Sunday, July 20, 2008

Cleveland Indians: Quick & Dirty Second Half Projections

The Hardball Times recently released a tool that uses the Marcels projection system to create quick-and-dirty projections of a player's performance over the rest of 2008. Picking up on what's already been done for the Mets and Brewers, here's what the tool had to say about the Indians.

Hitters

The Marcels are best for rate stats, such as batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Here, I measure improvement or regression in terms of the difference between a player's OPS-to-date and their "balance" OPS, or their projected OPS from now until the end of the year. This is labeled as OPS_delta.

Massive Improvement

(> 3 Standard Deviations)
Josh Barfield
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008366000000000000
2008 (proj balance)66131123337127200.2640.3080.3874810.6950.695
2008 (proj total)69137129337127200.2520.2940.3694810.663


This one really isn't fair, since Barfield will obviously improve on his 0-for-6 start. Unfortunately, .695 and .663 are still below league-average OPSs.

Much Improvement

(> 1 Standard Deviation)
Jorge Velandia
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
20081016153100140.20.250.267400.517
2008 (proj balance)66105942550310180.2660.3420.424010.7620.245
2008 (proj total)761211092860311220.2570.3290.3994410.729


Travis Hafner
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008461881573490423440.2170.3320.355540.682
2008 (proj balance)66268226611411238440.2710.3840.49711230.8820.2
2008 (proj total)112456383952311661880.2490.360.43716770.797


I can't guarantee all the Jorge Velandia fans out there that he'll play 66 games over the rest of the season. But I can back Marcel's other guarantee - that Travis Hafner, when healthy, will greatly improve over what he's done so far.

Some Improvement

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Andy Marte
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008339082153014230.1830.230.2562110.486
2008 (proj balance)6617916438101413310.2310.2950.3766220.6720.186
2008 (proj total)9926924653131517540.2150.2710.3368330.607


Asdrubal Cabrera
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008531891613070122410.1860.2880.2484010.536
2008 (proj balance)6623420851111424360.2480.3310.3697720.70.164
2008 (proj total)11942336981181546770.2210.3090.31611730.625


Victor Martinez
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
20085421719855110016230.2780.3350.3336610.668
2008 (proj balance)6626323669150725290.2940.3680.44910620.8170.149
2008 (proj total)120480434124260741520.2860.3520.39617230.748


Franklin Gutierrez
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
20087623121446101310500.2150.2630.3136740.576
2008 (proj balance)6619918547101513380.2530.3070.47420.7070.131
2008 (proj total)14243039993202823880.2330.2820.35314160.635


Ryan Garko
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
20088432829170110725470.2410.320.35110290.671
2008 (proj balance)6625623063120819370.2730.3470.43410070.7810.11
2008 (proj total)1505845211332301544840.2550.330.387202160.718


Michael Aubrey
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008930275002330.1850.2670.4071100.674
2008 (proj balance)662181965091720300.2560.3310.4188220.7490.075
2008 (proj total)752482235591923330.2470.3230.4179320.74


David Dellucci
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
20087724822451130817530.2280.30.3938860.692
2008 (proj balance)6621118846102820390.2460.3290.4378230.7660.074
2008 (proj total)143459412972321637920.2360.3120.41317090.725


Shin-Soo Choo
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008371311112681316290.2340.3410.4054520.746
2008 (proj balance)6623220553132524420.260.3450.4198630.7640.018
2008 (proj total)10336331679213840710.2510.3420.41413150.756


There are positives and negatives to be taken away from this group. First, Shin-Soo Choo, who has been hitting well (especially compared to his teammates), is actually due for a minor improvement over the rest of the season. Second, Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, and David Dellucci are all due to hit at an above-league-average clip in the second half. That's just what this team needs, and what those players need individually. Now the negatives: yes, Andy Marte, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Franklin Gutierrez are due for some improvement. But that still won't make their final numbers very pretty.

Exactly the Same


Jhonny Peralta
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
200888372345902511623720.2610.3070.47816500.785
2008 (proj balance)6627725168151924530.270.3370.44711310.7850
2008 (proj total)15464959615840225471250.2650.3180.46527810.783


Earlier this year, I noticed that Jhonny Peralta's career slash stats were almost exactly league-average. Peralta once again will live up to that Mr. Average billing; he'll see an increase in his OPB but a slight dropoff in his slugging percentage.

Some Regression

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Kelly Shoppach
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
20085818616841120711610.2440.310.447450.75
2008 (proj balance)6621019348120715530.2510.3130.4268230.739-0.011
2008 (proj total)1243963618924014261140.2480.310.43315680.743


Jamey Carroll
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008682482135774020380.2680.350.3387270.688
2008 (proj balance)662392135492222310.2540.3340.3427330.676-0.012
2008 (proj total)134487426111166242690.2610.3360.34145100.676


Ben Francisco
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
20086426623970190822410.2930.3570.47311320.83
2008 (proj balance)6627224870171823420.2810.3460.45511320.801-0.029
2008 (proj total)1305384871403611645830.2870.350.46422640.814


Grady Sizemore
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008924263661002042353720.2730.3740.53819760.912
2008 (proj balance)66303264751631234490.2850.3770.50113350.878-0.034
2008 (proj total)15872963017536735871210.2780.3750.523330110.897


Casey Blake
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
200888345305862301030640.2820.360.45613970.815
2008 (proj balance)6625723260141821440.2610.3330.43210040.765-0.05
2008 (proj total)15460253714637118511080.2730.3460.446239110.792


Most Indians fans know that these are the guys who are having good years. Unfortunately, that party's about to end for some. The good news is that the dropoff is slight. For most guys, Marcel predicts most of the regression to come from slugging percentage, not on base. For example, Marcel says Grady Size is due for a 0.003 decline in OBP but a 0.037 drop in SLG. This is because Marcel is an imperfect model (no offense, of course, because it wasn't meant to be perfect) based on past performance. Grady's never hit 23 HR before the break before, and that's taken into account for his second-half performance. Meanwhile, those urging the Indians to sell high on Casey Blake may finally have their statistical proof.

Much Regression


Sal Fasano
YearGPAABH2B3BHRBBKBAOBPSLGTBHBPOPSOPS_delta
2008415135100250.3850.4670.462600.928
2008 (proj balance)6624622654111815540.2390.30.3968950.696-0.232
2008 (proj total)7026123959121817590.2470.310.3999550.709


Sorry Sal, but we knew you couldn't keep it up for that much longer.

Pitchers

The Marcel projections returned two useful rate stats - ERA and WHIP. I added these two together to create a Total_delta for each pitcher.

Massive Improvement

(> 3 Standard Deviations)
Brian Slocum
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
200820272810141526
2008 (proj balance)104.48132102.51001-22.52-1.5-24.02
2008 (proj total)3017.893113113.42527


Brian Slocum was the curve-wrecker on this one. Then again, 2 IP with 6 ER to date will do that for you.

Much Improvement

(>1 Standard Deviation)
Tom Mastny
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
20086113.018.3139802.5247312
2008 (proj balance)414.39686301.933213-8.62-0.59-9.21
2008 (proj total)1029.521421151102.2979415


Like Slocum, Tom Mastny's numbers were affected by his small sample size. (Unlike Slocum, Mastny also had that ugly emergency start to his credit.)

Some Improvement

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Jeremy Sowers
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
2008997.5244.366261911.922141037
2008 (proj balance)664.733037191111.61145516-2.79-0.31-3.1
2008 (proj total)15156.3974103453021.793591553


Rafael Betancourt
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
200842064248421401.48185828
2008 (proj balance)2903.58292926911.32126411-2.42-0.16-2.58
2008 (proj total)7105.027177682311.413111239


Juan Rincon
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
20082406.112833201621.75133519
2008 (proj balance)1604.17192116811.579029-1.94-0.18-2.12
2008 (proj total)4005.324754362431.68223728


Paul Byrd
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
200818185.47102121441751.354352362
2008 (proj balance)12124.766982351531.42951137-0.710.05-0.66
2008 (proj total)30305.18171203793281.377303499


Jensen Lewis
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
20082404.4134.738261921.64160417
2008 (proj balance)1603.942425201011.46109210-0.47-0.18-0.65
2008 (proj total)4004.225863462931.57269627


Edward Mujica
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
20081304.8516.71512411.146939
2008 (proj balance)904.111118301.284715-0.750.14-0.61
2008 (proj total)2204.55282620711.19116414


Those who have watched Jeremy Sowers' last two starts know he's already started to improve. Meanwhile, it's nice to see Rafael Betancourt, Paul Byrd, and Jensen Lewis - the poster children for regression on the pitching staff in 2008 - at least have some room for improvement over the rest of the year.

