State uses a fullback, but no Spartan fullback has carried the ball yet. #82 Keshawn Martin has the team's lone carry made by a receiver, but don't rule out more by Martin and the other wideouts against Notre Dame.

After two weeks of seeing variations on the veer option, Notre Dame will finally face a traditional pro-style offense. That may be a blessing or a curse for a run defense that has been gashed to the tune of 171.5 yards per game so far.

Leading tacklers for the team continue to be safeties Kyle McCarthy and Harrison Smith, followed by linebackers Brian Smith and Toryan Smith. Injuries limited Toryan's playing time in the Michigan game, but he should be back to full strength now. He'll need another performance like the one he had against Nevada to keep these MSU rushers at bay. Toryan is leading the team in tackles for a loss with 3.5, followed by Brian Smith and Darius Fleming with 2.0 apiece.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Michigan State Run Defense

Last week, the Irish faithful saw a running performance perhaps unprecedented in the Weis era. It wasn't just Armando Allen's final numbers on the day, it was the way he ran - fighting and pushing for every yard he could get, refusing to go down until gang-tackled.

Allen is the definite starter on this team, averaging 18 carries and 105.5 yards per game. Jonas Gray has established himself as the top backup, but it remains to be seen how a fumble in the Michigan game will affect the sophomore's psyche. Gray is averaging six carries and 25 yards per game. Allen is averaging 5.9 yards per carry to Gray's 4.2.

James Aldridge is doubtful for Saturday's game, which likely means more of Robert Hughes and Bobby Burger at fullback. Hughes is averaging 3-4 carries and 10 yards per game, while Burger is used exclusively as a blocker - where he has excelled.

MSU's run defense has been stout this year, holding opponents to 64.0 yards per game. One may chalk that up to the quality of opponents the Spartans have faced thus far, but Michigan State has two things working in their favor. One, they held all-everything quarterback Dan LeFevour to just 0.8 yards per carry last week. And two, MSU's early success against the run has always been a sign of things to come, especially against the Irish.

The star of Michigan State's defense is middle linebacker #53 Greg Jones. Jones is the only MSU player with multiple tackles for a loss (he has 4.0 on the year), and he has almost twice as many overall tackles as any other member of the team.

Michigan State has undersized defensive ends, mostly weighing in under 250 pounds. So if the Irish call for more outside runs this week, it not only keeps the ball carrier away from Greg Jones (at least momentarily), it also lets Paul Duncan and Sam Young impose their decided weight advantage on those MSU ends.

Michigan State Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

Michigan State balances its effective running game with an efficient passing game. "Running quarterback" Keith Nichol has only completed 46.2 percent of his passes, but he does have three touchdowns. Starter #8 Kirk COusins, meanwhile, has completed a Clausen-esque 65.7 percent of his passes with four touchdowns.

On the average day, Cousins will complete 12 of 18 passes for 173.5 yards, while Nichol will complete six of 13 for 93 yards. Neither quarterback has thrown an interception on the season.

If Michigan State is to win back the title of Wide Receiver U, it will be on the shoulders of senior wideout #25 Blair White. White is averaging eight catches, two touchdowns, and 133.5 yards per game.

Not to be forgotten is White's opposite number, #3 BJ Cunningham. Cunningham has two touchdown receptions of his own, and is averaging at least three catches and 58.5 yards per game.

A trio of tight ends - #83 Charlie Gantt, #88 Brian Linthicum, and #80 Dion Sims - each have three catches and one touchdown on the year, so Notre Dame will have to look out for these tall threats in the red zone.

Michigan State have seven passing touchdowns to only one on the ground, so it's time for Notre Dame's hyped secondary to put up or shut up. The Irish are holding opponents to 197 passing yards per game, a respectable number. But it's the way that Notre Dame has done it that has caused some gnashing of teeth, as defensive backs seem to play soft in coverage to go for the sure tackle instead of trying to defend the pass itself.

