MLB Previews #1National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Stephen Drew SS
Chris Young CF
Conor Jackson LF
Chad Tracy 1B
Mark Reynolds 3B
Chris Snyder C
Justin Upton RF
Felipe Lopez 2B

Rotation
Brandon Webb
Dan Haren
Doug Davis
Jon Garland
Max Scherzer
Yusmeiro Petit
Billy Buckner

I'm trying something slightly different this year, ordering teams by their projected PECOTA finish rather than their actual finish in the previous season. PECOTA has Arizona finishing with the second-best record in the National League. Orlando Hudson and Adam Dunn are gone, but the continued development of the Phoenix youngsters and a solid lineup from top to bottom will lead this team.

The bench features pinch hitter extraordinaire Tony Clark and versatile infielder Augie Ojeda. Eric Byrnes begins the year as Arizona's fourth outfielder, and will be trying to work his way back into the starting lineup. Between Justin Upton and Chris Young's youth, and Conor Jackson's inexperience in the outfield, I'm sure Byrnes will see his fair share of playing time.

It seems like every playoff team needs two aces, and Arizona has them in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. Doug Davis is a bit underrated and Jon Garland a bit overrated, but both are good complements to the Big Two. The fifth spot is also in good hands, no matter if it goes to Petit, super-prospect Scherzer, or the younger Buckner.

Chad Qualls begins the season as Arizona's closer. If he falters, Jon Rauch and Tom Gordon both have closer experience. Gordon and Scott Schoeneweis bring veteran experience to the bullpen to contrast the young batting order and pitching rotation.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Rafael Furcal SS
Matt Kemp CF
Russell Martin C
James Loney 1B
Casey Blake 3B
Andre Ethier RF
Orlando Hudson 2B
Juan PierreLF

Rotation
Chad Billingsley
Hiroki Kuroda
Randy Wolf
Clayton Kershaw
Jason Schmidt
Eric Stults
Hong-Chih Kuo

The Dodgers lost two big power bats in Jeff Kent and Manny Ramirez, but their lineup is still good enough to be competitive in this division. In the past few years, Orlando Hudson has been putting up the offense to match his brilliant defense. Hudson and Rafael Furcal combine for what is easily the best all-around middle infield combo in this division. Rising stars Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, James Loney, and Andre Ethier help fill out a lineup that has very few holes.

The Dodgers have good depth in the infield. Brad Ausmus was brought in for his reputation for calling games, and will no doubt mentor Martin. Mark Loretta is still a quality ballplayer, and can play anywhere on the infield. Blake DeWitt proved his worth at the end of last season by winning and keeping the starting second base job. This year he'll be backing up Orlando Hudson and Casey Blake at second and third, respectively. This offense's problem is with its outfield depth. Juan Pierre may be a great person, but he's questionable as a starter on a contending team. Matt Kemp is a great young talent, but his future lies in one of the corner outfield spots. But there aren't many other options, outside of Jason Repko and Delwyn Young

Randy Wolf joins a rotation anchored by phenomenal young talent in Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw. If Jason Schmidt returns anywhere near to the performances he had as a Giant, the Dodgers starters will be in great shape.

As has become the norm in the past few years, Los Angeles has put together a very good and very deep bullpen. Jonathan Broxton is the closer, a job he won after the injury to Takashi Saito last year. He'll be supported by Guillermo Mota, Yhency Brazoban, and Claudio Vargas. Jeff Weaver finds himself in Dodgers camp this spring, and will try to break camp as a swingman reliever.

San Francisco Giants

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Fred Lewis LF
Edgar Renteria SS
Randy Winn RF
Bengie Molina C
Aaron Rowand CF
Pablo Sandoval 3B
Travis Ishikawa 1B
Kevin Frandsen 2B

Rotation
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Randy Johnson
Barry Zito
Jonathan Sanchez
Noah Lowry
Pat Misch

The much-needed revitalization of San Francisco's offense starts at the top with Fred Lewis. Lewis is still rough around the edges, but you can't complain about a .351 on base percentage in the left fielder's first full season in the bigs. After Lewis is a mixture of the old and the new. Aaron Rowand is overrated, but Randy Wynn is underrated. Edgar Renteria has always underperformed in the American League, but found success in the Senior Circuit. Bengie Molina may not be a cleanup hitter, but he's still a solid batter from the catcher position. Converted catcher Pablo Sandoval gets a try a third base, which I'm sure he agreed to readily, since it's only a matter of time before Buster Posey is behind the plate in brown and orange.

The Giants bench isn't deep, but it does feature a few key veterans. Juan Uribe is there if Sandoval falters at third, and Rich Aurilia is Travis Ishikawa's safety net at first. Meanwhile, Dave Roberts will serve as a backup outfielder.

For the past few seasons, the Giants starting rotation has been head and shoulders above its starting lineup. While the batters are starting to catch up, the hurlers are still the bright spot for this team. The Freak Tim Lincecum, Noah Lowry, and Matt Cain (in what should be a bounceback year) will get veteran leadership - and very good pitching - from Randy Johnson. If the end of 2008 is any indication, Barry Zito will still have a few setbacks, but he's starting to return to the level we saw him at with the A's.

Most casual baseball fans probably haven't heard of Brian Wilson, much less knew that he saved 41 games for the Giants in 2008. Wilson is back as the San Francisco closer, aided by Bob Howry and Jeremy Affeldt. Affeldt has turned himself into a reliable bullpen option, and Howry will likely prove that his rough 2008 was an abhoration.

Colorado Rockies

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
Clint Barmes 2B
Troy Tulowitzki SS
Todd Helton 1B
Garrett Atkins 3B
Bradley Hawpe RF
Chris Iannetta C
Ryan Spilborghs CF
Seth Smith LF

Rotation
Aaron Cook
Ubaldo Jimenez
Jason Marquis
Jorge De La Rosa
Greg Smith
Jason Hirsch
Franklin Morales
Greg Reynolds

The Rockies have essentially rebooted their outfield, replacing Wily Taveras and Matt Holliday with Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith. Without Holliday, the Rockies will need a return to form from Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, and Brad Hawpe if they want to have any hope for competing in this division.

If Spilborgs or Smith falter, the Rockies do have good outfield depth in Carlos Gonzalez (acquired in the Holliday trade), Cubs castoff Matt Murton, and prospect Dexter Folwer. Of course, questions still remain whether Gonzalez or Folwer are ready for the Show. Ian Stewart adds depth on the infield, and Yorvit Torreabla is a capable backup at catcher.

Colorado's rotation took a huge blow with the news that Jeff Francis will miss all of 2009. The addition of Jason Marquis and the return of Aaron Cook will help, but it may not be enough for a pitching rotation that was already thin to begin with.

When he's on, Huston Street is one of the best closers in the game. But Street struggled in 2008, and now he's moving to the thin air of Colorado, which should raise some concerns about his performance. If Street falters, Manny Corpas will likely return to the role he once held for the Rockies. Street and Corpas will be aided by reliable rubber-armed veterans Alan Embree and Jason Grilli and up-and-coming reliever Taylor Buchholz.

San Diego Padres

Baseball America Top 10 Prospects

Lineup
David Eckstein 2B
Jody Gerut CF
Brian Giles RF
Adrian Gonzalez 1B
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
Chase Headley LF
Nate Hundley C
Luis Rodriguez SS

Rotation
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Cha Seung Baek
Kevin Correia
Josh Geer
Wade LeBlanc
Chad Reineke

It was a fall I'm sure the Padres didn't see coming. Now, they must rebuild. Injury-plagued Jody Gerut was a pleasant surprise for San Diego in 2008, and he'll return as the club's starting center fielder in 2009. The middle of the lineup is solid, if not spectacular, with Giles, Gonzalez, and Kouzmanoff. But it doesn't look like that will be enough this year.

Three familiar names highlight the San Diego bench. Cliff Floyd joins the club as a pinch hitter and occasional outfielder. Scott Hairson will back up all three outfield spots. And ageless defensive wizard Henry Blanco joins the club as a backup catcher.

Jake Peavy is an ace, and for the time being, still a Padre. When healthy, Chris Young isn't that far behind Peavy in terms of performance. But after those two, there are questions.

There are questions in the bullpen as well. Heath Bell takes over at closer after Trevor Hoffman's long run at that position. Bell will be aided by Cla Meredith.

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Pittsburgh Steelers barely beat the Arizona Cardinals, after collapsing like they were Pittsburgh's job market. The city is now on top of the sports world. And to remain there, they're selling the Pirates.

David Wells has fired back at Joe Torre, claiming the manager unfairly criticized his ex-players in his new book. Wells was livid after the book was read to him.

The Worcester Tornadoes have offered Manny Ramirez a two-year contract worth $24,000. Agent Scott Boras has advised him to hold out for $26,000.

And Michael Phelps acknowledged that a photo of him smoking pot is authentic. The good news is that he smoked it a half second faster than the French.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Cardinals are feeling plenty of heat after coughing up a lead with 35 seconds to go in Super Bowl XLIII. Thankfully in Arizona, it's a dry heat.

A Japanese sumo wrestler has been arrested for marijuana possession. Which, in sumo, is a performance enhancer.

Former Heavyweight Champion Ingemar Johansson has passed away at the age of 76. His death is particularly saddening for Evander Holyfield, who was hoping to fight him sometime next month.