Some Regression

(< 1 Standard Deviation)
Rafael Perez
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
20084303.1642.740431611.31177515
2008 (proj balance)2903.652926261011.241203120.49-0.070.42
2008 (proj total)7203.367266692621.28297827


Aaron Laffey
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
200815153.6189.791412991.343841036
2008 (proj balance)10104.216160372041.312616280.6-0.030.57
2008 (proj total)25253.851511517849131.336451664


Fausto Carmona
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
200810103.15854233831.59255120
2008 (proj balance)773.943939261621.381733170.84-0.210.63
2008 (proj total)17173.449793495451.5428437


Jake Westbrook
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
2008553.1134.73319711.15139512
2008 (proj balance)334.01242413711.3942110.90.151.05
2008 (proj total)883.485857321421.21233723


Masa Kobayashi
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
20084203.0544.340281111.15182515
2008 (proj balance)2904.183029201011.281243141.130.131.26
2008 (proj total)7103.517469482121.2306829


Cliff Lee
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
200818182.31124.71091062001.03488532
2008 (proj balance)12123.668579582221.193318341.350.161.51
2008 (proj total)30302.852091881644221.18191366


Matt Ginter
YearGGSERAIPHitKBBHBPWHIPBFPHRERERA_deltaWHIP_deltaTotal_Delta
20081105550012000
2008 (proj balance)114.11332101.2814024.110.284.39
2008 (proj total)221.66887101.113402


Again, most Indians fans would agree that these are the pitchers who had good first halves. Rafael Perez, Aaron Laffey, and Fausto Carmona are all due to see their ERAs increase but their WHIPs decrease. I'm not sure what to make of that, other than the fact that neither is a perfect stat to indicate a pitcher's overall performance. Meanwhile, predictably, Cliff Lee is due for some regression to the mean. Still, I doubt anyone will be upset if he finishes with a 2.85 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The Milwaukee Brewers traded a few prospects for Indians ace C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia will pitch every fifth day, and spend the other four fighting Prince Fielder for the last pork chop. Sabathia will suit up as soon as the team makes him a jersey out of the infield tarp.

A-Rod's wife has filed for a divorce, claiming that Rodriguez has abandoned her, and she deserves to be treated better than the Yankees in October.

41-year-old Dara Torres earned a spot in Beijing by winning the 50-meter freestyle at the U.S. Olympic Trials. The veteran swimmer enjoys the pool because she actually emerges looking less wrinkled.

And Floyd Mayweather accused HBO's boxing analysts of being racist. Because clearly, they favor all the white boxers. I'm sorry, that's white boxer.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Elton Brand has agreed to a five-year, $82 million deal with the 76ers. Philadelphia fans are so excited with the signing they've agreed to wait a full two days before booing him.

Former NFL player Brian Bosworth recently rescued a Calgary woman from an auto accident. Bosworth saved the woman after first mistaking the car wreck for his career.

Yankees radio announcer John Sterling is being called out for routinely dipping his finger into the ice cream barrel in the stadium's press room. Authorities originally suspected Alex Rodriguez since the ice cream tasted like Madonna.

And NBC Universal will present an unprecedented 3,600 hours of Beijing Olympic Games coverage. The amount of coverage isn't just unprecedented, it's also unsolicited and unwanted. And if that's not enough to rile Americans, at least 200 of the hours will be encased in lead.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

A professional soccer referee had to be helped off the field after showing up to work drunk. And thus ends John Daly's summer job.

Cleveland snapped their ten game losing streak. If the Indians kept playing like that, their only chance of winning anything would be opening a casino.

West Point grad Caleb Campbell is hoping to make the transition from the U.S. Army to the Detroit Lions. It should be a natural fit since neither organization has won anything lately.

The Milwaukee Bucks have agreed to sign center Andrew Bogut to a five-year, $72.5 million extension. The contract makes Bogut the NBA's highest paid white guy outside of an owner's box.

And Michael Vick is currently busy writing his life story. In fact, he's already on chapter 11.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The demolition of Tiger Stadium's walls and seating areas has begun. Construction workers were happy to report that the stadium fell apart almost as quickly as Detroit's starting rotation.

The FBI is currently investigating the 2006 Washington Nationals signing of shortstop Esmailyn Gonzalez. It's nice to hear the Bureau has wrapped up all of the country's security concerns and can now move onto the issues that are really troubling America.

The Golden State Warriors have acquired free agent Corey Maggette, the Los Angeles Clippers' scoring leader. Of course, being the top scorer on the Clippers is like being the smartest woman on The View.

New England Patriots running back Kevin Faulk has pleaded no contest to drug charges after being caught with marijuana at a Li'l Wayne concert. It's hard to say what's more embarrassing: getting busted by the police or having the world know you're a fan of Li'L Wayne.

And the Baltimore Ravens are reportedly interested in quarterback Brett Favre, and will sign him once they buy a time machine.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The New York Yankees have stumbled so awkwardly into the All-Star break that next year they'll be running in Belmont.

Billy Packer's run with CBS has finally come to an end. This is one Packer that will stay retired.

A federal judge has sided with the Washington Redskins in a lawsuit regarding the team's name. Sadly, it's the first major victory the franchise has enjoyed since 1991.

Former NFL special teams star Vai Sikahema knocked out Jose Canseco in their celebrity boxing match. Sikahema tried to knock Canseco senseless, but Mother Nature beat him to it.

And three teams appear to be interested in Bucs quarterback Chris Simms. Two of them are the Chicago Bears.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Stephon Marbury has gotten a tattoo of his sneaker logo on his left temple. It's nice to hear that he's finally found a use for his head.

Alex Rodriquez has revealed that his iPod contains an eclectic mix of Frank Sinatra, 50 Cent, Sting and Tom Petty. Because he gets to hear enough Madonna at home.

Barry Bonds said that not playing baseball is like a huge void. That's fine – his bulbous head should fill it. Bonds' agent says there is little chance the slugger will play this year. So the biggest cheater in California remains Wesley Snipes.

And a baseball cap worn by Yankees slugger Babe Ruth has been auctioned for a record $328,000. There was no need to authenticate the hat since it still smells like mustard and bourbon.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The American League won the All-Star Game again. Their winning streak is getting to be so long, the '73 Dolphins are starting to talk smack.

The National League committed four errors - five if you count their decision to play Dan Uggla at second base.

Uggla committed three errors over the course of the game. Good thing he stopped there. One more and the Astros would have traded for him.

The game took a record-breaking four hours and 50 minutes to complete, prompting both teams to use all of their pitchers. Things got so desperate that when the game ended, Whitey Ford was warming up in the bullpen.

And Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig insists a tie was not a possibility despite the length of the game. And if you can't trust a former used-car dealer, who can you trust?

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Dolphins quarterback Josh McCown needed six stitches on the index finger of his throwing hand after mishandling a chainsaw. On the positive side, McCown has had plenty of practice getting cut.

Injured Chinese superstar Yao Ming has returned to the hardcourt, since air pollution is even worse when you're two feet taller. Yao said he was hungry to get back. And in an hour he'll be hungry again.

Double-amputee sprinter Oscar Pistorius fell short of the 400-meter qualifying time he needed to make the Olympics. Ironically Pistorius appeared to be in great shape until the last two legs of the race.

And the Packers have filed tampering charges against the Vikings alleging the team made inappropriate contact with Brett Favre. Favre has been asked demonstrate exactly where on the doll the Vikings touched him.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Baseball News: Golden Spikes, Team USA, Samardzija, Manship, Ty Cobb

  • From a list of five finalists, all first round draft picks, Florida State catcher Buster Posey won the 2008 Golden Spikes Award as the country's top amateur player. Baseball America, The College Baseball Blog, and MLB.com have more coverage.

  • USA Baseball announced the Olympic team roster on Wednesday. Again, Baseball America, The College Baseball Blog, and MLB.com have coverage.