Four Irish have registered sacks, including Brian and Toryan Smith, Darius Fleming, and John Ryan. Ryan has played well in 2009, hoping to erase his forgettable 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Michigan State Pass Defense

Jimmy Clausen is still an improved quarterback, even if he isn't going to hit on 90 percent of his passes every game. On an average day, the junior will connect on 20 of 30 passes for 325.5 yards and 3-4 touchdowns. Most importantly, Clausen has yet to throw a pass to the opposite jerseys this year.

Notre Dame's top receivers are Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, each of whom are averaging six catches per game. Tate is averaging 87 yards per game and has two touchdowns on the year. Floyd is averaging 160 yards per game and has four touchdowns on the year. The sophomore Floyd should be good to go this weekend after a gash from the Big House warning track required 15 stitches.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph is averaging 3-4 catches and 33.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Armando Allen hasn't been as much of a factor in the passing game this year as he has in the past. But that's probably due to the increase in passes to Tate and Floyd more than anything else. Allen is averaging 2-3 catches and 24.5 yards per game.

Michigan State's pass defense is giving up 225 yards per game. But that number is a bit misleading, as the Spartans gave up only 98 passing yards to Montana State, but 352 to Central Michigan.

A number of Spartans have recorded a sack this year, including Greg Jones, defensive tackle #99 Jerel Worthy, and ends #58 Trevor Anderson, #89 Colin Neely, and #54 David Rolf. MSU's lone interception was scored by cornerback #9 Jeremy Ware.

Special Teams

#14 Brett Swenson is Michigan State's placekicker for the fourth straight year, and for good reason. Swenson is perfect on the season, converting three field goals in the 30-39 yard range, plus one from 45 yards. Freshman Nick Tausch missed from 28 yards in his first collegiate attempt last week, but went on to convert 34- and 42-yarders.

MSU can be proud of its kickers, as Lou Groza candidate Brett Swenson is joined by Ray Guy candidate #18 Aaron Bates at punter. Bates is certainly making his case for the award, as he's averaging 48.9 yards per punt on the season. Four of Bates's seven punts have gone for 50 or more yards, including his long of 57. Michigan State is giving up 8.8 yards per punt return, a very respectable number. Notre Dame's Eric Maust is averaging 40.3 yards per punt with a long of 46, but has been inconsistent at times this year. Still, opponents have yet to be able to make a return on a Maust punt.

Michigan State's primary kick returner is #41 Glenn Winston, another member of their stable of running backs. Winston is averaging 23 yards per return with a long of 38. Nick Tausch is averaging 60.5 yards per kickoff. But the Irish kickoff team hasn't lived up to its past performance, giving up an average of 24.2 yards per return. That gives opponents an average start on the 34 yard line.

Theo Riddick and Barry Gallup have shared kick return duties for the Irish. Riddick has two returns, each for 23 yards. Gallup has one return for 52 yards and another for 25. Kickoff duties for Michigan State have been split between Brett Swenson and #4 Dan Conroy. Both are averaging about 64 yards per kick, and Conroy has the lone touchback between them. MSU is giving up 22.4 yards per kick return, leaving opponents with an average starting field position around the 28 yard line.

Keshawn Martin returns punts for the Spartans. He's averaging 12.2 yards per return with a long of 26. Golden Tate is Notre Dame's punt returner. He's only had one chance so far this year, though, and it went for -2 yards.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Armando Allen, Michael Floyd, Toryan Smith, Brian Smith, Eric Maust, Barry Gallup

Prediction

Notre Dame 34, Michigan State 23

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 2: Michigan

Michigan Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

In the opener against Western Michigan, Wolverines quarterbacks kept the ball on 23 run attempts and handed off on 27. That's a pretty even mix, especially considering that 22 of those 23 keepers were made by freshmen quarterbacks #5 Tate Forcier and #16 Denard Robinson. Forcier, the starter, ran 11 times for 37 yards and Robinson 11 for 74 yards and a touchdown.