Michael Irvin is producing a new reality TV show in which he'll give one guy off the street a spot on the Dallas Cowboys. The show is tentatively titled, "Pacman Jones."

And Terrell Owens has agreed to star in a VH-1 reality show loosely based on the network's previous hit, "Scott Baio Is 45 & Single." Owens' show will be titled, "Terrell Owens is 35 and Unbearable."

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Suns managing partner Robert Sarver has said he still believes his team can win the NBA championship. He also believes the Cardinals can still win the Super Bowl.

Lakers center Andrew Bynum will be out for 8-12 weeks with a knee injury. Kobe Bryant is upset, as he was really enjoying not passing to him.

A new report shows that baseball commissioner Bud Selig made more money than all but three baseball players in 2007. Wow, that's half a million dollars for every bad decision.

President Obama is sending a women's badminton team to Iran this week. It's less expensive than soldiers, and more offensive to the Iranian government.

And former Welterweight champion Antonio Margarito faces possible suspension after plaster was allegedly found in his gloves. John Daly will testify in Margarito's defense, since he's also been competing plastered.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Arizona Cardinals plan to donate thousands of Super Bowl "championship" T-shirts to poor families in El Salvador. Which will be easy, since that's where the shirts are made.

Comcast accidentally aired a 30 second porn clip during its broadcast of the Super Bowl and has offered customers who saw it $10 as an apology. Because if there's one thing that can make it okay that your seven-year-old just saw pornography, it's ten bucks.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a perfect 23-0 at home. It's believed to be the first time that the words "Cleveland" and "perfect" have ever been uttered in the same sentence.

Paris Hilton was recently spotted making out with Barry Zito at a Hollywood hotspot. For those of you keeping score at home, Hilton has now worked her way through the entire alphabet.

And officials for AC Milan said that lawyers for David Beckham are negotiating with the LA Galaxy. They set up a meeting of lawyers when someone challenged them to schedule something more boring than American soccer.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The participants in the NBA's first officially sanctioned H-O-R-S-E competition will instead be spelling out G-E-I-C-O. Players are happy the event is not sponsored by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance.

The Continental Basketball Association has ended its regular season two months early due to a lack of funding. And we'll end this story right now, due to lack of interest.

Animal Planet is producing a new 12-part series that will take viewers into the lives of jockeys. Even though it's 12 parts, it's still a mini series.

Kelly Clark of the United States is the latest winner of the World Cup halfpipe event. The winner of the full pipe event was Michael Phelps.

And Kellogg has announced it will not renew its sponsorship deal with Michael Phelps. Fortunately he should have no problem picking up a deal from Honey Bunches of Hemp.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Cleveland Cavaliers finally lost a home game. Somehow, the Cleveland Indians have already lost one, too.

Olympic gymnast Shawn Johnson will appear on "Dancing With the Stars." Meanwhile, Chinese gymnasts will appear on "Dora the Explorer."

The New York Mets are claiming they won't be hurt in any way by Bernie Madoff's web of deceit. Unfortunately, the team can't say the same thing about their bullpen.

Rotund outfielder Andruw Jones has signed a one-year contract with the Rangers. It's official - everything is bigger in Texas.

And the Atlanta Braves offered 42-year-old Tom Glavine a one-year contract. The Braves aren't particularly excited about resigning Glavine. They just wanted to see a baseball contract written in English.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Alex Rodriguez apologized for his steroid use, and expects fans to forgive him, especially hes never used any in October. By owning up to his past indiscretions, Rodriguez has shown he's smarter than Barry Bonds. Then again, a single celled amoeba nursing a hangover is also smarter than Barry Bonds.

The Dallas Cowboys have officially cut Pacman Jones. And they did it on a giant mirror with a huge razor blade.

The New York Rangers have expressed interest in Sean Avery. In related news, the rest of the NHL has expressed interest in Sean Avery's sloppy seconds.

And Minnesota Timberwolves center Al Jefferson is done for the season with a torn ACL. The rest of the team is done for the season because they're the Timberwolves.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Congress has no plan to hold a hearing with Alex Rodriguez. Or for doing anything else, for that matter. Rodriguez is relieved, as most Congressmen are a bit too young for his tastes.

Members of a Marijuana advocacy group have written a strongly worded letter to Kellogg after the company cut ties with Michael Phelps. Kellogg was able to quiet the group by replying, "Dave's not here, man."

Kobe Bryant became the youngest player in NBA history to reach the 23,000-point plateau in a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The record is a bit tainted, since 22,000 of those points came against the Thunder.

And Brett Favre says he is retiring yet again. Special thanks to Michael Phelps, Alex Rodriguez, and Kobe Bryant for preventing this from being news.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Michael Jordan says he knows he made some bad decisions. Because he read the paper in the 1990s.

The Chicago Bulls are currently shopping Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Larry Hughes. The only Bull that appears to be safe is the team's mascot.

In the first round of NASCAR drug tests, all the drivers passed, but some pit crew members failed. In their defense, they thought it was just flaxseed motor oil.

A former girlfriend is suing Roberto Alomar, saying that the one-time slugger knowingly exposed her to HIV. Mets fans were shocked, as they thought only his batting average had a degenerative disease.

And organizers are beginning a World Bikini Football League with teams in ten different cities. The Detroit Lions are already 0-4.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Best Sports Writing and Brady's Bunch

Two new links in the sidebar:

Best Sports Writing brings together the best in book authors, mainstream reporters and columnists, and bloggers. And somehow I made the cut.

BradysBunch.net is the forum arm of Brady-Quinn.org. A perfect place for my target audience (ND fans and Cleveland fans) to talk about their dreamy poster boy.

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Detroit Lions have signed head coach Jim Schwartz to a four-year deal, or 64 losses, whichever come first.

Pirates chairman Bob Nutting recently told reporters that an MLB salary cap would make Pittsburgh more competitive. Provided that salary cap is half a million dollars.

The Baltimore Orioles traded for Cubs prospect Felix Pie. The Orioles traded for Pie in an effort to land Prince Fielder.

New York is beginning to disassemble Shea Stadium. The stadium's structure has been weakened ever since the team imploded.

And the Yankees have announced they will wear a special patch on their uniforms commemorating the inaugural season at their new stadium. The design will feature an enormous dollar sign being flushed down a toilet.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Pittsburgh and Arizona will square off in Super Bowl LXIII. The only thing that's undecided is where most of America will be when they don't watch the game.

Free agent pitcher Paul Byrd has decided to sit out the first half of the 2009 season. Byrd wanted to spend time with his family, but apparently will be sick of them by July.

The New York Jets are expected to hire Ravens coordinator Rex Ryan as their head coach. And since this doesn't involve a murder he witnessed, Ray Lewis is available for comment.

Cubs chairman Crane Kenney has said the sale of the team should happen any day now. Then again, Cubs fans have also been saying the same thing about a World Series title for the last 101 years.

And Roger Clemens' former trainer Brian McNamee recently met with federal investigators in Washington for five hours. The session would have been much shorter, but they decided to do some ab work.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

NHL officials have put the Yankees' new stadium at the top of their wish list for the next Winter Classic. In addition to being brand new, league officials also like the fact the venue should be completely vacant by October 1st.

The home of Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb was ransacked last weekend before the NFC Championship Game. Of course  it was being guarded by the Eagles' defense.

Stephon Marbury says he has a firm offer from at least one club. Unfortunately for him, it's a high school team in Tupelo.

New York Knick Jerome James will miss the rest of the season with a ruptured right Achilles' tendon. James was injured falling off the bench.

And Alonzo Mourning may return to the Miami Heat if he can get his body back in shape. If not, he'll go to the Knicks.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Detroit Pistons have lost five of their last six games. Looks like the city's auto makers aren't the only ones struggling to put together a good quarter.

NBA owners have reversed a longtime ban on serving hard liquor during live games, in an effort to make the Clippers more watchable.

NASCAR mainstay Michael Waltrip is considering retirement. He knew it was time when he was doing 40 on the left side of the track.

And a pair of Arizona Cardinals fans have been arrested for torching Donovan McNabb's lawn. The torching had nothing to do with football, that's just considered lawn care in Arizona. What a bad day for the Cardinals  half of their fans got arrested.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Washington Wizards coach Ed Tapscott said Barack Obama has a standing invitation to stop by practice anytime he wants. And to play guard.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have announced they'll wear their white pants for Super Bowl XLIII. And because theyre in Florida, they also plan on hiking them up to their chests.

The Cleveland Browns have laid off 15 people in the past two days. Luckily they're all defensive players so no one should even notice.

The Brewers say they're close on a deal with Prince Fielder. Fielder was unavailable for comment, because there was still a buffet open somewhere.

And the City of Detroit has approved a $27 million plan to preserve Tiger Stadium. It's nice to hear that the Detroit Lions aren't the only useless relics the city is willing to support.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Longtime Utah owner Larry H. Miller has had his legs amputated six inches below the knee. And we thought the Jazz were looking shaky.

Jose Canseco and Danny Bonaduce fought to a draw in their highly-hyped three-round boxing match. The fight had no winner, but still managed to have two losers.

The soon-to-open NASCAR Hall of Fame will honor five inductees a year. Fans are thrilled - that's a new inductee every 6 months!