  • Thanks to an injury on the parent club, Jeff Samardzija has moved up to AAA, and he's arguably pitching better than he did at AA. Samardzija has struggled to get strike outs as a pro, but he had nine K's in his last outing. Here's a trio of local articles on The Shark.
  • Coincidentally, for the past few weeks Jeff Manship has been pitching on the same day as Samardzija. Manship was moved up to AA and appears to be struggling. However, on closer look, Manship has given up 11 runs in two starts against Portland, and only seven runs in his four other starts.

  • Finally, July 17 is the anniversary of Ty Cobb's death. The Biz of Baseball has a nice writeup on those trying to reform the public's view of the Georgia Peach.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis

Once again, this is the weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup. I originally set the threshold very low - 10 plate appearances. Sal Fasano passed that threshold the other day, but just barely. So for the sake of argument, I've included a lineup with Fasano and one without.

This Week's Results
With Fasano
Without Fasano

This Week's Ideal Lineup
WithWithout
FasanoBlake
FranciscoSizemore
ChooChoo
SizemorePeralta
BlakeFrancisco
PeraltaShoppach
ShoppachDellucci
DellucciGarko
CarrollCarroll


Changes From Last Week
Too many to count.

Theoretical Runs Per Game
With Fasano: 5.624, up 0.558 runs per game from last week.
Without Fasano: 5.105, up 0.069 runs per game from last week. This lineup features the same players from last week, meaning that their net individual numbers have increased since then.

Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.532 runs per game. With Fasano, they gain 1.092 runs per game, which is 177 runs or 17-18 wins over the course of the season. However, Fasano's small sample size is a factor here. Without Fasano, the team gains 0.573 runs per game. That translates to 92.8 runs over the course of the season, or just over 9 more wins.

Defensive Plausibility
Fasano and Kelly Shoppach can alternate between first base and catcher, with everyone else assuming normal responsibilities. Or, Fasano or Shoppach can DH, with one of the outfielders playing first.
Without Fasano, the lineup is the one the "real" Indians send out against righties, so there are no issues.

Fan Believability
Sal Fasano has 20 speed (at best), so batting him leadoff is akin to volunteering to be fired. And while batting Grady Sizemore cleanup may be statistically optimal, I don't see why a manager would do that instead of batting him fourth. The rest of the lineup falls into place rather well, though.
The way Casey Blake has been hitting as of late, he probably could bat leadoff for a poor team without any better options. However, the Indians have several better options. After Blake and Sizemore, the rest of the lineup is very similar to what the Indians have been using as of late.

My Take
I agree that the Fasano lineup is very far-fetched. The one without him isn't too bad, though. I'm not saying I'd bat Casey Blake in the leadoff spot if my job was on the line, but I'd at least consider it.

Random Indians Thought of the Week
Congratulations to Cliff Lee - from AAA to All Star Starter.

Monday, July 14, 2008

All Star Lineup Analysis

Dave Pinto ran the All Star starting lineups through his analysis tool, and the NL came out with a distinct advantage. Is that a sign that the elder league that much better, or do they just have smarter voters? Are they finally ready to turn the tide and win home field advantage? Or will pitching make the lineup differences moot?

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Home Run Derby Monday at 8:00 on ESPN

Monday night is the Home Run Derby, at 8:00 PM Eastern on ESPN. HitTracker is a site that attempts to track and graph every home run hit, so I thought it would be a good way to preview how each of the participants may hit in the contest in Yankee Stadium.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to determine whether I'm allowed to post the graphs on my own site, so to be safe (yet boring), you're stuck with links.

First, here's the layout of Yankee Stadium.

Here are the home run charts of the eight participants:
Lance Berkman
Ryan Braun
Josh Hamilton
Evan Longoria
Justin Morneau
Grady Sizemore
Dan Uggla
Chase Utley

Yankee Stadium is known for its short right field and deep left/left-center field. As the only righties in the contest so far, that puts Dan Uggla, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Braun at as disadvantage. Uggla and Longoria are especially at a disadvantage, as almost all of their power is to left field this year. Braun, meanwhile, has hit his share of opposite field homers. It will be interesting to see what switch hitter Lance Berkman does this time around. He's traditionally batted from the right side in home run derbies, even when the situation dictated that he'd have an advantage as a lefty.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Futures Game Sunday at 12:30 on ESPN2

This year's Futures Game, a showcase of the top minor league talent, can be seen live Sunday at 12:37 PM Eastern on ESPN2. Baseball America has writeups on the US and World rosters, and an interesting column on how this year's Olympics are impacting the rosters.



Matt LaPorta is expected to play in the game for the US team. Indians fans should be sure to set their DVRs so they can catch their first glimpse of this young talent. In addition, Indians prospects RHP Hector Rondon will be on the World squad. Rondon currently plays for Class A Kinston.



Speaking of prospects and the Olympics, Canada just announced their baseball roster. It features two future Indians, RHP Tim Burton and OF Nick Weglarz.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Batting Stance Guy

I'm working on some All Star stuff that I plan to post this weekend. In the meantime, Batting Stance Guy has posted videos for most Major League teams now. So if you're in a place where you can watch and listen to videos right now, be sure to check out Batting Stance Guy's YouTube channel.

Here's the Indians video, complete with a few special gems.

Wednesday, July 09, 2008

Upcoming Major and Minor League All Star Schedules

More coverage (hopefully) of the Futures Game and Home Run Derby are to come. For now, here's a look at upcoming All Star events. All times are Eastern.

  • Futures Game: Sunday, July 13, 12:37 PM. Shown live on ESPN2.

  • All-Star Legends & Celebrity Softball Game: Sunday, July 13, 4:00 PM. ESPN will show the game on tape delay on Monday, July 14, after the Home Run Derby. (It's scheduled for 10:00 PM, but I strongly doubt it will start that early.)

  • AA Southern League All Star Game: Monday, July 14.

  • Home Run Derby: Monday, July 14, 8:00 PM. Shown live on ESPN.

  • MLB All Star Game: Tuesday, July 15, 8:00 PM. Shown live on Fox. (My over/under for first pitch is 8:22.)

  • AAA IL/PC All Star Game: Wednesday, July 16.

  • AA Eastern League All Star Game: Wednesday, July 6.

  • Short Season NY/Penn League All Star Game: Tuesday, August 19.


Here is MLB.com's All Star page. The Minor League page is here, and includes recaps of All Star games already played.

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Ten freshmen were selected in the first round of the NBA draft. There haven’t been this many teenagers selected for something since Roger Clemens took Viagra.

China's top backstroker Ouyang Kunpeng has been banned from swimming for life for failing a doping test. Terms of the ban are so restrictive that Kunpeng won't even be allowed to wash his face without permission.

Michelle Wie had a quintuple-bogey 9 during her first-round 81 at the U.S. Women's Open. Wie has since been downgraded from phenom to Kournikova.

The Baltimore Ravens are planning to turn trained ravens loose before home games this season. If you think that’s impressive, Houston is planning on doing the same thing with trained Texans.

And Willie Randolph will be replaced by Cubs manager Lou Piniella on the coaching staff for next month's All-Star game. The crazy part is that Randolph was told of the decision during the daytime.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The Williams sisters are both still alive in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. Las Vegas is taking bets on which sister will go further, as well as on when Don Imus will be fired.

Two years after his victory, Floyd Landis lost his final appeal, and must forfeit his Tour De France title. The appeal process was grueling, but hopefully Landis had enough steroids to get him through.

The West Virginia University president said that former coach Rich Rodriguez was "distraught" before he left the school. As opposed to all the other minorities in West Virginia, who love it there.

First baseman David Ortiz announced that he will miss the All-Star Game due to injury. First baseman Carlos Delgado announced that he will miss the All-Star Game due to suck.

And the Boston Red Sox allegedly received a threat targeting all black and Latin players. Or as Major League Baseball calls them, the New York Mets.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Dwyane Wade's image has started appearing on a brand of sex pills in China. Much like Wade, your potency will drop sharply after its peak.

South Korea plans to propose a joint march to North Korea at the opening and closing ceremonies of the Beijing Olympics. A joint march? Sounds like Josh Howard in college.

Georgia's bulldog mascot, Uga VI, was buried after passing away over the weekend. The death came as a surprise since the Bulldogs generally don't collapse until half way through the season.

Ricky Williams has said he'd like to go to medical school once he’s finished his playing career. Probably to get his hands on a prescription pad.

And the Cowboys are charging up to $150,000 to lease club seats at their new stadium. The seats are at the 50-yard line, in front of the referees, on the lap of a Cowboys cheerleader.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Fox will ask every player, manager and coach in the MLB All-Star Game to wear a microphone, which is a wonderful idea, if you speak Spanish.