Only one carry came from a receiver, as #19 Kelvin Grady went for 11 yards. This is a contrast from the Florida and Missouri spreads, which liberally hand off to their slot receivers. However, it's possible that Michigan was simply saving those plays for bigger games - like this week's.

Running back #23 Carlos Brown had 10 carries for 54 yards, while fellow backs #20 Michael Shaw and #2 Vincent Smith had 7 for 34 and 6 for 23 respectively. So the Wolverines like to mix in all their capable backs.

Somewhat surprisingly, Michigan mainstay #24 Kevin Grady has essentially fallen to fourth string, seeing only two carries for seven yards. On one hand, it's not surprising to see the 230 lb Grady passed over in favor of smaller, quicker backs in the spread offense. But on the other hand, Rich Rodriguez did have success with bruising fullbacks like Owen Schmitt at West Virginia.

Notre Dame's went the bend-don't-break route against Nevada's run game in week 1, giving up 153 rushing yards and letting safeties Kyle McCarthy and Harrison Smith lead the team in tackles. Middle linebacker Toryan Smith was right behind them, and he'll have another chance to play the role of run-stuffer against the Wolverines.

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Michigan Run Defense

Armando Allen and Jonas Gray both had efficient games against Nevada, averaging 4.8 and 5.6 yards respectively. Allen ran 15 times for 72 yards, while Gray got his fair share of touches with 9 carries for 50 yards.

It will be interesting to see how Notre Dame handles the fullback situation with James Aldridge out. Aldridge ran rather effectively before leaving the Nevada game with a shoulder injury. Will Notre Dame turn the fullback role over to the untested Steve Paskorz? Will they give Robert Hughes a crash course at the position? Or will they scrap the fullback entirely in favor of one-back sets and formations using H-back Bobby Burger?

The Wolverines were in Western Michigan's backfield all day, holding the Broncos to just 38 rushing yards. Michigan returns four starters to its front seven, which runs a hybrid 3-4 defense with a linebacker that can also be used as a 4-3 defensive end.

The Michigan D is led by end #55 Brandon Graham and middle linebacker #45 Obi Ezeh. Graham was held in check by the Broncos, but Ezeh had a forced fumble and six tackles, one and a half for a loss. Outside linebacker #3 Stevie Brown and "Quick" linebacker #58 Brandon Herron combined for 9 tackles in the game.

Michigan Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

For the most part, the spread is a fairly balanced offense. So, despite the fact that Tate Forcier was making his college debut, he still had 20 pass attempts. Forcier completed 13 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns, a pretty efficient day. Denard Robinson completed two of the four passes he attempted, for 18 yards. For the most part, it looks at this point like Forcier is the better overall quarterback, and track champion Robinson is just out for his running ability. But Robinson will try the ocassional short pass to keep defenses in check.

Wideout #21 Junior Hemingway was Forcier's top target in week 1, hauling in five catches, two of them touchdowns, for 103 yards. Tight end #86 Kevin Koger, veteran receiver #13 Greg Mathews, and Kelvin Grady also had multiple catches. If one game is any indication, Hemingway will be the deep threat, with Koger, Matthews, and Grady playing safety valves for their young quarterback.

Notre Dame used a talented secondary and efficient blitzing to hold Nevada to an 18 percent success rate on third down and 153 passing yards overall. The Irish corners continue to play soft in man coverage, seemingly preferring a catch and a sure tackle to a big gain on an attempted (and failed) pass breakup. Like last week, Notre Dame's safeties and blitzers can't get too greedy and leave the corners out on islands too often.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Michigan Pass Defense

Jimmy Clausen has been near perfect in his last two starts against the WAC, and now he'll get to try his luck against the Big 10. In the season opener, Clausen was an efficient 15 for 18 for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Clausen will work to four primary targets this year, wideouts Michael Floyd and Golden Tate, tight end Kyle Rudolph, and back Armando Allen. Going against a tougher defense this week, Clausen's goal should be avoiding bad habits from last year, notably not forcing the ball to Kyle Rudolph in coverage.