LeBron James dropped in 33 points against the Jazz. James scored so much, Utah made him an honorary Mormon.

And figure skater Ekaterina Rubleva accidentally exposed her nipple in front of thousands of fans during the European Figure Skating Championships in Helsinki. The mishap would have been even more embarrassing if any of the guys watching were straight.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The NBA could be headed towards a lockout in 2011. Luckily many of the players have a history of breaking and entering.

A Greek basketball team is looking to take on one of several NBA players including Stephon Marbury, Jamaal Tinsley, Jason Williams or Steve Francis. I'm sorry, did I say Greek basketball team? I meant Greek charity.

Sugar Shane Mosley regained the welterweight title over the weekend. He may be close to retiring, however, because after the fight, he called himself "Splenda" Shane Mosley.

And rumors say that the 49ers are angling to get Michael Vick once the QB comes out of prison. Mike Singletary has already been warned to keep his pants up. San Francisco - definitely a town where Vick won't have trouble finding a studded collar.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The New York Yankees have received an additional $259 million in public funding. The team is expected to use the money on half an outfielder.

Atlanta Hawks guard Acie Law has bet a friend $10,000 that the Dallas Cowboys will win next year's Super Bowl. Law will probably lose, but that's just because he's on the Hawks.

Bucks guard Michael Redd will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL and MCL. In other words, Milwaukee is now SOL.

Veteran pitcher Brandon Lyon has agreed to a $4.25 million, one-year contract with the Detroit Tigers. Maybe a Detroit Lyon will finally win a game.

And Mark Gottfried has resigned as Alabama's basketball coach. In related news, Alabama's Jewish population has been cut in half.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

A recent poll encourages Shane Mosley to retire on top, after his destructive victory over Antonio Margarito. For non-boxing fans, "retire" is an industry term for "wait until I'm bored, and demand more money."

The Celtics will be without Brian Scalabrine indefinitely after he sustained his second concussion in three days. When reached for comment, Scalabrine said, "fire bad!"

Manny Ramirez remains unsigned. And ungroomed.

The Lingerie Bowl has been cancelled due to a conflict over the amount of nudity allowed in the event. On the positive side, football fans can still look forward to seeing the Arizona Cardinals thoroughly undressed.

And Ken Griffey, Jr. could return to play for the Mariners, saying he wants to be in familiar territory. Which we can only assume means last place, in an empty stadium.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Officials for the New York Mets said season ticket sales are doing well for the new ballpark. Especially popular are the new "first six innings" and "April through August" plans.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court has ruled that high school cheerleading is a contact sport. Although most of the contact is with a stripper pole 5 years later.

Aptly named former NBA player Corie Blount was recently busted with 11 pounds of marijuana. Or, as Ricky Williams calls it, a single serving.

Bobby Bowden has signed a one-year contract to coach a 34th season at Florida State. Bowden has been at the school so long he remembers when football players actually had to take their own exams.

And former NFL star Michael Strahan has been chosen to host the fourth season of Spike TV's "Pros vs. Joes." The show is not to be confused with "Pros vs. Hoes" which is a documentary about a Minnesota Vikings' boat cruise.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Happy MLK Day

Sabermetrics 101: Fielding Statistics

Don't worry, there is very little math involved this time.

For many years, sabermetricians ignored fielding, at least partially because it was so much harder to quantify compared to hitting.

The original fielding metric is fielding percentage, (outs + assists)/(outs + assists + errors). That was fine in the 1800s, when it's been argued that players weren't expected to catch anything that wasn't hit right at them. To this day, errors are still subject to the opinion of the official scorer, as witnessed recently by CC Sabathia's lost no hitter on a bunt single and Orlando Cabrera's in-game call to the press box to have an error changed to a hit.

So errors and fielding percentage are probably not the best way to judge a fielder. Then, what is? Arguably, there are two ways to do so: noting whether a fielder got to a ball (or whether they should have), and whether they actually fielded it once they got there. (Throwing ability - accuracy and strength - are another issue, but we won't go into that today.) Brian Cartwright wrote an excellent piece for Fangraphs the other day, explaining why fielders with poor range are better at actually fielding the ball, and vice-versa.

Other Fielding Statistics

As mentioned above, sabermetricians avoided fielding for a long time because it was difficult to quantify. Now, a variety of fielding measures exist, and still we have none that stands head and shoulders above the rest. Here are just a few metrics that exist today.

• Range Factor: Bill James' first crack at a fielding statistic, Range Factor is the number of plays a fielder makes per nine innings. In other words, it's basically the fielding equivalent of ERA. Of course, like ERA the system has its drawbacks. For example, the type of pitcher (flyball vs. ground ball) will affect the number of chances a fielder has in a game.


• Zone Rating: STATS Inc. divided the field into zones and calculates Zone Rating as the number of outs made in a fielder's designated zones divided by the total number of balls hit into that zone.


• John Dewan's Plus/Minus: Like many of these fielding stats, Plus/Minus involves watching video of every single play over the course of a season and charting whether a fielder should have made the play. In this case, Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) assigns a "plus" for every play made that someone else at that position didn't make, and a "minus" for every play not made that someone else at that position made.


• Probabilistic Model of Range: Created by Dave Pinto, a former ESPN and STATS, Inc. statistician, PMR is another way of comparing a fielder's performance relative to his peers. PMR views the field as a right angle, and breaks fielding down by angle relative to the foul lines. That information can be used to create graphs like this one, which shows that in 2008, Grady Sizemore was slightly above average (compared to other center fielders) on fly balls hit to his right, but slightly below average on flies to his left.


• Ultimate Zone Rating: A continuation of Zone Rating, Mitchel Lichtman's UZR is actually calculated two ways: using BIS's data and using STATS Inc.'s data. Here is a comparison of the two UZR ratings and PMR.


• Fan Scouting Report: For those of you that don't like math at all (except for counting), this is the stat for you. Tangotiger's Fan Scouting Report is a crowdsourced scouting report that ranks fielders in terms of instincts, first step, speed, hands, release, arm strength, and throwing accuracy.


• : If the Fan Scouting Report is perfect for those who don't like math, than Colin Wyers' graphs are perfoect for those who don't even like words. Colin simply took the location of every fielded ball and plotted it on a graph, with a baseball field laid as the backround. Here's a comparison of Troy Tulowitzki and Derek Jeter's 2007 fielding.

The Next Steps

Fielding statistics still have many unsolved questions, but two of the main issues are determining a fielder's starting position, and determining teammates' influence on fielding statistics.

The comments of this thread have a discussion of fielders' starting position. As the charting and video coverage of games improve (PitchF/X, HitF/X, and the work BIS and STATS do), this area will improve as well. Of course, starting position needs to be taken in context. If a fielder is always standing in the right place at the right time, they certainly should get credit for knowing where to stand (or at least his coaches should get credit). But standing in the right place means he won't have as far to run to get to a ball, and therefore it will seem as if he doesn't have much range. So statisticians will have to be careful not to punish him for that.

Another issue is the affect teammates have on each other. For example, on a ball hit between the first and second baseman, the first baseman has the first attempt at the ball because he's positioned closer to first base. A second baseman would only have a chance at the ball if the first baseman couldn't get to it.

Take a look at the PMR ground ball charts for Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Albert Pujols, and Aaron Miles. At first it looks like Miles is below average at ground balls towards first base. But perhaps that is because Pujols is getting to many of the balls that normally would have gone through to his second baseman. Likewise, Chase Utley appears to be great at getting ground balls towards first base, but only because Ryan Howard is below average at fielding balls in that direction. Trade Utley for Miles (a move the Phillies surely would never make), and you would probably see Utley's PMR decline and Miles' improve.

Of course, PMR also does not indicate starting position. Knowing that Howard isn't a great fielder, maybe Utley positions himself a little closer to first base to make up for it. And maybe Miles positions himself a little farther from second base to account for Pujols' range. But if that was the case, you would expect Utley to have below-average performance on balls hit towards second base, and Miles to have above-average performance. In reality, the graphs show that Utley is above average in both directions, while Miles is only average on balls hit towards second base. So, Utley had a phenomenal 2008 in the field, a fact corroborated by his unheard of +47 rating in John Dewan's Plus/Minus system.

The Jhonny Peralta Problem

One of the big questions for Cleveland Indians fans is Jhonny Peralta's defense. Most fans want him to move to third base, but in the past I have suggested a move to second base.

How does Peralta rate as a shortstop? According to PMR (2006, 2007, 2008), he's actually around average on grounders, and maybe even a little above average on fly balls and liners. But UZR gives him a negative rating for every year after his rookie season.

Working on the assumption that he's a below-average shortstop (even if that disagrees with PMR), where should he move? As per this discussion, shortstop is the most difficult position on the field besides catcher. So a move anywhere would improve Peralta's defense, in theory. In his limited time at third, Peralta has been at least average according to PMR and UZR.

There is no data on Peralta at second because he hasn't played there, but there is the Fan Scouting Report. Peralta's 2008 report says he has excellent arm strength, very good throwing accuracy, and almost average hands and release (with 50 being average in all categories). He also has poor ratings in instincts, first step, and speed. First step and speed are more important to a second baseman than arm strength and quick release, so we can probably rule out moving Peralta there. The combination of arm strength, accuracy, hands, and release are exactly what to look for in a third baseman. Instincts would arguably be nice as well, but the hot corner is as much about reaction as it is about instinct.