Sources close to the Yankees are reporting that third baseman Alex Rodriguez has been spotted cavorting with recently separated pop star Madonna. The two go well together since he hit 50 the same year she did.

The Memphis Grizzlies have agreed on a thee-year, $10 million deal with center Marc Gasol. Right idea, wrong Gasol. Maybe next year they can sign Lane Bryant.

And Seattle point guard Earl Watson will miss four months after breaking his thumb. On the positive side, the injury should cut his texting bills in half.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

U.S. Basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski insists this year's Olympians are not going to Beijing to "sell shoes." Of course not. They're going there to visit the five-year-olds who make their shoes.

Alex Rodriguez's wife, Cynthia, has been in Paris for the past week visiting Lenny Kravitz. It's nice to hear she's finally found a man who has no problem performing in October.

The asterisk-branded ball that Barry Bonds hit for career homer No. 756 will be headed to the Hall of Fame after all. Bonds' head must be swelling with pride. Or steroids, one or the other.

And John Daly wowed a crowd at the Buick Pro-Am by driving a golf ball off of an empty beer can. If there's one thing Daly knows how to do, it's drink and drive. The only thing that would have wowed the crowd more is if Daly had left a beer can unopened.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Celtics forward Glen Davis was recently spotted in the Bahamas. By someone standing in Florida. Explorers were excited, as they thought they discovered a new island.

Charlie Weis predicted 9 to 12 victories for Notre Dame this season. In other news, Notre Dame's season has been expanded to 100 games.

The Harlem Globetrotters selected Patrick Ewing, Jr. as the top pick in the team's annual draft. Ewing was selected just ahead of a basketball on a string and a bucketful of confetti.

And four teams are currently chasing Indians ace C.C. Sabathia in an effort to bolster their rotations. Others are setting bear traps, and hoping for the best.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Kansas City tight end Tony Gonzalez recently saved a California man from choking. Now, if only he could do the same thing with the Chiefs.

The NHL is hoping to stage an open-air hockey game at the new Yankee Stadium. We expect Alex Rodriguez to be there, since he’s very familiar with thin ice. Cynthia Rodriguez has accused her husband of cheating on her in her divorce papers. We find it hard to believe that A-Rod has ever loved anyone other than himself.

The Red Sox are considering adding Barry Bonds for the stretch run. Because Boston fans are already used to having an over-sized monster in left field.

And Imprisoned quarterback Michael Vick has filed for bankruptcy protection while serving time for federal dogfighting charges. In the ultimate irony, the only transportation he can now afford is Greyhound.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Monday, July 07, 2008

Thoughts on the CC Sabathia Trade

If you're reading this, you know enough about baseball to have heard about the CC Sabathia trade already. My initial reaction came in four parts:

1. At least he didn't go to the Red Sox or Yankees.
Personal feelings aside, CC is only 28 and has a good chunk of his career ahead of him. The team he's going to also has a leg up on resigning him for the next year. The Indians still want to contend over the next few years. Giving Sabathia to Boston, New York, or any other AL contender would have been a sign that Cleveland didn't want to contend against those teams in 2009 and beyond. But by refusing to make their direct competition better, Cleveland has kept itself in the race.

2. Matt LaPorta? That's awesome!
Everything I've read about LaPorta, including this breakdown by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, suggest he's an absolute stud. The only question has been LaPorta's defense, but Mayo quotes an MLB scout who says that the prospect will be passable as a left fielder in the majors.

3. Why not Mat Gamel?
Gamel plays third base at AA for the Brewers, and is supposed to be just as good of a hitter as LaPorta. Some think Gamel (along with LaPorta) is Major League-ready. Why not ask for Gamel instead of LaPorta, especially when the current Indians outfield is already set, but the future at third base is still in question? Maybe, with current third baseman Bill Hall already all of 28 years old, Milwaukee sees Gamel as their own future at third. Or maybe it's a moot point, as Baseball America's Jim Callis reports that Gamel would be a liability at third.

4. Matt LaPorta? That's awesome!
Yes, I'm very excited about this.

The Other Prospects
Jonathan Mayo also gave a quick rundown of all the known prospects included in the trade. Let's Go Tribe's summary post can be found here. From their understanding, the PTBNL will be the second best guy the Indians receive, which is great news.

Further Analysis
The Indians have lost a great player. Fausto Carmona played like an ace in 2007, but he's not at CC's level yet. Plus there's the question of his control issues. Then again, Sabathia was always questioned for his poise and control issues until he put together his Cy Young season last year. So maybe Carmona can develop to that level. If not, who's to say that the Indians don't trade a few prospects for a Cy Young winner in a few years?

One thing that is certain - the road to the playoffs is a lot easier if you have two aces on your staff (as contradictory as that sounds). Cliff Lee won't always pitch like he did at the beginning of this season, but he should pitch well, so resigning him is a high priority.

Where does this leave the Indians?
As Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner age, they will become role players to the "new core" that features Carmona and Grady Sizemore. Sizmore is signed through 2012 (Carmona a few years more), so the goal should be to reach the top with this current team before then.

Weekly Cleveland Indians Lineup Analysis

For those who missed last week's edition, this is a new weekly series where I plan take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup. Again, in an attempt to be realistic I'll only include players on the active roster with 10+ plate appearances.

This Week's Results
Click here for full results.

This Week's Ideal Lineup
Choo
Sizemore
Garko
Shoppach
Blake
Peralta
Francisco
Dellucci
Carroll

Changes From Last Week
Kelly Shoppach and Ben Francisco switch spots, while everything else remains the same.

Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.036, down 0.127 runs per game from last week. The same players remain from last week, so in essence this means their performance has dropped since then.

Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.398 runs per game, meaning this would be an improvement of 0.651 runs per game. That in turn translates to 105 additional runs in a year, or 10.5 wins.

Defensive Plausibility
All infield spots are covered, with four outfielders who can rotate between the field and DH. As mentioned last week, this is the same starting nine that Eric Wedge has been using in real life, so there are no problems here.

Fan Believability
If Eric Wedge put together this batting order, would the fans call for his head? Possibly, especially in a year that has already been disappointing. Kelly Shoppach has been playing very well lately, but jumping him from ninth in the lineup to cleanup, and dropping Ben Francisco down to seventh would raise some eyebrows.

My Take
There's only one change from last week, so I'll basically repeat what I said then. I like Grady Sizemore batting second, where he can both get on base and drive in runs. Casey Blake has become the team's second-best hitter, so he's perfect in the #5 spot. And Shin-Soo Choo and Jamey Carroll lead the team in On Base Percentage, making them perfect for first and ninth, respectively.

Random Indians Thought of the Week
Before a recent Indians-Twins game, Sports Time Ohio showed the won-lost records and ERAs of the starters:
Paul ByrdLivan Hernandez
3-98-5
5.265.22

Their ERAs were nearly identical. But judging by their records alone, Byrd was having a terrible year and Hernandez a very good one. That just goes to show you how much a pitcher's won-lost record can be affected by his team's overall performance.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

Ten Ways A Wedding Can Be More Like Sports, In Ascending Order Of Potential Entertainment Value

#10: Corporate Sponsorship
Tuxedos may not look good with tennis shoes, but the wedding party could at least roll up to the event in a cool car. A sports-drink punch bowl could be easily incorporated into the reception, thus making everybody sweat neon colors that would sparkle on the dance floor.

#9: Vending
Having a vendor roam the pews with hot-dogs and Cracker Jack would certainly break up the tedium. Unfortunately, beers would be $9.50. Also, a reception dinner consisting of nachos and Diet Pepsi would be questionable at best.

#8: The Wave
The more people invited to the wedding ceremony, the more impressive this would be.

#7: JumboTron
It could be set up right behind the altar. This way, even the folks in the back pews could get a good look at the action. Instant replays would be popular. It could even display those cartoonish racing animations during the boring parts.

#6: Baselines
It's no coincidence that, in a regulation church, the distance from the doors to the altar is always exactly ninety feet. The groom will have to remember to slide so as not to be tagged out by a member of the opposing family.

#5: Mascots
Each family could pick one. Their wacky hijinks would add some color and humor to an otherwise solemn affair.

#4: Referees
Just to make sure everything runs smoothly. Is the maid of honor's speech too long? TWEEEEEET! Delay of game! Groomsmen getting too rowdy? TWEEEEEET! Sideline Infraction! You get the idea.