Michigan's secondary is a cause for concern. Despite two interceptions, the Wolverines did allow Western Michigan to complete almost 60 percent of its passes for 263 yards. Corner #6 Donovan Warren had one of those interceptions, and also led Michigan with 6.5 tackles in the opener.

But don't assume that Michigan's thin secondary means that Notre Dame will come out in four- and five-wide sets. Against Nevada, the Irish mostly utilized traditional two- and three-wide sets to help protect Jimmy Clausen, and they still had success through the air.

Special Teams

After three years on the practice squad, #92 Jason Olesnavage has earned a spot as Michigan's starting placekicker. In the opener, Olesnavage hit from 44 yards in his only field goal attempt. Freshman Nick Tausch of Notre Dame did not attempt a field goal last week, but he did chip in all five extra point attempts.

To recap, Michigan's quarterback is 6'1", 188; its placekicker is 6'5", 213; and punter #41 Zoltan Mesko is 6'5", 231. Mesko punted five times in the Western Michigan game, a number that tarnishes Michigan's offensive numbers a bit. Of course, maybe the Wolverines just wanted to show off his powerful leg, one that averaged 47.2 yards per punt in the game with a long of 66. In the "it's only one game" category, Michigan gave up only 3 yards per punt return. Notre Dame's Eric Maust punted three times last week with a long of 43 yards and an average of 40.7. Nevada was not able to make a return.

Michigan's kick returners are backup receivers #22 Darryl Stonum and #9 Martavious Odoms. Each had one return for 20 yards last week. Nick Tausch averaged 58.5 yards per kick last week, even including a kick where he lost his footing. The Irish gave up 17.6 yards per return, giving opponents an average start around the 30.

Notre Dame's Theo Riddick had the team's lone kick return last week, for 23 yards. It remains to be seen who will replace James Aldridge next to Riddick this week.. Michigan returns kickoff specialist #43 Bryan Wright. Wright averaged 66.5 yards per kick with one touchback in week 1. Michigan gave up 22.2 yards per kick return. That's an average start on the 26 yard line.

Greg Mathews returns punts for the Wolverines. He's had two returns in 2009, one for zero yards and one for 16. Returning punts for the Irish will be either Golden Tate or Armando Allen. In Tate's lone chance last week, he had a -2 yard return.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jimmy Clausen, Armando Allen, Toryan Smith, Brian Smith, Nick Tausch, Theo Riddick

Prediction

Notre Dame 21, Michigan 16

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Notre Dame Football 2009
Issue 1: Nevada

Nevada Run Offense vs. Notre Dame Run Defense

Much has been made of quarterback 10 Colin Kaepernick's running ability, and the 1298 rushing yards he accumulated in 2008. But while Kaepernick led the team in rushing touchdowns, he was only second on the team in yards to running back 34 Vai Taua.

Kaepernick and Taua run a two-man option rushing attack out of Nevada's pistol formation. Last year, Taua averaged 18 carries and 117 yards per game, while Kaepernick added 11 carries and 98 yards per game (sacks excluded).

The pistol is a one-back formation, and in fact Nevada does not list any fullbacks on its roster. Also, don't confuse the pistol with the spread attacks run at places like Florida or Missouri. While the Wolf Pack will ocassionally hand the ball off to one of its three wideouts, receiver runs are not a primary part of its game. Last year, no Nevada wide receiver had more than seven rushes on the season.

Notre Dame's front seven returns only three starters this season. However, maybe that's a good thing, as the Irish run defense gave up 134 yards per game in 2008. The line and linebackers are an exciting group of players, each with an interesting story to tell. Brian Smith and Kerry Neal are now the steady leaders of the group. Ethan Johnson and Darius Fleming return after breakout freshman campaigns. Ian Williams and Toryan Smith are out for redemption. And Kapron Lewis-Moore, Steve Filer, and Manti Te'o are itching to make an impact in their college debuts.

Defending the option calls for discipline on the outside and a good push on the inside. That will take patience from Lewis-Moore and converted defensive end Fleming. It will also be an excellent chance for Johnson to prove the move from end to defensive tackle was wise, and for Williams and Toryan Smith that they belong with the first team.