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

A 72-year-old woman recently discovered a rare baseball card from 1869. It has been authenticated as an official Jamie Moyer rookie card.

Jason Giambi has promised to bring his infamous gold thong back to Oakland. It will be the second most pointless thing in his locker, just behind his glove.

Pacman Jones plans to sue ESPN over allegations that he arranged to have three men shot at an Atlanta nightclub. It should be interesting for him to finally be on the other side of a lawsuit.

The Kansas City Royals have announced plans to make major renovations to Kauffman Stadium. They'll be able to afford a lot, what with all the money they save by not fielding a baseball team.

And TNT analyst Charles Barkley is taking a leave of absence from the broadcast chair. The chair is thrilled.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Titans are upset that a delay-of-game penalty was not called during the Ravens winning drive last Sunday. So much time had elapsed on that play, Jeff Fisher actually grew back his mullet.

Quarterback Tim Tebow is returning to Florida, turning down a great opportunity to become Ryan Leaf.

Pacman Jones said his days in Dallas aren't necessarily over. Partly because hes not allowed to leave the state. Texas farmers are hoping Jones sticks around, since they need someone to make it rain.

And Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb got in trouble when he picked up the Giants bench phone after he went out of bounds. In his defense, McNabb was just calling the league office to ask how overtime works.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Rickey Henderson has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. That is a direct quote from Rickey Henderson. Henderson's induction will mean a great thing for baseball  namely that he'll stop talking about a comeback.

The Detroit Lions have interviewed Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz for their coaching vacancy. Interview is a polite way of saying, "begged."

Knicks center Eddy Curry has been accused of trying to solicit gay sex from his driver. It's a surprising accusation for a player who's never shown much interest in sticking to his man.

And coach Tony Dungy retired from the Colts. Just a few weeks after the rest of his team.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Kentucky guard Jodie Meeks scored a school record 54 points in a rousing victory over Tennessee. Meeks later topped his record by inheriting the earth.

Herm Edwards could return as head coach of the Chiefs. In a related story, Herm Edwards might be clinically insane.

The Detroit Tigers have signed Taiwanese pitcher Fu-Te Ni to a multimillion dollar contract. The Tigers were livid to discover that Ni was just a cheap knock off, made in Taiwan.

Former Dallas receiver Michael Irvin says two gunmen approached his car but drove off after they talked about the Cowboys. What are the odds that two gunmen would be Cowboys fans?

And the Lions have reached out to Dolphins assistant coach Todd Bowles regarding their coaching vacancy. The news comes as a surprise to many insiders who thought the team would already be onto the "C" section of the phonebook.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Federal officials said that there are no credible threats for the upcoming Super Bowl. There was the possibility that the stadium could dramatically implode, but that already happened to the Giants.

Knicks center Eddy Curry is considering a defamation suit against his former driver. Given his expanding waistline, it's probably much smaller than his other suits.

Kate Hudson has been spotted on dates with Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez and PGA golfer Adam Scott during the past week. Alyssa Milano must be on vacation.

In honor of the big game coming up, Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahll is temporarily changing his name to Luke Steelerstahll. In a similar move, Disney is re-releasing "Remember the Titans" under the new title "Remember the Three Red Zone Turnovers."

And T-Mobile has terminated their relationship with Charles Barkley due to his recent DUI arrest. T-Mobile was jealous, since Barkley has more bars.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won all 17 home games thus far. That makes them the only 12 people who enjoy being in Cleveland.

Houston has fired three coaches including defensive coordinator Richard Smith. The last time this many Texans were axed, Davy Crockett was there.

The Chicago Cubs have signed Aaron Miles to a two-year contract. Which is perfect, because last year they were miles away from a championship.

Chad Pennington has been named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year for the second time in three seasons. So when he stinks next year, he can win it again after that.

And Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has been named the NFL's Most Valuable Player for the third time in his career. His first round loss gives him plenty of time to polish the trophy.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Mets are reportedly uninterested in signing Andruw Jones. What a shame - at his weight, he could play left and center field.

John Daly has been suspended for six months by the PGA tour. Luckily for him, he's expected to find plenty of work with the AA tour. Daly plans on using his time off to complete half a binge.

The Bobcats are reportedly interested in rotund center Eddy Curry. Not as their new center, but as their new mascot uniform.

And a construction worker at the new Yankee Stadium was taken to a hospital after falling off a mobile scaffold. The collapse was so sudden, it was almost like he was employed by the Mets.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Former American Gladiators star Nitro has admitted to using steroids while he was on the show in the early 90's. In related news, scientists have discovered that water is wet and chocolate is delicious.

Major League Baseball suspended Philadelphia's J.C. Romero for 50 games after ruling him "negligent." Using the same charge, the Mets suspended the guy who opens the door to their bullpen.

Scott Pioli, the vice president for player personnel with the Patriots, interviewed with the Kansas City Chiefs about their GM position. Pioli might instead take an easier job, like healing lepers or turning water into wine.

Andy Pettitte has rejected the Yankees' one-year, $10 million offer. Pettitte said he refused to be paid less than the team's bat boy.

And the Green Bay Packers fired six of their coaches. And since the exit was guarded by the team's defense, all six walked out untouched.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Seattle Mariners have acquired Tyler Walker to be their new closer. His job will be to lock up the bullpen after everyone leaves.

Shaquille O'Neal has just re-listed his Miami Beach estate for $25 million, which is $10 million less than its original asking price. A Shaq product hasn't fetched this little interest since Kazaam.

Carmelo Anthony recently hurt his hand in a win over Indiana. The injury is especially disconcerting for Anthony since it's his rolling hand.

Boston College coach Jeff Jagodzinski is expected to be fired after interviewing with the New York Jets. Not because of disloyalty, but because it's now obvious that he lacks good decision-making skills.

And Alex Rodriquez was recently spotted getting close with 60-year-old fashion designer Donna Karan. At the rate hes going, his next girlfriend might be a pile of dust.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Dallas Cowboys have released troubled cornerback Pacman Jones. Who, oddly enough, was the least of their problems.

David Beckham is currently charging $700,000 per interview. Which is $350,000 for every interesting thing he has to say.

WNBA star Candace Parker is expecting her first child this spring, making her the first professional basketball player in history to take part in a planned pregnancy.

Jason Giambi said that being back in Oakland brings back a lot of memories. Mainly because BALCO is right nearby.

And Warren Sapp recently challenged Michael Phelps to a televised swimming duel. Sapp was doing surprisingly well until the harpoon got him.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Cleveland Indians WAR Spreadsheet

Thanks to the hard-working Sky Kalkman over at Beyond the Boxscore, here's a spreadsheet of the Indians 2009 predicted Wins Above Replacement (WAR).



Some notes:

• For hitting and pitching, I used the CHONE projections. On Sky's suggestion, I also used the quick-and-dirty formula (OBP*1.75 + SLG)/3 to approximate wOBA.


• I included Luis Valbuena on offense to get closer to the "recommended" number of outs. As you can see, I'm still short. I'm not doing this as an endorsement of Valbuena over Barfield; CHONE has nearly identical plate appearances and wOBA for the two, making them interchangeable for the purposes of this exercise. I did leave out Andy Marte, since the popular assumption is that his time in Cleveland is short.


• While my spreadsheet falls short of the recommended outs on offense, adding players (and therefore outs) actually increases offensive WAR in most cases. So, take this as a low-end projection.


• Baserunning numbers are from Baseball Prospectus's EqBRR. I just used the 2008 numbers, so obviously there's room for improvement there.


• For fielding, I used UZR from Fangraphs. I took a straight average of each player's UZR from 2006-2008 (when available). Obviously, a weighted average probably would have been better.


• I also ignored position when taking UZR. This is mostly because I'm convinced the Indians will try some experimenting on the infield to get it right. But at the same time, I didn't want to guess how many innings each player would log at each position.


• For the rotation, I started with the four known quantities - Lee, Carmona, Pavano (who will hopefully top that inning projection), and Reyes. Then I started filling in the best available players based on the CHONES until I got to the recommended inning count.


• For the relievers, I followed the current Indians.com depth chart until I got to the recommended number of innings. But that doesn't necessarily mean I endorse that depth chart.

What does this all mean? If I filled in the spreadsheet correctly, the Indians project to a 90 win team. That's right on the cusp of the playoffs, which is exactly where the Indians want to be.

The Class of 2009

We had decent voter turnout this year, 8. Again due to the diversity of nominees, I set the induction threshold at 4 votes, and four individuals met that mark.


Buck O'Neil: He's a hall of famer to me, and that's alright with him.


Erin: She was already awesome. And then she agreed to marry me.


Fr. Edmund P. "Ned" Joyce, CSC: In Andy's words, Fr. Joyce is the ultimate sidekick, and as Aflac pointed out, he " advanced the causes of ND athletics, and has a building named after him that has hosted commencements, presidents, career fairs, basketball games, hockey games, boxing matches, volleyball games, U2, and racquetball "matches" between Aflac, Yonto, Katy, and the light fixture."


Fr. Edward Sorin, CSC: Without him, there literally would be no Notre Dame. And without Notre Dame, where would any of us be?