#3: Cheerleaders
Just let them do their thing. "GO! FIGHT! MARRY! YAY!" They could also enthusiastically hold up signs that say things like "I" and "DO" to fire up the crowd.

#2: Playoffs
Sixty-four groomsmen compete for one best man position and three runners-up. Likewise with the bridesmaids. Competitions would be along the lines of American Gladiators. Only, you know, with normal people.

#1: Color Commentary
Marriage veterans could provide context and insight. They could even illustrate their points with a telestrator for the viewers at home.
"You see, Mike, what the father's going to want to do is walk down this aisle here [draws an arrow] and hand his daughter off to the groom here [circles]."
"That's an interesting gambit, Steve. Let's hope the groom doesn't fumble the handoff."

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

How do I become a Sabermetrician?

Pizza Cutter over at MVN had a great introductory post on how to get started in sabermetrics. In addition to linking to many of the great stats blogs out there, he offers this piece of advice:

Draw from your background. I’m a psychologist by training. Most of the questions that intrigue me center around “Why did he do that?” That’s what I’ve been trained to look for in life. You may think that your chosen field has nothing to do with baseball, but you’re wrong. Sure, there are a lot of guys who are physics/math majors who look at algorithims for figuring out what a player will do next year, and that’s fine. I’m personally waiting for a good Sabermetric sociologist to come along to figure out why it is that baseball teams and society in general are so poor in assigning value to baseball players.


I found that one particularly interesting, especially because I've had a passing interest in sports psychology and mental optimization ever since reading The Mental Game of Baseball. In a world where some statheads mock the notion that professional ballplayers can get nervous or lose focus, it's nice to see one of the premier sabermetricians in the blogosphere single out the mental side of things.

So what am I doing to become a sabermetrician? My master's program had quite a few stats classes, and I consider that a very lucky break since I didn't have any statistics background before that (save "Intro to Probability"). I also just ordered and received Baseball Hacks on Amazon, as well as Learn VB .NET Through Game Programming and the Visual Basic .NET Codemaster's Library. The latter two books were written by Cleveland Indians Manager of System Development Matt Tagliaferri, which is a not-so-coincidental reason why I purchased them.

Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Welcome to the International Signing Period

July 2 marks the start of Major League Baseball's International Signing Period, a time when clubs can sign eligible foreign players age 16 and up as free agents. The Period has already started with a bang, as Oakland has reportedly worked out a deal with Dominican pitcher Michael Inoa. Inoa's deal is said to be worth $4.25 million, smashing the record set by the Yankees signing of Wily Mo Pena.

For more coverage, be sure to check out

Sunday, June 29, 2008

More Playoff Predictions

I just got an email from Ken Roberts, who pointed me to his own playoff odds site - Sports Club Stats. Ken provides verydetailed predictions, recaps, and "what ifs." For example, here is the Indians team page. Sports Club Stats covers every major American sport and then some.

I've only known about this site for a few days, but it's already one of my favorites. Be sure to check it out to see how your team is doing in the playoff hunt!

Weekly Indians Lineup Analysis

I've decided to start a new weekly column for the rest of the year. Every Sunday (I hope), I'll take the top 9 Indians in terms of OPS and feed them into Dave Pinto's Lineup Analysis Tool to determine the theoretical ideal batting lineup. In an attempt to be realistic, I'll only include players on the active roster (not injured or in the minors), and only those with 10+ plate appearances (sorry, CC and Sal Fasano).

This Week's Results
Click here for full results.

This Week's Ideal Lineup
Choo
Sizemore
Garko
Francisco
Blake
Peralta
Shoppach
Dellucci
Carroll

Theoretical Runs Per Game
5.163

Theoretical Improvement
The Indians are currently scoring 4.395 runs per game, meaning this would be an improvement of 0.768 runs per game. That in turn translates to 124 additional runs in a year, or 12.4 wins.

Defensive Plausibility
You can't just march out the top 9 hitters on your team every day; someone has to man each defensive position. For instance, earlier in the year, the Indians ideal lineup would have included Victor Martinez, Kelly Shoppach, Ryan Garko, and Travis Hafner, meaning one of those guys would have had to have played third base or right field.
However, this week's lineup is entirely plausible. All four infield positions plus catcher are covered, plus the remaining four outfielders can split time in the field or DH. In fact, this is the exact same starting 9 Eric Wedge has sent out for the last few games.

Fan Believability
If Eric Wedge put together this batting order, would the fans call for his head? For example, earlier in the year, Travis Hafner had a high on base percentage but a low slugging percentage, and the ideal lineup had him hitting leadoff. No one would have gone for that realistically.
However, this week's lineup has a very high believability/acceptability factor. Fans would have no trouble seeing Ben Francisco hit cleanup, and Garko, Blake, and Peralta area already hitting in the middle of the order. Some fans may not like Grady Sizemore dropping out of the leadoff spot, but there are just as many people who want to see him dropped down in the order so he can drive in runs.

My Take
I really like this lineup. Sabermetrically, the #2 guy is supposed to be your best all-around hitter. That's what Grady is. Shin-Soo Choo may not be a speed demon, but he has been getting on base. As has Jamie Carroll, which is what you want out of the #9 spot. Francisco may not have big power, but he's passable. The #5 spot is supposed to be your second best all-around hitter. You may not think of Casey Blake as that guy, but the way he's been hitting - and the way everyone else has been hitting - he fits the bill.

Random Indians Thought of the Week
Is it by design or bad coincidence that Aaron Laffey keeps pitching day games and other games where most of the regulars are resting. The young pitcher needs run support, and he's not going to get it with the bench players in. That can't be good on his confidence, and that's a shame because he's pitched relatively well to date.

Friday, June 27, 2008

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Editor's Note: Yeah, I know this is the second Sports Minute dump this week. But I wasn't going to post at all tonight until my softball games got rained out. So live with it.

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Los Angeles Sparks forward Candace Parker became the second woman to dunk in a WNBA game in a win over the Indiana Fever. What a great moment for all three fans in attendance.

The NBA is asking disgraced referee Tim Donaghy to reimburse the league for the cost of his basketball shoes. Donaghy would just return the shoes, but he lost them in a poker game.

Charles Barkley is headed back to Las Vegas to play in a charity poker tournament a month after pledging not to gamble. It's not as bad as it sounds, though. Barkley will be donating all of his winnings to Hypocrites Anonymous.

Curt Schilling will undergo season-ending surgery next week to repair a tendon in his shoulder. Unfortunately for Major League Baseball, the surgery isn't expected to interfere with his blogging.

And C.C. Sabathia is reportedly on the Chicago Cubs' radar. But given his size, he's on everyone's radar.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Pacman Jones has informed the media that he no longer wants to be referred to by his nickname. Instead, he will answer to "Adam," "Mr. Jones," or "Prisoner No. 345279."

Radio host Don Imus is in trouble again after making controversial racial remarks about Pacman Jones. In Imus' defense, many of his favorite slaves are black.

Kobe Bryant will head the 12-man U.S. squad in the Olympics this year. Wow, that's a lot of Olympians to not pass to.

Shaquille O'Neal insinuated that Kobe Bryant couldn't win a championship without him in an impromptu internet rap. It's hard to say what's more disturbing, the fact that the two men are still feuding or that Shaq is rapping again.

And New Orleans Hornets guard Rasual Butler has been charged with flashing a loaded gun near a South Florida nightclub. Luckily no one was in danger due to Butler's complete inability to shoot.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

49-year-old former boxing champions Jeff Fenech and Azumah Nelson came out of retirement to fight a 3rd match. The fight was marred by both men repeatedly telling the crowd to keep all the noise down.

A horse has tested positive for twice the allowable level of Clenbuterol, a bronchodilator that helps burn fat and promote muscle growth. John Daly is looking into the story.

The Green Bay Packers are crying poor after clearing just $21 million last season. Things are so dire, they might begin eating those giant cheese heads.

The Atlanta Dream are off to an 0-13 start during their first year in the WNBA. Owners are worried that attendance might drop from five to three.

And Shaquille O'Neal will lose his special deputy's badge in Maricopa County because of language he used in a rap video that mocks former teammate Kobe Bryant. The rap was so bad that Shaquille also lost his license to ill.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The Toronto Raptors have agreed to trade T.J. Ford to the Indiana Pacers. With gas prices as high as they are, it's nice to know you can still unload a broken down old Ford.