The option will also require run support from the safeties, and neither Kyle McCarthy nor Harrison Smith are afraid to mix it up in the box. How else would McCarthy lead the team in tackles in 2008 and Smith volunteer to play outside linebacker?

Notre Dame Run Offense vs. Nevada Run Defense

Armando Allen is the number one back outright this year, and now it's his job to prove he earned that right. Allen averaged 10 carries per game and 4.4 yards per carry in 2008 - numbers that Irish fans both hope will improve in 2009. Backing up Allen will be sophomore Jonas Gray, who averaged 4.3 yards per carry in limited playing time last year, but who also had fumble trouble in his introduction to college ball. Behind Allen and Gray is Robert Hughes, who has fallen out of his coach's good graces for playing like a small back despite weighing in at 234 lbs.

James Aldridge has been moved to fullback, and it will be interesting to see how he is used this season. The fullback has not seen many touches in Notre Dame's offense these past few years, but that may simply be due to the fact that the Irish haven't had an offensive threat at that position. Also, if Gray and Hughes falter early this year, don't be surprised to see Aldridge back in a tailback when Allen comes out of the game.

Now is the time for the Irish to improve their mediocre run game. Depth and experience are no longer issues at running back or along the offensive line. So if the talent is there, it's time for it to shine.

Nevada's front seven features three seniors and two juniors, and their defense as a whole held opponents to 3.1 yards per carry and 88 yards per game. Those are fairly impressive numbers, no matter who you're facing.

The Wolf Pack return three players who had double-digit tackles for a loss in 2008. Most notable is sophomore SAM linebacker 52 James-Michael Johnson, who registered 12.5 TFL in his freshman campaign. Johnson will look to lead Nevada's linebacking corps, as he is the lone returning starter in that unit.

Nevada Pass Offense vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense

For all that is made of Colin Kaepernick's running ability, his passing also deserves some recognition. A 54.3 percent completion rate and 219 yards per game by themselves won't win a Heisman Trophy, but a 22 to 7 touchdown-to-interception ratio is certainly impressive. On average in 2008, Kaepernick completed 16 of 29 passes per game.

Nevada primarily utilizes three wideouts, but of their top three receivers in 2008 only one returns in 2009. 14 Chris Wellington averaged three catches and 48.6 yards per game while also grabbing six touchdowns on the year. 82 Tray Session only caught one pass in 2008, while 18 Brandon Wimberly will make his collegiate debut after redshirting last year.

Running back Vai Taua averaged two catches and 18.7 yards per game in 2008, while tight end 85 Virgil Green - a returning starter - averaged one catch and 12.6 yards. In otherwords, Nevada will go to checkdown options on ocassion, but the three wide receivers are Colin Kaepernick's main targets.

This season, Notre Dame will march out its most talented secondary in years. Robert Blanton gets the nod at one starting cornerback position, while the other will be a gametime decision between Raeshon McNeil and Darrin Walls. The indecision there comes from limited practice time for Walls due to a mild hamstring injury. But either player can fill the role admirably, as can any of their backups.

As mentioned above, both safeties are more than willing to help in run support. But they can't get greedy, or else Nevada will burn them over the top.

It remains to be seen how effective Notre Dame's pass rush will be, or how much pressure they'll try to get on Kaepernick. With an inexperienced front, the Irish may instead try to contain the run and let the defensive backs worry about the passing game.

Notre Dame Pass Offense vs. Nevada Pass Defense

When Jimmy Clausen let go of the ball in 2008, it didn't hit the ground much. Clausen completed 60.9 percent of his passes last year, 64.8 if you count his 17 interceptions. So which quarterback will the Irish get this year? The mid-November Clausen who forced passes into triple coverage? Or the December version who threw a "perfect game" in the Hawaii Bowl? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.