Now, the also rans. Also always, those that received multiple votes will get one carryover vote next year.

Name	Total	Comment
Brady Quinn	2	I'm starting to think he was even more amazing then people realized at the time
Dave	2
F-bomb	2	Why not? I'm just sayin'
Klondike	2	noted sport creator/improver
Knute Rockne	2	FOOTBALL!
Rebecca Rose Hatton	2
Aflac Duck	1	Gave me a nickname. Poses interesting trivia questions. Still contributing to cancer research.
Beer	1
Happy New Year!	1	I just ran out of focus here...especially after celebrating the previous vote!
bill belichick	1	An interesting coach who seems to hire assistants who are just good enough not to take his job
Bratwurst	1	mmmMmmm
Coach Jackson	1	another #1
Detroit Red Wings	1
Evan Sharpley's shoes	1
Fair Catch Corby	1	I have a mini version of that statue on my bookshelf!
Golden Tate	1
Jerome Bettis	1	ND alum, Super Bowl winner, Restaurant owner.
Joe Posnanski	1
JOHN GOCHNAUR	1	according to Google Gochnaur could be arguably the worst baseball player ever
Kuntz's hair	1
Maurice Crum Jr.	1	all heart on and off the field
Michael Floyd	1	might as well just put him in now... and hope he does have a Kamara-esque soph year
Michael Phelps	1
Mike Anello	1	for Heisman
Mr. T	1
Nachos	1	mmmm
Owen Sixteen	1	star of the Detroit Lions
Peyton Manning	1
Regis Philbin	1	The definition of fired-up-old-guy.
Sam Sanchez	1
Steve Yzerman	1
Touchdown Jesus	1	Think anyone will get confused when people start yelling "Touchdown Crist!"?
women's soccer team/dynasty	1	even if they don't win it all this year, 3 straight final fours, and keeping Grace Hall lit up all semester is appreciated

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Lions slipped to 0-15 after losing 42-7 to the Saints. On the positive side, the team is just one more loss away from a massive congressional bailout.

After their loss this weekend, the Dallas Cowboys' playoff hopes look bleak. But the city's strip clubs are looking forward to an early start to their busy season.

46-year-old Evander Holyfield lost his bid to regain the heavyweight belt when he fell to Nikolai Valuev. Holyfield is so old he was just offered an extension from Penn State.

Herm Edwards said that he's not quitting as coach of the Chiefs. Which is great, for anyone whose fantasy league includes points for futility.

And a woman has pleaded no contest to stalking Lakers forward Luke Walton. The California resident has been sentenced to three years' probation, told to attend counseling, and encouraged to set her sights a little bit higher.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Vince Young is suing former major leaguer Enos Cabell for trying to use the initials "VY" and the nickname "Invinceable" to sell products without his permission. To retaliate, Young will be marketing products with the initials "EC" and the nickname "Irrelevant."

Barry Bonds recently told TMZ that he's still "not retired." Which is unfortunate because America is "not interested."

Pittsburgh Pirates star Jack Wilson said that to compete, the team needs more quality players. And steroids. And four outs per inning. And for other teams to forfeit.

Chicago is excited for the Blackhawks' hockey game at Wrigley Field next month. Though fans are being warned that it's going to be so cold, it will be what hell feels like when the Cubs win a World Series.

And NASCAR has announced it will begin testing its drivers for performance-enhancing substances in January. Drivers will be tested for 13 different narcotics, ten different barbiturates and seven varieties of moonshine.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Members of the San Francisco 49ers grew moustaches this weekend to go along with their throwback uniforms. But since it is San Francisco, wearing a costume and growing a mustache is hardly expected to stand out.

Tom Brady is rumored to have proposed to his girlfriend Gisele Bundchen on Christmas Eve. It's nice to hear that at least one Patriot will be getting a ring this year.

The New York Yankees have signed back-up catcher Kevin Cash. They plan to use half a billion of him to pay for their other free agents.

MMA fighter Justin Eilers was killed in a domestic dispute, marking the third such death in MMA. This proves what boxers have long since known: fighting at home is not always an advantage.

And a winless Detroit Lion was quoted calling their final game against Green Bay, "our super bowl". They're right  in that the winner won't play another game til next season.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

LaDanian Tomlinson reported he may have hurt his groin in the Chargers 52-21 win over the Broncos. This is convenient as now San Diego has only been in the playoffs for a day, and they already have their excuse for the inevitable collapse.

The Denver Broncos became the first NFL team to ever lead a division for 16 weeks and not make the playoffs. To commemorate the event, they will officially change their name to the Mets.

Louisiana Tech beat Northern Illinois to win the Independence Bowl. Yeah, we are soooo glad there's no playoff system.

The Red Sox agreed to terms with Brad Penny. He would have signed with the Yankees, but they said his name indicates that he's nine million dollars and ninety nine cents below their pay grade.

And a sports medicine clinic in Houston will remove Roger Clemens' name from their building. In a similar story, management will remove Jose Canseco's name from his shirt at Jiffy Lube.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Notre Dame Baseball Alumni Mini-Update

• Former head coach Paul Mainieri quietly released a book, The Mainieri Factor. I say "quietly," because I came across it accidentally a few weeks ago despite the fact that it was published a year ago.


• Brant Ust has apparently hung up the cleats on a nine-year minor league career. Ust currently lives in Ann Arbor and joined the University of Michigan as a volunteer assistant coach. Ust played almost 250 games at the AAA level, but was never suited up in a major league uniform.


• Meanwhile, current Notre Dame outfielder AJ Pollock continues to rack up the accolades. He was recently named the 10th best player in the country by The College Baseball Blog, and Project Prospect's Lincoln Hamilton ranks Pollock as the second best draft-eligible hitter.

Notre Dame Football 2008Issue 13: Hawaii

As an experiment, I crowdsourced my bowl preview, and two brave souls responsed. My own thoughts are at the end.

In the interest of time, and because they just flow better that way, I'm leaving everyone's previews intact.

Aflac

Now, I don't study depth charts or stats to the degree that Kanka does, so don't expect in-depth position-by-position reviews out of me. I'm just a fired-up guy who enjoys a good game of football. And if I hadn't just read the most recent crowdsourced article on this site, I'd be tempted to accuse Kanka of being lazy, but I like being involved, I have some free time this weekend, and look: names in bold, integrated links -- I'm turning into a regular blogger!

I don't know anything about Hawaii's team, and I'm too lazy to look it up (see what happens when you crowdsource your articles to a group of equally lazy people?). I also don't have much to say about ND's team at this point that hasn't already been said. I just hope that Charlie isn't so focused on recruiting that he doesn't take the game seriously. Sure, the long-term health of the program is more important than a single bowl game, but I'm sick of hearing about how ND hasn't won a bowl game in 15 years, so it would be nice to get a postseason win.

Since I don't have anything intelligent to say, I'm going to do what all good football commentators do and start rambling on about intangibles and personal experience anecdotes.

This is going to be a tough environment for ND to play in. I stop short of calling it a "hostile" environment, because I'm not sure how hostile any place that has pretty girls handing out floral leis to everyone coming off an airplane can be. But seriously, this is far from a neutral location. It's essentially a home game for Hawaii, so expect to see a lot of whatever their colors are in the stands (again, too lazy to even look it up). It reminds me of the 2003 Gator Bowl in Jacksonville. ND played NC State, and the stadium was full of Wolfpack fans not only because of the location, but also because NC State secured their spot in the game far earlier than ND did, giving their fans a jump on buying tickets. I expect to see more of the same here.

They're also not bringing the band. From a dollars-and-cents point of view, I can see why, but if I were still in the band, I'd be pretty upset. The bowl trip is just as much a reward for the band as it is for the team. And as an ND fan, it's great to hear "the greatest of all university fight songs" at ND football games (even though we don't call it that outside of ND Stadium). The band provides (to quote someone from some movie) what the French call a certain... I don't know what.

If any of you are lucky enough to get to attend the game, here are some useful Hawaiian phrases:
Mele Kalikimaka: "Merry Christmas"
Mahalo: I thought this meant "Trash" because that's what's printed on the trash cans at this little Hawaiian place we go to lunch sometimes, but it actually means "Thanks"
Ho'opa i lalo: "Touchdown". Actually, I don't know if that's really true. I just looked up the words "touch" and "down" and stuck the resulting translations together. Use at your own risk.
Joi'aga: That doesn't really mean anything. I just accidentally set my coffee cup down on my keyboard. By the way, they supposedly have good coffee in Hawaii.
Aloha: Both "Hello" and "Goodbye". Who invented this silly language?

Kanka: if you can turn any bit of this into a semi-coherent article, I'll be downright amazed.

Go Irish, and Merry Christmas!

Dave

ND can absolutely win this game, but since it's a bowl game, who the hell knows if we'll show up. Hawaii definitely will, but they're not that good this year. Can we control the clock and avoid stupid turnovers? That will decide the game.

With nothing left to say, I'll just include the rant I emailed Kanka a short time ago:

"I hate the game on Christmas Eve. Absolutely hate it. I can't believe the university put its alumni and fans in such a weird spot. "Go to church, spend time with family, or watch the bowl game" is pretty much the message. So odd. I'm going to Michigan with Colleen and her family tomorrow morning, and her dad's big family get-together is tomorrow night. Clearly I must watch the game, but I'd rather not come off like a totally anti-social d-bag in front of many people I've not met and who will be traveling a far distance for our wedding. Absolutely horrendous decision."