PETA is upset at Wimbledon officials for using marksmen to shoot some pesky pigeons. Dave Winfield was upset they didn’t call him first.

John Daly and Kid Rock teamed up yesterday at the Buick Open pro-am, but not before locking up the trailer park.

Several teams around the NBA have expressed interest in Dallas Mavericks wingman Josh Howard. The All-Star forward could be dealt as early as 4:20.

And Fox broadcaster Terry Bradshaw said that he used steroids while with the Steelers. Which finally explains the mystery of his forehead.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Cleveland Indians: Not Quite Dead Yet

I was all set to write a post mortem for the Indians. A second straight home lost to the Giants dropped them into last place. Baseball Prospectus gives them a 2% chance of making the playoffs; PlayoffStatus.com, 1%. THe entire team seemingly is injured or underperforming. Mitchell at Juiced Sports Blog says that CC Sabathia is all but traded.

Then I read this Baseball Prospectus article. As MLB.com's standings page shows, the Indians are vastly underperforming their pythagorean (expected) win-loss total. Sure, that is due to a few 12-0 wins followed by stretches of 3-2 losses (either from nine innings of inept offense or one inning of inept relief pitching), but still that's a sign for hope. As the BP article points out, Ryan Garko and Jhonny Peralta are currently underperforming, and should bounce back to their career averages at least to some extent.

The good news is that we're still over a month away from the trade deadline, so the Tribe can delay their buy/sell decision a little longer. The bad news is that of the host of injured players, only Fausto Carmona is due back before the deadline. That would give the Indians a great top 3/5 of the rotation and a capable fourth starter in Aaron Laffey. Paul Byrd's ERA is around 5, but that isn't horrendous for a fifth starter these days.

What about the lineup? The outfield has now settled down, with Grady Sizemore, Ben Francisco, and Shin-Soo Choo all hitting well. Dave Dellucci and Franklin Gutierrez are capable backups, especially Gutierrez as a defensive replacement for Francisco and Choo. As mentioned above, Garko and Peralta are underperforming, but Jamey Carroll and Casey Blake are actually playing respectably. Blake has an OPS+ of 105, which sadly is the fourth best on this team (after the three starting outfielders). Carroll's OPS+ is in the 90s, as is Kelly Shoppach's.

That leaves the bullpen. GM Mark Shapiro willingly admits that bullpens are a crapshot, and the fact that this year's bullpen is that much worse than last year's despite few major personnel moves is proof. The next two players expected to get a show in the Indians pen are former Twins reliever Juan Rincon and prospect Jeff Stevens.

So should the Indians buy, sell, or hold? No matter how optimistic you are, the odds of making the playoffs this year are slim. If the Indians do buy, they should do so with 2009 and 2010 in mind. If they happen to luck out and make the playoffs this year in the process, great.

On the same token, the Indians do not need to sell and start rebuilding again. With a limited budget, Cleveland has to operate within certain "windows of opportunity" of competitiveness. Does the current window of opportunity close if CC Sabathia leaves? Not in the slightest. If Sabathia leaves, Grady Sizemore becomes the new face of the franchise, and he's signed through 2012. Most of the other current core players will be around until then as well. So the Indians need to work to stay competitive over these next five seasons, including this year. And remember, CC Sabathia isn't gone yet.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Cleveland Cavaliers Last-Minute Draft Links

The NBA Draft starts Thursday night. The Cleveland Cavaliers have the 19th pick in the first round, and that's it. Here are some links that can serve as a last-minute cram session for Cavs fans.

First, the official sites:
NBA.com's draft coverage
Cavs.com's Draft Central

If you prefer national coverage that's not controlled by David Stern, there's NBAdraft.net

I'll admit I don't follow Cavs blogs as much as I'd like to, but here are some of note:
And One, from Cleveland.com
Brian Windhorst, Ohio.com sportswriter
The Cleveland Fan's Cavs page (the site itself is affiliated with Sports Time Ohio)
CavsNews.com
Waiting for Next Year

And of course, there's the Cleveland Cavaliers section on Bleacher Report.

Finally, if you live in the Cleveland area, the Cavs are having an official draft party at the Winking Lizard in Lakewood. The Lakewood Lizard is a great old (1915) building that used to be an Elks Lodge. The Winking Lizard as a franchise is famous for its Beer Tour, burgers, and BBQ sauce. The draft party should be a good time.

Monday, June 23, 2008

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The trainers of Kentucky and Preakness winner Big Brown offered no explanation for his poor performance at Belmont, saying only that "he didn't have it." Which is the exact same thing Big Brown's owner said about their check.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to pay a local radio station $2,000 per broadcast next season. No word yet on how much the team will have to pay fans to actually listen.

Memphis Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley has said he suspects his team did not get fair value for center Pau Gasol. Gasol was traded for a few fur coats and $26 in beads.

Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick and California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger made a friendly wager on the NBA finals. If the Celtics win, Schwarzenegger will donate Californian food and beverages to a charity of Patrick's choice. And if the Lakers win, Patrick must sit through Jingle All the Way.

And the Tampa Bay Rays selected teenage shortstop Tim Beckham with the first pick in the draft. They had trouble cruising high schools looking for talent, but eventually got some help from Roger Clemens.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Country singer Mindy McCready recently took part in the World Series of Poker. It's the first time in weeks we've been able to say the words "McCready" and "poker" without mentioning Roger Clemens.

Tampa Bay pitcher Matt Garza and catcher Dioner Navarro had to be separated during a game on Sunday. The battery had so many problems, they were hired to work in a Sprint phone.

Chicago's Cedric Benson was arrested for the second time in a month. One more and the NFL will force the Bears to trade him to Cincinnati.

Red Wings forward John Franzen has a bruise on his brain. Must be from all the Tigers games he's been watching.

And Kasey Kahne has won three of the last four NASCAR races. He's so popular amongst racing fans, it's almost as if his initials had a third K.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Ken Griffey, Jr. finally belted his six hundredth home run. The shot was so high, it nearly hit the bottom of the cellar door. Griffey hopes to play for another two seasons in order to hit his 601st.

The Chicago Bears waived Cedric Benson. In order to make mini-camp, all athletes must touch their finger to their nose and say the alphabet backwards.

Michael Strahan has announced he is retiring after 15 seasons in the NFL. The seven-time Pro Bowler is expected to leave behind a void second only to the gap in his teeth.

And Gilbert Arenas has opted out of the final year of his contract with the Washington Wizards. The three-time All-Star is an ideal pick up for any team in need of a good blogger.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Big Brown's trainer is now blaming his Belmont defeat on the horse's jockey. The jockey is blaming Steve Bartman.

Former Knicks star Allan Houston has said he is still interested in playing next season. In related news, so am I. At first we thought this was ridiculous, but then we looked at the Knicks' roster.

A Yankees clubhouse attendant has revealed that Roger Clemens was in the habit of taking Viagra. Because his fastball wasn't the only thing he couldn't keep up and away.

And the Pacers hired Sam Perkins to mentor their players. And they hired Roy Jones Jr. to train them for games in Detroit.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The U.S. Open has a new policy prohibiting food, beverages, containers, coolers and animals. If they didn't want John Daly attending, they could have just said so.

Roger Federer won his 56th consecutive match on grass. If he runs through any more grass, he'll break Ricky Williams' record.

The good news is the Bills running back Marshawn Lynch had Lasik surgery to correct his vision. The bad news is Lynch can now see just how bad the Bills are.

And turns out New York Giants Super Bowl rings were among the $2 million worth of items stolen from a Massachusetts jewelry company. Luckily the rings should be easy to retrieve since they're so gaudy that they’re visible from space. Authorities have already narrowed down their list of suspects to Dan Marino, Earl Campbell and Warren Moon.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The Sharks hired Todd McClellan as head coach. They were immediately drawn to him because he was bleeding and looked like an injured seal.

Brad Penny extended his winless streak to eight starts. The dollar might not buy much these days, but looks like a Penny is completely worthless.

The New York Mets acquired Trot Nixon. With the way the team's been playing, he'll have to change his name to Limp Nixon.

And a person associated with the Cowboys was electrocuted over the weekend when they touched a high voltage line at the team's new stadium. And here's the really bad news for Dallas fans: it wasn't Jessica Simpson. Simpson is launching her own line of sexy lingerie. It won't sell well. As any Dallas fan can tell you, getting into Jessica Simpson's underwear is bad luck.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

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Major League Baseball is considering using instant replay for home run calls this season. Not to correct anything, but because it would be hilarious to watch Prince Fielder run in slow motion.