Clausen's 2008 receivers can be divided into three tiers: those who caught four or more passes per game (Golden Tate, Armando Allen, Michael Floyd), those who caught three per game (David Grimes), and those who caught one to two passes per game (Kyle Rudolph, Duval Kamara, Robert Hughes, Robby Parris).

Two questions arise from this list. One, who will move up to Grimes's tier? Rudolph, Kamara, and Parris are obvious choices, but don't count out any of the freshman, either. Two, who besides Armando Allen will catch passes out of the backfield? James Aldridge has only 11 career receptions, and Jonas Gray was not thrown to last year. Will one of them see more screens come their way in 2009, or will Hughes get to see the field just for this purpose?

The stars of Nevada's defense are its ends. 99 Kevin Basped had 18.5 TFL, 10 sacks, and three forced fumbles last year, while 55 Dontay Moch had 17.5, 11.5, and 4. Both are back to lead a veteran defensive line this year.

It's a good thing Nevada has such great pass rushers, because when the opposing quarterback did get the ball off, the results weren't pretty. The Wolf Pack gave up 311 passing yards per game in 2008. Its top two tacklers were both defensive backs, and only one of those two - free safety 49 Jonathon Amaya - returns this year. Amaya also led the Wolf Pack with four interceptions in 2008, followed by 2009's strong safety 25 Mo Harvey with three.

To prey on Nevada's defensive weaknesses, the Irish should employ a steady diet of screens (and draws) and deep passes. Fortunately, these are things the Irish excelled at in 2008. Notre Dame can also choose to spread Nevada's secondary thin with its bevy of talented receivers, or aid Jimmy Clausen and the line by keeping tight ends in to protect against the pass rush.

Special Teams

Nevada's placekicker is junior college transfer 46 Ricky Drake. Notre Dame's placekicker is freshman Nick Tausch, who won the job impressively in fall practice. Stats are not available for either player.

48 Brad Langley returns as Nevada's punter. In 2008, he averaged 44.0 yards per punt with a long of 77. How do mid-majors continue to land strong legs like this? Or is it just the thin mountain air and turf fields? Last season, the Wolf Pack punt coverage team gave up 9.2 yards per return, a very respectable number. Notre Dame returns punter Eric Maust as a scholarship player after averaging 41.1 yards per punt in 2008 with a long of 54. Last year, the Irish punt coverage team was outstanding, holding opponents to just 6.0 yards per punt return.

Nevada's kick returners are slated to be a combination of 24 Brandon Fragger, 5 Mike Ball, and Brandon Wimberley Of the trio, only Fragger returned kicks in 2008, averaging 18.2 yards with a long of 26. Nick Tausch will also kickoff for the Irish. He has been praised not for his ability to boot the ball out of the endzone, but for his hang time, which allows Notre Dame's fantastic kick coverage team a chance to get down the field. Last year, that kick coverage team gave up just 16.5 yards per return.

Notre Dame's choices for kick returner may be a bit of a surprise. James Aldridge and freshman halfback Theo Riddick start the year at that position. Last year, Aldridge returned one kick for 15 yards. Behind Aldridge and Riddick on the depth chart are freshman Shaquelle Evans and senior Barry Gallup. Nevada's kickoff specialist will be either Ricky Drake or sophomore 39 Nick Rhodes. Like Drake, Rhodes has yet to see field action for the Wolf Pack. In 2008, Nevada's kickoff coverage was pedestrian, giving up 26.1 yards per return.

The Wolf Pack have three players vying for punt return duty: 5 Thaddeus Brown, Vai Taua, and 24 Khalid Wooten. None of the three returned punts in 2008. Returning punts for the Irish will be either Golden Tate or Armando Allen. Tate averaged 8.3 yards per return in 2008, with a long of 42. Allen had an average of 9.4 with a long of just 22, but he did add a 96-yard kickoff return in the Hawaii Bowl.

Notre Dame Players to Watch

Jimmy Clausen, Armando Allen, Toryan Smith, Kapron Lewis-Moore, Nick Tausch, and Theo Riddick

Prediction

Notre Dame 38, Nevada 24