Kanka

This has the potential to be a sloppy game, as both teams have struggled with turnovers. Hawaii has thrown over 16 interceptions, but most of those have come from Inoke Funaki (INDEED). Funaki was replaced by Greg Alexander, who has a stellar 12 to 4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Hawaii uses a four receiver look almost exclusively, and Notre Dame has said will counter with the nickel for most of the game. While Sergio Brown and Harrison Smith have improved their pass coverage over the course of the year, I'd like to see Robert Blanton and/or Gary Gray play nickel/dime back, so all of Notre Dame's most talented corners can be on the field at the same time. Terrail Lambert is back for this one, so that will be a big help. (Lost in the shuffle of the 38-3 loss to USC was the fact that ND was playing without its two "starting" corners, Lambert and Darrin Walls.)

Hawaii distributes the ball pretty evenly, so everyone in the Irish pass defense will have to be on their toes at all times. But they have the talent to do it, and they also have the talent to blitz early and often against a team that is worst in the nation at allowing sacks. But ND also has to be alert for the occasional draw, something they struggled with against San Diego State in the opener.

The Warriors defense gets in the backfield a lot, led by end David Veikune. Hopefully, the Irish will keep extra blockers back to protect Jimmy Clausen. This essentially means taking the tight end and/or running back out of the passing game. But fortunately Michael Floyd will be back, so Hawaii's secondary won't be able to concentrate all their efforts on Golden Tate. Hopefully that extra protection and the dual threat of Floyd and Tate will help Clausen keep the ball away from Hawaii's ball-hawking safeties.

Look for a big game from everyone. Go Irish, beat Warriors.

Notre Dame-Hawaii By The Numbers

Vegas Odds

The line is starting to move on this one. Originally Hawaii was a 1.5 point favorite, but now they're anywhere between there and a 1.5 point underdog to the Irish. They're a saying that you automatically give the home team 3 points. Well, despite the fact that Notre Dame will be wearing the dark jerseys, the Warriors have the home field advantage in this one. Of course, I've also heard that Notre Dame automatically gets 3 points in their favor on the line due to their following. Those 3 points of course cancel out the three given to Hawaii for home field advantage.

Computer Rankings

Below are the six computer rankings used by the BCS, and Notre Dame and Hawaii's position in each. As you can see, it's very tight.
55

	Notre Dame	Hawaii
Sagarin	60	61
Anderson & Hester	57	63
Billingsley	69	65
Colley	60	59
Massey		59
Wolfe	62	59
Average	60.5	61

But those aren't the only computer rankings out there. Jeff Sagarin also includes on his website (rather bitterly) another ranking, called his PREDICTOR, that relies heavily on margin of victory. In that, Notre Dame is 62nd and Hawaii 95th.

The Fremeau Efficiency Index, used by Football Outsiders and housed at BCS Toys, has Notre Dame at 47 and Hawaii at 101. In addition, BCF Toys is calling the game a lock, with an 88% degree of confidence that Notre Dame will win 30-10.

Stastical Trends

Finally, here's a quick-and-dirty regression analysis. For each game this season, I took Notre Dame's points for and against, and rushing, passing, and total yards for and against. Excel gave me the following coefficients:

Stat	Coefficient
Y-Intercept	0.76
Points For	0.01
Points Against	-0.03
Rushing For	0.06
Rushing Against	-0.07
Passing For	0.06
Passing Against	-0.07
Total For	-0.06
Total Against	0.07

Like I said, it's a very quick-and-dirty model. I'm not even sure if the variables I used are reliable predictors of wins and losses. Of course, the small sample size of 12 games is also an issue. But this is all something I can work on next year.

Anyways, plugging Hawaii's season averages into this model gives Notre Dame a 57% chance of winning.

Conclusion

If you're a fan of what the stat nerds have to say, this will be a close one, with a slight edge to Notre Dame. Still, there are many more factors to consider, and time permitting I'll cover those in my next preview. Go Irish!

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The New York Mets signed Angels reliever Francisco Rodriguez. Rodriguez said that while he had many offers on the table, this was the one that allowed him to be the only relief pitcher on the team.

The floundering Arena Football League delayed the release of their 2009 schedule for the third time. It's understandable, because it'd be embarrassing to release a blank piece of paper.

The NFL Players' Association is somehow challenging the four-game suspension the Giants handed to Plaxico Burress. The Players' Association is expected to win, mainly because they're armed.

The Atlanta Dream got the first pick in the WNBA draft. Unfortunately, they can not use it to draft fans.

And the poor economy is even affecting the NFL, who will be cutting 150 employees. We're hoping most of them will be the Detroit Lions.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Kings defeated the Lakers this week. It was the most surprising beating involving Los Angeles since Rodney King.

Joey Porter said he has a handgun at home in Miami. He said he even takes it with him when he goes to America.

The New York Mets traded Aaron Heilman for JJ Putz, marking the first time in history that a Putz was traded for a putz.

And the New York Yankees signed CC Sabathia to a $161 million, seven-year deal. Sabathia will wear his number 52, but on David Wells' old uniform. The pressure on Sabathia from Yankee fans will be tremendous. Luckily, Sabathia has the girth to withstand it.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

The Washington Nationals reportedly have made a huge offer for slugger Mark Teixera. But he doesn't know about it because it's hard to hear voices coming from the cellar.

The coaches of all three Heisman finalists said they hope that success doesn't come with negative baggage for the star players. Which is a nice way of saying that they hope the players don't get drafted by Detroit.

Pacman Jones may miss the rest of the year. Unless he finds a blinking power pellet before it's too late.

The New York Giants have refused to pay $1 million of Plaxico Burress's signing bonus. In other words, the bookkeeper put his ballpoint pen on "safety."

And former trainer Brian McNamee said there is no chance that Roger Clemens will get into the Hall of Fame. Unless they move the Hall from Cooperstown to Mindy McCready's pants.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Plaxico Burress attended an event for a New York charity. The charity was the Giants new offense.

Oklahoma's Sam Bradford won the Heisman Trophy on Saturday. He said he hopes to use that stiff arm technique on the Detroit Lions when they try to draft him.

Newly acquired Francisco Rodriguez told the rest of the NL East that the Mets are the team to beat. That sound you hear is the rest of New York not holding their breath. The Mets are actually the team to beat, as proven by the Phillies the last two years.

And Sean Avery, who was suspended by the Dallas Stars, won't return to the team. Another team may pick him up, but only if they can call him "sloppy seconds."

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)
By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Rutgers athletic director Robert Mulcahy will step down. He wanted to announce it weeks ago, but he's been stuck in traffic on the New Jersey Turnpike.

The Arena Football League will shut down in 2009 to re-structure its business model. Terrell Owens complained that he wasn't included in the decision.

Iowa State coach Gene Chizik is taking the head coaching job at Auburn. His first order of business is to update his resume in case he doesn't beat Bama. Charles Barkley immediately criticized his alma mater for the hiring, saying that Auburn only hired Chizik because he's white. We're shocked, because this was the longest the state of Alabama has ever gone without being racist.

And the 46-year-old Jamie Moyer signed a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. When asked what he planned on wearing to the press conference, the aging hurler simply said, "depends."

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Buck's Hall

You may have seen the link in the top right of this blog, promoting what Buck O'Neil pictured as his last great legacy: a "Hall of Education" to complement the Negro Leagues Museum he helped build on the famous corner of 18th and Vine in Kansas City.

Now that hall is in trouble, thanks to some questionable politics surrounding the appointment of a new museum director. Joe Posnanski has more.

Oh, and don't forget to vote for Buck (and Joe Posnanski, if you wish) in this year's KankaNation hall of fame voting.

Notre Dame Football: Placing the Blame

This began as a lively discussion on the message board. I chopped up the discussion and presented the best quotes here. As you can see, the local readership is generally pro-Weis (if for no other reason than the lack of a suitable successor) and anti-Clausen.

Speaking of the message board, if you haven't been there before, why not stop by and say hi?

The Case For Charlie Weis

"Charlie brings a unique perspective to the position. Have you ever tried explaining to a non-Domer just how special ND is? It's nearly impossible. There's something about actually being there -- experiencing what it means to be part of the university family. As an alumnus, Charlie "gets it".

Suppose we find somebody new... what would they do differently? When Charlie was hired, he'd talk about flashing his 4 Super Bowl rings in front of prospective recruits, showing that he has what it takes to get them to "play on Sundays", and that's still legitimate. The other piece to the recruiting issue is the team's performance, and a coaching change isn't going to do anything (at least immediately) to change that." - Aflac

"I hear a lot of guff about how good or bad Weis is at his job. I hardly hear anything about how tough a job Weis has, either absolutely or relative to other teams with winning seasons.

Obviously, we should expect a great deal from our football coach. However, high expectations aren't the same as unreasonably high expectations. Where's the threshold...?" - Klondike

"The thing that gets me is that the media (and some fans) keep saying that Weis has only one win against ranked teams in the last 3 years. True, but that includes 2007, when they didn't beat anyone.