Evander Holyfield's sprawling Georgia estate is under foreclosure. Take heart, Evander. We hear that Latrell Sprewell is looking for a roommate.

Quarterback Joey Harrington recorded a hole-in-one at Druid Hills Golf Club twice in two weeks. We'd call him lucky were it not for the fact that he plays for the Falcons.

Danny Bonaduce, Dennis Rodman and Screech have signed on to participate in Hulk Hogan's Celebrity Championship Wrestling. We are rooting for a fight to the death.

And the New Jersey Nets plan to give away more than $250,000 worth of free gas. Or as most people call it, a full tank.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Yankee pitcher Chien Ming Wang is going on the disabled list for a while. It's the first time shelving a Wang has caused this much commotion in New York since it happened to Eliot Spitzer.

TV news journalist and lifelong Bills fans Tim Russert has died at the age of 58. It's so unfortunate that Russert passed before he could see Buffalo lose another four Super Bowls.

And Mets GM Omar Minaya finally fired manager Willie Randolph. If Minaya weathered the storm much longer, he'd have had to call FEMA. Yes, FEMA – the one organization more inept than the New York Mets. Mets ownership said that if they wanted to expect greatness only to get disappointment, they'd have hired M. Night Shyamalan.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

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Roger Clemens is allegedly selling many of his personal affects to pay his legal fees. On the positive side, Boof Bonser may finally be able to get a Cy Young award.

North Carolina underclassmen Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green will withdraw their names from the NBA draft and return to Chapel Hill next season. The announcement means the Tar Heels should be the best team in the state ahead of Duke, Davidson and the Charlotte Bobcats.

Barack Obama has said that if he wins this fall, he will install a basketball court at the White House. And if John McCain wins, he'll install a shuffleboard deck.

Chris Simms didn't show up to Tampa's minicamp. Now that he's ignoring the team and doing other things, he’s officially a Bucs' fan.

And NBC Sports and World Championship Sports Network are forming a partnership to create an all-Olympic channel. That way sports fans can have access to all the Olympics they want to ignore.

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The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

American strongman Derek Poundstone was in New York pulling a 50,000-pound, double-decker bus. Because gas prices are just that high.

Oscar de la Hoya says he will retire after one more fight, saying "I have been preparing for this my entire life." Understandable, since every man's 15th lackluster 12-round decision is a major milestone.

Miami was eliminated from the College World Series. It was a shock to the city, because a sports team from Miami was actually playing in the post season.

Prince Fielder allegedly owes more than $400,000 in unpaid taxes. Although that may sound like a lot, it's still considerably less than his weekly grocery bill.

And Cincinnati star Chad Johnson recently underwent minor ankle surgery. Unfortunately the Bengals receiver came to before doctors had the chance to wire his mouth shut.

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A California woman completed a marathon less than a year after giving birth to sextuplets. The woman didn't mean to run the marathon, she was just running away.

Overweight pitcher C.C. Sabathia hit a tape-measure home run in a game against the Dodgers. Sadly, Sabathia suffered three heart attacks while rounding the bases.

A Sports Illustrated poll has named Derek Jeter the most overrated player in baseball. Votes were cast by almost 500 major league baseball players, and then replaced by Alex Rodriguez' opinion. A-Rod ranked third in the survey, because even he thinks he's overrated.

And an angry Mets fan shipped five chickens to the team's owners to protest the cowardly way in which they fired manager Willie Randolph. The Mets are hoping to use the chickens to replace Carlos Delgado.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Baseball Updates

Some updates on my recent Notre Dame Baseball Alumni article, plus some other baseball odds and ends.

  • Matt Macri wins the next-alum-to-be-called-up contest. He's a part-time starter at second and third, and has definitely held his own with the bat so far. In fact, he hit his first Major League home run against the Indians minutes before I typed this.

  • Brian Stavisky didn't stay in the independent leagues for very long. Stavo was signed by the Angels at the end of May and was assigned to the AA Arkansas Travelers. There he is playing every day at the corner outfield spots, first base, and DH.

  • Javy Sanchez (not Javy Lopez) was accepted to LSU's grad school and is also part of Paul Mainieri's coaching staff. Sanchez is Mainieri's third base coach. Mainieri was his own third base coach at Notre Dame, so putting Sanchez there tells me that the coach has a lot of faith in his former player.
    Mainieri is featured prominently in this clip of the hidden ball trick play pulled by UC Irvine. If you pay attention to the announcers, you'll also hear that Sanchez was ejected from the game for arguing the call.

  • MLB Trade Rumors has a good roundup of various MLB draft reactions. For a complete list of Notre Dame players taken in the draft, your best source is Jake's Field at ND Nation.

  • Finally, congrats to some local small colleges for successful baseball seasons. Ashland (Master's alma mater of Fired Up Friend Todd and one-year school of my sister) made the Division II College World Series. Adrian (alma mater of Infamous Cousin) had a Cinderella run to get into the Division III CWS. And Joliet Community (famous for a throwaway line in Rudy won the Junior College DIII championship.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Cleveland Cavaliers Draft Needs By Position

The fine people over at Bleacher Report have asked for my input on Cleveland's needs in the upcoming NBA draft. I have to admit that I'm stepping a little out of my comfort zone, as I didn't get much of a chance to follow college basketball or even the NBA much this year. I'd also love to have access to a basketball version of Cot's Baseball Contracts, but to my knowledge none exists. I do know the current Cavs roster however, and I do know Cleveland has only one pick: the 19th selection in the first round. With that said, here is my take on the Cavs' needs by position, in increasing order of need.

Small Forward: LeBron James has the position locked up, obviously. There's also Sasha Pavolvic and Wally Szczerbiak, borderline starters who are more than capable as backups.

Point Guard: Would it be great to add Gilbert Arenas, as rumors suggest? Of course. But at the same time, point guard is not a draft need. Delonte West is an adequate starter. Plus, the team already has two undersized shooting guards with borderline ball-handling skills in Daniel Gibson and Damon Jones. Undersized shooting guards are not in high demand in the NBA, so the last thing the Cavs need is to draft another short man only to find out he can't handle the point in the pros.

Center/Power Forward: Many analysts are looking towards the Cavs taking a center in the draft. But Cleveland already carries six post players on their roster. Yes, three of them (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, and Joe Smith) are in their mid-30s. Anderson Varejao's contract won't last forever. And Dwayne Jones and Lance Allred probably won't be stars. Sure, the Cavs need another scoring option in the post. But they only have one pick. If they had multiple picks, I'd be all for using one on depth and potential. The Cavs don't really have that luxury this year, though.

Shooting Guard: Cleveland has good talent. They made the NBA Finals last year, and were close to the conference finals this year. So an NBA Championship is a reasonable outcome. But history suggests that teams need at least two stars to make them a sure thing in the playoffs. Even team-first champions like Detroit and San Antonio had multiple stars. LeBron needs his second star, and the most reasonable place seems to be at shooting guard. The Cavs originally tried to make Larry Hughes that star, but it didn't work out. Is that start in the draft this year, and will he still be available at number 19? Or should the Cavs go in another direction with their pick?

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Ken Griffey, Jr.: What Might Have Been?

Ken Griffey, Jr. hit his 600th career home run the other night. As a kid in Seattle, he looked destined to flirt with Hank Aaron's home run record. But as we all know, The Kid* was hit often by the injury bug.

*Joe Posnanski-style tangent: As you may know, if a player signs a bat deal with Louisville Slugger, the company will put the player's signature on their bats. As part of this process, LS gives the player a piece of paper with spaces to try out 10 different variations of their signature, and pick which one they like best. Griffey's signature sheet is one of the "artifacts" on the LS factory tour. In addition to his name, a few of the spaces are just signed "The Kid."

The chase to 600 put Griffey back in the spotlight, and many baseball purists have pined for an alternate reality where a healthy and clean Junior was able to out-slug not only The Hammer, but Barry Bonds as well. But how realistic is this alternate universe?

Bonds has hit 762 home runs in 22 seasons. Griffey, as we established, has hit 600 and is currently in his 20th season. He (Griffey) is currently averaging 125 games per season, and has homered in approximately 1/4 of his career games. (He averages 0.246 home runs per game, to be exact.) How healthy would Griffey had to have been to hit 762 in 22 seasons? That is, at his current pace, how many games would he have had to have played per season to remain on track to top Bonds in 2010?