The important thing is that except in three cases (MSU, BC, USC), Notre Dame played their losses close to the very end. Unfortunately, young teams have a tendency to blow leads - that's nothing exclusive to this year's ND team. Now, next year when they're more experienced, they should be expected to win those games." - Kanka

"He's not Bob Davie complaining that we don't play more directional schools. He's not Ty Willingham, saying that 6-6 is good enough. He's not Urban Meyer, trying to cut deals to admit more academically questionable players. (As an aside, do you think the people who want Meyer now have forgotten about him saying that three years ago?)" - Kanka

"I think the fans are being short-sighted. If the season had gone the other way, beginning with disappointing losses and ending with maulings of Michigan, Purdue, and Washington, or if one or two of the losses had gone the other way, we wouldn't be hearing any of this talk. (Bear in mind, too, that ND's 38-3 loss to USC was only 3 points worse than OSU's.) Yes, we'd all like Notre Dame to compete for the national championship every year. But simply saying that (or yelling it, or typing it) doesn't make it possible." - Kanka

The Case Against Charlie Weis

"But at the same time, Gerry Faust "got it" so much that he went into the school's archives and found out that our true colors are gold and Madonna (light) blue. I'm sure Terry Brennan got it too. Heck, the people on this board get it, but I don't think any of us can lead the team to a National Championship." - Kanka

"I've never really liked Charlie. I think he is 20 times more cocky than Jimmy even though at least initially he backed that up. I think Charlie still sometimes thinks he's coaching a bunch of pros and if guys don't improve or decide to transfer or something, it's fine because he'll just go sign some experienced free agents in the off season to replace them. He basically doesn't care about the backups if they aren't freshmen. Then you have guys like DJ Hord and Richard Jackson transfer, George West, Floyd, and Parris all get hurt and you end up with 3 scholarship WRs for a game. Same thing with our TE situation. I know a ton of people who want him fired. I'm willing to give him another year mainly because there doesn't seem to be anyone better to replace him right now and once upon a time, it wasn't the Notre Dame way to fire a coach so quickly. He definitely needs to get a little humility though because right now he is not backing up his tough talk at all and it's making Notre Dame look stupid. There's a fine line between arrogance and confidence. Charlie is on the wrong side of that line. I'm really not sure how he recruits so well because if he came into my living room, I wouldn't be able to stand him. Maybe it works well because all the 5 star recruits are cocky as heck too and figure they will be the savior of ND football... then they get here and don't develop and end up looking like Jimmy Clausen. Charlie somehow needs to figure out how to develop talent because we do have talent, and I know they are working very hard, yet it is not showing on the field." - T

Firing Weis as a Business Decision

"Can ND afford to fire him? Of course. Even with his supposedly huge buyout, the university has the means to make it happen.

But who would replace him if they did?" - Aflac

"No question... it's Bush's fault.

I recommend a three-billion dollar bailout for ND Football. Of course, because of the Patsy T. Mink Equal Opportunity in Education Act we'll have to give another three billion dollars to the women's soccer team." - Klondike

"I'm sure the logistics of a coaching change play into a bit. The last few searches were ugly, and this team needs some stability." - Kanka

The Case For Jimmy Clausen

"He is definitely on the cocky side, but recently, I've started to think he's not quite as bad as he appears. I think he tries to be a good teammate and doesn't think he's above any of the other guys on the team. And just a side note, he would not be at a bar in a pink polo with a popped collar because he prefers to dress more hood, think baggy jeans, baseball hat cocked just so, etc... but he would have a blond or two hanging on his arms." - T

The Case Against Jimmy Clausen

"He had a rough year last year. I expected him to use the off-season to focus and improve, and he has to a point, but it's not enough. He still doesn't look like a Notre Dame quarterback, and at times he barely looks like a college-level QB. And when you look at the investment the university is making in him (conservatively, 5 years tuition + books + tutoring + etc = at least a quarter million), not to mention the 4 other QBs sitting on the bench, it adds up.

My problem is that I never liked Jimmy. From the signing ceremony where he rolled up to the College Football Hall of Fame in a stretch Hummer dressed like Joe Namath, I could tell that he just doesn't "get it". I thought that a little time under the dome would teach him what ND is all about, but he still has that cocky demeanor about him. At least he cut his hair. But he still looks like one of those jerks you see at a bar in a pink polo shirt with the collar popped and an aviation blonde hanging on his arm. " - Aflac

"I kind of wish Jimmy was more stereotypically German, but I'm not sure that would solve the problems that you guys are concerned with." - Klondike

"It seems like his ego is getting in his own way. That's not a big surprise there, and talking to a current student and people in adminitration confirms it. I'm not sure what the opposite of a self-fulfilling prophecy (if you expect everything to go wrong, it will) is, but that's Clausen's problem. He expects things to turn out OK, no matter what he does. "If I just keep scrambling backwards, eventually I'll find someone." "Rudolph's being triple-covered, but the play says to throw it to him, so I'll do that anyways."

Clausen has talent. The first half of the season showed that he probably has better touch on the deep pass than Quinn. But the playcalling in the last few games - all screens and dumpoffs over the middle - shows Weis's faith in Clausen's decision-making ability right now." - Kanka

"I've never really liked Jimmy either. He set himself up for a horrible situation, although now I'm thinking it's not all his fault. The people advising him are equally responsible for how he came off. I've been in a few classes with him and don't think he's very smart which is necessary for a QB. Maybe Charlie's offense is just too much for him. Between his looks and his social akwardness and lack of smarts, he comes off as a bit of an anti-Brady Quinn to me." - T

Goals and Standards for 2009

"This year has been one of constant "How did we get here?" moments.

My solutions:

1. Establish benchmarks for Charlie. For example
- Min. 7 wins this year.
- Team GPA >3.0
- You get the idea

2. Begin to develop Dane Crist. We have taken too many big losses on plays that require only some savvy form the QB. I would be hesitant to bench Jimmy at the start of the season. He does have quite a bit of experience. I am not opposed to phasing him out though. He doesn't seem to be the permanent solution.

3. Return to fundamentals. Blocking, tackling, discipline (read avoiding simple penalties), and more competition (for every spot on the field)." - Yonto

"I believe Weis is smart enough to surround himself with smart people. A majority of his coaching staff, including himself, is inexperienced. He brought in Tenuta to mentor Corwin Brown, and the defense improved. Now I think he needs to bring in an offensive guy. Yes, technically he already is the experienced offensive guy. But you can't mentor a new offensive coordinator AND mentor a new quarterbacks coach AND be a new head coach all at the same time. " - Kanka

"I'm very happy that Crist is waiting in the wings, and we should see an open competition before too long. I'm also happy that Crist was not inserted into the Syracuse game, as many fans in section 102 wanted. Of course, these were the same fans that didn't understand why Clausen wasn't throwing deep to Floyd on every play and were dreading Walker's every attempt. (If you, like them, weren't aware, Floyd was injured and Walker entered the game in the middle of a 12 for 13 streak.) Of course, I'll chalk some of those comments up to extra alcohol intake on a 19-degree day." - Kanka

"I went into this season without any expectations, because the team was still young. But now that "Weis's guys" will be experienced upperclassmen in 2009, if you want to raise the expectations, so be it." - Kanka

Cleveland Indians Sabermetrics 101: DIPS and RAR

In the last installment, we discovered that all pitchers' BABIP tend to fall in the .290 to .310. It follows then that if we want to gauge a pitcher's talent level, we need to look at everything besides balls hit into play. "Everything else" consists of strikeouts, walks, and homeruns, generally considered the "three true outcomes." There are a number of stats that study the three true outcomes, and together they are referred to as defense-independent pitching statistics - DIPS.

Before I go into examples of DIPS, I need to define a few terms.

replacement level: This is a popular concept among statheads. A replacement level player is one that is easily available as a mid-season free agent signing or a AAA call-up. Indians fans saw many replacement level players make starts for the Indians last year, Matt Ginter for example.

Runs Above Replacement, RAR: If "replacement level" is the amount of production you can get out of a player off the scrap heap, you would expect your regular players to be able to perform above that level. For pitchers, this means comparing the number of runs a pitcher gave up over a certain number of innings and comparing it to the number of runs a replacement player would have given up over the same number of innings. This is a tally of runs "saved" compared to a replacement pitcher, so a high positive number is better.

RAR for pitchers is calculated by taking the replacement level ERA, which is generally taken to be 5.75, subtracting the player's ERA, diving by 9 (since ERA is a measure of runs given up per 9 innings), and multiplied by innings pitched:

(5.75 - ERA) / 9 * IP

Wins Above Replacement, WAR: It's generally accepted in sabermetric circles that 10 runs is equal to 1 win. So, to find out how many Wins Above Replacement a pitcher earned, their RAR is divided by 10.

DIPS

Beyond the Box Score's article on this topic covers many pitcher stats. I'll let you look through those at your own leisure. The most advanced is a new stat called tERA. It takes the three true outcomes mentioned above, plus HBP and percentage of hits that were ground balls, line drives, infield flies, and outfield flies, plus takes the ballpark into factor. With input that complicated, it has to be accurate, right? Well, you and I can just take their word for it for the time being.

Since the goal for many sabermetricians is to take luck out of the equation, StatCorner - the same people that created tERA - also created xIP, expected Innings Pitched. Put simply, xIP tries to determine what each play "should have been" (ie, a screaming liner that was caught is changed to a hit, and a blooper that dropped is changed to an out) to give a more accurate look at the pitcher's workload.

Indians RAR/WAR in 2008

How did the Indians fare in 2008?

Pitcher	xIP	tERA	RAR	WAR
Cliff Lee	222	2.64	77	8
CC Sabathia	122.67	3.26	34	3
Fausto Carmona	121	4.64	15	1
Zach Jackson	57	3.81	12	1
Aaron Laffey	92.67	4.77	10	1
Paul Byrd	128	5.40	5	0
Jake Westbrook	33	4.40	5	0
Matt Ginter	21.33	3.76	5	0
Anthony Reyes	32	4.74	4	0
Scott Lewis	23	4.52	3	0
Jeremy Sowers	118	5.89	-2	0
Bryan Bullington	9.67	7.49	-2	0
Tom Mastny	1.67	23.83	-3	0
Total Result	982	79.13	162.45	16.24

As you can see, by this methodology Cliff Lee won eight games all by himself. Meanwhile, Matt Ginter, Bryan Bullington, and Tom Mastny were almost the definition of replacement level.

But that 162.45 total RAR means nothing without context. Cleveland finished fifth in the AL in RAR in 2008, just behind Boston and Tampa Bay, and just ahead of Anaheim and Minnesota. Toronto and the White Sox were almost 50 points ahead of their closest competitors, thanks to aces (Roy Halladay and Mark Buehrle) that scored in the 70s with a solid supporting staff. (Halladay and AJ Burnett are worth stars, but the rest of the Toronto rotation is very underrated.

Indians RAR/WAR in 2009

So, how do the Indians look in 2009? Will they need to add another starter?

The calculations for tERA and xIP are beyond my abilities at this point, so I cheated and used the innings pitched and ERA predictions from the 2009 Marcels. Here's what Marcel have to say for the guys currently on the 40 man roster.

Pitcher	IP	ERA	RAR	WAR
Cliff Lee	180	3.80	39	4
Fausto Carmona	135	4.13	24	2
Zach Jackson	83	4.72	9	1
Aaron Laffey	112	4.26	19	2
Jake Westbrook	93	4.16	16	2
Anthony Reyes	84	4.45	12	1
Scott Lewis	72	4.00	14	1
Jeremy Sowers	127	4.82	13	1
Total Result	886	34.34	147.03	14.7

Uh oh. That 147.03 RAR would be, by 2008 standards, ninth best in the AL. But there are a few things to remember. Marcel is admittedly a "dumb" system, and it looks at three years of data. That means it's taking Cliff Lee's disappointing 2007 and Fausto Carmona's nightmare 2006 into account. Also, RAR is dependent on innings pitched. So, once the Indians settle on their five best starters, and give them the innings that went to "experiments" last year, the numbers should improve.

The National Lampoon Sports Minute (Or So)

By Steve Hofstetter, Keith Alberstadt, Ryan Murphy, and Chris Strait

Florida won the SEC Championship game over Alabama. Bama fans haven't been that upset since they heard that "The Dukes of Hazard" wasn't real.

Elsewhere in college football, Oklahoma dismantled Missouri on Saturday. It was such a ruthless punishment, fans thought the BCS was playing Texas. The BCS refuses to institute a playoff system - because they don't want to force football players to miss the classes they planned on skipping anyway.

The chairman of the Chicago Cubs said he expects the team to be sold by spring training. And that will fix everything.

And of course, O.J. Simpson was sentenced to prison. It took so long for true justice to be served, we thought the courts were being run by the BCS.

The New York Giants won the NFC East division. They celebrated by dumping Gatorade on Plaxico Burress' smoldering leg.

Manny Pacquiao's domination of his former hero Oscar de la Hoya bore a striking resemblance to de la Hoya's domination of his own hero Julio Cesar Chavez. It's so similar, Pacquiao has also put out a lousy CD.

The Arizona Cardinals clinched the NFC West. After the game was in the bag, Kurt Warner asked if his team wanted paper or plastic.

Angels reliever Francisco Rodriguez met with the New York Mets about coming to their bullpen. Or as they call it, where ERAs go to die.

And Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford will have surgery on his hand. The good news is that it's his non-throwing hand. The bad news is that the surgeon is a Texas fan.

For more of the Sports Minute (Or So), visit minuteorso.com

Notre Dame Winter Sports Schedule

Are you like me? Now that you're no longer on campus, you have trouble following Notre Dame basketball and hockey? It's not like football, playing every Saturday. That's why I compiled this combined schedule for Notre Dame hockey, men's basketball, and women's basketball. As you can see, the #1 hockey team won't be on national TV during the regular season (at least according to ESPN.com), but they are often on South Bend's regional Comcast Sports, and those games are often syndicated to Sports Time Ohio in the Cleveland area. So, as they say, check your local listings.

All times are Eastern. Once I figure out how to format the times properly, I'll do so.


Direct Link to Google Spreadsheet

It's Ballot Time Again!

(I said it with more enthusiasm this year in the hopes of improving voter turnout.)

Once again, it's time to vote for the KankaNation Hall of Fame.

List up to 10 people you think should be in the KankaNation Hall of Fame, and email to kanka@kankasports.zzn.com by 5 pm Eastern on December 31.
Those who receive a certain percentage of the vote (depends on how many ballots are received; usually 66-75%) will join the Classes of 2004-2008. Those who received multiple votes last year will receive one carryover vote this year.

To view past inductees and voting results, click one of the links below:
Class of 2004
Class of 2005
Class of 2006
Class of 2007
Class of 2008

Cleveland Indians Sabermetrics 101: BABIP

Inspired by this post at Beyond the Boxscore, here's my first "homework assignment" for Saber-Friendly Blogging 101.

Batting Average on Balls In Play, BABIP, is essentially batting average for everything except strikeouts and walks. I'll let the article above, Wikipedia, and the Sabermetric Wiki give you the details.

BABIP for hitters relies on many factors and will vary from player to player. But for pitchers, BABIP always seems to fall in the .290 to .310 range. What does this mean? If a pitcher is widely outside of that range one year, you can expect them to regress back to those numbers the following year, and their overall performance should follow. (I'm sure there are cases of certain pitchers having consistently high or low BABIP numbers, but I don't know of any offhand.)

So, how did Indians pitchers fare in 2008? To find out, you can check The Hardball Times or Fangraphs. Or, if you'd rather do the work yourself (or, like me, didn't find out about the THT and Fangraphs page until after doing the work), you need to start with their 2008 stats.

If you're not up to the task of setting up a MySQL database of baseball stats, you can simply copy and paste them from Baseball-Reference's 2008 Indians page into Excel. To determine At Bats, I took BFP (Batters Faced by Pitcher) minus Bases on Balls and Hit By Pitch. (I assumed IBB totals were already included in IBB.) I also ignored Sacrifice Flies because that information wasn't readily available. My results were almost identical to those from the Hardball Times. Fangraphs' were a little different, but as the Sabermetric Wiki mentions, there are several variations to the formula.

Player	AB	BABIP	ERA
Rich Rundles	19	.385	1.80
Tom Mastny	89	.344	10.80
Edward Mujica	157	.328	6.75
Rafael Betancourt	284	.311	5.07
Zach Jackson	221	.310	5.60
Masahide Kobayashi	229	.306	4.53
Rafael Perez	288	.304	3.54
Cliff Lee	852	.301	2.54
Jeremy Sowers	491	.301	5.58
Jensen Lewis	260	.300	3.82
Aaron Laffey	369	.294	4.23
Fausto Carmona	470	.294	5.44
Jake Westbrook	131	.262	3.12
Anthony Reyes	129	.259	1.83
Scott Lewis	91	.222	2.63
Jonathan Meloan	5	.000	0.00

I included At Bats in this table to illustrate a point: in general, as at bats increased, the pitcher's numbers moved more to the .290-.310 range. Rich Rundles and Jon Meloan only faced a handful of batters, so their numbers can largely be ignored. But you could almost argue the same for Scott Lewis and Tom Mastny.

Now, this table is good news for Tom Mastny and Ed Mujica, and even Rafael Betancourt and Zach Jackson to some extent. All posted high ERA and high BABIP. But their BABIP should go down in 2009, and their other stats should improve as a result. Conversely, Anthony Reyes and Scott Lewis will probably see their spectacular 2008 numbers fall back to earth. Jake Westbrook will probably see a decline as well, once he's finally healthy.

If BABIP holds true, that middle group should stay about the same. That's great news for Cliff Lee, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis, as well as Aaron Laffey and Masahide Kobayashi to some extent. But it's also bad news for Jeremy Sowers and Fausto Carmona.

But BABIP is by no means a be-all, end-all predictor. For example, while Rafael Betancourt was on the edge of the expected BABIP range, his ERA was abnormally high (for him) due to a lingering injury that kept him from throwing his fastball, which is his best pitch. And while Cliff Lee was right in the middle in terms of BABIP, he'll still be hard-pressed to repeat the phenomenal year he had in 2008. Still, his BABIP numbers do show that 2008 wasn't entirely luck, and that Lee should still do very well in 2009.