As I mentioned, Griffey has averaged 0.246 HR/game.

22 seasons * 0.246 HR/game * X games/season = 762 HR

X = 141 (approximately)

So if Griffey had only played (and continued to play) 16 more games per season, he would have been on pace for 762. But as Griffey has quite adequately demonstrated, center field is a demanding position. Here's how that compares to a completely random (aka off the top of my head) list of recent center fielders (plus Bonds):

Barry Bonds: 136 games/season
Johnny Damon: 142
Jim Edmonds: 121
Torii Hunter: 112
Andruw Jones: 147
Kenny Lofton: 124
Grady Sizemore: 131
Vernon Wells: 108
Bernie Williams: 130

Hunter, Sizemore, and Wells' numbers are partially skewed by early-career September callups. But still, I'd give the average starting center fielder a decent chance to average 141 games over the course of his career. All the more reason to think about what might have been.

Sunday, June 08, 2008

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Tennessee Titans wide receiver Mike Williams has lost 30 pounds. Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Andruw Jones seems to have found them. Jones will likely miss the next four to six weeks after undergoing surgery to repair torn cartilage in his knee. The Dodgers hope that his rehab center isn't next to a Dunkin Donuts.

A Japanese sumo wrestler attacked his junior apprentice with a ladle. The sumo apparently mistook his apprentice for an oversized cartoon ham.

And Roger Clemens has requested that his defamation trial be moved to his native Texas. Since everything is bigger in Texas, maybe his head will be smaller in comparison. The next step is to assemble a jury of his peers, but no telling where they'll find twelve lying, cheating, statutory rapists. Sorry – lying, cheating, alleged statutory rapists.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

James Blake was ousted in the second round of the French Open by 19-year-old Latvian phenom Ernests Gulbis. An athlete hasn't had this much trouble with a teenager since Roger Clemens.

After Usain Bolt broke the world record in the 100 meters, fans compared him to lightning by calling him "The Bolt." Which is better than being compared to thunder and called "The Clap."

Women's softball giant UCLA was eliminated from the NCAA tournament. But they still got good news when California legalized gay marriage.

Rasheed Wallace was fined $25,000 for criticizing officials. But the real loser was Charles Barkley, who picked the over at $30,000.

And 13-year-old Indiana native Sameer Mishra won the National Spelling Bee. Now it's back to tutoring the Hoosier basketball team.

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The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The New York Knicks are leaning towards trading the sixth pick in the upcoming NBA draft. If history is any indication, they'll trade it for the seventh pick.

Mike Vanderjagt signed with the CFL. Which, appropriately enough, is just wide right of the NFL.

Pacman Jones was arrested at a Dallas night club. I'm sorry, that's next week's Sports Minute.

More Detroit residents watched hockey than basketball this year. Followed by the spelling bee, news about a Ford Motors strike, Lake Michigan sunsets, and the Lions.

And Sammy Sosa says he may retire after next year's World Baseball Classic. It's nice to hear he's finally going to put a cork in it.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Members of the New York Giants have finally received their $25,000 Super Bowl rings from Tiffany. The rings are so stunning that Kobe Bryant is considering buying three of them, just in case.

The Broncos waived Travis Henry. Henry intends to stay in the NFL by fathering his own team.

The Cincinnati Reds Ken Griffey Jr. is about to join the 600 home run club. Which is sad, since he'd have 700 by now if he ever played against the Reds.

Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton has been chosen as the American League player of the month. We expect him to win comeback player of the year, too – finishing just ahead of Lazarus.

And David Ortiz is headed to the 15-day disabled list. His new nickname will be Snap, Crackle, and Big Papi.

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The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

Randy Johnson passed Roger Clemens on the career strikeout list by notching his 4,673rd K. It's quite an accomplishment for a man who looks like he should be operating carnival rides in Oklahoma.

Alex Rodriguez reportedly told a ten-year-old boy to "beat it" when the young fan approached him for an autograph at a Baltimore Hooters. Ironically, that's why most people go to Hooters in the first place.

Joba Chamberlain's first start in pinstripes was brief and unsuccessful. Joba was so upset afterwards, he froze Han Solo in a vat of carbonite.

If Big Brown wins the Belmont, he will fetch $60 million in stud fees. That's good news, since Big Brown's jockey is only expected to fetch a dollar twenty-five.

And Flip Saunders was let go as coach of the Pistons. He'll be replaced by his more progressive and forward-moving brother Cartwheel Saunders.

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The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The Red Wings are hockey champs. The trophy is the biggest cup the city has seen since the one in Cecil Fielder's locker.

Bill Parcells now says that he wants Jason Taylor to come back. Good thing Parcells spoke up, because he was so silent he sounded Dolphin Stadium on game day.

Swimsuit-model and alleged actress Nikki Ziering will participate in Hulk Hogan's new reality show, Celebrity Championship Wrestling. She'll be a natural, due to all of her experience spending time on her back with her legs in the air.

The NBA has confirmed that Michael Beasley is 6-8 and not 6-10 as he previously claimed. The Kansas State forward has blamed his loss of two inches on a recent circumcision.

And the IOC has suspended Iraq's national Olympic committee, thus making them the first organization in Iraq with an exit strategy.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Happy Draft Day!

Well, sort of. The MLB draft stretches from June 5-6, so if you're reading this within 28 hours of posting, it technically still is draft day. Be sure to check out these fine websites for draft coverage:



Notre Dame junior closer Kyle Weiland was taken with the last pick of the third round by the Red Sox. MLB.com prospect guru Jonathan Mayo wrote a quick capsule on Weiland the other day. If you go to the MLB.com draft tracker and scroll down to the bottom of the third round, you can also see a "scouting video" of Weiland. Best of luck to Kyle, and to the other Notre Dame players taken this year. I haven't followed the team as much as I would have liked to, but my wild guess is that senior SP Wade Korpi will be next.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Ten Potential Uses For Short People In The Game Of Baseball, In Ascending Order Of Utility

#1: Bases
You wouldn't step on them, of course. (They bite.) But maybe you could give them a high-five as you run the bases. Don't worry, baseball players; High-fiving a short person isn't any more strenuous than your average butt-pat.

#2: Spittoon Carriers
A small squad of short people carrying large brass spittoons could be employed to help keep the area clean. Different spittoon stations would include both dugouts, the bullpen, directly behind the umpire, and two "rovers". When somebody needs to approach the pitcher's mound for a strategy/spitting session, they would always make sure to bring along a spittooner.

#3: Proxy Base Runners
If a batter has a twisted ankle or a bum knee, that shouldn't stop him from participating. Just have a short person run the bases for him. Short people might take longer to cover the distance, but they're much harder to tag. Also, it would be easier for them to high-five the bases as they ran past.

#4: Proxy Batters
Yeah, Mr. Hot-Shot Pitcher Man, you just try to hit that strike zone.

#5: Proxy Pitchers
What the pitches would lack in overall speed would be more than made up for in pure anger.

#6: Messengers
Instead of learning countless hard-to-memorize gestures that can easily be thwarted by an errant bee or severe gastrointestinal problems, just use short people. Give a couple of short people little tablets and little pencils, and have them run your missives back and forth as fast as their wee little legs can carry them. "Messenger from the other dugout, coach. Apparently you're ugly."

#7: Good/Evil Consciences
You could dress them up as angels and devils, respectively. Each coach would have a pair, as well as the umpire and probably the pitcher.
Pitcher: "What do you think? Fastball?"
Short Person Dressed Like An Angel: "Yes, but not too fast. Give the man a fair chance."
Short Person Dressed Like A Devil: "I think you should bean him."

#8: Cheerleaders
Wait, what? No. I mean . . . What? No!

#9: Proxy Fielders
Of course, you'd probably need about two dozen short people to cover the average baseball field. A whole new set of field positions would have to be created, such as left-of-center field, second-first baseman, and shorter-stop.

#10: Tackling People Who Rush The Field
The innate ferociousness of a short person could be leveraged to its fullest advantage. It would take an awesome level of inebriation to steel a potential field rusher to brave the lawn-piranha that was the Ten-Man Rush Squad, and they stop serving drinks after the seventh-inning stretch. (Note that "Ten-Man" translates into roughly fourteen short people, plenty enough to cover the field if positioned strategically.)